Do you think that the UK switching to electric vehicles is realistic?

[Noddy]

Apparently there is a fudge factor that allows avoiding fines in one year. EV sales were only 19.6% when the mandate said 22%. They can't pull that trick for a second year so we'll see if they can manage growth to hit 28% this year.

There’s other factors at play, for example certain hybrids qualify for credits (not as many as EVs but some none the less). So companies that sell a lot of hybrids (eg Toyota, Renault) can get away with selling far fewer full EVs. You can also buy credits from other companies that have surplus (eg Tesla, BYD).

 

[jon0844]

I'm in the South of France this week, my rental is a Polestar 2. It is remarkable how much more advanced (and cheaper) their charging infrastructure is. I paid €0.55/ kWh at a motorway service station - it would be not far off double that in the UK.

And yet, I don't feel there are anywhere near as many electric cars here as there are in the UK - I wonder why. Possibly the french are used to driving much longer distances?

Do they have any markings to show you? You see more EVs here because the green strip on the plate is quite noticeable.

I bet there are quite a few on the road, and thankfully there are signs that we're getting some competition in the UK to bring public charger prices down (but there's still a way to go).

 

[trebor79]

Apparently there is a fudge factor that allows avoiding fines in one year. EV sales were only 19.6% when the mandate said 22%. They can't pull that trick for a second year so we'll see if they can manage growth to hit 28% this year.

Also they can buy credits from other manufacturers, and get some credits by making petrol models more efficient.
I don't agree with weakening the rules. I think it's morally indefensible to keep pumping poison into the air we all breathe when there is a perfectly good (actually better) alternative.

 

[jon0844]

Also they can buy credits from other manufacturers, and get some credits by making petrol models more efficient.
I don't agree with weakening the rules. I think it's morally indefensible to keep pumping poison into the air we all breathe when there is a perfectly good (actually better) alternative.

I do hope more people will switch long before being forced to (if buying new), having not been taken in by narratives spread by special interest groups keen to keep ICEs going.

As more people get them, they'll tell their friends and family that they're not terrible and don't need a new battery every few years. And then perhaps people will ignore all the anti-EV stuff.

 

[AM9]

I do hope more people will switch long before being forced to (if buying new), having not been taken in by narratives spread by special interest groups keen to keep ICEs going.

As more people get them, they'll tell their friends and family that they're not terrible and don't need a new battery every few years. And then perhaps people will ignore all the anti-EV stuff.

There'll only be the conspiracy theorists left then, - once it's down to them they will encounter an increasingly rocky road with:

the hydrocarbon fuel industry seeing petrol distribution as unprofitable thereby increasing costs whilst putting the retial price ever higher and available at fewer and fewer outlets​

and​

various nudges from local government e.g. severe restrictions on where polluting exhaust can go, and limited parking for non-electric vehicles​

and​

stronger deterrents from central government e.g. higher overall taxes for road use, higher insurance costs for fire risks, the removal of all tax concessions for fossil fuel benefits in kind​

then they might as well give up driving.

 

[Mawkie]

I do hope more people will switch long before being forced to (if buying new), having not been taken in by narratives spread by special interest groups keen to keep ICEs going.

As more people get them, they'll tell their friends and family that they're not terrible and don't need a new battery every few years. And then perhaps people will ignore all the anti-EV stuff.

There'll only be the conspiracy theorists left then, - once it's down to them they will encounter an increasingly rocky road with:

the hydrocarbon fuel industry seeing petrol distribution as unprofitable thereby increasing costs whilst putting the retial price ever higher and available at fewer and fewer outlets​

and​

various nudges from local government e.g. severe restrictions on where polluting exhaust can go, and limited parking for non-electric vehicles​

and​

stronger deterrents from central government e.g. higher overall taxes for road use, higher insurance costs for fire risks, the removal of all tax concessions for fossil fuel benefits in kind​

then they might as well give up driving.

Some of us don't get enough credit from people to make decisions based on facts, rather than being taken in by conspiracy theories!

The elephant in the room is that a lot people can't charge at home (or work), and won't pay 89p a unit to charge at Shell or BP, or Unity, or any of the others.

What is the break even point for my 60mpg Yaris compared to a small BEV that can manage 4.5miles per kWh? 30p per unit?

I'm happy to change to BEV, in fact keen to, but not at a cost of 30 minutes charging every week or two and increased fuel and insurance costs.

