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Do you think that the UK switching to electric vehicles is realistic?

Bletchleyite

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This is why I can't justify an EV yet because of my usage needs. I need more cheap cars from China - in the sub £20k bracket. MG comes close, but even the new 'compact' model is arguably too big - and the other small cars are still trying hard to be bigger than they are.

The MG estate is a medium estate, not a compact. It's in Vauxhall Astra/Ford Focus territory.

What you probably want is a used Nissan Leaf - loads about and by far the cheapest way to get an EV at the moment. If I wanted a compact hatch I'd have one by now.
 
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trebor79

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What you probably want is a used Nissan Leaf - loads about and by far the cheapest way to get an EV at the moment. If I wanted a compact hatch I'd have one by now.
I'd be very careful. Leafs can suffer from significant battery degradation if there's been any significant use of rapid charging. They are also useless if you have the occassional long journey with lots of issues of very slow charges at service stations due to battery temperature.
There is no thermal management of the battery at all, which is the root cause of these issues.
 

jon0844

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The MG estate is a medium estate, not a compact. It's in Vauxhall Astra/Ford Focus territory.

What you probably want is a used Nissan Leaf - loads about and by far the cheapest way to get an EV at the moment. If I wanted a compact hatch I'd have one by now.

I didn't say MG Estate. I said the new MG.

The MG 4 (may not be called that when it goes on sale) is most certainly not an estate! The site I linked to actually claims pricing starting at £26k, so that also rules it out. Maybe I should wait for a MG 3, 2 or 1!

As for the Leaf, it's only the newer ones that fixed the various issues - and I am not sure where you're looking because when I checked a couple of months ago, they'd gone up in price by loads. Given the uncertainty of these, I'd steer clear unless I personally knew someone selling one.

In a couple of years, we should have some better used EVs to buy. However, I'd really want to get one new, or as near-as new as possible.
 

8A Rail

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Is this in response to the Channel 5 programme tonight?

From my personal point of view the key factors against getting a pure electric car are the initial cost (at least 50% above the price of an equivalent ICE car), the range - especially as the battery ages (see below) and the sheer nonsensical use of gadgets and apps and subscriptions, so I'm holding out as long as I can while recognising it will have to come at some point.

.......................................... snip .........................................

A friend is in the market for a new car. He says he's found a lot of second-hand Leafs on the market, but almost without exception they come with batteries which can barely manage 50 miles on a full charge, and a cheap car doesn't look so cheap if the first thing you have to do is shell out £3k or so (it's difficult to find reliable prices online, I've seen up to £5k quoted for a first-gen battery pack) on a new battery pack.

M.

A most interesting breakdown of considering and owning an EV whether new or second hand. Your thoughts are appreciated.

However, strangely you have done a good job in giving reasons why you should not have an EV at this current time. It all comes down to cost and convenience. In the current climate gives less chance to consider an EV due to cost, battery life and range as yet needs to significantly improve and then add to that charging points whether public or private were are not sufficent in numbers / locations. I am not sure of the 'public' charging costs but I cannot imagine they are cheap? In otherwords you not charge the actual commerical / home electricity rate as the provider would need to add their costs as well as making a profit. How does that compare with the high cost of petrol along with the better range and conveninence of the latter? Is the difference really big between them allowing for the initial high cost of the EV? That is part I am unsure of but initial impression seems to suggest otherwise hence why petrol / diesel cars will remain around for long as possible.

The other factor that comes into this and think this in significant, is the second hand car market as this is huge. Current second hand EV's are few in numbers for starters but those that are available are limited in range along with few charging points. Consequently most people will not initially consider them as they are not viable especially for those people whose income is low as priorities are elsewhere. Their vehicles tend to be at least three years old or more. As things stand until new EV's over come the range and battery performance along with convenient charging points (as well as costs) and this filters down to the second hand market in numbers then purchases will remain slow. Again EV's have got to have a significant impact on the second hand market for everyone to drive EV's and that is the crux of the matter.

