Donald Trump and rail

[railfan99]

With more than three months before the USA Presidential (and House of Reps/Senate) elections, the outcome is not certain despite many assuming it'll be a cakewalk for Donald Trmp.

The Democratic Party may have a candidate other than gaffe-prone Biden who may peg back Trump's opinion poll lead, though Trump remains favourite as the perception is his opposition is in disarray.

Last time when Trump was President, he endeavoured to cut Amtrak's budget, especially for c.15 long distance routes that collectively required US$500 million in annual subsidy.

Current Democratic President Biden is in favour of the $16 billion, four kilometre long Manhattan - New Jersey twin tunnel project that aims to by 2038 create four rail tracks (two each way) on this well used stretch. It has been through the environmental approvals stage but construction is yet to commence.

House Republicans in 2023 also wanted to cut Amtrak's funds.

It's early days in the Presidential race but on the internet I can't see anything Trump's campaign has yet said about railways.

A fair chunk of Trump's support comes from small towns and rural voters, quite a few of whom have an Amtrak long distance train stopping where they live or close by. In contrast, some rural states like Wyoming lack any Amtrak trains IIRC.

Does anyone know more?

 

[edwin_m]

This may be relevant, although Project 2025 is not an official Trump manifesto but is pushed by people who support him: https://pedestrianobservations.com/2024/07/17/project-2025-and-public-transportation/

Project 2025 is notable not in what it says about public transit, but in what it doesn’t say. As I said in the lede, the 922-page Project 2025 only devotes slightly less than two pages to public transportation, starting from printed page 634. The next slightly more than one page is devoted to railroads, and doesn’t say anything beyond letting safety inspections be more automated with little detail. Additional general points about transportation that also apply to transit can be found on page 621 about grants to states and pp. 623-4 extolling the benefits of public-private partnerships (PPPs, or P3s). To my surprise, the word “Amtrak,” long a Republican privatization target, appears nowhere in the document.

There are no explicit funding cuts proposed. There are complaints that American transit systems need subsidies and that their post-pandemic ridership recovery has not been great. There is one concrete proposal, to stop using a portion of the federal gas tax revenue to pay for public transit, but then it’s not a proposal to use the money to fund roads instead in context of the rest of the transportation section. The current federal formula is that funds to roads and public transit are given in an 80:20 ratio between the two modes, which has long been the subject of complaints among both transit activists and anti-transit activists, and Project 2025 not only doesn’t side with the latter but also doesn’t even mention the formula or the possibility of changing it.

 

[LLivery]

I hadn't realised the GOP wanted to privatise Amtrak. Apart from the NE Corridor, and maybe the future MidWest network, who'd be mad enough to take that on for profit?

The infra investment programme is, remember, cross party. It provides good traditional blue collar jobs for a more likely pro-Trump demographic which holds onto manufacturing and trade as a way of life. I suspect, attempts to cut that would be pushed back against by parts of the Trump base, who also wants to compete with China and BUY AMERICAN. Of course, they love their cars, but many MEN also like their massive engined trains and Brightline has been a success in a Republican state.

Also, with the Trump base wanting less money for foreign wars (I don't blame them if I'm honest); America First and all that, cutting funding for these jobs would be an interesting choice.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I think Rail will be a status quo under a Trump presidency .

 

[railfan99]

I think Rail will be a status quo under a Trump presidency .

Interesting. You're the first to say that.

 

[eldomtom2]

Last time when Trump was President, he endeavoured to cut Amtrak's budget, especially for c.15 long distance routes that collectively required US$500 million in annual subsidy.

Yes - but on the other hand the long-distance routes have tended to receive bipartisan support. Sure, the House Republicans tried to cut Amtrak's budget last year, but proportionally they proposed to cut far more of the Northeast Corridor's budget than the long-distance routes' budget. The final compromise budget also included language (but not additional funding beyond the status quo) in support of long-distance routes.
Of course, if Trump gets in this time I'm not sure the old rules apply...
In any case I'm sure under any President the handouts to the private railroads will continue.

 

[Steve4031]

I live in the US, and IMHO, the main platform for the GOP is to undo any good the Democratic party has done. Thus, the US stagnates. On a positive note, California is moving along far enough on its HSR project, and Brightline is operating in Florida and starting construction on the line between Las Vegas and the Los Angeles area.

