Cloud Strife
Established Member
- Joined
- 25 Feb 2014
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@Stephen42 we can't keep giving everyone boosters forever.
Why? We give them every year for flu...
@Stephen42 we can't keep giving everyone boosters forever.
Longer term, it shouldn't be necessary to do this annually for Sars-CoV-2. There are fundamentally completely different reasons why we give a flu vaccine every year.Why? We give them every year for flu...
However in the short and perhaps medium term I don't object to Sars-CoV-2 boosters being offered annually to vulnerable people but this should NOT be done on the basis of claiming that there is "substantial waning immunity" or any other such misleading claims.
Your assertion that it's the same principle demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding about the key differences between these viruses.
I have no problem with free boosters being given to vulnerable people in the short and perhaps medium term, but based on what I've read, the effectiveness of doing so longer term is questionable and more research is needed in this area.If people want boosters for life, could they not pay for them themselves? I think that would be the fairest way.
Sorry if my first message was unclear. The UK HSA study as part of the vaccine surveillance report was a test-negative case-control study linking hospital activity and vaccination records to estimate vaccine effectiveness with a breakdown for both number of doses and time since last dose. That evaluated hundred of thousands of PCR tests leading to the result that risk of covid hospitalisation (1 - vaccine effectiveness) for acute respiratory infection with either oxygen, venitliation or ICU care required doubled after more than 15 weeks compared with 2 to 5 weeks for over 65s. Most people would call a doubling of risk substantial.She claims that immunity is "waning" but other experts have questioned these claims.
Yes and vaccinations were important, but you can't keep telling people that 3 doses isn't enough, 4 doses isn't enough, 5 isn't enough and so on.
The problem with statistics is that there are so many variables and so many ways these things can be measured, so many opinions could be "confirmed" by looking at certain statistics in a particular way.
Whatever your argument, it is misleading for her say there is a "substantial amount of waning immunity" when talking about people who have already had 3 doses of vaccine, and who are inevitably going to be exposed to and infected by the virus at some point, and who will need a natural exposure to develop the best possible immunity. Whatever excuses you want to make for her is your choice but it is misleading in the opinion of experts, including those who know more about viruses than she does.
I'm not really sure what you are asking for but antibody levels are entirely expected to "wane" and it is not a cause for concern. By all means constantly boost people but not everyone who is eligible for constant boosters is going to agree to be constantly boosted and we have to respect that. There can be no further restrictions and people cannot be forced into constant boosters either.
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Waning antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 – Don't panic
Most European countries were taken by surprise by the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 in spring 2020 resulting in a large first wave of COVID-19 cases that was finally controlled through harsh public health measures. Due to the lack of testing capacities and awareness in the population at the time...www.thelancet.com
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The Good Part About ‘Waning’ Immunity
You might have fewer antibodies now. But they’re better than the ones you started with.www.theatlantic.com
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Covid-19 vaccination: evidence of waning immunity is overstated
The case for universal boosters is weak, and the benefits are unclear The resurgence of covid-19 in high income countries with advanced vaccine programmes has raised concerns about the durability of vaccine effectiveness, especially against the more transmissible delta variant. This has led...www.bmj.com
We don't give EVERYONE flu jabs every year just the vulnerable and those in the care sector.Why? We give them every year for flu...
We don't give EVERYONE flu jabs every year just the vulnerable and those in the care sector.
Flu jabs are available to all adults.We don't give EVERYONE flu jabs every year just the vulnerable and those in the care sector.
But not for free.Flu jabs are available to all adults.
Sorry I will rephrase that. We don't give everyone a free flu jab every year, just the most vulnerableFlu jabs are available to all adults.
Looks like the SAGE panic-mongers are back: Communist Party committee member Susan Michie claims 'lameduck' Tories will 'sit on their hands' and 'let Covid rip' as virus cases are set to hit 350,000 every day next week
A Communist-supporting SAGE advisor has claimed that 'lameduck' Tories will 'sit on their hands' and 'let Covid rip' as virus cases are set to hit 350,000 every day next week.
