Does the Government know how people are behaving

[Bikeman78]

If that is the case (and you may well be right) then the expectation must have been extremely low!

Another point which springs to mind, compliance was perhaps better once things like pubs were forced to close. We all remember the scenes of packed pubs during the “advisory” period.

It's quite likely that people went to the pub knowing that they would soon shut. I made lots of train journeys between March 14-20. Most of them were nearly empty. Peak time valley trains were so quiet that you could have seated everyone in a two car. Normally four cars are packed. Even during the week March 9-13 the number of people travelling, or out and about generally, was way down on normal.

 

[mmh]

It's quite likely that people went to the pub knowing that they would soon shut. I made lots of train journeys between March 14-20. Most of them were nearly empty. Peak time valley trains were so quiet that you could have seated everyone in a two car. Normally four cars are packed. Even during the week March 9-13 the number of people travelling, or out and about generally, was way down on normal.

My anecdotal experience is that the packed pubs were a myth, if anything they were significantly quieter than normal. The final Tuesday before lockdown was St Patrick's Day, traditionally a busy day for pubs - it wasn't. The usual Guinness and shamrocks promotions didn't happen. Sport had already gone. Even Wetherspoon was quiet. Even back then, people were willing things to be worse in order to be proven right. My social media accounts were busy with people outraged at how packed the pubs in Conwy were on the final Friday. Two problems there:

1. In order to know they were, you'd have to be in one yourself, surely.
2. They weren't, I was there.

It did set a theme for the lockdown though, the concept of going somewhere then complaining at how many people are there with no self-awareness.

 

[ainsworth74]

I do wonder if people who talk about "send in the Army" are actually aware of how small the British Army is these days? The whole thing regulars and reservists is around 100,000 people. That's it. With the greatest will in the world even if you somehow mobilised every single one of them onto the streets (considering not all of them are line infantry) you're not going to be able to control very much of any major population centre better than the police can.

 

[bramling]

My anecdotal experience is that the packed pubs were a myth, if anything they were significantly quieter than normal. The final Tuesday before lockdown was St Patrick's Day, traditionally a busy day for pubs - it wasn't. The usual Guinness and shamrocks promotions didn't happen. Sport had already gone. Even Wetherspoon was quiet. Even back then, people were willing things to be worse in order to be proven right. My social media accounts were busy with people outraged at how packed the pubs in Conwy were on the final Friday. Two problems there:

1. In order to know they were, you'd have to be in one yourself, surely.
2. They weren't, I was there.

It did set a theme for the lockdown though, the concept of going somewhere then complaining at how many people are there with no self-awareness.

They were certainly busy still in London, although I’d add a caveat that many were quite possibly sitting outside so they may have been quieter inside. It perhaps didn’t help that there was still a conspicuous attitude among some younger people at that time of “why should I modify my ways when I’m unlikely to be affected?”.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Indeed the prevailing mood on this very forum in mid March was pro-lockdown. I well recall a thread where I would give my observations as someone going to the local pubs after work most afternoons. Some thought that was outrageous behaviour and akin to being a murderer. I was in my usual pub when it was ordered to close. With each day leading to closure it had become quieter and quieter - the atmosphere of fear in the nation was well advanced by the time lockdown happened.

When people on this and other forums argue that the lockdown should have started a week or so earlier, it's very instructive to use Google's "custom search by date" feature to see what the stats were back then.

Here, for example, is a BBC page from 13 March, 10 days before the lockdown commenced.

Coronavirus: UK measures defended after criticism

The government defends its coronavirus plans as confirmed cases rise to 798.

www.bbc.co.uk

Defending the government's approach, Sir Patrick told BBC Radio 4's Today programme people were most likely to get an infection from "a family member or friend in a small space, not in a big space".

He said the first set of measures was "actually rather large", adding that the government's latest move - advising people to self-isolate for seven days if they have a cough or fever - was "a big change".

Sir Patrick said officials were also considering advising whole households to stay at home if one person had coronavirus. "That may come in later," he said.

He said closing schools was a "very effective way of dealing with pandemic flu" but that with this coronavirus, "the role of children is less clear in terms of spreading the disease".

