East West Rail: Bedford - Cambridge will it ever get built?

[deltic]

Given Grant Shapps has again been quoted as suggesting that East West Rail will be dropped is the section to Cambridge at risk? Reported to have said

“uncertainty and lack of detail around the East West Rail project” and added that it was unclear whether or not the rail scheme is delivered.

The old Varsity line served Bedford St Johns, getting the new line into Bedford Midland is difficult and expensive or the connection with the MML has to be dropped
The cost of crossing and interchanging with the ECML is likely to be very high
Accessing Cambridge requires a new route alignment from either the north or south and its not clear whether the station approaches can cope with many more additional services and hence could require additional works

While Shapps is likely to be on his way out having backed Sunak rather than Truss - given a likely swing to the right within Cabinet under Truss will EWR be seen as a quick easy win to reduce government spending?

 

[mr_jrt]

Well...getting the line into Midland is easy - the existing railway already goes there, and works were planned for extending the bay platform regardless, IIRC. You wouldn't be able to handle the same service levels, but you could serve it. Getting beyond Bedford is the bit where things get spicy. Crossing the ECML shouldn't be hard - if the GCR can manage to cross the MML on donations, EWR can cross the ECML with actual resources. Capacity at Cambridge...well. There should be capacity from the south thanks to the works for Cambridge South, so not too sure that's as big an issue as it seems.

 

[deltic]

Well...getting the line into Midland is easy - the existing railway already goes there, and works were planned for extending the bay platform regardless, IIRC. You wouldn't be able to handle the same service levels, but you could serve it. Getting beyond Bedford is the bit where things get spicy. Crossing the ECML shouldn't be hard - if the GCR can manage to cross the MML on donations, EWR can cross the ECML with actual resources. Capacity at Cambridge...well. There should be capacity from the south thanks to the works for Cambridge South, so not too sure that's as big an issue as it seems.

Seems to me that capacity is the issue - not much point building an expensive new line if you are only going to run a couple of trains an hour. Running say 4 tph all reversing at Bedford Midland will be problematic or you end up with some trains serving Midland and others not - the time penalty of serving Midland will also be quite high.

Crossing the ECML is complex if it is proposed to build an interchange with it.

Are the Cambridge South works a definite

 

[DarloRich]

Never is a long time bit built any time before the next ice age might be a better question!

 

[Jozhua]

Assessing the likelihood of this project given the political situation is complicated.

I look forward to seeing Grant Shapps gone, but their successor is unlikely to be better...

A lot also hinges on Treasury. A new chancellor may not change the direction of that institution too much. Zahawi seems to be the same as Sunak, but the government is pretty listless at the moment.

When Liz Truss gets in, the main thing we remain to see is the direction she goes politically. Both candidates are currently appealing to the party, but they have to actually win the next election, something that looks unlikely to happen at present.

Best case, we get a 'neutral' transport secretary which doesn't try to dismantle rail and keeps a steady flow of funding to projects such as TRU, EWR and HS2.

Worst case, we get an 'anti public transport' transport secretary who cooperates with Treasury in reducing transport spending in order to make them feel better about subsidising energy bills, cutting taxes, etc.

I hope EWR continues, looks like a fantastic project. Hopefully it can get some fizzy knitting up as well - crazy that wasn't done!

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Assessing the likelihood of this project given the political situation is complicated.

I look forward to seeing Grant Shapps gone, but their successor is unlikely to be better...

A lot also hinges on Treasury. A new chancellor may not change the direction of that institution too much. Zahawi seems to be the same as Sunak, but the government is pretty listless at the moment.

When Liz Truss gets in, the main thing we remain to see is the direction she goes politically. Both candidates are currently appealing to the party, but they have to actually win the next election, something that looks unlikely to happen at present.

Best case, we get a 'neutral' transport secretary which doesn't try to dismantle rail and keeps a steady flow of funding to projects such as TRU, EWR and HS2.

Worst case, we get an 'anti public transport' transport secretary who cooperates with Treasury in reducing transport spending in order to make them feel better about subsidising energy bills, cutting taxes, etc.

I hope EWR continues, looks like a fantastic project. Hopefully it can get some fizzy knitting up as well - crazy that wasn't done!

Another factor beyond the government is what is the Labour Pary's position on EWR? It links some key Labour seats in the South - Oxford East, Bedford (which is the smallest Labour majority in the country at only 145 votes over the Tories) and Cambridge plus key Labour targets of Milton Keynes North and South. If extended beyond Cambridge it would also link Labour held Norwich South and Labour targets Norwich North and Ipswich to the East so it would be good politics for Labour to propose to reinstate the scheme if the government foolishly axe it.