Yes this will all change in time I am sure, no choice given government guidelines but I am not sure that 2030 is a realistic target and wont surprise me if this date is extended. However for someone like me (In my 60's), I don't see me ever owing an EV as not economically viable or practicable.
 

Royston Vasey

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Yes but not until well into the 2030s, and the underlying reason, not unique to the UK, is a deepening chronic shortage of lithium through and until the end of this decade. The sodium ion battery is not sufficiently mature and the mining projects (mainly in China) take years to start production
 

jon0844

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Yes but not until well into the 2030s, and the underlying reason, not unique to the UK, is a deepening chronic shortage of lithium through and until the end of this decade. The sodium ion battery is not sufficiently mature and the mining projects (mainly in China) take years to start production

Aren't we supposed to have quite a lot in parts of the UK?
 

Ken H

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Yes but not until well into the 2030s, and the underlying reason, not unique to the UK, is a deepening chronic shortage of lithium through and until the end of this decade. The sodium ion battery is not sufficiently mature and the mining projects (mainly in China) take years to start production
Great. Putting a large part of our infrastructure in the hands of a foreign (maybe hostile) government. Super policy.
 

GLC

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My EV was 5 years old when I bought it, which I purchase using a small loan. The loan repayments are £280 p/m and here is a breakdown of the recent public chargers I have used. This roughly equates to 300 miles of range, and so far I’ve paid £7.32 for the pleasure. I don’t and can’t charge at home so I try exclusively on public chargers. Obviously I prioritise free chargers, but there are plenty of them around, basically anywhere I would realistically want to travel to. I’ve covered about 4000 miles since buying the car, and total energy costs including fee based chargers are currently at around £150. Had I been paying petrol to cover that same distance in my old (very) inefficient petrol car, I estimate I would have spent over £1000 to cover that same distance.

Obviously this is an unfair comparison as the Scottish Government is investing money in EV charging, hence their high availability and low price to incentivise a shift to EV, but that’s kind of the point of the incentives. Combined with £0 road tax, my EV has saved me far more money than I am spending on loan repayments. Buying an EV was the easiest no brainer I have seen in a long time (for my personal situation and lifestyle etc etc)
 

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Royston Vasey

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Aren't we supposed to have quite a lot in parts of the UK?
Yes, some, two start ups in Cornwall in particular, doing so from hard rock and lithium brine - I met both CEOs a couple of weeks ago in a work capacity. But the total is quite small compared to what is needed, and I'm sure anything they produce would be taken up quickly by British battery manufacturing, still leaving a large shortfall!

Where there is a lot of potential would be for the traditional automotive catalyst recycling businesses to transition from precious metals to lithium ion batteries (and they are already), and we can have all the secondary lithium we could ever need, and with a far smaller environmental impact to boot!

The Chinese primary lithium industry is expanding as fast as the Chinese battery and EV industry (plus players like Tesla in partnership with CATL) can take it.
 

Bald Rick

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So, what is the break even period on an EV compared to a petrol or diesel?

if you are in the market for a new car, and like the majority of new car customers looking at lease / PCP, the break even is immediate.

Great. Putting a large part of our infrastructure in the hands of a foreign (maybe hostile) government. Super policy.

a bit like many people buying German cars, say?
 

trebor79

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if you are in the market for a new car, and like the majority of new car customers looking at lease / PCP, the break even is immediate.
Not sure about that. Even on a PCP the monthly payments are much lower for an ICE car. Residual values are lower, but so is the starting price.
That said, I didn't even consider the ICE or hybrid version of the car I've ordered.
 

bspahh

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Not sure about that. Even on a PCP the monthly payments are much lower for an ICE car. Residual values are lower, but so is the starting price.
That said, I didn't even consider the ICE or hybrid version of the car I've ordered.
Last year, I looked for the cheapest electric, hybrid, diesel and petrol cars to run from the Fleet News running costs calculator https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/car-running-costs-calculator


For large cars, an electric Hyundai Ionic 5 was most expensive to buy, but cheapest to run, including running costs, depreciation etc.
 