I just got a news update that Biden has dropped out of the race and has endorsed Kamala Harris to run for President.

 

[yorksrob]

I guess it will depend on whether Trumps blue collar base has more leverage on him than the small state contingent. Given what I've heard about the VP candidates venture-capitalist background, I'm not sure that that will be the case.

 

[nw1]

All existing operators will be replaced by TrumpRail, a single line direct from Mar-a-Lago to Washington and on to Trump Tower, operated by high speed trains.

In its second phase it is planned to extend TrumpRail thousands of miles under the sea to a certain capital city not in the Americas.

 

[pne]

In its second phase it is planned to extend TrumpRail thousands of miles under the sea to a certain capital city not in the Americas.

Is the logo of that second phase a red square, by any chance?

 

[nw1]

Is the logo of that second phase a red square, by any chance?

Trade secrets, I'm afraid.

 

[CBlue]

I'm not sure dodgy Donny even knows what a train is

 

[edwin_m]

I'm not sure dodgy Donny even knows what a train is

Not sure, he's certainly railroaded enough people.

 

[TravellingPhil]

Digging up this thread as it's very relevant again now.

I've booked a coast to coast journey on Amtrak for March, so if there are any cuts coming (whether to servive or amenities such as dining cars), hopefully they won't have time to kick in before I go. We were going to visit Washington but not sure now.

I'm obviously being a bit selfish about my own trip there. But in the long term, will Trump try to cut money to Amtrak like he did before? Will the long distance routes (or even any routes) survive?

I lived in Columbus, Ohio from 2004-2006 and the 3C project (passenger rail from Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati) was really looking like it could happen then. They were even on the cusp of a downtown streetcar line being built. However, due to Republican resistance, neither project happened. They even had funding secured from the Obama administration about 10 years after I left but that money was deflected I believe.

Rail is a very partisan issue in the US and I wonder where it's heading next.

 

[Shrop]

Digging up this thread as it's very relevant again now.

I've booked a coast to coast journey on Amtrak for March, so if there are any cuts coming (whether to servive or amenities such as dining cars), hopefully they won't have time to kick in before I go. We were going to visit Washington but not sure now.

I'm obviously being a bit selfish about my own trip there. But in the long term, will Trump try to cut money to Amtrak like he did before? Will the long distance routes (or even any routes) survive?

I lived in Columbus, Ohio from 2004-2006 and the 3C project (passenger rail from Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati) was really looking like it could happen then. They were even on the cusp of a downtown streetcar line being built. However, due to Republican resistance, neither project happened. They even had funding secured from the Obama administration about 10 years after I left but that money was deflected I believe.

Rail is a very partisan issue in the US and I wonder where it's heading next.

Thanks for bringing this up here. I’ve long believed that the USA is very blinkered when it comes to rail, and it surprises me that a good many people even on this forum are sympathetic with their views. Essentially the US people overwhelmingly believe that the way to travel is either by car or by air, and with a few small exceptions they believe that rail travel is only for leisure purposes, the railways themselves really being just for freight.

In 2005 I travelled some 5000 miles on Amtrak and it was very noticeable that all trains travelled at a paltry 70mph or often considerably less, and that passenger trains would be put into sidings so that freight trains could overtake. Our trip from LA to San Francisco (by way of example of travel between two of the most important US cities) took 11 hours for just 470 miles. Even then our train was well over 2 hours late and it didn’t even go into San Francisco, the last bit had to be done by bus. It was certainly a fabulous holiday, but hopelessly impractical for anything other than an unhurried leisure excursion.

Personally I don’t believe for one moment that Trump has any genuine interest in improving trains in the USA, he’s far too entrenched in his pro-car (and plane) thinking for that, but I would like to be proved wrong. Take the LA-SF route as an example, where there has been much talk of high speed rail for many years now. Is this off the drawing board and a genuinely serious thing these days? And if so, then how will it fare with Trump in charge?

 

[TravellingPhil]

Initially, I think there will be a status quo to start with. Amtrak will continue as it is now with it's current frequencies, dining cars out west, bag check in service etc but as you say, there'll be no improvements either.

