Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[Peter Mugridge]

14,542 today ( with 273,100 tests indicated ).

Just how much catching up do they still have to do?

I'm not sure I like an exactly round figure for the tests either - it looks a bit "guesswork" although there is of course no reason why it couldn't be that round for real.

 

[HSTEd]

14,542 today ( with 273,100 tests indicated ).

Just how much catching up do they still have to do?

Well as the fault will have truncated all tests above ~65000 from Pillar 2.... a hell of a lot potentially.

 

[Yew]

You have said that you believe the effects of Covid are overstated, and that "cases" of Covid are overstated.

If this is true, it is very easy to say that Covid has been beaten.

Try getting people to listen to anything though

 

[Domh245]

14,542 today ( with 273,100 tests indicated ).

Just how much catching up do they still have to do?

There's a bit of a tail to the data with new cases being added continuously back to the 22nd, but (England data only) 75% of the announced cases were from the last 3 days with almost 5600 coming from samples taken on Sunday.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Well as the fault will have truncated all tests above ~65000 from Pillar 2.... a hell of a lot potentially.

So rather more than the 16,000 ( or 48,000 depending on where you read it ) missing infections that have been officially admitted to, then?

 

[Richard Scott]

You have said that you believe the effects of Covid are overstated, and that "cases" of Covid are overstated.

If this is true, it is very easy to say that Covid has been beaten.

It's not Covid anyway, that's what you develop from the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If asymptomatic don't have Covid-19.

 

[bramling]

I disagree, "lockdown worked, I'm amazing, I beat Covid" is a wonderful message for any politician to deliver. The incentive is to downplay Covid, not build it up.

The problem is that the current theme is it’s very conspicuous that we *haven’t* beaten it, at least not in a way which would reflect success on those trying to “beat it”.

Apart from the continuing aggro over masks (which has replaced toilet rolls as being people’s comfort blanket, and for many people quite clearly focusses on “it’s not fair” rather than any rational reason), the public mood is very clearly changing now, and quite quickly at it.

Likewise the political system is starting to reflect this - it’s quite obvious there’s a lot more than chatter going on behind the political scenes now.

Meanwhile another shambles over testing plays out on the Covid stage.

 

[30907]

It's not Covid anyway, that's what you develop from the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If asymptomatic don't have Covid-19.

But you can transmit the virus, and that is important to the wider community even if you have no symptoms.

 

[Bantamzen]

But you can transmit the virus, and that is important to the wider community even if you have no symptoms.

I think you mean might be able to, an asymptomatic person may have already killed the virus and be sheading just protein particles.

 

[jumble]

I've said all along there will be no "second wave" (as defined by as spike in the death rate more or less as high as the first) in any similar country to the UK with a death rate above (pref well above) 500 per million. Note I am not saying there will not be bumps and dips in the graph curves. Anyway, nothing has happened so far to make me change my mind. I'm not that interested in the infection rate, only the death rate, and one does not necessarily lead to the other, not in a European country anyway. The link between the infection rate and the death rate appears to be loosening, I'm not sure why, it may be that our hospitals are getting better at treating it, but one has to wonder, if the death rate drops to say 1 in 400 or 500 why are we persisting with these massively damaging measures to our society and economy ?
Note for the timings on the graphs, if someone is going to die from Covid the average length of time is about 18 days and here are the infection rates and death rates for France to the 17th August (Spain follows a similar pattern) :

View attachment 82417

Could one of these people who think there will be a second wave please explain to me why, as our lockdown was eased off (unofficially at first - from only a few weeks into it - but then officially) our death rate has not only failed to go up, but has actually fell, and has continued to fall despite even the pubs being reopened ! :

View attachment 82418

I will be very interested in seeing what happens in London in the next few weeks
Despite the fact that loads of people cram onto the tube and busses we had the BLM and Corbyn demos schools opening beach at Bournemouth and there is pretty much zero mask enforcement by either the authorities or the shaming Karens the rate of hospitalisation and deaths are way lower than Manchester or Newcastle
(I am ignoring cases as there is no way of comparing owing to test availability and false positives etc)

Manchester hospitalisations//ventilators 30% of peak
London hospitalisations//ventilators 6% of peak

Anyone care to speculate why there is a 5 fold difference

 

[jtuk]

But you can transmit the virus, and that is important to the wider community even if you have no symptoms.