 

[NIT100]

Some of us don't get enough credit from people to make decisions based on facts, rather than being taken in by conspiracy theories!

The elephant in the room is that a lot people can't charge at home (or work), and won't pay 89p a unit to charge at Shell or BP, or Unity, or any of the others.

What is the break even point for my 60mpg Yaris compared to a small BEV that can manage 4.5miles per kWh? 30p per unit?

I'm happy to change to BEV, in fact keen to, but not at a cost of 30 minutes charging every week or two and increased fuel and insurance costs.

This is a good point. About 49p/kWh is break even point on 60mpg at £1.42 per litre petrol, and if you are achieving 4.5miles per kWh. Zapmap latest figure has average slow/fast chargers at 50p/kWh and 80p/kWh for Rapid/Ultra-Rapid. At £1.42 per litre petrol and 80p/kWh for Rapid Charge, 4.5miles per kWh and 36mpg are about the break-even point. So many older cars, still might be beneficial to change to electric with-out access to home charging, but a more modern petrol or hybrid, will cost more in fuel.

I don't see the cost of rapid charging falling much below 80p/kWh, once infrastructure, land and ongoing connection costs are considered, it is not a hugely inflated price.

 

[Mawkie]

At £1.42 per litre petrol and 80p/kWh for Rapid Charge, 4.5miles per kWh and 36mpg are about the break-even point.

Thanks, that is better than I thought.

I don't see the cost of rapid charging falling much below 80p/kWh, once infrastructure, land and ongoing connection costs are considered, it is not a hugely inflated price.

I watch a lot of the YouTube channels, in particular Electric Trucker, who often quotes very much cheaper rapid charging in other European countries. He recently did a road trip Germany, France, and Spain, and the prices were no where near 80p kWh. Seems like lower prices can happen if the will is there.

I also seem to remember Tesla UK have some very cheap off peak rapid charging, and lots of chargers are available to non Tesla drivers. Do you think this is some kind of loss-leader, or are they still making a profit, even though they have the same high land prices, and overheads as other operators (even on the same 'forecourt')?

 

[NIT100]

He recently did a road trip Germany, France, and Spain, and the prices were no where near 80p kWh. Seems like lower prices can happen if the will is there.

In most European countries, commercial electricity per kWh is cheaper than domestic, and is also generally cheaper per kWh. In the UK, particularly for smaller commercial connections, commercial is more expensive than donestic.

Taking France as an example, I believe all electricity is taxed at 5.5% VAT, while the UK commercial connections are charged at 20% VAT, including public chargers. That will make a big difference.

Generally, just tracks cost per kWh with overheads added on to that in each country.

Good table here from 2024: EV charging in Europe and the UK: where is cheapest to charge?

As an aside, availability of home charging in the UK is very good (if you have space). Typical UK house has 100A supply at nominal 230V, so 23kW. A typical Italian property has a 15A supply at about 220V, so 3.3kW. You can apply for an 'upgraded' supply for 6.6kW, but that is now discouraged as it was generally used for A/C. They just know they cant run the oven and washing machine at the same time!

 

[jon0844]

Some of us don't get enough credit from people to make decisions based on facts, rather than being taken in by conspiracy theories!

The elephant in the room is that a lot people can't charge at home (or work), and won't pay 89p a unit to charge at Shell or BP, or Unity, or any of the others.

What is the break even point for my 60mpg Yaris compared to a small BEV that can manage 4.5miles per kWh? 30p per unit?

I'm happy to change to BEV, in fact keen to, but not at a cost of 30 minutes charging every week or two and increased fuel and insurance costs.

Do you average 50mpg? My car can do over 50mpg too but my long term average is 39.

Oh short trips, which a lot of people mostly do, it's around 25-30mpg.

An EV actually does best on lower speed city driving so it's swings and roundabouts and I'd say it favours the car owner that isn't doing loads of long distance trips every single day.

Those that do and opt to fill up at a motorway services and pay 10p a litre more or 89p per kWh are fools, or have someone else paying. As people do use them, companies will charge more.

You or I don't have to be one of those people. My car tells me petrol prices and the same apps exist for electric charging, with many navigation apps even planning routes to include those stops - which my navigation can't do for petrol.

 

[Bald Rick]

Those that do and opt to fill up at a motorway services and pay 10p a litre more

More than 30p/litre more for petrol / diesel at motorway services comoared to supermarkets right next to motorway junctions, in my experience.