- Professor warned new variants that are 'more infectious' will lead to unnecessary deaths and hospitalisations
- One in 16 people in the worst-hit parts of the UK were carrying the virus in the week ending June 29
- Latest ONS report found the share of people testing positive for Covid continued to increase in all age groups
- UK's fifth wave is being driven by Omicron sub-strains BA.4 and BA.5, with latter regarded as most infectious
Susan Michie, the Professor of Health Psychology at University College London, warned new variants that are 'even more infectious' will lead to unnecessary deaths and hospitalisations.
More than 2.7million Britons were infected with Covid last week and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) weekly infection survey found up to one in 16 people in the worst-hit parts of the UK were carrying the virus in the week ending June 29 as cases rose nationally by about a fifth.
Professor Michie told The Mirror: 'We don't have a public health policy for Covid right now and if we don't act, we'll get variants that are even more infectious and these will lead to increased hospitalisations and deaths.
'The number of people with long Covid will increase significantly beyond the current two million and the country will be continuously disrupted with some sectors in danger of grinding to a standstill in the Autumn.
'The government's policy seems to be, "Shut your eyes and let it rip". But the NHS is on its knees and public health experts, SAGE and Independent SAGE have been predicting this since July last year, so it shouldn't come as a surprise.'
On Friday, rail operators including TransPennine Express and Avanti West Coast warned they will have to cancel services due to staff shortages – with the former blaming 'continued increased levels' of sickness amid spiking Covid rates.
And the most recent official Department for Education estimates revealed that 6.5 per cent of teachers and school leaders were absent for any reason from open schools on June 23, up from 5.5 per cent on June 9 - while the figure for teaching assistants and other staff was 5.5 per cent on June 23, up from 5 per cent on June 9.
The Association of School and College Leaders chief Geoff Barton said schools are 'being hit by staff and pupil absence caused by Covid' while accepting that 'we need as a society to learn to live with Covid'; and medical groups said the latest wave of infections was 'adding enormous pressure on an already overstretched service'.
Meanwhile GP practices in London, Cambridgeshire and Devon have warned of severe staff absences, with the latter's local medical committee issuing its first ever county-wide 'red alert' amid escalating pressure on services.
Hospitality chiefs are also concerned - with Night Time Industries Association boss Michael Kill saying businesses must 'tread carefully' amid concerns that the Government 'could plunge us into uncertainty at any point'.
Covid staff sickness has caused misery for Britons during previous waves of the pandemic, including at Christmas when there were mass rail cancellations, cancelled operations, school closures and overflowing rubbish bins.
Friday's ONS report found the share of people testing positive for Covid continued to increase in all age groups and regions, with rates highest among 25 to 34-year-olds and 50 to 69-year-olds.
Britain's fifth wave is being driven by the Omicron sub-strains BA.4 and BA.5, with the latter regarded as the most infectious variant of the virus yet. But they are both as mild as their parent strain, which has meant ICU admissions and deaths have remained flat despite cases rising for weeks.
Total hospital admissions are climbing, with patient levels nearing the peak reached during the previous wave of infections in spring. However, only a fraction are primarily ill with the virus, suggesting the rise is a reflection of high rates of transmission in the community, rather than severe disease.
And police forces appear to have avoided any recent issues, with a source telling MailOnline that there are no absence issues or Covid impacts being reported at a national level – and a 'normal service' is still being provided
And Linda Hausmanis, chief executive of the Institute of Workplace and Facilities Management, told MailOnline: 'At a time when thousands of us are jetting off to destinations with far higher infection rates, it is hard to argue that British offices are not amongst the safest places to be in the world today. It is right that employers and employees continue to take a precautionary approach, and to continue to isolate if they test positive. However, with effective ventilation and cleaning protocols in place, most offices and workplaces are among our safest spaces.'
Michael Kill, chief executive of the Night Time Industries Association, told MailOnline: 'We are still having challenges with Covid absences within the workforce, but it would be somewhat short sighted to think that given the Covid measures put in place by the Government last year, both in legislation and public rhetoric, we are able to risk lowering our guard further.