It's not high up on his agenda but as time goes on, I can see another onslaught coming.

As for the current state of rail, booking our trip has proved quite difficult but that hasn't surprised me. I've needed a very different approach to how I book my European Interrail holidays. Even though I was prepared for it, there were still elements that frustrated me.

We're doing New York to Chicago to San Francisco by rail (after what should've been 2 days in Washington but not sure about that now). Then hiring a car to explore Big Sur. Then Amtrak from San Jose to LA. Then hiring another car for a week to explore Las Vegas and the Grand Canyon, then flying from Phoenix to Columbus, Ohio to visit a friend.

We knew to reach Vegas and the Grand Canyon we would need a car...but the exploring northern Californian bit was tricky to arrange and shows just how your options can quickly run out when you try to move away from populated areas. Hiring a car really was the best option there.

Like I said, we're going late March so the service we get from Amtrak should be more or less the same as they're running now as I don't think the new administration will have sunk it's teeth into it that quickly...but there is a part of me that wonders if this is our last chance to do a trip like this.

 

[WessexEclectic]

Rail is a very partisan issue in the US and I wonder where it's heading next.

Does that explain California high speed rail, or lack there of?....

 

[TravellingPhil]

Does that explain California high speed rail, or lack there of?....

Who knows? It's hard to pick apart the mess that it has become. But there are many Americans who never need public transport therefore don't see why their tax money should be spent on it. I lived in the Midwest so it's hard for me to comment on how Californians view public transport. From my own perspective where I lived in Columbus, you just need to look at the areas served by the city's buses and the areas that are not and it really tells it's own story. Then it becomes no surprise why projects such as 3C never get off the ground.

Time will tell. Private funding may end up as the way forward for US rail projects.

 

[Krokodil]

Does that explain California high speed rail, or lack there of?....

Partly, but also the same issues with HS2 - the expense of land acquisition in a fairly populous part of the country. Musk doing his best to derail things didn't help, plus there are geological challenges with further expansion through the mountain range between Bakersfield and LA.

 

[nlogax]

Outside of HSR does Trump's return flag any danger to the Hudson Gateway program or is that money safe (a la Jim Bowen) ?

 

[nwales58]

US freight is big business and big business will do fine under the new government.

 

[Shrop]

US freight is big business and big business will do fine under the new government.

Yes, US freight is big, but do you think there is any hope for improvements in passenger travel by rail in the US under Trump?

 

[DelW]

In 2005 I travelled some 5000 miles on Amtrak and it was very noticeable that all trains travelled at a paltry 70mph or often considerably less, and that passenger trains would be put into sidings so that freight trains could overtake.

Officially it's mandatory for dispatchers to give Amtrak priority, but of course those dispatchers work for the freight railroads which own the tracks ....
With a few exceptions (mainly on Amtrak owned tracks), passenger trains are limited to 79mph.

Take the LA-SF route as an example, where there has been much talk of high speed rail for many years now. Is this off the drawing board and a genuinely serious thing these days? And if so, then how will it fare with Trump in charge?

There's a longish stretch through the Central Valley that's under construction, at considerable cost, but there's uncertainty over how and when the stretches into Los Angeles and San Francisco will be funded and built (sound familiar?).

Trump (and Musk) are not very enamoured of California, which may affect the future of the scheme.

 

[Shrop]

We're doing New York to Chicago to San Francisco by rail (after what should've been 2 days in Washington but not sure about that now). Then hiring a car to explore Big Sur. Then Amtrak from San Jose to LA. Then hiring another car for a week to explore Las Vegas and the Grand Canyon, then flying from Phoenix to Columbus, Ohio to visit a friend.

We knew to reach Vegas and the Grand Canyon we would need a car...but the exploring northern Californian bit was tricky to arrange and shows just how your options can quickly run out when you try to move away from populated areas. Hiring a car really was the best option there.

Good luck, this sounds like a great trip. We hired a car from Vegas to go to the GC, it's about 5 hours and the Hoover Dam is worth a stop on the way, not too far out of Vegas - you'll probably notice the ever decreasing water levels above the dam! When leaving Vegas, beware of finding the right route. I have a vivid memory from about 5 years ago, of driving southeast from the city along a huge road at least as big as the M1, and thinking that since it was going in the right direction, we could just keep going and eventually reach the Hoover Dam, but I was so wrong! Even though it was a huge road, it suddenly got smaller and smaller and eventually just petered out in the middle of nowhere, there weren't even any signs telling us anything. Such are American roads, they can be absolutely huge whilst serving almost nothing! If only there was a railway from Vegas to the Grand Canyon ...

