Do you think that the UK switching to electric vehicles is realistic?

[AM9]

It's really not as big a deal as people like to make out.

It is if it's the only argument that they can put up against EVs.

 

[Ken H]

It's really not as big a deal as people like to make out.

I can do lots of small trips in the space of ~10%-15% battery use which then leaves well over 175 miles of usable range afterwards. The higher capacity battery cars will do more. I daresay you should be taking a break at the M6 after driving for >2.5 hours straight, and I suspect the highway code agrees with me.

but for how long? what if there is a queue for a charger? A 20-30 minute stop maybe, but not over an hour. And that assumes there are charging places where I am going. At a relatives?

 

[AM9]

but for how long? what if there is a queue for a charger? A 20-30 minute stop maybe, but not over an hour. And that assumes there are charging places where I am going. At a relatives?

Those that travel by EV rarely have any issues because they plan their charging and where necessary route to recharge their vehicles. When the majority of vehicles on the road are EVs, their drivers will also do the same and issues regularly used as an argument against them will be the exception, as are mechanical breakdowns of ICVs.

 

[BingMan]

Things change and the world moves on. In the beginning every new technology has some draw backs and problems and people can focus on them and point out the failings compared to the existing mature alternative, but it doesn't matter because some people try them, buy them and over time the technology steadily improves and gradually everyone adopts it and it displaces the old.

But some new technologies really are worse, being introduced only for commercial reasons.
The change from plain old telephony to internet telephony is a very good example. Cheaper for the telephone company but a disastor for anyone having an emergency during a power cut.
And one could argue that computer technology is going downhill as Microsoft mandates more and more bloated operating systems

 

[Bald Rick]

But people make lots of small trips, then do a long one.

some people do. Most don’t.

what if there is a queue for a charger?

what if there’s a queue for the petrol station?

And that assumes there are charging places where I am going.

there are.

 

[trebor79]

But people make lots of small trips, then do a long one. Suddenly the car you have isn't capable of part of what you bought it for. And no, I dont want to spend an hour on an M6 services charging my car. I want to get where i am going.

So you either plan to manage the charge appropriately for that longer journey, or accept it's one of the edge cases where you might have to stop for 20 or 30 minutes at a rapid charger.

 

[Harpers Tate]

....edge cases.....

Exactly. Offset against the (in most peoples' cases) occasional need for an extra charging stop en route somewhere, is the (in most peoples' cases) complete absence of any need to ever call at a filling station (which in most cases involves a special trip out or a diversion of a route etc., and in any case a 5-10 minute stop) at other times, because the car is normally refuelled at home.

Put it this way: we used to fuel our old oil burner maybe 20x per year. If each such visit takes (or adds) an average of 7.5 minutes to the 20 days in question that's 150 minutes annually. If we only need to add 30 minutes extra time to a long journey (by which I mean - a totally orphaned wait with no parallel activity like having lunch) to recharge our car on 5x occasions per year then on a time assessment, we've broken even. Less EV stops and we're ahead.

 

[The Ham]

So you either plan to manage the charge appropriately for that longer journey, or accept it's one of the edge cases where you might have to stop for 20 or 30 minutes at a rapid charger.

To give you an idea of how much of an edge cases this is, on average each person in the UK averages 4 trips a year which are more than 100 miles.

Now as a family we exceed that value of 4 by quite a margin (in both number taken and distance beyond 100 miles) so for the average to be that low there's others who don't do anywhere near that many.

Of those trips which are above 100 miles about 55% are up to 150 miles.

Which means on average there's likely to be just one return trip each year which someone does which is over 150 miles. However on average for every 5 people who do such a trip one does it by another mode other than car.

As such, very much edge cases for the majority of people.

 

[StKeverne1497]

[snip]

Which means on average there's likely to be just one return trip each year which someone does which is over 150 miles. However on average for every 5 people who do such a trip one does it by another mode other than car.

As such, very much edge cases for the majority of people.

It's the flexibility thing though, isn't it? We have got into the mindset that we can hop into our cars and toddle off wherever and (pretty much) whenever we like. With current EVs some of that is no longer possible, and we're all going to have to change our mindsets. That's not necessarily a "bad" thing, but it will take a while to get used to.