 

[BrianW]

Another factor beyond the government is what is the Labour Pary's position on EWR? It links some key Labour seats in the South - Oxford East, Bedford (which is the smallest Labour majority in the country at only 145 votes over the Tories) and Cambridge plus key Labour targets of Milton Keynes North and South. If extended beyond Cambridge it would also link Labour held Norwich South and Labour targets Norwich North and Ipswich to the East so it would be good politics for Labour to propose to reinstate the scheme if the government foolishly axe it.

That's looking like good policy development for Labour. Not sure that Bedford's Mayor Dave got it right regarding proposed demolition of those not very old house north of Bedford, so may need to think through Phase 3, incl in the light of the national economic context. Good to see increasing Labour confidence in sharing their thoughts more generally- is 'running things up the flagpole' still used? The fact that EWR have got as far as they have in terms of developing plans up to now suggests there is some underlying demand to be kept warm waiting 'the right time'.

 

[cle]

Another factor beyond the government is what is the Labour Pary's position on EWR? It links some key Labour seats in the South - Oxford East, Bedford (which is the smallest Labour majority in the country at only 145 votes over the Tories) and Cambridge plus key Labour targets of Milton Keynes North and South. If extended beyond Cambridge it would also link Labour held Norwich South and Labour targets Norwich North and Ipswich to the East so it would be good politics for Labour to propose to reinstate the scheme if the government foolishly axe it.

I said this on another thread - it would seem a smart way to eat into some Shires seats. The issue might be that the heating crisis - only due to get worse in the coming months - might drown out other issues. But if local/regional messaging worked, it might be a good secondary cause to take up - especially if amplified through the student/professional organizations. Labour's messaging (and share of platform/media) is so weak though.

 

[A0wen]

That's looking like good policy development for Labour. Not sure that Bedford's Mayor Dave got it right regarding proposed demolition of those not very old house north of Bedford, so may need to think through Phase 3, incl in the light of the national economic context. Good to see increasing Labour confidence in sharing their thoughts more generally- is 'running things up the flagpole' still used? The fact that EWR have got as far as they have in terms of developing plans up to now suggests there is some underlying demand to be kept warm waiting 'the right time'.

If you think building a railway is going to secure seats for any political party is going to win them votes, I think you're not inhabiting the real world.

Relatively few people want to travel from Bedford to Cambridge - that's why it's a bit of an irrelevance for most people in Bedford. Add in it will only help Bedford regenerate if they build alot of new houses and offices which most people oppose - otherwise all you're doing is increasing Bedford's role as a dormitory town.

 

[JonathanH]

I think that sometimes a bit too much is read into the importance of transport links in the fortunes of political parties. As many people will be NIMBYs about EWR as those who are upset if it isn't built. There will be other voting issues as well. If a political party said 'we're not building EWR but are going to add a ward to a local hospital' it would probably get them more votes.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I personally don't think it will, and in terms of "bang for buck" I'd probably prioritise getting Aylesbury linked to MKC, which will need only a small amount of work once the HS2 digging-up is finished with.

The bus service between MK and Cambridge has not long been split at Bedford because it was more operationally expedient and there was a near-full turnover of passengers at Bedford.

With regard to the Marston Vale, I'd then concentrate on building a decent eco-town centred on the Stewartby/Kempston Hardwick end and getting it into MKC (with a reverse) once HS2 allows paths to be available for that. But in terms of Cambridge, to start with butter up Stagecoach to extend the 905 back to Bedford station and tweak the timetable so it connects with the MV, get it in the fares system and planners, and see how that goes.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

That's looking like good policy development for Labour. Not sure that Bedford's Mayor Dave got it right regarding proposed demolition of those not very old house north of Bedford, so may need to think through Phase 3, incl in the light of the national economic context. Good to see increasing Labour confidence in sharing their thoughts more generally- is 'running things up the flagpole' still used? The fact that EWR have got as far as they have in terms of developing plans up to now suggests there is some underlying demand to be kept warm waiting 'the right time'.

Doesn't need to be anything to specific re route, simply a line and commitment in the manifesto "We wil build the East-West rail link between Oxford, Milton Keynes, Beford and Cambridge to improve transport links and access to jobs in those cities."

I think that sometimes a bit too much is read into the importance of transport links in the fortunes of political parties. As many people will be NIMBYs about EWR as those who are upset if it isn't built. There will be other voting issues as well. If a political party said 'we're not building EWR but are going to add a ward to a local hospital' it would probably get them more votes.

True but even if Labour won back every Red Wall seat it lost in the last election then it would still be in opposition. To form a government it needs to win seats in the south and policies like EWR even though it won't win many votes on its own helps show them as not just a party of the North, hence why Boris Johnson backed levelling up.