 

[trebor79]

Some of us don't get enough credit from people to make decisions based on facts, rather than being taken in by conspiracy theories!

The elephant in the room is that a lot people can't charge at home (or work), and won't pay 89p a unit to charge at Shell or BP, or Unity, or any of the others.

What is the break even point for my 60mpg Yaris compared to a small BEV that can manage 4.5miles per kWh? 30p per unit?

I'm happy to change to BEV, in fact keen to, but not at a cost of 30 minutes charging every week or two and increased fuel and insurance costs.

There are many places you can charge at less than the break even price. Tesla for rapid charging, and most AC destination chargers are at a similar price point, or even free.
Charging in car parks etc is becoming ubiquitous and so you'll just plug it in whilst you're at the shops, going to the doctor's or whatever.
Both our cars are EVs and it's very very rare we have to make specific plans to charge the car. We do my have a charger at home but I work away a lot at the moment so I can only charge there once or twice a week.

 

[AM9]

Some of us don't get enough credit from people to make decisions based on facts, rather than being taken in by conspiracy theories!

The elephant in the room is that a lot people can't charge at home (or work), and won't pay 89p a unit to charge at Shell or BP, or Unity, or any of the others.

What is the break even point for my 60mpg Yaris compared to a small BEV that can manage 4.5miles per kWh? 30p per unit?

I'm happy to change to BEV, in fact keen to, but not at a cost of 30 minutes charging every week or two and increased fuel and insurance costs.

It's the conspiracy theorists that I'm talking about. Public charging is slowly getting more competitive, (except for motorway service stations which are as overpriced as for petrol/diesel too). However much the deadline for new fossil fuel burners is extended, as the balance of EVs on the road exceeds them the costs of clinging on to IC vehicles will streadily rise, and as I said above the freedom to drive them anywhere will steadily be reduced.

 

[Mawkie]

I don't want to pinpoint anyone in particular on the forum, as everyone has the best intentions when putting forward their points of view, but we need to accept that a BEV simply isn't suitable for everyone at the moment.

I personally hate driving, it's a necessary evil that I derive no pleasure from. I use the car solely to get to work (15 miles each way I suppose) due to the extreme work patterns I do. I walk to the shop. I cycle if I need to go further. For holidays I use the train.

So, on the face of it, a BEV would suit my needs perfectly - LU are introducing a salary sacrifice scheme imminently, 100% town driving, relatively low weekly mileage, small cars preferred. But my next car will be another Yaris hybrid because, although I see all sides of it, and study the zap map monthly for new chargers, I just can't see myself utilising destination chargers as I don't go anywhere! So that means driving to somewhere and sitting to charge, which I don't want to do - the rapid chargers on the way to work are only the expensive 'big boys' and no charging at work (coz LU apparently doesn't have enough electricity?!), and no lamp post or local charging where I could leave it overnight on a slow charge.

So, for now, it's an evil hybrid, but we must accept that everyone has their own needs, and even if they can see all the benefits of BEVs, there are also drawbacks.

 

[jon0844]

30 miles a day means you'll likely need to charge an EV once a week If you can do that in 20-25 minutes, is it that much of a hardship if you can plug in when you pop to Tesco or somewhere? I know you say you walk or cycle, but perhaps it's worth making the occasional trip by car to charge?

Surely you drive somewhere else other than work?

And I think I'd be fine just sitting in my car for 20 minutes if necessary. I can find the time to use my phone and check this forum or whatever. I'm happy to sit in my car to wait for a car wash for a similar period of time (including the queuing time).

A hybrid just introduces more expense for an engine that needs to be maintained like any ordinary ICE vehicle - and if you're saying you won't charge the battery then why have a hybrid at all? Might as well just get a 1 or 1.2 litre petrol?

Personally, I'd say an EV would work for you. It might require minor changes to your routine, but when you need to get your first service and find it costs £40-50 you'll probably be quite happy even if you've paid for charging at a rate that doesn't save you a fortune over petrol (but I am still WILL still save you some money).

 

[Noddy]

More than 30p/litre more for petrol / diesel at motorway services comoared to supermarkets right next to motorway junctions, in my experience.