From our point of view, I commute 45 miles each way to work, and my wife has a job which can take her as much as 100 miles away from home, often to out-of-the-way places with no charging infrastructure. Our annual mileage is significantly higher than the "average". That's the problem with averages - they ignore the outliers, and that might be a significant number of people.

We have close relatives 180 miles away which we try to visit at least 2 or 3 times a year, and we usually holiday in the UK by car. Our last was from South Wales to Dorset and while we did stop en-route, it was at Stonehenge on the way there and Yeovilton on the way back, neither of which visitor attractions have charge points as far as I'm aware. Of course, that might change, but doing that trip by EV at the moment would probably mean missing out on those points of interest in favour of charging the car at some dreary supermarket.

So in a few years' time when we have to swap the family car for an EV, we're also going to have to re-think our work patterns, our holiday patterns and in fact our general lifestyle.

Not necessarily a "bad" thing, no, but I thought the hair shirts of the eco-warriers of the 1970s had long been consigned to the compost heap!

M.

 

[The Ham]

It's the flexibility thing though, isn't it? We have got into the mindset that we can hop into our cars and toddle off wherever and (pretty much) whenever we like. With current EVs some of that is no longer possible, and we're all going to have to change our mindsets. That's not necessarily a "bad" thing, but it will take a while to get used to.

From our point of view, I commute 45 miles each way to work, and my wife has a job which can take her as much as 100 miles away from home, often to out-of-the-way places with no charging infrastructure. Our annual mileage is significantly higher than the "average". That's the problem with averages - they ignore the outliers, and that might be a significant number of people.

We have close relatives 180 miles away which we try to visit at least 2 or 3 times a year, and we usually holiday in the UK by car. Our last was from South Wales to Dorset and while we did stop en-route, it was at Stonehenge on the way there and Yeovilton on the way back, neither of which visitor attractions have charge points as far as I'm aware. Of course, that might change, but doing that trip by EV at the moment would probably mean missing out on those points of interest in favour of charging the car at some dreary supermarket.

So in a few years' time when we have to swap the family car for an EV, we're also going to have to re-think our work patterns, our holiday patterns and in fact our general lifestyle.

Not necessarily a "bad" thing, no, but I thought the hair shirts of the eco-warriers of the 1970s had long been consigned to the compost heap!

M.

As a family we have elements which are the same (family about 200 miles away, the potential for long distance work travel), however that just means that the cost savings from lower fuel costs rack up faster, even if it means that a car with a higher range which pushes the cost up.

Right now we'd probably struggle to make it work, however compare that with a few years ago when it would have been near impossible and it's likely that in the next few years things will improve further so that it will be easier still.

That's not surprising, given that just over 2% of cars plug in to charge (as of February 2022), however with predictions of about 1/4 of all cars being registered this year having a plug to charge (so includes plug in hybrids), that figure is doing to start to rise rather rapidly.

As such it's likely that places will start to look at charging points more and more as time moves forwards, as the lack of charging is likely to become more of a factor as to why people don't visit.

We are quite fortunate in that currently we only need one car (as I can walk to work and live somewhere with a reasonable train service) and even if we moved to two cars, it'll be easy for one to be an EV (in part due to having only had one car for ages we don't have the mindset that one car is mine and the other is my wife's so would be happy switching back and forth as it suited our travel) as mostly one of us could easily use the EV for our travel.

The only time that wouldn't work is when one of us is working and then traveling the 200 miles to meet up with the other seeing family or coming back early for work. However driving 2 cars for 4 hours rather than sharing the driving one way and using the train for the other doesn't sound that attractive either.

Chances are we'll it for a plug in hybrid in the medium term (covering most of our day to day travel by electric), but would love to be able to move to an EV as soon as possible. Although the high cost of secondhand cars is making any change of car likely to be very expensive in the short term.