Bald Rick

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Not sure about that. Even on a PCP the monthly payments are much lower for an ICE car. Residual values are lower, but so is the starting price.
That said, I didn't even consider the ICE or hybrid version of the car I've ordered.

yes perhaps I should have been more specific.

assuming you drive average mileage (c7000 miles a year), with an average amount of urban driving in that, then typically the extra PCP costs are immediately offset by the reduced ‘fuel’ costs, reduced maintenance, tax, etc.
 

matacaster

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Whilst the take up of electric cars is accelerating, can anyone shed any light on what proportion are from people buying outright for cash themselves, as before but via pcp or lease, company cars, cars where employee gets a cash equivalent to buy what they like? The reason I ask is that even the cheap EVs are significantly more than other fuelled cars and the specs are often nearer poverty than luxury in terms of comfort and appointment. What exactly are people who used to buy second hand car for less than £1000 going to get henceforth... the bus?
 

The Ham

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Whilst the take up of electric cars is accelerating, can anyone shed any light on what proportion are from people buying outright for cash themselves, as before but via pcp or lease, company cars, cars where employee gets a cash equivalent to buy what they like? The reason I ask is that even the cheap EVs are significantly more than other fuelled cars and the specs are often nearer poverty than luxury in terms of comfort and appointment. What exactly are people who used to buy second hand car for less than £1000 going to get henceforth... the bus?

Given that there's fairly few cars currently for less than £1,000 it's something that's likely to change soon if prices don't fall soon.

However the bigger issue is that of fuel costs. How fuel efficient is a £1,000 car going to be (probably more likely to be lower rather than higher). However if someone's doing 6,000 miles a year in a car averaging 50mpg that's likely to be nearly another £1,000, if that car averages 40mpg then that's nearly £1,200 (177p/l)
 

StKeverne1497

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yes perhaps I should have been more specific.

assuming you drive average mileage (c7000 miles a year), with an average amount of urban driving in that, then typically the extra PCP costs are immediately offset by the reduced ‘fuel’ costs, reduced maintenance, tax, etc.

I'm not sure how that works. In pure "fuel" terms (ignoring maintenance costs - I accept there's a difference, but I don't believe it is as massive as some claim), if I drive 600 miles a month (7,200 miles a year) in a car which does 55mpg (small Diesel town/ex-urban) and I pay £2/l for fuel (there isn't anywhere around here that charges that just yet, but it's probably coming), that's about £100 a month.

If I have a purely electric car which claims to do 300 miles on a 60kWh charge (that's better than most) and I have signed up for something like Octopus's EV cheap rate and do all my charging at 7.5p/kWh (that's their current rate around here), that comes to £9 a month.

Under those ideal circumstances, the finance, HP or PCP on an electric car can be no more than £90 more expensive than that on an ICE car if you want to "break even". It's worse than that though, because I already have a Diesel with no outstanding finance and I don't have an EV, and Octopus's EV rate comes with a daytime electricity rate (for cooking, cleaning, lighting, TV watching etc) which is currently about 16% higher than their standard flat-rate tariff, so all my other electricity use (let's call it 15kWh per day and 5p difference - it's probably more in the winter) adds another £22.50 per month to the "cost" of the EV.

I'm ignoring future electricity price rises because Diesel is also rising.

If I were to do half my charging at home at 7.5p and half at a public charger at 50p (an effective cost of 28.75p), charging the EV would cost £34.50 so the saving in "fuel" is now just £65.50 per month, or £43 including increased daytime electricity costs.

A 4-year PCP on the cheapest MG EV (the ZS) with a £5,000 deposit and 8,000 miles a year works out to £311 per month with a final payment of £11,800ish

A 4-year PCP on the equivalent MG ZS with a petrol engine, £5,000 deposit and 8,000 miles a year works out to £160 per month with a final payment of under £8,400

I don't think this equates to extra finance costs being "immediately offset". In fact under those conditions, buying and running a new EV costs at least £50 - £70 more per month than buying and running a new petrol car (petrol cars doing fewer miles per gallon than Diesel, but the fuel being slightly cheaper) and you could also add in another £70 per month to account for the difference in final payment, if the intention is to hang on to the car.