At that stage there had been only 11 deaths and just 798 confirmed cases and the scientific mood was more "self-isolate if you have symptoms rather than a full lockdown for everyone. I reckon that, had lockdown been enforced that early, people would have refused to obey it, with most of us feeling it would be a hysterical overreaction.

 

[DelW]

Considering that (at least one) high profile person at the heart of government completely disregarded the rules in the early days, and that most of the cabinet were then trotted out like sheep to make feeble excuses for him (/ them), the government set an example of "comply if you feel like it", so it's hardly surprising that many are disregarding the ever changing "rules" now.

I'm not at all condoning such behaviour, but people in government should have been setting an example, not undermining it.

 

[greyman42]

I’m not sure about the govt as a whole, however I do get the feeling Boris himself is rather out of touch with reality. His whole strategy seems to be based on keeping people happy by throwing out pleasers like pubs opening.

I don't think it was just done as a pleaser, more to try and get the economy moving again. Without the pubs their will be virtually no tourism and the retail sector struggles without them as well as shopping then going for a drink and something to eat is a popular day out.

 

[Cardiff123]

Good old 'British common sense', which is what Johnson now wants us to use to 'control the virus', has resulted in emergency services along the south coast of England declaring a major incident as emergency services can't cope with the sheer numbers of people who've all used their 'common sense' and decided to crowd onto packed beaches during a pandemic and public health emergency.

The UK Westminster government know full well people are idiots. But by saying people should use their 'common sense' and not telling people what to do, the blame can be squarely placed on the public when the second wave comes later in the summer.

And the right wing free libertarians who want all the coronavirus rules and restrictions relaxed immediately wonder why Scotland and Wales have been much more cautious in easing their virus restrictions?

Major incident declared as people flock to England's south coast

Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole council says services are ‘completely overstretched’ as visitors defy advice to stay away

www.theguardian.com

 

[HSTEd]

I do wonder if people who talk about "send in the Army" are actually aware of how small the British Army is these days? The whole thing regulars and reservists is around 100,000 people. That's it. With the greatest will in the world even if you somehow mobilised every single one of them onto the streets (considering not all of them are line infantry) you're not going to be able to control very much of any major population centre better than the police can.

Well that simply depends on the methods used.

Ultimately this is why rifles have an "automatic" setting........

(And no, I am not personally suggesting that - just pointing out that it is technicological possible)

And the right wing free libertarians who want all the coronavirus rules and restrictions relaxed immediately wonder why Scotland and Wales have been much more cautious in easing their virus restrictions?

One can oppose this insanity and not be a "right wing libertarian".
I am pretty far from that.

But I can recognise the colossal damage being inflicted in a desperate attempt to delay the inevitable.
Those people who the virus were going to kill were dead the day it emerged, that is just the way it is.

This is not the black death, and historically basically nothing else has justified anythign approaching the methods being used now.

 

[bramling]

Good old 'British common sense', which is what Johnson now wants us to use to 'control the virus', has resulted in emergency services along the south coast of England declaring a major incident as emergency services can't cope with the sheer numbers of people who've all used their 'common sense' and decided to crowd onto packed beaches during a pandemic and public health emergency.

The UK Westminster government know full well people are idiots. But by saying people should use their 'common sense' and not telling people what to do, the blame can be squarely placed on the public when the second wave comes later in the summer.

And the right wing free libertarians who want all the coronavirus rules and restrictions relaxed immediately wonder why Scotland and Wales have been much more cautious in easing their virus restrictions?

Major incident declared as people flock to England's south coast

Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole council says services are ‘completely overstretched’ as visitors defy advice to stay away

www.theguardian.com

The biggest issue isn’t so much that people are failing to comply with anything, but that we have a situation where too many people have spare time on their hands and seem unwilling to go without spending this time on leisure activities.

People and institutions in affected areas have been complaining about this more or less since March, yet the government has done absolutely nothing to help. Whether it represents a risk of virus spread is a secondary issue that is perhaps an unknown for now, however there’s no doubt that it’s placed a major strain on local people and institutions. Even in my hometown, which although pleasant isn’t a honeypot, there’s been trouble with antisocial behaviour, littering, people defeating in public spaces, et cetera.