 

[JamesT]

Rather than private cars, I think there should be more focus on encouraging more vans to be electric. As they will likely be spending more of their day being driven around town contributing towards poor air quality.
I’m also hoping that newer models are better than the heap of junk Nissan my work has. It can’t manage a return trip from Oxford to Slough, so time needs to be allowed for a charge in at least one direction. (The facility in Slough only has one charger which is frequently unavailable).
Talking of charging, which numpty designed charge points that you can attach two cars to but only actually charges one? The UI is entirely unobvious that it won’t actually charge your vehicle if it’s already handling one on the other port. To make matters worse, when the first vehicle finishes, it doesn’t start charging the second even though you’ve waved your card at it etc.

 

[NoRoute]

So in a few years' time when we have to swap the family car for an EV, we're also going to have to re-think our work patterns, our holiday patterns and in fact our general lifestyle.

Not necessarily a "bad" thing, no, but I thought the hair shirts of the eco-warriers of the 1970s had long been consigned to the compost heap!

It's looking like new plug-in hybrid cars will be available until 2035, which is 13 years for the technology to improve before the first new car buyer is forced to buy an EV by which point today's constraints and limitations will likely have gone.

In the meantime a PHEV allows people to switch a good portion of their driving to electric while retaining the flexibility of a petrol car with better efficiency. No hair shirt needed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In the meantime a PHEV allows people to switch a good portion of their driving to electric while retaining the flexibility of a petrol car with better efficiency. No hair shirt needed.

It does surprise me that PHEVs aren't being pushed more. Most car journeys are short and urban, and it's these where ICEs cause most harm (by way of particulates, NOx etc). One could imagine GPS based geofencing being usable to restrict urban use to electric unless the battery level is zero, and for the engine to work a little harder out of those areas (e.g. on the motorway) to ensure that when arriving at an urban area you always have a full charge. Plus you can charge at home if you have a driveway.

This also seems a very sensible approach for long-distance commercial vehicles like lorries and coaches. Personally I find builders' lorries one of the most unpleasant pollution sources in London - they utterly stink. But a modern petrol engine running on the motorway is much less of an issue.

 

[Ken H]

It's looking like new plug-in hybrid cars will be available until 2035, which is 13 years for the technology to improve before the first new car buyer is forced to buy an EV by which point today's constraints and limitations will likely have gone.

In the meantime a PHEV allows people to switch a good portion of their driving to electric while retaining the flexibility of a petrol car with better efficiency. No hair shirt needed.

But they are heavy. So newton tells us that force = mass times acceleration. Increase mass and that means more force. And that is petrol or electricity.

 

[GLC]

One could imagine GPS based geofencing being usable to restrict urban use to electric unless the battery level is zero, and for the engine to work a little harder out of those areas (e.g. on the motorway) to ensure that when arriving at an urban area you always have a full charge.

Modern PHEVs already do this, although it often relies on the satnav having a route set so the car can figure when best to use or charge the battery. BMW even give effectively loyalty points now for using the electric side of your PHEV in designated low emission zones, and those points can be redeemed to discount the cost of charging at public chargers

 

[NoRoute]

Happy

But they are heavy. So newton tells us that force = mass times acceleration. Increase mass and that means more force. And that is petrol or electricity.

So with PHEVs being slightly heavier it takes a little more energy to accelerate, but when you brake that energy mostly goes back into the battery, rather than as heat in the brakes.

Also the battery allows hybrids to use Atkinson cycle engines which are more thermally efficient.

Overall PHEVs are typically significantly more efficient than regular cars.

 

[matacaster]

But some new technologies really are worse, being introduced only for commercial reasons.
The change from plain old telephony to internet telephony is a very good example. Cheaper for the telephone company but a disastor for anyone having an emergency during a power cut.
And one could argue that computer technology is going downhill as Microsoft mandates more and more bloated operating systems

Try linux mint. Free, pretty similar to Windows 7 interface, no ads!

 

[apk55]

Happy


So with PHEVs being slightly heavier it takes a little more energy to accelerate, but when you brake that energy mostly goes back into the battery, rather than as heat in the brakes.

Also the battery allows hybrids to use Atkinson cycle engines which are more thermally efficient.

Overall PHEVs are typically significantly more efficient than regular cars.

Personally I like the idea of plug in hybrids.
Petrol engines are very inefficient at low power outputs and use a considerable amount of fuel when idling.They are most efficient when running at a high percentage of maximum power output.
Electric cars are at their best when running at low power outputs and battery efficiency falls when at high outputs.