It does work rather better if you do more miles. I actually do around 24,000 miles a year in a car which regularly achieves over 60mpg. That amount of mileage might not be possible on some PCPs but leaving that aside, at £2/l that would cost me around £303 a month in Diesel while the electricity - assuming 250 miles / 60kWh because a lot of my driving is motorway and EVs are less efficient on the motorway - would be around £36 (at 7.5p). That £270ish difference is quite a lot of finance, though it reduces to £165 if charging works out to 28.75p/kWh and I think you'd be hard pushed to finance an EV at less than £300 a month, let alone £165 a month.

My point? Yes, an EV is cheaper to run than a Diesel car, however it's not so much of a difference as to make swapping on purely financial grounds viable for me, or for many people I know, even were I needing to buy a new car anyway, and I'm rather hoping to get at least another 5 years out of my current car!

Since I don't have to buy a new car just yet, it's far, far cheaper for me to stick with my Diesel. My next car, in 5 years or so? So long as I can be confident of the range (on the motorway, in the winter, with the battery down to 70% of as-new capacity), definitely electric, but with battery warranties commonly around the 100,000 mile mark, that's only four or five years' driving for me, which isn't a terribly exciting prospect.

M.
 

trebor79

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Since I don't have to buy a new car just yet, it's far, far cheaper for me to stick with my Diesel. My next car, in 5 years or so? So long as I can be confident of the range (on the motorway, in the winter, with the battery down to 70% of as-new capacity), definitely electric, but with battery warranties commonly around the 100,000 mile mark, that's only four or five years' driving for me, which isn't a terribly exciting prospect.
Take a look at the new Nissan Ariya. Battery warranty is 10 years, or 650,000 miles, whichever is reached first. And yes, you read that right six hundred and fifty thousand miles!
 

kevin_roche

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I just got back from a tour of Scotland in my Prius Plug-In Hybrid. On the way up to Scotland stopped 6 times on the motorway on the way there hoping to charge the car but only found a free space twice. In Ullapool I booked a hotel right next to the charging point which worked for 2 days in a row and failed on the 3rd. Next 3 charging points were all not working because of a communications error. Then I found one that worked. At Wick the PodPoint charger at Tesco worked but when I got to Inverness there was a Queue for the chargers. I'm so glad I got a hybrid that will also work on Petrol.

I gave up stopping to charge on the way back after that.
 
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StKeverne1497

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Take a look at the new Nissan Ariya. Battery warranty is 10 years, or 650,000 miles, whichever is reached first. And yes, you read that right six hundred and fifty thousand miles!
Could you point me in the direction of a link for that information please? Because I've been looking at the Ariya on the Nissan website, and having not found any warranty information to confirm the above on the website itself, just five minutes ago I downloaded the PDF brochure, where it says on p20:

8 years / 100,000 miles warranty on the Nissan ARIYA
Lithium-ion battery, protecting against full capacity
loss of below 9 bars out of 12 on the ARIYA's capacity gauge
Which strikes me as fairly bog standard and nowhere near 650,000 miles.

M.
 
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KenA

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The question is not is it realistic but when will it be realistic. Currently for a majority of the population it isn't, for the reasons you stated as well as the cost.
The national grid cannot cope neither

T Homes are normally fused at a 100A with a single phase supply. Enough to slow charge an EV just but the local grid which ids the cabling from the homes to the local substation will need up grading and a new substation put in if there is any significant uptake of eV's. Many homes have 2 or 3 cars
 

Bletchleyite

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The national grid cannot cope neither

T Homes are normally fused at a 100A with a single phase supply. Enough to slow charge an EV just but the local grid which ids the cabling from the homes to the local substation will need up grading and a new substation put in if there is any significant uptake of eV's. Many homes have 2 or 3 cars

People keep saying this but as long as people are only charging with a "slow" charger at home, which is fine as you'd just plug in overnight, it's not actually true. The grid can quite happily cope with each house having a couple of electric fires on at once (as they used to years ago before gas central heating became common), and it's no worse than that.
 