 

[cle]

I personally don't think it will, and in terms of "bang for buck" I'd probably prioritise getting Aylesbury linked to MKC, which will need only a small amount of work once the HS2 digging-up is finished with.

This was basically written off long before the current uncertainty.

They didn't even want to improve Risborough-Aylesbury which is a shame regardless. And the Aylesbury-Winslow line, albeit there - won't be super useful. I can't see future potential for it. An extension of a via Amersham?

 

[The Planner]

This was basically written off long before the current uncertainty.

They didn't even want to improve Risborough-Aylesbury which is a shame regardless. And the Aylesbury-Winslow line, albeit there - won't be super useful. I can't see future potential for it. An extension of a via Amersham?

They didnt need to improve Risborough to Aylesbury.

 

[snowball]

The talk of East-West Rail Bedford-Cambridge possibly being dropped has reminded me of an event, maybe about 5-10 years ago. Perhaps someone on here can remind me of the details.

The projected date for completion of the Bedford-Cambridge section was under discussion, and a politician, possibly a government minister, suggested that a much earlier date should be achievable.

Can anyone remeber the circumstances and whether it led to any change in official government policy?

 

[A0wen]

I personally don't think it will, and in terms of "bang for buck" I'd probably prioritise getting Aylesbury linked to MKC, which will need only a small amount of work once the HS2 digging-up is finished with.

I think the track between Aylesbury and Calvert is needed for the waste site next to Calvert ? @The Planner may be able to confirm as I thought I saw one of his posts on that.

In terms of Bedford - Cambridge I suspect it may not happen. I've long struggled to see the real benefit of that bit - linking Oxford - Cambridge always seemed tenuous at best. Between Bedford and Cambridge there are lots of fields and that's it. And Bedford won't generate a huge amount of traffic, unless a huge number of extra homes are built nearby.

The one question in my mind is whether there is any intrinsic value in having a link between the MML and ECML south of Leicester - if there really is the demand to support that, then would North - East curves at Manton address that (which at about 2 miles would be infinitely cheaper than building Bedford - Cambridge) ?

 

[The Planner]

I think the track between Aylesbury and Calvert is needed for the waste site next to Calvert ? @The Planner may be able to confirm as I thought I saw one of his posts on that.

Will be interesting to see what gets put back. The bit south towards Aylesbury has to go back or someone is paying FCC a lot of cash in compensation. North of there? Not so sure, though based on the actual distance then you would probably build it.

 

[JonathanH]

The one question in my mind is whether there is any intrinsic value in having a link between the MML and ECML south of Leicester - if there really is the demand to support that, then would North - East curves at Manton address that (which at about 2 miles would be infinitely cheaper than building Bedford - Cambridge) ?

Not really. Infinitely cheaper but It would be a long way round for any journey that is relevant and frankly any journeys would be better done on the X4 / 905.

 

[zwk500]

I broadly agree with @Bletchleyite. Bedford-Cambrige is too unpopular to be forced through by anybody in either party as they are now.
Get Oxford-MK in, rebuild the Marston Vale line to a decent standard and run Oxford-Bedford with a Bedford-Bletchley stopper, then sort out the bus links (X5 as well as 905) and get them in the timetable.
Once that's in, see if there's room left for an MKC-Aylesbury service but it doesn't need to go any closer to London, so no extension of Marylebone trains. If need be the Bedford-Bletchley stopper could be extended to Aylesbury if the connections are reasonable, but Aylesbury traffic north is heading for central MK in my experience.

 

[TheBigD]

The one question in my mind is whether there is any intrinsic value in having a link between the MML and ECML south of Leicester - if there really is the demand to support that, then would North - East curves at Manton address that (which at about 2 miles would be infinitely cheaper than building Bedford - Cambridge) ?

Regional Railways (may have been Provincial Services at the time) proposed a Swindon to Peterborough service back in late 1980s/early 1990s. Same route as you suggest, along with reopening Corby station (which has happened anyway) and a new curve at Manton.
A test run ran with a cl155 unit conveying various dignitaries but nothing ever came of it.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

GWT looked at it too, at least according to one conductor I spoke to years ago.

 

[D365]

In terms of Bedford - Cambridge I suspect it may not happen. I've long struggled to see the real benefit of that bit - linking Oxford - Cambridge always seemed tenuous at best. Between Bedford and Cambridge there are lots of fields and that's it. And Bedford won't generate a huge amount of traffic, unless a huge number of extra homes are built nearby.

Conversely, on the MK-Bedford section, mixing EWR fast trains with the existing Marston stopper is proving to be difficult. The Bedford-Cambridge section will be far more straightforward to plan.