Likewise localised traffic gridlock in coastal towns day after day whenever the weather is fine is just not sustainable, and I can fully understand local people being infuriated, especially when trying to go about their day-to-day business. A friend who lives in east Kent says the same.

 

[mmh]

The UK Westminster government know full well people are idiots. But by saying people should sue their 'common sense' and not telling people what to do, the blame can be squarely placed on the public when the second wave comes later in the summer.

Ah, the second wave. Often predicted, never arrives. What are you basing your prediction on?

And the right wing free libertarians who want all the coronavirus rules and restrictions relaxed immediately wonder why Scotland and Wales have been much more cautious in easing their virus restrictions?

I wouldn't describe myself as a right wing free libertarian (seems a pretty cliche laden description to me), but I am in favour of relaxing the restrictions, as are, I believe, a large amount of the public who do not have a strong voice. We've reached the point where remaining different in Wales and Scotland is more for political reasons than public health. Both Governments will realise that continuing difference will be increasingly unpopular outside their core supporters and those simply relishing difference for difference's sake. That's why we're starting to see a different tone from them.

 

[Huntergreed]

Well that simply depends on the methods used.

Ultimately this is why rifles have an "automatic" setting........

(And no, I am not personally suggesting that - just pointing out that it is technicological possible)




One can oppose this insanity and not be a "right wing libertarian".
I am pretty far from that.

But I can recognise the colossal damage being inflicted in a desperate attempt to delay the inevitable.
Those people who the virus were going to kill were dead the day it emerged, that is just the way it is.

This is not the black death, and historically basically nothing else has justified anythign approaching the methods being used now.

I entirely agree with this. It’s sad, but we’re going to have to look past the immediate emotional impact of a very small % of people dying from this virus.

Of course every effort should be taken to protect those most at risk, including locking down care homes and asking the vulnerable to shield (which is stopping soon now, big mistake in my opinion), but there will be some preventable deaths. We cant throw away our entire society to prevent a small number of preventable deaths in order to reach herd immunity, it’s just completely out of proportion and frankly slightly insane.

 

[MikeWM]

One can oppose this insanity and not be a "right wing libertarian".
I am pretty far from that.

I oppose all of it, and I'm at heart a lefty Corbynite Or at least I was until recently. I'm not entirely sure where I am at the moment - the Government has been a disaster, but the proposals from other Westminster parties have been even worse. I think I'd have to spoil my ballot if there was an election in the near future.

But I don't think civil liberties issues, or indeed expecting the government to attempt to govern in the best interest of everyone in the the country, is a political spectrum thing anyway.

 

[Romsey]

The government were reluctant enough to impose on our liabilities by introducing lock down.

Any suggestion of deploying the army onto the streets is fantasy. Things would have to be very, very bad before the government considered that - they didn't deploy the Army during the 2011 riots and they won't now.

I think the last time armed forces were used in the UK to support police action on a widespread scale to subdue civil disturbances was in Northern Ireland in 1970. I suspect it was also threatened during the miners strikes in the early 1980's. Neither event ended well and the deep divides in the communities were made much worse and are only slowly healing.
Whatever can be said about the bunch of "politicians in Westminster, they know bringing the Army onto the streets would be their downfall with bad headlines worldwide following unfortunately fatalities and civilian disturbance. They are looking out for their own political survival, we don't matter a "£$%^& (add your expletive of choice!)

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Since when did a few people parking illegal and the odd drunken argument constitute a major incident?

Of course lots of people will flock to the seaside on a hot sunny day and why shouldn't they? If the local councils are unhappy about people using the dunes as toilets or dumping their rubbish maybe they should have opened their toilets and increased the number of bins?

 

[Cardiff123]

Ah, the second wave. Often predicted, never arrives. What are you basing your prediction on?

Well the virus is currently rising rapidly around the world. China, Australia, and the US are all battling to control a surge in cases of the virus weeks after lifting lockdown restrictions.