Ken H

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People keep saying this but as long as people are only charging with a "slow" charger at home, which is fine as you'd just plug in overnight, it's not actually true. The grid can quite happily cope with each house having a couple of electric fires on at once (as they used to years ago before gas central heating became common), and it's no worse than that.
2 car families will probably need a 3 phase supply. Deffo not normal domestic supply. My daughter is a 4 car family - 2 grown up kids still at home. So far only 1 EV but any more will be an issue.
 

KenA

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People keep saying this but as long as people are only charging with a "slow" charger at home, which is fine as you'd just plug in overnight, it's not actually true. The grid can quite happily cope with each house having a couple of electric fires on at once (as they used to years ago before gas central heating became common), and it's no worse than that.
V's put a massive load on the grid. The local cabling and substation will simply not be up to it if every o the substation plugs in a couple of EV's. Not many people use electric fires most use gas central heating and before that it would have been a gas fire or coal
 

Bletchleyite

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V's put a massive load on the grid. The local cabling and substation will simply not be up to it if every o the substation plugs in a couple of EV's. Not many people use electric fires most use gas central heating and before that it would have been a gas fire or coal

Lots of people used to use electric fires.

What you're basically saying is that the grid can't cope with everyone drawing 13A at once (hardly anything else is drawing power overnight), and that's simply not true. It kills the concept of storage heating, which is rubbish anyway, but apart from that...
 

jon0844

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7.5kW is little more than two heaters, and I've had three 3kW heaters on when our boiler failed. I am sure an electric oven and hob must consume rather a lot too, if all was on at once.

Thus for most people, I'm sure the supply is fine to charge one car overnight - and with smart charging, you could do two.
 

Ken H

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7.5kW is little more than two heaters, and I've had three 3kW heaters on when our boiler failed. I am sure an electric oven and hob must consume rather a lot too, if all was on at once.

Thus for most people, I'm sure the supply is fine to charge one car overnight - and with smart charging, you could do two.
but then you have an expensive bit of kit that is useless for half the day. What about going to evening stuff, or being dads taxi. or caring for an elderly relative.
There is nothing like the 10pm phone call. 'Hi, Sorry but Dads not too well. Can you come?'
 

trebor79

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but then you have an expensive bit of kit that is useless for half the day. What about going to evening stuff, or being dads taxi. or caring for an elderly relative.
There is nothing like the 10pm phone call. 'Hi, Sorry but Dads not too well. Can you come?'
It's useless for the exact same period that your petrol powered car is useless - when you're in bed, asleep. If you get that call it's highly unlikely that there will be zero charge in your car. You might have to drop into a rapid charger if it's very low.
Cars like the EV6 and Ionic 5 will add 100 miles of range in about 5 - 10 minutes, which is comparable to a petrol station fill and pay time. It's no different to if you got the call and had not much petrol in your car now. In fact, with an EV it's considerably LESS likely, as you "fuel" it at home. Unless you're driving 200 miles a day, reality is you'd always going to be over 50% charge.

I've got my first EV on order, having been absolutely of the opinion they are expensive and impractical, and can't wait for the day it arrive and can ditch one of our old gas guzzlers. Currently working out how to purchase the second, I suspect the coming recession may offer some opportunity.
 

apk55

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The normal domestic supply for an average house in an area with gas supplies for heating is set at about 3KW average and 6KW peak. The substation and the main feeders will be scaled for that. That does not stop an odd house taking more that, provided the neighboring hoses take less. Some users like myself (single and careful) use less typically between 4 and 8 units a day. My maximum usage is a 7KW shower that is only used for a few minuets a day.

However if most the houses in my road start putting 7KW chargers on simultaneously for long periods the feeder cable to the road and substation could overheat and fail. This could be worse in some area where there has been infill development or more hoses added, for example a large hose demolished and a block of flats built in its place. With increasing efficiency of domestic appliances such as LED lamps they have been able to get away without major work. However if many of these houses start fitting electric car chargers overload problems could occur and they may need to replace the cables in the street and the substation transformer
 

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