There's a longish stretch through the Central Valley that's under construction, at considerable cost, but there's uncertainty over how and when the stretches into Los Angeles and San Francisco will be funded and built (sound familiar?).

Trump (and Musk) are not very enamoured of California, which may affect the future of the scheme.

It does indeed sound familiar! And yes, sadly Trump and Musk won't be wanting to do any favours to a blue state - unless of course they can perceive advantage to them ...

 

[rg177]

The OP very much refers to the impact on US Railways so can I ask that we stick to that and refrain from speculation on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict please.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Despite the troubles with the California HSR project, as a state CA has shown a desire to invest in inter-city rail- as seen with the electrification and fleet replacement on CalTrain. Though that's a joint operation with Amtrak so some of the funding is federal. If that federal funding is cut, it could cause problems.

 

[Gag Halfrunt]

Caltrain has nothing to do with Amtrak. Perhaps you're confusing it with Amtrak California.

Amtrak California - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Amtrak California (reporting mark CDTX) is a brand name used by the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) Division of Rail for three state-supported Amtrak regional rail routes in California – the Capitol Corridor, the Pacific Surfliner, and the San Joaquins[1] – and their associated connecting network of Amtrak Thruway transportation services.

 

[cle]

Outside of HSR does Trump's return flag any danger to the Hudson Gateway program or is that money safe (a la Jim Bowen) ?

I believe this is funded - federally and wiyh NY/NJ too. But goalposts moved to a new Penn (southern platforms) before a NJT increase can begin - Amtrak having more through running of course.

None of the orgs are invested in collaborating more - eg Trenton to Ronkonkoma. The New Haven line Penn access would suit better though.

One thing I'd be curoius about - albeit private so maybe it's positive - is Trump's take on Brightline as that has had success in his backyard.

I think he's probably quite ambivalent to rail ideologically, as he is with most things - he's about him - but the driver will always be lower taxes for businesses and the wealthy, ie smaller govt.

 

[Energy]

Yes, US freight is big, but do you think there is any hope for improvements in passenger travel by rail in the US under Trump?

Transit improvements are more likely to be state-level and require little/no federal financial support. I reckon you'll see more things like better bus route branding, better route planning, and better ticketing.

One thing I'd be curoius about - albeit private so maybe it's positive - is Trump's take on Brightline as that has had success in his backyard.

I'd imagine he either doesn't care or is happy with it. After all, it doesn't require subsidy, reduces road wear and politicians can stand proud next to it.

I think he's probably quite ambivalent to rail ideologically, as he is with most things - he's about him - but the driver will always be lower taxes for businesses and the wealthy, ie smaller govt.

Agreed, I'd imagine we'll see federal funding decrease to all transport. Whether money goes to roads or transit, I doubt Trump cares.

This may be relevant, although Project 2025 is not an official Trump manifesto but is pushed by people who support him: https://pedestrianobservations.com/2024/07/17/project-2025-and-public-transportation/

There are no explicit funding cuts proposed. There are complaints that American transit systems need subsidies and that their post-pandemic ridership recovery has not been great.

While I'm strongly anti-Trump and anti-Project-2025, it is a reasonable criticism in many countries (including ours) that transit subsidies shot up in the pandemic and haven't gone down to pre-covid levels.

IIRC Amtrak are basing their future on replicating the North East Corridor elsewhere and accepting that the long-distance routes will always require subsidy.

 

[zwk500]

Yes, US freight is big, but do you think there is any hope for improvements in passenger travel by rail in the US under Trump?

I think Amtrak will do well just to avoid subsidy cuts to some routes, and getting federal funding for further infrastructure work will be very hard going if at all. However I think that in certain states funding may still be forthcoming and also that Trump's administration may well reduce barriers to private rail passenger operations, similar to Brightline in Florida (although this would be part of a more general relaxation of red tape rather than specifically aimed at the railroads).