I wouldn't describe myself as a right wing free libertarian (seems a pretty cliche laden description to me), but I am in favour of relaxing the restrictions, as are, I believe, a large amount of the public who do not have a strong voice. We've reached the point where remaining different in Wales and Scotland is more for political reasons than public health. Both Governments will realise that continuing difference will be increasingly unpopular outside their core supporters and those simply relishing difference for difference's sake. That's why we're starting to see a different tone from them.

So Scotland and Wales should do exactly the same as Westminster? That's not how devolution works. To turn it around the other way, why isn't Westminster following Scotland and Wales' more cautious approach? Note how the latest scientific evidence to back up the latest relaxations in England has not yet been published, despite demands from the Welsh Govt for them to see the scientific evidence behind the PM's latest decisions. In contrast, the Welsh Govt regularly publish the scientific advice and evidence behind their decisions.

https://twitter.com/vaughangething/status/1276130731392217088?s=20

 

[Bikeman78]

And the right wing free libertarians who want all the coronavirus rules and restrictions relaxed immediately wonder why Scotland and Wales have been much more cautious in easing their virus restrictions?

Major incident declared as people flock to England's south coast

Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole council says services are ‘completely overstretched’ as visitors defy advice to stay away

www.theguardian.com

Have you seen what's happening in Barry Island today? Also, if the second wave fails to appear three weeks from now, can we all just get on with our lives?

 

[mmh]

The demonstrations are also useful in moving the country away from a lockdown sensibility. The lockdown opponents can point to the lack of measurable increases in hospitalizations and deaths after unlawful mass gatherings and ignore the restrictions and guidance. The lockdown proponents can get annoyed at others ignoring it and think there's no point them not ignoring it either. The public mood is shifted in the direction the Government want without them having to do or say anything.

 

[MikeWM]

Well the virus is currently rising rapidly around the world. China, Australia, and the US are all battling to control a surge in cases of the virus weeks after lifting lockdown restrictions.

In each case they never had a real first wave in the affected regions. You can't stop nature forever, just slow her down (and at horrendous cost).

 

[Huntergreed]

Have you seen what's happening in Barry Island today?

It’s disappointing to see this, especially given how low the risk to most people here is.
Some of the language used is very concerning:

The council leader, Vikki Slade, said: “We are absolutely appalled at the scenes witnessed on our beaches, particularly at Bournemouth and Sandbanks [in neighbouring Poole].

“The irresponsible behaviour and actions of so many people is just shocking and our services are stretched to the absolute hilt trying to keep everyone safe. ”

Scary, isn’t it, how we’ve suddenly went from a normal society to a society so driven by fear and panic to a society where the government have instilled so much fear in the population that people enjoying a day out at the beach now warrants a police and military response.

The ironic thing is it’s impossible to “keep everyone safe”, to do so would require us to lock everyone indoors forever, and even so that wouldn’t be 100% safe. Safety is subjective, and my fear is that the tourism and leisure industries are going to struggle to attract customers because people are afraid of going on a day trip because it’s suddenly stigmatised as “dangerous” and “a major incident” and the police and military are called to prevent the danger.

 

[PHILIPE]

Have you seen what's happening in Barry Island today? Also, if the second wave fails to appear three weeks from now, can we all just get on with our lives?

Barry Island reported to be very busy and people filling up the trains despite TFWs advice that any services they operate are for essential travel only. People have been tweeting complaining about lack of trains or carriages and receiving the usual generic reply about essential travel only with no hint of any flexibility whereas other TOCs have relaxed this.. TFW seem to have realised now that something has to be done so have laid on a shuttle service for the rest of the day.

 

[Cardiff123]

Scary, isn’t it, how we’ve suddenly went from a normal society to a society so driven by fear and panic to a society where the government have instilled so much fear in the population that people enjoying a day out at the beach now warrants a police and military response.

The ironic thing is it’s impossible to “keep everyone safe”, to do so would require us to lock everyone indoors forever, and even so that wouldn’t be 100% safe. Safety is subjective, and my fear is that the tourism and leisure industries are going to struggle to attract customers because people are afraid of going on a day trip because it’s suddenly stigmatised as “dangerous” and “a major incident” and the police and military are called to prevent the danger.