'We have learnt to live with the virus in many respects, but as one of the sectors at the sharpest end, we have to tread carefully in the knowledge that policy makers could plunge us into uncertainty at any point, and according to freedom of information requests for little or no reason, which would be catastrophic for the sector.
'Testing is onerous on staff as well as employer as a cost, and as much as staff shortages or Covid absence is limiting revenue, the Government have created a fear with rising rates, contrary to how many may feel it should be managed.'
And Mr Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: 'Both pupil absence and staff absence increased in the latest set of attendance data put out by the Department for Education.
'It estimated that 6.5 per cent of teachers and school leaders and 5.5 per cent of teaching assistants and other staff were absent, up from 5.5 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.
'The data does not give the reasons for absence but the fact that this happens during a spike in Covid cases nationally is obviously not a coincidence and chimes with what we are hearing from schools that they are being hit by staff and pupil absence caused by Covid.
'It is particularly worrying that this is happening during the summer when one might expect infections to be on the decrease and begs the question of what is going to happen during the autumn and winter.'
He added that school leaders fear that there will be 'wave after wave of infections causing more disruption to education as staff and pupils have to stay at home because they are ill'.
Mr Barton told MailOnline: 'It is not just the educational impact that we are concerned about but the effect on health as well with the apparent likelihood that individuals may contract the illness repeatedly. We are not persuaded that the government's policy of ignoring the problem is adequate.
'We fully accept that we need as a society to learn to live with Covid and we are not for a moment suggesting a return to a full battery of control measures.
'But some sensible safeguards and support – such as improved ventilation systems, the availability of free Covid tests, and financial support for schools and colleges with the cost of supply teachers – would help to mitigate some of the impact of Covid on the education system.'
Meanwhile, Professor Phil Banfield, the British Medical Association council chair, said the organisation was calling for people to wear masks in enclosed spaces - and fears the latest wave will have repercussions for years.
He told MailOnline: 'For the doctors and NHS staff working tirelessly day in day out, Covid most certainly has not gone away as this latest wave is adding enormous pressure on an already overstretched service.
'As we have seen in previous waves, staff working in healthcare settings are at greater risk of being exposed to the virus and it is absolutely crucial both patients and NHS staff are adequately protected at this time.
'Bringing back mask wearing for patients, ensuring regular NHS staff testing and making sure that staff have access to high quality PPE are all important measures that should be taken to mitigate risks including for those who are clinically vulnerable.
'The Government has a responsibility to ensure that the public are still well informed about the risks of Covid, particularly when the latest ONS data shows infections continue to rise across the UK.
'In the absence of strong public health messaging, we believe it is important that the public exercises a cautious approach at this time, such as wearing masks in enclosed spaces, and takes measures to limit their exposure to the virus where possible. This is not just about weathering the immediate pressures on our health service.
'We have seen first-hand the long-term impact that Covid has on the health service, the health of staff and the public, as the impact of this wave of infections will have repercussions for months and years to come.
'It is therefore crucial that the Government has a long-term strategy to deal with both the immediate pressure of waves of heightened infection rates and the longer-term impact of Covid, underpinned by appropriate investment. Part of this must include a reversal of their decision to end Special Enhanced Leave for NHS staff absent with long Covid.'
The ONS estimated that 2.15million people had the virus in England last week, the equivalent of one in 25 people — up from one in 30 the previous week.
In Wales, the figure stood at 149,700, or roughly one in 20, and in Northern Ireland it was 98,400, or one in 19.
Scotland had the highest rates, with one in 17 believed to have been infected.
Friday's national infection estimate is the highest number since late April, at the end of the BA.2 wave which saw cases soar to record highs.
But there are already signs the latest surge is 'topping off', according to Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, an eminent statistician from Cambridge University.
Sounding an optimistic tone, Sir David told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme that while the infection rate is 'high', it is 'not as high as it has been'.
Cases reached record levels in March, when there were more than 4million people infected in a single week.
The ONS report, considered the best barometre of the outbreak since free-testing was axed, is based on tens of thousands of random swabs each week.
Covid hospitalisations have risen sharply in recent weeks, in line with cases.