 

[London Trains]

Once that's in, see if there's room left for an MKC-Aylesbury service but it doesn't need to go any closer to London, so no extension of Marylebone trains.

I agree Marylebone to Aylesbury services should not be extended to Milton Keynes, but I had the idea of reopening Bourne End to High Wycombe and running a 2tph Maidenhead to Milton Keynes (or Northampton) service which will provide a load of new connections including to Crossrail at Maidenhead. It could even be extended to Heathrow if the western access is ever built.

It would replace current services between Maidenhead and Bourne End (with a Bourne End to Marlow shuttle which has good connections towards Maidenhead) and between Princes Risborough and Aylesbury.

 

[zwk500]

I agree Marylebone to Aylesbury services should not be extended to Milton Keynes, but I had the idea of reopening Bourne End to High Wycombe and running a 2tph Maidenhead to Milton Keynes (or Northampton) service which will provide a load of new connections including to Crossrail at Maidenhead. It could even be extended to Heathrow if the western access is ever built.

It would replace current services between Maidenhead and Bourne End (with a Bourne End to Marlow shuttle which has good connections towards Maidenhead) and between Princes Risborough and Aylesbury.

Bourne End to High Wycombe isn't going to happen. There's too much in the way and no political will to even contemplate trying to override the locals.

 

[bspahh]

This is a post from 2014 which explains why it is unlikely

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/maidnehead-marlow.102859/#post-1852671

The idea of a reinstatement of the Bourne End to Wycombe section of the line by heavy or light rail, along the original alignment is a non starter. There have been too many breaches of the alignment as at Bourne End, (Industrial Estate), Woburn Green (Housing) and between Loudwater and Wycombe (various Industrial and Retail Units. Also there is the problem of reinstating the four major Level Crossings at Bourne End Station, Cores End Road, Woburn Green and Loudwater Station. The last two were sited at the bottom of very steep road inclines. (The incline at Woburn has an escape lane on it and the Loudwater incline is very heavily trafficked). I would expect that Network Rail would not even countenance the building of a new Railway with four Level Crossings on it, and the construction of bridges at the four sites would be very challenging, (and expensive).
Regarding Level Crossings, the one at North Town, (besides Furze Platt Station), was notorious for the large amounts of near misses, (and occasional collisions) between road vehicles and trains. I attended more than one reported 'wrong side failure' there, when a car driver would allege that the Road Traffic signals had failed to operate. Not surprisingly we could never replicate the fault, although after a Bus nearly got taken out, it was decided that one of the traffic signals was poorly placed because of an adjacent house. In certain sunlight conditions the Road Signal in that location, when operating, may be difficult to see, especially as the Road across the Level Crossing is quite narrow. These factors were considered to put additional workload on Road Vehicle Drivers, which was believed in certain cases caused Drivers to miss the Road Signal. Many of the near misses (and at least one serious crash), were during the school run where the above workload for the Vehicle Drivers might have been exacerbated by the fact the Vehicle would have been carrying children travelling to/from school. (and we know how relaxing that journey can be!).
Finally Arriva offer a Bus Service between Maidenhead and Bourne End to Marlow. Unfortunately you have to travel via High Wycombe and change buses. Journey time nearly 2 hours, although you can wait in the nice fairly new Bus Station at Wycombe when changing. Much better than the monstrosity that is Slough's new Bus Station.

 

[A0wen]

Conversely, on the MK-Bedford section, mixing EWR fast trains with the existing Marston stopper is proving to be difficult. The Bedford-Cambridge section will be far more straightforward to plan.

Well I would hope an empty line is easier to plan for services. The point isn't about ease of planning services - it's whether spending circa £ 1.5bn (~30 miles @ £50m / mile) is even remotely worthwhile. If, for example, more than 50% of EWRs benefits can be achieved simply by linking Milton Keynes and Oxford, it suggests not.

 

[Magdalia]

Between Bedford and Cambridge there are lots of fields and that's it.

St Neots, Cambourne and the Biomedical Campus on the south edge of Cambridge.

All are growing rapidly.

 

[A0wen]

St Neots, Cambourne and the Biomedical Campus on the south edge of Cambridge.

All are growing rapidly.

St Neots is a population of 30k, so not a traffic destination.

The Bio Med campus is a pull, but is it *really* that much of a pull from Bedford / St Neots?

Cambourne is population 8000 + it needs to double or even treble in size to become a viable traffic point.

 

[SynthD]

I understood this line was planned to support new housing. It was supported because that was desirable, and it was cancelled because that was undesirable. The old priorities will return.

 

[JonathanH]

I understood this line was planned to support new housing. It was supported because that was desirable, and it was cancelled because that was undesirable. The old priorities will return.

Maybe the people opposing the line have a vested interest in opposing the housing.