DB considers London service once again

[30907]

The ripple lane junction off hs1 in east London could also be used as an on/off point from HS1 to an alternative location in London?

A brand-new International station with good onward connections? - the capital cost (plus the added journey time) would probably kill the business case, even if you could find a suitable location. I can't quickly think of one, sorry.

 

[JamesT]

Jon Worth (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image So in the end it merited a diagram Want to write a story about a new train service? Here's how to avoid making a mess of it High res PNG: https://jonworth.eu/downloads/RailStoryDiagram-V-1-0-0.png High res PDF: https://jonworth.eu/downloads/RailStoryDiagram-V-1-0-0.pdf

gruene.social

(Complicated flowchart about the fact-checking a journalist should do before repeating hype about new train services.)

Jon Worth (@[email protected])

Soon (maybe next week) I’m going to write a huge explainer - an answer to *all* these bull**** stories about services through the Channel Tunnel, and what will or will not happen In the bull**** world of railway industry PR and “journalism”, stories about the tunnel are the worst of all

gruene.social

The article he said he was going to write is now at https://jonworth.eu/the-future-of-long-distance-train-services-through-the-channel-tunnel/

Periodically stories appear in newspapers, on radio and television, and also in the dedicated railway trade press, about future passenger train services through the Channel Tunnel – either new destinations to be offered by Eurostar, or completely alternative operators proposing new services. Most of these stories are based on statements made by players in the railway industry that have a particular incentive to explain the situation from their point of view, leading to inaccuracies in these reports.

This blog post is designed as a general response to those stories – a kind of overall assessment of the future of Channel Tunnel long distance passenger railway traffic, to help someone make sense of the stories that might appear in future.

Worth a read before people get the crayons out.

 

[Gag Halfrunt]

Yes, I posted a link to it yesterday.

 

[GingerSte]

Eurostar has actually partially done that already, and have installed two security and passport lanes in part of the arrivals area which they use at busy times

I didn't know that. I haven't used Eurostar in a while. (I'll be using it next month, though.)

Thanks for the information. So essentially my idea would just be an extension of that.

 

[D7666]

Verkehr: Kanaltunnel: Mehr Züge aus Deutschland nach London geplant

Hier finden Sie Informationen zu dem Thema „Verkehr“. Lesen Sie jetzt „Kanaltunnel: Mehr Züge aus Deutschland nach London geplant“.

www.zeit.de

That and any other German media outlet you car to look at has this story - it must have come from somewhere - there is no smoke without fire and I suspect if google enough will find something.

I posted the Zeit link as that one while referring Getlink /wanting/ more operators and to the DB earlier plan, quotes a DB spokesperson as saying " The traffic between London and the mainland through the Eurotunnel continues to be of fundamental interest to Deutsche Bahn" so while that is not actually saying DB starting up it does not say the opposite either.

 

[DelW]

Reopen Waterloo International?

I realise that the suggestion was in jest, but just in case anyone is taking it seriously, what was Waterloo International has been completely reconfigured into additional domestic platforms and a shopping centre.

I can't visualise DB fitting their trains with collector shoes and DC kit either.

 

[Gag Halfrunt]

That and any other German media outlet you car to look at has this story - it must have come from somewhere - there is no smoke without fire and I suspect if google enough will find something.

Jon Worth's view is that there is no "fire" with Deutsche Bahn or any other company talking about running trains through the Tunnel.

Deutsche Bahn, Germany’s state owned railway company stated recently that it had a “fundamental interest” in operating trains to London, but an interest and an actual plan are two very different things. Deutsche Bahn’s priorities, short term, are stabilising the services from Amsterdam and Bruxelles to Frankfurt, and offering extra services to Denmark and France (possibly including a direct Berlin-Paris ICE). Once that is all accomplished, and the availability of ICE trains for international services is clear, DB could then theoretically re-assess a London route – but I imagine were it to happen it is going to be closer to 2030 than to 2025. And even then the massive headaches with regard to station capacity in Germany might make them decide it is all too much hassle.