Evidence is actually that asymptomatic transmission is so rare that it's not worth worrying about

 

[Yew]

I will be very interested in seeing what happens in London in the next few weeks
Despite the fact that loads of people cram onto the tube and busses we had the BLM and Corbyn demos schools opening beach at Bournemouth and there is pretty much zero mask enforcement by either the authorities or the shaming Karens the rate of hospitalisation and deaths are way lower than Manchester or Newcastle
(I am ignoring cases as there is no way of comparing owing to test availability and false positives etc)

Manchester hospitalisations//ventilators 30% of peak
London hospitalisations//ventilators 6% of peak

Anyone care to speculate why there is a 5 fold difference

London could be closer to the community immunity theshold? A higher percentage of office workers who can work from home, compared to more physical industries in the north?

 

[Domh245]

Manchester hospitalisations//ventilators 30% of peak
London hospitalisations//ventilators 6% of peak

Anyone care to speculate why there is a 5 fold difference

I expect it's a combination of London being especially hard hit during the peak (~1000 on ventilators during peak for London, compared to ~300 across the entire North West) meaning even for the same numbers now London looks much better comparatively, and London generally being quieter than Manchester relative to pre-pandemic baselines. Google's mobility reports show that London to be 39% down in retail (vs 33% in Manchester) and 46% down in workplaces (vs 36% for Manchester)

 

[Bantamzen]

Things are getting worse, taken from the BBC News Live Feed this morning:

Key NHS tests - including for coronavirus - are under threat, after a supply chain failure at a major diagnostics company.

Swiss pharmaceutical firm Roche said problems with a move to a new warehouse had led to a "very significant" drop in its processing capacity.

A spokesman said Covid-19 tests would be prioritised, but it could take two weeks to fix the issue.

The backlog could also affect tests for conditions including cancer and heart disease.

But what is more concerning is that tests for cancer & heart disease are being put off in favour of covid. That is another worrying aspect, more potentially seriously ill being put aside.

 

[jtuk]

London could be closer to the community immunity theshold? A higher percentage of office workers who can work from home, compared to more physical industries in the north?

That, and they got hit first before Boris started losing his mind

 

[Richard Scott]

But you can transmit the virus, and that is important to the wider community even if you have no symptoms.

That may well be true just would rather people used correct terms, only point I was making there.

Things are getting worse, taken from the BBC News Live Feed this morning:



But what is more concerning is that tests for cancer & heart disease are being put off in favour of covid. That is another worrying aspect, more potentially seriously ill being put aside.

This is a big concern that some of us have been trying to point out but to some people, our politicians included, that doesn't matter as long as we're seen to be doing something with this, seemingly not quite so dangerous, virus. I'll take the virus any day over cancer or heart disease.

 

[scarby]

I will be very interested in seeing what happens in London in the next few weeks
Despite the fact that loads of people cram onto the tube and busses we had the BLM and Corbyn demos schools opening beach at Bournemouth and there is pretty much zero mask enforcement by either the authorities or the shaming Karens the rate of hospitalisation and deaths are way lower than Manchester or Newcastle
(I am ignoring cases as there is no way of comparing owing to test availability and false positives etc)

Manchester hospitalisations//ventilators 30% of peak
London hospitalisations//ventilators 6% of peak

Anyone care to speculate why there is a 5 fold difference

While not exactly the same, there has been a similar development in Stockholm/Sweden, where hospitalisations and intensive care patients have basically flatlined since they fell off a cliff in June, and deaths have remained at a very low level indeed.

I haven't followed it closely, but haven't deaths remained low in all European countries that were hard-hit?

It's a massive and hugely significant development for the better, but as for speculating, when I asked a friend in Stockholm who follows things more closely than I do, he said: "We just don't know - it's a bit like dark matter; even the experts don't know why."

The media really isn't helping things at all anywhere, having swopped their headline/story figures from "deaths" to "cases" - after all, "3 new deaths" doesn't have the same scary ring at "3,500 new cases".

 

[geoffk]

This year's Summer Night Concert from Vienna, postponed from May or June to September, was shown on TV. The concert wasn't open to the public as it usually is – the park gates remaining closed - and only a small number of tickets were raffled off in advance. Nevertheless the small outdoor audience was not socially-distanced, nor was the orchestra, which performed under a marquee. Austria seems to have similar rules on face-covering indoors to those we have in UK but its borders are open to most visitors from elsewhere in Europe.

