December 2022 Timetable Changes

[4-SUB 4732]

Historically not many fast trains stopped at Orpington in the peaks. Down trains typically ran fast from Waterloo East or London Bridge to Chelsfield, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge or even High Brooms. I've never understood why they stopped at Chelsfield rather than Orpington.

Because Chelsfield was sufficiently busy with commuters to require the extra services, at a time when it was not possible to path more stopping trains. Hence Knockholt and Dunton Green only got a train about every 22 minutes.

 

[30907]

I've never understood why they stopped at Chelsfield rather than Orpington.

Chelsfield connects for Knockholt and Dunton Green which didn't have any CHX service (whereas Orpington did) - stopping at ORP would have swamped the trains.

 

[PGAT]

Chelsfield connects for Knockholt and Dunton Green which didn't have any CHX service

Knockholt and Dunton Green are served by 2 tph Charing Cross - Sevenoaks services.

 

[dodecahedron67]

Knockholt and Dunton Green are served by 2 tph Charing Cross - Sevenoaks services.

Not in the peak - it used to be 3tph Charing X - Orpington via Lewisham and 3tph Cannon St - Sevenoaks fast New X - Hither Green

 

[30907]

Not in the peak - it used to be 3tph Charing X - Orpington via Lewisham and 3tph Cannon St - Sevenoaks fast New X - Hither Green

Or going back further, fast CST to Petts Wood!

 

[Kite159]

I think in the current timetable in the evening peak there is 2tph from Charing X - Orpington which run fast from London Bridge to Grove Park, crossing over to the slow lines after Grove Park, calling at the usual stops to Orpington. (And I'm sure they used to run back towards Charing Cross, going nonstop to London Bridge).

I'm surprised that Ore starter has remained, for the token South Eastern service from Ore.

 

[N/100]

Duplicate response deleted

 

[Adam Evans]

Much appreciated that I had a feeling it would be 185s, assuming the Mk5/68s will be on the Manchester-Scarborough and Liverpool-Cleethorpes.

I think the point is that the empty stock working track to Ardwick rather than anywhere else and it fits the traincrew knowledge.

It's a shame in my opinion as I think the Liverpool-Cleethorpes service would be much better served by 185s than Nova 3s given that it will call at several stations along the CLC route. I would've thought the more stop-start nature of this service would be better suited to the 185s rather than the loco-hauled Nova 3s which would be better suited to the Liverpool-Hull service since it will largely be the same as the previous Liverpool-Scarborough route until it passes Leeds.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

It's a shame in my opinion as I think the Liverpool-Cleethorpes service would be much better served by 185s than Nova 3s given that it will call at several stations along the CLC route. I would've thought the more stop-start nature of this service would be better suited to the 185s rather than the loco-hauled Nova 3s which would be better suited to the Liverpool-Hull service since it will largely be the same as the previous Liverpool-Scarborough route until it passes Leeds.

The 68s and mk5s are somewhat constrained where they can be used due to lack of compliance with noise levels in residential areas where they stable overnight.

The use of the sets on the Cleethorpes route is more it’s somewhere they can be used as opposed to a route of choice.

 

[Birmingham]

Why has Euston Birmingham gone down to 2tph in Avanti’s December 2022 timetable? Is this permanent?

 

[william.martin]

Does anybody know if there are going to be any major changes to the stour valley and the line between W'hampton and Shrewsbury?

 

[dk1]

Why has Euston Birmingham gone down to 2tph in Avanti’s December 2022 timetable? Is this permanent?

It’s half hourly fast to Coventry & a stopper at Watford, Milton Keynes & Rugby.

Departures from Euston are 10, 16 (stopper ) & 40.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It’s half hourly fast to Coventry & a stopper at Watford, Milton Keynes & Rugby.

Though for somewhat obvious reasons the stopper isn't going to start in Dec, so it is just 2tph with the stops inserted in those for now.

 

[Birmingham]

Though for somewhat obvious reasons the stopper isn't going to start in Dec, so it is just 2tph with the stops inserted in those for now.

Yes, it’s definitely only 2tph total Avanti at the moment which is what I’m querying.

Departures from Euston are 10, 16 (stopper ) & 40.

RTT is just showing 16 (stopper to Scotland) and 40 (fast to Coventry and terminates New Street) at the moment.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes, it’s definitely only 2tph total Avanti at the moment which is what I’m querying.

So the answer is that it is because Avanti can't staff the third train plus the 807s aren't built yet. I would personally expect the third train (the semifast, so of limited interest for end to end journeys though if it's quiet it might be a good one for cheap Advances) probably not to start until at least Dec 2023, same with the second Liverpool.

 

[JonathanH]

I would personally expect the third train probably not to start until at least Dec 2023, same with the second Liverpool.

Or more likely just not start, given the rumoured cost savings coming in the railway operation.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or more likely just not start, given the rumoured cost savings coming in the railway operation.

Also possible. I have noted elsewhere that there's a certain mid-blue FirstGroup open access operation that might just find some 7 car 80x quite useful.

 

[Birmingham]

So the answer is that it is because Avanti can't staff the third train plus the 807s aren't built yet. I would personally expect the third train (the semifast, so of limited interest for end to end journeys though if it's quiet it might be a good one for cheap Advances) probably not to start until at least Dec 2023, same with the second Liverpool.

The trouble is that’s a massive reduction in frequency and capacity until/unless that happens. And all 3tph were in the timetable before. Was that just a move to lock in the paths in the recast even though they never intended to run them from December? Disappointing!

 

[The Planner]

The trouble is that’s a massive reduction in frequency and capacity until/unless that happens. And all 3tph were in the timetable before. Was that just a move to lock in the paths in the recast even though they never intended to run them from December? Disappointing!