 

[TAS]

Verkehr: Kanaltunnel: Mehr Züge aus Deutschland nach London geplant

Hier finden Sie Informationen zu dem Thema „Verkehr“. Lesen Sie jetzt „Kanaltunnel: Mehr Züge aus Deutschland nach London geplant“.

www.zeit.de

That and any other German media outlet you car to look at has this story - it must have come from somewhere - there is no smoke without fire and I suspect if google enough will find something.

I posted the Zeit link as that one while referring Getlink /wanting/ more operators and to the DB earlier plan, quotes a DB spokesperson as saying " The traffic between London and the mainland through the Eurotunnel continues to be of fundamental interest to Deutsche Bahn" so while that is not actually saying DB starting up it does not say the opposite either.

I suspect you have already identified the fire behind the story, i.e. Getlink's recent announcement about wanting to increase use of the tunnel and boost competition. The article frames it in that context and it makes perfect sense that the DPA (German news agency whose article has been reproduced by Zeit and other outlets) would then approach DB for its view given its past interest.

Indeed, Getlink has been quite specific about wanting German destinations - take for example this extract from a recent Telegraph interview with its CEO:

But rather than waiting for train operators to approach EuroTunnel and come up with solutions, Leriche wants to speed things up by laying much of the groundwork for them.

He has convinced major train manufacturers to make their designs tunnel-compatible from the get-go, and has carried out studies of the European cities where new cross-Channel services could run.

During our meeting he whips out one such document, flipping through the pages showing detailed floor plans for a new potential terminal in Cologne.

“Of course, there is still work to be done. But we know what to do and everyone is ready to go for it,” he says.

The project resulted in EuroTunnel’s eye-catching announcement this month that it is aiming to double the number of European destinations available to London travellers, with other targets including Frankfurt, Geneva and Zurich.

The thing that links these places is the time they can be reached.

EuroTunnel’s research found people generally preferred not to travel by rail for more than four hours, taking planes instead for longer journeys.

Given this, it seems inevitable that DB would be asked for their view on the matter. Certainly, the quote from DB reads more like a reactive statement than a proactive one.

 

[30907]

I suspect you have already identified the fire behind the story, i.e. Getlink's recent announcement about wanting to increase use of the tunnel and boost competition. The article frames it in that context and it makes perfect sense that the DPA (German news agency whose article has been reproduced by Zeit and other outlets) would then approach DB for its view given its past interest.

Indeed, Getlink has been quite specific about wanting German destinations - take for example this extract from a recent Telegraph interview with its CEO:


Given this, it seems inevitable that DB would be asked for their view on the matter. Certainly, the quote from DB reads more like a reactive statement than a proactive one.

You can also read the comments (in German, similar conclusions, and even referencing Jon Worth as upthread) on:
https://www.drehscheibe-online.de/foren/read.php?002,10680351

 

[Meerkat]

When DB say they have a fundamental interest in London services do they mean in terms of them wanting to do it anytime soon, or just keeping an eye on it in case someone else might actually be serious about it, forcing DB to consider going for it to keep that company out of Germany?

 

[dm1]

I think by fundamental interest they mean that it is an aspiration with clear demand and political will , but all the challenges described in detail in the Jon Worth article mean that they don't currently view it as realistic in the short term.

Therefore if there are developments which would resolve some of those challenges, they would be interested, but in the meantime they probably have enough other, bigger problems to deal with within Germany.

DB tends to be much less protectionist than SNCF, as can be seen by the existence of e.g. Flixtrain, so that is unlikely to be as much of a consideration.

 

[RT4038]

DB tends to be much less protectionist than SNCF, as can be seen by the existence of e.g. Flixtrain, so that is unlikely to be as much of a consideration.

Don't you believe it! Flixtrain is a minor operation, from a company headed up by ex DB executives. I'll believe 'less protectionist' when a foreign (non-Germanic) company starts open access mainstream operations.....

 

[Trainbike46]

Don't you believe it! Flixtrain is a minor operation, from a company headed up by ex DB executives. I'll believe 'less protectionist' when a foreign (non-Germanic) company starts open access mainstream operations.....