 

[kristiang85]

I expect it's a combination of London being especially hard hit during the peak (~1000 on ventilators during peak for London, compared to ~300 across the entire North West) meaning even for the same numbers now London looks much better comparatively, and London generally being quieter than Manchester relative to pre-pandemic baselines. Google's mobility reports show that London to be 39% down in retail (vs 33% in Manchester) and 46% down in workplaces (vs 36% for Manchester)

If you're looking at raw numbers rather than comparison to the peak, London is still low.

I'm definitely on board with the immunity idea - the worst outbreaks in April were in the South East, and the harsher lockdown did stop the virus spreading through the north at that point. But now it's unlocked, London has more immunity and the North doesnt.

Although London has been quieter in comparison to London-normal, I can't imagine the density is much lower than the likes of Manchester.

 

[Domh245]

I'm definitely on board with the immunity idea - the worst outbreaks in April were in the South East, and the harsher lockdown did stop the virus spreading through the north at that point. But now it's unlocked, London has more immunity and the North doesnt.

I was onboard with the herd immunity idea until I actually looked at the numbers. London was very hard hit, but the North West was also hit relatively hard, but slightly later (peaks of ~800 cases both early and late April in the North West, compared to London's singular peak of ~1000 at the very start of April) - It is quite plausible that the bulk of the earlier cases in the North West came from different areas which has led to herd immunity in some places and not in others, but I'm doubtful looking at how relatively widespread the cases are at the moment. It could certainly be a factor in the North East, but generally speaking it's the North West that is being the 'problem region' despite a relatively hard first hit.

Another potential factor is that the North is simply ahead in the curve. Cases nationally were low when the restrictions began to be eased, but it only takes a region to have a slightly higher than average case count (and the right conditions) for it to grow back to higher numbers sooner than a region with low case numbers, although this is slightly thrown off again by the North West having been an issue for weeks already, whilst London (and the rest of the country) hasn't really caught up

 

[Bletchleyite]

Although London has been quieter in comparison to London-normal, I can't imagine the density is much lower than the likes of Manchester.

And London is not short of students, who seem to be the main driver of the Northern outbreaks at present.

 

[Crossover]

The media really isn't helping things at all anywhere, having swopped their headline/story figures from "deaths" to "cases" - after all, "3 new deaths" doesn't have the same scary ring at "3,500 new cases".

Agreed. The meda were all over things back in April time at the height of it and then as things waned over the summer, they were nowhere near as interested and headlines turned to other things. Now there are some rising numbers (mainly of positive tests) the media are stirring the pot once again

 

[duncanp]

And London is not short of students, who seem to be the main driver of the Northern outbreaks at present.

Students in London tend to be more evenly spread all over the city, rather than concentrated in certain areas as seems to be the cases in places such as Manchester, Nottingham and Newcastle.

I think high rents in Central London mean that some students are forced to look for accommodation further away from the centre, and use the tube to commute to the campus.

 

[Yew]

And London is not short of students, who seem to be the main driver of the Northern outbreaks at present.

True, but It'd be interesting to see it as a percentage of the population, I wonder if the story would be different.

 

[takno]

I was onboard with the herd immunity idea until I actually looked at the numbers. London was very hard hit, but the North West was also hit relatively hard, but slightly later (peaks of ~800 cases both early and late April in the North West, compared to London's singular peak of ~1000 at the very start of April) - It is quite plausible that the bulk of the earlier cases in the North West came from different areas which has led to herd immunity in some places and not in others, but I'm doubtful looking at how relatively widespread the cases are at the moment. It could certainly be a factor in the North East, but generally speaking it's the North West that is being the 'problem region' despite a relatively hard first hit.

Another potential factor is that the North is simply ahead in the curve. Cases nationally were low when the restrictions began to be eased, but it only takes a region to have a slightly higher than average case count (and the right conditions) for it to grow back to higher numbers sooner than a region with low case numbers, although this is slightly thrown off again by the North West having been an issue for weeks already, whilst London (and the rest of the country) hasn't really caught up

As I'm sure you know it's a lot more complex than a simple figure of herd immunity being reached. The opening of schools and universities has completely changed the networks of people who are meeting and spreading the disease, and the students in question may well be from less-affected areas, and often from the kinds of middle class families which were less likely to be exposed in the initial outbreak. At a fundamental level these kinds of movements should only be a short term factor, and once the disease has worked its way through these new networks we should see a fall back to lower levels. It's exactly the same as reasons why dozens of viruses spread massively every year during September and October even though the weather has barely turned.