There are now nearly 2,000 admissions for the virus each day in England — around the same level as in spring when cases hit record highs.
But only a third of NHS Covid patients are primarily ill with the virus, which has been attributed to the milder Omicron sub-strains, growing natural immunity and vaccines.
Another promising sign is that ICU admissions and deaths involving Covid have remained broadly flat.
There were 232 Covid patients on mechanical ventilator beds — reserved for those most sick — on July 7.
That was up 10 per cent week-on-week and the highest number for two months, although much lower than early pandemic peaks — when there were as many as 3,000 on ventilators.
Latest ONS data on Covid deaths shows there are just 25 fatalities per day in which the virus was the primary cause of death.
However, both figures may increase in the coming weeks because of how long it can take for infected patients to become severely ill.
Meanwhile, rail passengers were left fuming by the prospect of cancellations over the weekend, with one saying on social media: 'How do you know all these staff are going to be off sick this weekend? Amazing that isn't it. Absolute joke of a company.'
Another added: 'All trains cancelled between Glasgow and Manchester Pic now for July 8, with TransPennine. Same excuses. You're no longer fit for purpose. Do as Boris has done, throw the towel in.' A third added: 'What a way to run a railway.'
And Anthony Smith, chief executive of the independent watchdog Transport Focus, told MailOnline: 'It's better for some services to be temporarily withdrawn on a planned basis than to have chaotic last-minute cancellations.
'These are harder for passengers to deal with and more likely to lead to overcrowding. Passengers need clear, reliable information to plan their journeys. Anyone who has already bought tickets must be told and offered alternatives or their money back where applicable.'
Avanti West Coast, which operates between London, Birmingham, Manchester and Glasgow, has also warned services may be cancelled at short notice this weekend due to staff shortages, with trains expected to be busy.
Passengers using Avanti are also furious, with one tweeting: 'It's worrying to know that chaos like this could cause me to lose my holiday completely.' Another added: 'Any danger of you not cancelling a train to Glasgow today?'
Bus networks are also being affected, with Stagecoach reporting a 'national staff shortage' — and cancellations confirmed this morning due to illness in the likes of Lancaster, Stroud, Guildford, Basingstoke and Chichester.
The warnings over travel disruption will bring back memories of the mass cancellations on rail networks over the Christmas period as huge numbers of staff fell ill with Covid and operators brought in reduced timetables.
It comes as top experts warned the knock-on effects of lockdown may be killing more than 1,000 people a week — more than three time more than Covid itself.
Separate ONS figures show there have been around 1,500 'excess' deaths every week for the past three weeks in England and Wales. These are the number of fatalities above and beyond what would normally be expected at this time of year.
Only a small fraction of them — around 300 — are from Covid, which has led to calls for an urgent investigation into what is behind the excess mortality.
We don't give EVERYONE flu jabs every year just the vulnerable and those in the care sector.
Oh dear, the SAGE and Fake SAGE doom mongers, including Comrade Michie of course, are banging on about COVID and accusing the government of "...letting COVID rip..." and not having "...a plan..." to deal with it.
And the BMA official in the article below who says that the latest COVID wave will "...have repercussions for years..." can just shut the **** up. This is pure fearmongering with an ulterior motive, as he cannot possibly predict the future course of the COVID pandemic so far in the future.
Whilst it is true that hospital admissions are rising, they are a lagging indicator, and as cases have clearly started to plateau, hospital admissions will eventually follow suit, In any case, as the article says, the vast majority of "COVID hospital admissions" are for people who are admitted for other reasons, and happen to test positive on entry. In other words, most people are very mildly ill if not asymptomatic, and wouldn't know they had COVID if they weren't tested.
One advantage of the current political situation is that no Conservative leadership candidate is going to get elected if they promise to bring back mandatory face nappies, social distancing, restrictions on gatherings or business closures.
By the time the new Prime Minister is in place (early September) the current wave will have peaked and the case for new restrictions will disappear, as will (hopefully) all the usual locktivist and maskivist bores who we've all grown thoroughly fed up with over the past two years.