Undeniably, there is a much larger set of train operators in germany, both regionally and intercity, in Germany compared to France. Thalys/eurostar, Flixtrain, non-db regional operators, for example

 

[popeter45]

Don't you believe it! Flixtrain is a minor operation, from a company headed up by ex DB executives. I'll believe 'less protectionist' when a foreign (non-Germanic) company starts open access mainstream operations.....

Like national express already do?

 

[RT4038]

Like national express already do?

What are the open access mainstream (fernverkehr) operations that National Express do?

 

[popeter45]

What are the open access mainstream (fernverkehr) operations that National Express do?

the Rhein-Express
you can get into symantics but thats a long distance operation between cities on the mainline

 

[RT4038]

the Rhein-Express
you can get into symantics but thats a long distance operation between cities on the mainline

It is a subsidised by regional government operation, awarded by tender, isn't it? It is not open access fernverkehr.

 

[Meerkat]

DB tends to be much less protectionist than SNCF, as can be seen by the existence of e.g. Flixtrain, so that is unlikely to be as much of a consideration.

Aren't there a multitude of cases of DB fighting very dirty on regional services bids? Protesting when they lose bids, knowing that they would lose the court case but that the private operator hasn't got the time and money to fight it and will just withdraw?

 

[Gag Halfrunt]

Jon Worth has updated his blog post.

Jon Worth (@[email protected])

Thanks to loads of useful feedback, my answer everything about through trains through the Channel Tunnel post is now up to version 1.2.0 Now added: - more explanation on why reversing trains at Stratford International cannot work - Hitachi A-Train as a rolling stock option - explanation of...

gruene.social

Thanks to loads of useful feedback, my answer everything about through trains through the Channel Tunnel post is now up to version 1.2.0

Now added:
- more explanation on why reversing trains at Stratford International cannot work
- Hitachi A-Train as a rolling stock option
- explanation of problems with night trains to London

Jon Worth (@[email protected])

A whole bunch of updates to my long distance trains through the Channel Tunnel explainer today https://jonworth.eu/the-future-of-long-distance-train-services-through-the-channel-tunnel/ - new (contradictory!) info about the train length requirement - news about ETCS on Eurostar e300 trains -...

gruene.social

- new (contradictory!) info about the train length requirement
- news about ETCS on Eurostar e300 trains
- detail added about the idea Getlink might buy and lease trains
- other details about e300 depots, Renfe 106, CDG TGV, DB 408 added

The future of long distance train services through the Channel Tunnel - Jon Worth

TL;DR – whatever you read in the press about future long distance train services through the Channel Tunnel is at best only part of the truth, because the reality is complicated Periodically stories appear in newspapers, on radio and television, and also in the dedicated railway trade press...

jonworth.eu

 

[YorkRailFan]

The Hitachi A-Train possibility interests me. Surely there would have to be a lot of work to get the 80X or Javelin approved for European service and Channel operations?

 

[Trainbike46]

The Hitachi A-Train possibility interests me. Surely there would have to be a lot of work to get the 80X or Javelin approved for European service and Channel operations?

It is clearly referring to a new A-train derivative specially designed for the channel tunnel, rather than the current 80x / javelins.

The article is quite clear that the author thinks ant ETR 1000 derivative is more likely in any case

 

[YorkRailFan]

It is clearly referring to a new A-train derivative specially designed for the channel tunnel, rather than the current 80x / javelins.

The article is quite clear that the author thinks ant ETR 1000 derivative is more likely in any case

I would agree with the ETR 1000 as it gives Trenitalia the option to run to London. Besides, which UK operator would use a 80X or Javelin? Definitely not SE, LNER or GWR and Eurostar has the E320.

 

[popeter45]

i was the one suggesting A-Trains for a IZY like service that could use classic DC lines and classic French lines rather that HS1/LGV Nord to save costs
could even only go as far as Lille on a 2:30hr trip for onwards connections using SNCF/SNCB or Eurostar Red

 

[swt_passenger]

I'd would consider another railway to use that temporary until Euston International is built, HS 2. The track is there from Old Oak, just needs a bit of infrasture built to connect up the new Station to the West London Lines.

Impossible. Many previous threads explain why HS2 at its existing level well below ground cannot be practically connected to the west London line.