In terms of peaks in the North-West, the fact that the peaks were later is significant, because there will have been more testing and awareness leading to higher levels of diagnosis, and you are reaching a stage where the disease was running rampant through care homes, so the cases in the North-West may have been heavily focused on that rather closed network.

 

[kristiang85]

I think high rents in Central London mean that some students are forced to look for accommodation further away from the centre, and use the tube to commute to the campus.

If anything that's worse, as instead of all mingling with each other on campus (assuming the halls are on it too, or at least in close proximity) they are spreading round London.

Although I think some London universities don't have the students back yet? And there's probably many more international students in London, who won't be there now (certainly I know Imperial and UCL have been pretty badly hit by this).

 

[takno]

Although I think some London universities don't have the students back yet? And there's probably many more international students in London, who won't be there now (certainly I know Imperial and UCL have been pretty badly hit by this).

https://www.theguardian.com/educati...ruit-record-numbers-of-international-students suggests that this hasn't really been a factor, in spite of what was expected earlier in the year. Not sure whether Imperial and UCL are outliers, or whether they have ended up getting the international students in after all.

 

[kristiang85]

https://www.theguardian.com/educati...ruit-record-numbers-of-international-students suggests that this hasn't really been a factor, in spite of what was expected earlier in the year. Not sure whether Imperial and UCL are outliers, or whether they have ended up getting the international students in after all.

It doesn't specify whether this is online or in person teaching though - which makes a difference to how full campuses are. 30% of London students are from abroad (the UK average is 20%).

I work for a smaller university (but we don't offer undergrad courses), and we've had a record year for student recruitment - but we aren't open for face-to-face teaching.

 

[duncanp]

Worth noting that according to the latest figures, the local authority in England with the greatest percentage increase in their infection rate this week is Winchester, in Hampshire.

Last week, the weekly infection rate in Winchester was 2.41 cases per 100,000, this week it is 39.42 cases per 100,000, which represents an increase of over 1500%.

Gloucester has a similar percentage increase, with the rate going from 2.32 last week to 37.13 this week.

All the wards in Winchester and Gloucester which have cases reported this week had no cases at all last week.

As there are universities in both these cities, it seems reasonable to suppose that the return of students has had something to do with the rather sharp increases.

This is not to say that students are being irresponsible, it is rather that as an earlier poster has said, there is a new network of people spreading the disease.

Any measures to slow the spead must be carefully targeted, such as moving to online learning where practical (even if only for a few weeks), reducing the amount of time spent on campuses, and reducing the amount of mixing going on between students.

Perhaps any of the students who are studying computer science could even design a proper database system to process the track and trace data.

I am sure that they can't do any worse than the current system, which seems to have been designed on the back of a fag packet, and put together using toilet rolls and sticky back plastic, just like they used to do on Blue Peter.

 

[Domh245]

As I'm sure you know it's a lot more complex than a simple figure of herd immunity being reached. The opening of schools and universities has completely changed the networks of people who are meeting and spreading the disease, and the students in question may well be from less-affected areas, and often from the kinds of middle class families which were less likely to be exposed in the initial outbreak. At a fundamental level these kinds of movements should only be a short term factor, and once the disease has worked its way through these new networks we should see a fall back to lower levels. It's exactly the same as reasons why dozens of viruses spread massively every year during September and October even though the weather has barely turned.

In terms of peaks in the North-West, the fact that the peaks were later is significant, because there will have been more testing and awareness leading to higher levels of diagnosis, and you are reaching a stage where the disease was running rampant through care homes, so the cases in the North-West may have been heavily focused on that rather closed network.

Agreed that it's all a very complex issue, and whilst the return of schools and universities (especially the latter) will be driving the increase in cases, the North West has had particularly high case rates since at least August, so Schools/universities aren't the only factor there.

As for the second point, the second peak (although peak is a generous term, there's not much of a decrease from the first, it's more of a ridge I suppose!) Pillar 2 testing was only just breaking through the 20,000 capacity barrier, so whilst there may have been more testing capacity and tests done, I don't think it's enough of a factor to explain the 'double' peak. As a comparison, London's single day peak (1068 on 2/4) had a corresponding testing number of 11,947 whilst the North West's (873 on 6/4 & 912 on 22/4) had testing numbers of 13,238 & 22,814 respectively.

The care homes argument is a fair point, and is probably a large driver of the discrepancy, I don't think there's that many care homes in Greater London as compared to elsewhere in the country.