My preference would be for a serial hybrid which can be considered as a electric car with a petrol generator fitted - no mechanical drive from engine fitted. Manufactures could use the same platform for a pure electric car with the engine being replaced by a bigger battery or more storage space.
A variety of engine sizes could be offered. At one end of the scale a large engine could be fitted that could provide sufficient power to drive continuously at 70MPH these would appeal to heavy duty users or for example people who want to tow a lot.
At the other end of scale a tiny engine could be fitted, that could only supply enough power to go at 30 or 40 MPH. Higher speeds and good acceleration would be possible but at the expense of discharging the battery. However at lower speeds the engine would charge the battery and it is quite possible that the engine could be switched off and the car driven on electric only. These could appeal to people where charging facilities are uncertain.

My own choice would be for a car with an electric range of around 100 miles and an engine that could provide sufficient power to do 50 MPH continuously. On a long journey I could drive at 70MPH for 150 to 200 miles before the battery was discharged by which time I would be ready for a break. However more typically I find it is impossible to sustain 70 MPH so the range would be much longer. And for shorter trips I would just use pure electric mode without having to worry about having sufficient charge - If I misjudged I could just start the engine for a quick boost charge

 

[jon0844]

Plug in hybrids suit many users, but probably have higher maintenance costs in the long run as you have the same ICE equipment to service, as well as the electrical side. However, for some people the cost of a pure EV and the (current) lack of charging infrastructure in some locations make them a viable option with many benefits.

I agree that a petrol generator to charge the batteries, thus keeping the car as a pure EV, is probably the best - but I am not sure that concept really took off. Wasn't BMW one that had this with the i3 - a car with many major flaws (and a super high cost, but that might just be because BMW wanted it to be a premium product).

Perhaps an alternative idea is for remote areas to have petrol/diesel generators that can provide an electric vehicle top up. That might sound mad and very eco unfriendly, but given electricity can currently be produced using fossil fuels, you're simply generating at a local level. You can then charge a car that will be emission free in towns, and control the emissions at the charging station itself - with a view to, obviously, switching to electricity as soon as possible.

My local Vodafone cell site was powered by generators for around a year while waiting for power, and I am sure many rural locations are today.

If it means more people changing to an EV, there surely has to be a clear benefit there.

 

[GLC]

BMW did offer an board petrol generator in their i3, which is the model I personally own. The new(ish) black cab, the LEVC TX, uses the same concept. Although the concept does indeed offer all the weight of a BEV, with the complexity of an ICE, the i3 ICE was only a 2 cylinder 660cc scooter engine, so reduced maintenance cost compared to a PHEV with a bigger engine. It can’t however, sustain battery charge beyond 70mph. The TX has a 1.5L petrol engine so is much more suited to longer running to top up the battery

 

[jon0844]

BMW did offer an board petrol generator in their i3, which is the model I personally own. The new(ish) black cab, the LEVC TX, uses the same concept. Although the concept does indeed offer all the weight of a BEV, with the complexity of an ICE, the i3 ICE was only a 2 cylinder 660cc scooter engine, so reduced maintenance cost compared to a PHEV with a bigger engine. It can’t however, sustain battery charge beyond 70mph. The TX has a 1.5L petrol engine so is much more suited to longer running to top up the battery

Most of my car usage is short range, so I'd be more than happy to have to stop to charge the battery up rather than try and do so in motion.

 

[Bald Rick]

My preference would be for a serial hybrid which can be considered as a electric car with a petrol generator fitted - no mechanical drive from engine fitted. Manufactures could use the same platform for a pure electric car with the engine being replaced by a bigger battery or more storage space.

you’ve described the BMW i3 With the “range extender” option.

very few people bought it, so BMW discontinued it.

 

[apk55]

you’ve described the BMW i3 With the “range extender” option.

very few people bought it, so BMW discontinued it.

You are looking at a high price luxury car, not an economy runabout. I am thinking about the bottom to middle part of the market. As it stands the cheapest electric car or hybrid is way more expensive than than the cheapest petrol car - enough to buy at least 50000 miles of petrol at todays prices.
In addition the supply problem with new cars is distorting the market as the sales are determined by what manufactures supply not what customers want.