The timetable was already pretty much done before things started to fall apart. The 807s are a bit of a red herring.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The trouble is that’s a massive reduction in frequency and capacity until/unless that happens. And all 3tph were in the timetable before. Was that just a move to lock in the paths in the recast even though they never intended to run them from December? Disappointing!

It isn't a reduction. Only 2tph are operating now. 3 haven't for a long while now.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

It isn't a reduction. Only 2tph are operating now. 3 haven't for a long while now.

Indeed and Birmingham hasn’t seen the resurgence in passenger numbers either so there’s no real need for the extra capacity currently either.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed and Birmingham hasn’t seen the resurgence in passenger numbers either so there’s no real need for the extra capacity currently either.

At least in part because London to Brum actually has 5tph (2 Avanti, 2 Chiltern, 1 LNR) soon to become 6 with the second LNR coming in Dec.

 

[AlbertBeale]

Indeed and Birmingham hasn’t seen the resurgence in passenger numbers either so there’s no real need for the extra capacity currently either.

At least in part because London to Brum actually has 5tph (2 Avanti, 2 Chiltern, 1 LNR) soon to become 6 with the second LNR coming in Dec.

And a lot additional fresh air per hour on HST sometime in the distant future too?

 

[dk1]

The full 3tph to Birmingham is shown in selected hours still.

 

[Birmingham]

It isn't a reduction. Only 2tph are operating now. 3 haven't for a long while now.

That’s a little sneaky. By that logic you could say 1tph in the December 2022 timetable wouldn’t be a reduction because that’s what’s operating in the daytime now. It’s been 3tph for years, and if the franchise really won’t reinstate that as some here think (and I don’t necessarily disbelieve you!), they should come out and say so.

Indeed and Birmingham hasn’t seen the resurgence in passenger numbers either so there’s no real need for the extra capacity currently either.

But how much of that is because of Avanti’s reductions, forcing people onto regional stoppers all the way? I think passenger numbers Birmingham to London are a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But how much of that is because of Avanti’s reductions, forcing people onto regional stoppers all the way? I think passenger numbers Birmingham to London are a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Some of it will be because Avanti is presently dire and best avoided, but it'll also be because business travel has reduced, probably permanently, and leisure travellers are more interested in budget options, not least budget options like Chiltern that aren't even much slower.

It almost pushes the point that what the UK's network needs is just loads of cheap and reasonably comfortable capacity to allow lots of people to be carried at reasonable fares.

 

[Killingworth]

Some of it will be because Avanti is presently dire and best avoided, but it'll also be because business travel has reduced, probably permanently, and leisure travellers are more interested in budget options, not least budget options like Chiltern that aren't even much slower.

It almost pushes the point that what the UK's network needs is just loads of cheap and reasonably comfortable capacity to allow lots of people to be carried at reasonable fares.

Post Covid there are new norms gradually becoming established, currently distorted by training and industrial relations issues compounded by rolling stock and infrastruture challenges.

My local line is between Sheffield and Manchester. Thanks to a combination of the factors above the fast services, of TPE in particular, have probably lost over 50% of their former commuter traffic. Typically they take 50-55 minutes. The Northern stopping service takes nearer 80 minutes and is usually significantly cheaper. Ridership is possibly up on pre-Covid as many take that option, even some commuters - or maybe it's not surprising?

A grandson has just reported his weekend rail experience. Newcastle to Canterbury on Friday in a couple of minutes over 4 hours. He was really impressed. Almost all day to get back on Sunday, including over 2 hours stuck at Doncaster! The trials and tribulations within the railway industry are not what he wants to have to contend with when trying to have a nice weekend with friends. (Grandad had suggested deferring a week!)

When railways work to plan they can still be brilliant. If and when they do demand for leisure capacity is going to rapidly exceed supply.

 

[miklcct]

The Northern stopping service takes nearer 80 minutes and is usually significantly cheaper. Ridership is possibly up on pre-Covid as many take that option, even some commuters - or maybe it's not surprising?

Here I'd say that because a stopping service serves more towns and village en-route, it by its very nature attracts more passengers to use the service.

Therefore, when passenger numbers drop, the first services to be dropped are the fast services if the trains aren't full.

 

[philosopher]

Some of it will be because Avanti is presently dire and best avoided, but it'll also be because business travel has reduced, probably permanently, and leisure travellers are more interested in budget options, not least budget options like Chiltern that aren't even much slower.

It almost pushes the point that what the UK's network needs is just loads of cheap and reasonably comfortable capacity to allow lots of people to be carried at reasonable fares.

I think this highlights the predicament the railways are in, leisure travellers are far more price sensitive than commuters and business travellers so will avoid using the more expensive services.

In terms of revenue, it would make more sense to only have one London Northwestern Railway service between London and Birmingham but have three Avanti services on the same route per hour. This would encourage passengers to use the more expensive Avanti services.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In terms of revenue, it would make more sense to only have one London Northwestern Railway service between London and Birmingham but have three Avanti services on the same route per hour. This would encourage passengers to use the more expensive Avanti services.

It wouldn't at all, because at present they're just using Chiltern anyway.

You could split that at Banbury to make it less convenient, but then they'd just drive.

The railway needs to provide what people want, which isn't fast "crack expresses" but frequent capacity at a decent comfort level and a reasonable price. Chiltern are doing well by providing exactly that. It needs to look much more like Nederlandse Spoorwegen than SNCF.

People also like (surprise, surprise) that Chiltern offers reasonable walk-up prices, with no need to plan in advance.