Completely different in the EV charging world though! The most expensive networks according to ZapMap are Instavolt (87p), which only operates at one MSA, and Shell (69-89p), Osprey (82p), BP (85p) and GeniePoint (88p) which don’t have any MSA sites at all. Gridserve which operate at virtually all Moto and RoadChef MSAs is 79p via their App and Ionity which operates at all Extra sites is 74p but signup for the free Electroverse card and it drops to 70p. Westmorland (Tebay/Gloucester/Cairn Lodge) is 69p. If you are prepared to ignore world events some Tesla chargers at MSAs are open to all and will be even cheaper. On the other hand Sainsburys SmartCharge is 72p and MFG (Morrisons) is 79p, exactly the same as Gridserve!

 

[telstarbox]

What's happening with motorbikes - are they becoming electric too?

 

[Bletchleyite]

What's happening with motorbikes - are they becoming electric too?

Motorbikes are far less of an issue because (a) almost none are diesel, and (b) they are much smaller and lighter and so consume less fuel. But yes, electric motorcycles are increasingly a thing, and not just the illegal ones used by food couriers, proper ones too.

 

[Bertiethebobby]

In the UK there are 46 million litres of petrol and 74 million litres of diesel sold every day for road vehicles alone. It seems to me that represents a huge amount of energy that's got to come from electricity if all vehicles were to convert to EV. We're going to need a massive increase in generating capacity to even make a dent in those figures.

 

[Harpers Tate]

That "issue" that comes up from time to time is apparently not an issue at all - according to those who (should) know:

Can the UK grid cope with the extra demand from electric cars? | National Grid Group

As electric vehicles (EVs) become more widespread, this is one of the most common questions we’re asked. Find out what we're doing to make sure we're ready.

www.nationalgrid.com

 

[GLC]

I also seem to remember Tesla UK have some very cheap off peak rapid charging, and lots of chargers are available to non Tesla drivers. Do you think this is some kind of loss-leader, or are they still making a profit, even though they have the same high land prices, and overheads as other operators (even on the same 'forecourt')?

AIUI, Tesla (very intentionally) secured long leases for the spots their chargers take, back when EVs were a novelty, and owners of car parks though it was a nice little wheeze to make some money from otherwise unmonetised land. Now that EVs are more mainstream, and car parks have cottoned on to the value their land has for EV chargers, the rent for other charge networks looking for space has increased dramatically, which is partly why prices at rapid chargers are so expensive. Tesla chargers were (prior to the latest v4 chargers) functionally cheaper to install and maintain, as all of the payment logic was handled by the car, so there was no need for screens, contactless payment pads, multiple plug types on the charger itself.

 

[MotCO]

I don't want to pinpoint anyone in particular on the forum, as everyone has the best intentions when putting forward their points of view, but we need to accept that a BEV simply isn't suitable for everyone at the moment.

I personally hate driving, it's a necessary evil that I derive no pleasure from. I use the car solely to get to work (15 miles each way I suppose) due to the extreme work patterns I do. I walk to the shop. I cycle if I need to go further. For holidays I use the train.

So, on the face of it, a BEV would suit my needs perfectly - LU are introducing a salary sacrifice scheme imminently, 100% town driving, relatively low weekly mileage, small cars preferred. But my next car will be another Yaris hybrid because, although I see all sides of it, and study the zap map monthly for new chargers, I just can't see myself utilising destination chargers as I don't go anywhere! So that means driving to somewhere and sitting to charge, which I don't want to do - the rapid chargers on the way to work are only the expensive 'big boys' and no charging at work (coz LU apparently doesn't have enough electricity?!), and no lamp post or local charging where I could leave it overnight on a slow charge.

So, for now, it's an evil hybrid, but we must accept that everyone has their own needs, and even if they can see all the benefits of BEVs, there are also drawbacks.

But if you only do 7800 miles a year, then the higher purchase or lease cost of an EV over an ICE would not make it worth your while. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/electric-car-calculator/

 

[Bletchleyite]

In the UK there are 46 million litres of petrol and 74 million litres of diesel sold every day for road vehicles alone. It seems to me that represents a huge amount of energy that's got to come from electricity if all vehicles were to convert to EV. We're going to need a massive increase in generating capacity to even make a dent in those figures.

We're not, because much charging will be overnight when other demand is low. The idea of Economy 7 might not have long to live though!