There are still over 1,000 new cases of Coronavirus every day in the UK! By contrast, the number of daily new cases in most European countries is in the low hundreds. The pandemic is far from over, the authorities are right to be concerned about people's actions on beaches today.

 

[mmh]

Since when did a few people parking illegal and the odd drunken argument constitute a major incident?

Of course lots of people will flock to the seaside on a hot sunny day and why shouldn't they? If the local councils are unhappy about people using the dunes as toilets or dumping their rubbish maybe they should have opened their toilets and increased the number of bins?

When you've got a council wanting to make a (poor) political point. It's a ragbag council run by a coalition of everyone who isn't a Tory, despite the Tories being the largest party.

 

[mmh]

There are still over 1,000 new cases of Coronavirus every day in the UK! By contrast, the number of daily new cases in most European countries is in the low hundreds. The pandemic is far from over, the authorities are right to be concerned about people's actions on beaches today.

At what number of daily new cases will you think it's acceptable to go to a beach? I'd be on one (or rather the dunes above it) right now if it wasn't so hot.

 

[Mag_seven]

The pandemic is far from over, the authorities are right to be concerned about people's actions on beaches today.

The risks of catching it outdoors are much less than inside.

 

[PHILIPE]

There are still over 1,000 new cases of Coronavirus every day in the UK! By contrast, the number of daily new cases in most European countries is in the low hundreds. The pandemic is far from over, the authorities are right to be concerned about people's actions on beaches today.

People thought there would be a spike following VE Day, then the fine weather weekends with places like Durdle Dor and other beaches packed out and then came the BLM demonstrations but it didn't happen.

 

[Huntergreed]

There are still over 1,000 new cases of Coronavirus every day in the UK! By contrast, the number of daily new cases in most European countries is in the low hundreds. The pandemic is far from over, the authorities are right to be concerned about people's actions on beaches today.

There's far more to consider than just the virus.

In order for the pandemic to end, we need to reach a state of herd immunity, this is when a sufficient % of the population are immune to the point where transmission falls and the virus dies out in the community. For this virus, this is estimated to be 60%, and the current estimate for the % of the population who have the virus is 5%. We cannot possibly eliminate this virus, so driving cases down essentially means the pandemic will last longer as it will take longer for the virus to spread through the population before it achieves herd immunity.

On top of this, the damage to businesses that the lockdown is causing, the damage to mental health and the economy this is causing, and the deaths from other causes must be considered.

We cannot stay in a state of fear forever where a day out to the beach is declared a local emergency.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I also wouldn't get too worried about today's death toll not being the lowest Thursday. Look what happened the last couple of weeks - figures shot back up on Friday. At least things should be a little more consistent this week and the seven-day rolling average is still decreasing albeit only by 10-20% week-on-week.

 

[bramling]

It’s disappointing to see this, especially given how low the risk to most people here is.
Some of the language used is very concerning:



Scary, isn’t it, how we’ve suddenly went from a normal society to a society so driven by fear and panic to a society where the government have instilled so much fear in the population that people enjoying a day out at the beach now warrants a police and military response.

The ironic thing is it’s impossible to “keep everyone safe”, to do so would require us to lock everyone indoors forever, and even so that wouldn’t be 100% safe. Safety is subjective, and my fear is that the tourism and leisure industries are going to struggle to attract customers because people are afraid of going on a day trip because it’s suddenly stigmatised as “dangerous” and “a major incident” and the police and military are called to prevent the danger.

I think the issue is more that this level of crowding on a beach is *not* normal, certainly not day-after-day which is what's been happening in some places, and certainly not normal whilst we are still in the midst of a pandemic.

No one would be batting an eyelid if these places were simply experiencing what they normally would at this time of year, which in the week at least would be modest numbers. We'd only be seeing crowding like that on weekends or bank holidays.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I think the issue is more that this level of crowding on a beach is *not* normal, certainly not day-after-day which is what's been happening in some places, and certainly not normal whilst we are still in the midst of a pandemic.

No one would be batting an eyelid if these places were simply experiencing what they normally would at this time of year, which in the week at least would be modest numbers. We'd only be seeing crowding like that on weekends or bank holidays.

We saw similar numbers on the late-May Bank Holiday, didn't we?