 

[JamesT]

You are looking at a high price luxury car, not an economy runabout. I am thinking about the bottom to middle part of the market. As it stands the cheapest electric car or hybrid is way more expensive than than the cheapest petrol car - enough to buy at least 50000 miles of petrol at todays prices.
In addition the supply problem with new cars is distorting the market as the sales are determined by what manufactures supply not what customers want.

I think the thing is that your constraint on no mechanical linkage excludes many current implementations of hybrid vehicles. E.g. Toyota have hybrids on pretty much all of their range but they aren’t solely using electric motors attached to the wheels.

 

[trebor79]

You are looking at a high price luxury car, not an economy runabout. I am thinking about the bottom to middle part of the market. As it stands the cheapest electric car or hybrid is way more expensive than than the cheapest petrol car - enough to buy at least 50000 miles of petrol at todays prices.
In addition the supply problem with new cars is distorting the market as the sales are determined by what manufactures supply not what customers want.

MG5, MG ZS and the new Ora Cat are/were pretty cheap (and will be again when supply chains are back to normal). The MG5 in particular very good value. MG are also bringing out a smaller electric vehicle with around 250 mile range later this year or in 2023.

The other thing to bear in mind is that some of these electric vehicles are actually appreciating rather than depreciating in value. People with eg 2-year old Tesla Model 3 being offered more that the original purchase price by brokers, and someone on another forum with a 3 year old E-Golf which he's traded in at an effective cost to him of £110/month of ownership.

I think the thing is that your constraint on no mechanical linkage excludes many current implementations of hybrid vehicles. E.g. Toyota have hybrids on pretty much all of their range but they aren’t solely using electric motors attached to the wheels.

I saw an advert last night for the new Qashqai. "Mild hybrid", but right at the end it teased a "fully electric, no battery" (or words to that effect) version coming in a few months, which gave me the impression it's going to be petrol engine with an electric transmission.

 

[Bald Rick]

You are looking at a high price luxury car, not an economy runabout.

the i3 was positioned very much as an economy runabout. That’s what my two friends who own them use them for. Accepting that you are paying a lot of money for the badge.

 

[jon0844]

Pictures of the new MG are now out and it looks quite nice, and first impression videos are going up for the new Smart #1 - although the latter is very much a premium city car, and has a crazy big battery for a city car (but there may be other models coming with a smaller range).

It would seem that we're still seeing car makers concentrating on premium cars for now, and I do hope we get more cars at MG prices (or lower) with less need for bells and whistles. The new Smart is designed on the inside by Mercedes and it shows; very high quality, with all the toys. I love to see all that tech, but I actually just want an affordable car. I don't spend enough time in one right now to need ventilated seats, massage, controllable ambient lighting etc.

 

[matacaster]

So, what is the break even period on an EV compared to a petrol or diesel? Note that there are warnings of road pricing or something else to claw back lost taxes. So should we trust a breakeven point on current tax rates, buy an EV and then get stuffed by chancellor?

 

[bspahh]

So, what is the break even period on an EV compared to a petrol or diesel? Note that there are warnings of road pricing or something else to claw back lost taxes. So should we trust a breakeven point on current tax rates, buy an EV and then get stuffed by chancellor?

Road pricing will cost just as much, or more, for petrol and diesel cars as it would be for an electric one.

It would affect the decision for whether it is best to spend money on a car, or on rearranging your home and workplace so you don't need to use a car as much.

 

[jon0844]

EVs have a high upfront cost, just as diesel cars did, so to break even quickly you need to drive a lot. You can perhaps factor in the savings on servicing if you intend to keep the car a long time (as against leasing it for 3-4 years).

This is why I can't justify an EV yet because of my usage needs. I need more cheap cars from China - in the sub £20k bracket. MG comes close, but even the new 'compact' model is arguably too big - and the other small cars are still trying hard to be bigger than they are.

If you do drive a lot, the savings of an EV can be huge. Sure, those savings will be slowly eaten up over time (with rising electricity costs and other taxes) but it serves as a bit of a reset, given I can't see how petrol or diesel cars are going to get cheaper over time.