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Susan Michie says Tories will 'sit on their hands' and 'let Covid rip'
The Professor of Health Psychology at University College London warned that new variants that are 'even more infectious' will lead to unnecessary deaths and hospitalisations.www.dailymail.co.uk
If there was a real panic with Covid, I'm sure we would be seeing the briefings return on TV
The officials who had their heads screwed on were Chris Whitty, Patrick Valance and Jonathan Van Tam, I blank from my mind anything that comes from lower levels or that's their opinion and not true factI agree. In reality all we’re seeing is the usual charlatans trying (and largely failing) to whip up hysteria in order to further their own agendas.
The officials who had their heads screwed on were Chris Whitty, Patrick Valance and Jonathan Van Tam, I blank from my mind anything that comes from lower levels or that's their opinion and not true fact
I am not quite so sure of that, at least as far as Whitty and Vallance were concerned.
They were quite adept at using figures to try and scare Boris Johnson into introducing new restrictions, or retaining existing ones.
Look at the ridiculously long 5 week interval betwen stages of the roadmap out of lockdown, from February to July of last year, which Whitty and Vallance insisted on.
I think "invested' is the key word here, we need to make money and time available to help doctors work more effectively. We need more people to repair the hull, rather than more bailers.Then the NHS needs more money invested in it. Restrictions for evermore are not the answer.
I do wonder if Whitty and Vallance would have been so keen on a 5 week interval between the stages out of lockdown if they had been told their wages would be drastically cut to go towards supporting the people the lockdown had affected.I am not quite so sure of that, at least as far as Whitty and Vallance were concerned.
They were quite adept at using figures to try and scare Boris Johnson into introducing new restrictions, or retaining existing ones.
Look at the ridiculously long 5 week interval betwen stages of the roadmap out of lockdown, from February to July of last year, which Whitty and Vallance insisted on.
I am not quite so sure of that, at least as far as Whitty and Vallance were concerned.
They were quite adept at using figures to try and scare Boris Johnson into introducing new restrictions, or retaining existing ones.
Look at the ridiculously long 5 week interval betwen stages of the roadmap out of lockdown, from February to July of last year, which Whitty and Vallance insisted on.
Oh dear, the SAGE and Fake SAGE doom mongers, including Comrade Michie of course, are banging on about COVID and accusing the government of "...letting COVID rip..." and not having "...a plan..." to deal with it.
And the BMA official in the article below who says that the latest COVID wave will "...have repercussions for years..." can just shut the **** up. This is pure fearmongering with an ulterior motive, as he cannot possibly predict the future course of the COVID pandemic so far in the future.
Whilst it is true that hospital admissions are rising, they are a lagging indicator, and as cases have clearly started to plateau, hospital admissions will eventually follow suit, In any case, as the article says, the vast majority of "COVID hospital admissions" are for people who are admitted for other reasons, and happen to test positive on entry. In other words, most people are very mildly ill if not asymptomatic, and wouldn't know they had COVID if they weren't tested.
One advantage of the current political situation is that no Conservative leadership candidate is going to get elected if they promise to bring back mandatory face nappies, social distancing, restrictions on gatherings or business closures.
By the time the new Prime Minister is in place (early September) the current wave will have peaked and the case for new restrictions will disappear, as will (hopefully) all the usual locktivist and maskivist bores who we've all grown thoroughly fed up with over the past two years.
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Susan Michie says Tories will 'sit on their hands' and 'let Covid rip'
The Professor of Health Psychology at University College London warned that new variants that are 'even more infectious' will lead to unnecessary deaths and hospitalisations.www.dailymail.co.uk
I think "invested' is the key word here, we need to make money and time available to help doctors work more effectively. We need more people to repair the hull, rather than more bailers.
"Data, not dates" was the mantra for introducing restrictions. But for withdrawing them it was suddenly "Dates not data".
She is an insane attention-seeking communist who needs to be ignored. Her views are unpalatable to all but a small minority of the population.Oh dear, the SAGE and Fake SAGE doom mongers, including Comrade Michie of course, are banging on about COVID and accusing the government of "...letting COVID rip..." and not having "...a plan..." to deal with it.