 

[Class 317]

In the UK there are 46 million litres of petrol and 74 million litres of diesel sold every day for road vehicles alone. It seems to me that represents a huge amount of energy that's got to come from electricity if all vehicles were to convert to EV. We're going to need a massive increase in generating capacity to even make a dent in those figures.

That's the primary energy needed not the useful energy that drives the car etc. EV's will need around half or less the primary energy.

 

[Bald Rick]

In the UK there are 46 million litres of petrol and 74 million litres of diesel sold every day for road vehicles alone. It seems to me that represents a huge amount of energy that's got to come from electricity if all vehicles were to convert to EV. We're going to need a massive increase in generating capacity to even make a dent in those figures.

This has been explained at length earlier in this thread and elsewhere. In short:

1) When every car is EV - which won’t be for another 20 years at least - the average extra demand on the grid will be the equivalent of 10GW continuous. This represents approx a 30% increase in electricity demand on an annualised basis.

2) Within 5 years the GB National Grid will have connected and commissioned a further 20GW+ of offshore wind power alone, plus scores of smaller onshore wind power projects and at least a further 15-20GW of solar power. Obviously this is all intermittent, but the annualised effect of this by 2030 will be well over the extra 10GW average needed to cover an all EV car fleet by 2045.

3) There will be a further 20GW+ of wind (8GW annualised) connected and commissioned between 2030-2035.

The intermittent effect of wind and solar could be an issue, as supply and demand won’t always be the same at any given time. Therefore we will need batteries to store the energy when it is generated, so that it is available when needed. Fortunately, every road EV has a battery.

 

[Bertiethebobby]

That's the primary energy needed not the useful energy that drives the car etc. EV's will need around half or less the primary energy.

I've just read the previous posts and am thinking!

 

[RailWonderer]

And I think I'd be fine just sitting in my car for 20 minutes if necessary. I can find the time to use my phone and check this forum or whatever. I'm happy to sit in my car to wait for a car wash for a similar period of time (including the queuing time).

A word of advice, avoid using car washes, they ruin your bodywork. handwashing is always better.

It's the conspiracy theorists that I'm talking about. Public charging is slowly getting more competitive, (except for motorway service stations which are as overpriced as for petrol/diesel too). However much the deadline for new fossil fuel burners is extended, as the balance of EVs on the road exceeds them the costs of clinging on to IC vehicles will streadily rise, and as I said above the freedom to drive them anywhere will steadily be reduced.

A lot of conspiracy theorists are performance engine enthusiasts. EVs will replace the economy engine but the performance engine has no true replacement and the demand is and will always be high for the performance engine and enough people will continue driving them for some petrol stations to remain open. Britain invented car culture and we have the grandest oldest history of motoring so I highly doubt we ever see the end of enthusiast driving even if it's for weekend use mostly.

 

[AM9]

A lot of conspiracy theorists are performance engine enthusiasts. EVs will replace the economy engine but the performance engine has no true replacement and the demand is and will always be high for the performance engine and enough people will continue driving them for some petrol stations to remain open. Britain invented car culture and we have the grandest oldest history of motoring so I highly doubt we ever see the end of enthusiast driving even if it's for weekend use mostly.

There are plenty of climate change denyers who aren't what you would call performance engine enthusiasts, they just don't want to accept change. Possibly there will be enthusiast weekend motoring, but IMO it will be at a premium cost, both in terms of taxing licensing and road access, more akin to the way that classic cars are restricted. CO2 and pollutant emitting vehicles will not be unrestricted on public roads in years to come.

 

[Harpers Tate]

they just don't want to accept change.....

Indeed. Like those who repeatedly announce that they don't want to "waste" {insert period of time here} sitting around waiting for a charge and who utterly can't cope with the concept of doing routine shopping or other activity while that is happening. Because as we all know - all those who can't charge at home and therefore need to use remote chargers, don't ever, ever go to a supermarket to shop. Because, as we all know - you absolutely have no alternative but to stand or sit around twiddling your thumbs while it charges because that's the closest equivalent behaviour - which cannot be altered - to what you have to do to refill an ICE and that, of course, takes no time at all.

 

[E27007]

A lot of conspiracy theorists are performance engine enthusiasts. EVs will replace the economy engine but the performance engine has no true replacement

If by "performance enthusiast" we refer to the faction of 0-60 mph in a tiny number of seconds of time, then a ZEV with a battery able to release a lot of electrical energy for a burst of a few seconds would yield such performance, probably more rapid acceleration than an IC engine.