 

[eldomtom2]

I've also heard suggestions that a tunnel should be built from OOC to Queens Park so that trains can run OOC-Watford DC-Primrose Hill-NLL-HS1...

 

[AlbertBeale]

i was the one suggesting A-Trains for a IZY like service that could use classic DC lines and classic French lines rather that HS1/LGV Nord to save costs
could even only go as far as Lille on a 2:30hr trip for onwards connections using SNCF/SNCB or Eurostar Red

That's 2h30m from where to where?

I've also heard suggestions that a tunnel should be built from OOC to Queens Park so that trains can run OOC-Watford DC-Primrose Hill-NLL-HS1...

Since the planned HS2 tunnel would run more or less under the Queens Park - South Hampstead line anyway, all [sic] that would be needed would be to find a way to bring a connection up to the surface by the time you get to Chalk Farm.... And then you'd only need to squeeze the services onto the NLL for half a mile or so. Hmmm....

 

[popeter45]

That's 2h30m from where to where?

St Pancras international platforms to Lille Europe
https://signal.eu.org/osm/#locs=51.530413,-0.125307;50.638752,3.075694 (make sure to select No High Speed Lines)

 

[AlbertBeale]

St Pancras international platforms to Lille Europe
https://signal.eu.org/osm/#locs=51.530413,-0.125307;50.638752,3.075694 (make sure to select No High Speed Lines)

Blimey - are those sums right? (The link you gave showed distances and speeds, but not times* - as far as I could find - and I didn't go through doing all the sums; and I'm surprised if StP-Lille could actually be done in 2.5 hours while avoiding all HS lines other than the tunnel itself. Especially since it wouldn't have those routes to itself, but would need to fit round other [stopping!] services...)

But would avoiding HS routes really save enough cost to enable a cheap-and-cheerful London-Lille at a significantly lower price than existing services? If it really were a lot cheaper - and without booking months ahead - I guess there might be a market for it ... providing people were persuaded that the range of onward connections from Lille Europe was good enough.

Of course it would need tri-voltage stock (aren't French non-HS routes on a different system from the HS and international lines?).

But it's an option to expand international services from StP that I hadn't come across before. Even if the sums worked out, the range of onward connections from Lille might be a key factor in its attractiveness. Are there many services on to, say, German or Switzerland direct from Lille?

*Woops - sorry - later update. I see that site does give a total time (2h32m). Though presumably that's assuming running at full line speed on all of each section, with slick interconnections, and no other trains in the way. A 2.5 hour headline time might be attractive, but make it a more realistic 3 hours or more, allowing for pathing, and unless it's really cheap compared to Eurostar it might not be that attractive.

Maybe there's a compromise where it uses some of the faster infrastructure, but still cuts costs in other ways - not that the basic service on Eurostar isn't fairly no-frills anyway. I suppose it's uncertain what trade-off of speed and price would work.

I'd see a big selling point as having walk-up fares close to the level for which Eurostar require booking many months ahead. The prohibitive expense of Eurostar is a lot to do with the need to book so far ahead to make it affordable. So a cheap and cheerful walk-up service would to good business I'm sure - though whether it would be viable without having a fair few high-priced seats to cover costs I don't know. If there were walk-up tickets, even without being any cheaper than the lowest tier of Eurostar prices, I'd happily put up with 3 or more hours on the slow lines to Lille!

 

[eldomtom2]

And then you'd only need to squeeze the services onto the NLL for half a mile or so. Hmmm....

The idea was that quadruple track would be reinstated from the DC line connection to the HS1 connection.

 

[Bald Rick]

i was the one suggesting A-Trains for a IZY like service that could use classic DC lines and classic French lines rather that HS1/LGV Nord to save costs
could even only go as far as Lille on a 2:30hr trip for onwards connections using SNCF/SNCB or Eurostar Red

Blimey - are those sums right?

No, they are not right.

Assuming fitting in around existing services, and assuming no oathing conflicts at the (very many) junctions en route, it would be 1h50 to 2h just to get to the tunnel, assuming no intermediate calls (eg Ashford).

So well over three hours, and probably nearer four. Which means it need much more resources per trip than eurostar. And resources mean money, which means in all likelihood it would be more expensive to operate.