End of the "golden age" of road haulage could create opportunities for rail?

[quantinghome]

One idea worth considering may be the use of rail + cargo bike for local deliveries. This could make good use of off-peak capacity and would help avoid the constant merry-go-round of delivery vans. The dabbawalla system in Mumbai is spectacularly efficient and the concept could be adapted for use elsewhere.

 

[RT4038]

But that is making the mistake of judging the success of Orion on a noticeable modal shift to rail.

Assuming Orion is a success at all, of course.

 

[Oxfordblues]

Thank you to all contributors for your informative and well-reasoned replies. I seem to have stirred-up a few hornets nests!

I started the thread to reflect three recent news stories: the HGV driver shortage, pollution/decarbonisation concerns and Grant Schapps' announcement on moves to encourage a switch of some freight to rail. I do believe that we are witnessing the end of a "golden age" for road haulage, but not of course the end of the industry itself.

 

[8H]

Thank you to all contributors for your informative and well-reasoned replies. I seem to have stirred-up a few hornets nests!

I started the thread to reflect three recent news stories: the HGV driver shortage, pollution/decarbonisation concerns and Grant Schapps' announcement on moves to encourage a switch of some freight to rail. I do believe that we are witnessing the end of a "golden age" for road haulage, but not of course the end of the industry itself.

I agree with you and was pleased to see the thread. Planning for a change in what used to be simply called something like the movement of goods rather than 'logistics" the latter implying a pseudo science whose methods may not be challenged is overdue. Most defenders of the status quo in this discussion seem unwilling to accept there has to be an alternative and that an endless flow of containers from China and the primacy of five minutes old Amazon are not both immutable natural laws since the dawn of creation! Things used to be done differently and will be again, who can say with Climate Emergency becoming critical that rail will not play a bigger part and is equipped to do so.

 

[tbtc]

a shortage of drivers and increasing concern about the environment should really be an opportunity for rail, but really must get electrifying those freight routes. Whatever the stats a big smoke belching diesel on the front really isn’t a good look selling green credentials!

Which routes should we electrify first that would permit the replacement of road haulage? It's completely different to the original premise of the thread but still within the scope of the thread title.

I guess the problems are that (a) what lines would you need to electrify to ensure electric haulage - bearing in mind that we already have 66s running freight diagrams entirely under the wires - partly because they interwork with other freight services, partly because there aren't enough wholly electric freight flows to warrant each FOC having its own specialist fleet of electric locos...

...and (b) by the time you've wired these bits of line, the shortage of HGV drivers will be long over, given the pace that the rail industry works at (as one feasibility study follows another...)

 

[XAM2175]

Planning for a change in what used to be simply called something like the movement of goods rather than 'logistics" the latter implying a pseudo science whose methods may not be challenged is overdue.

I'm really looking forward to the first appearance of the newly-renamed Royal Movement of Goods Corps.

 

[Meerkat]

..and (b) by the time you've wired these bits of line, the shortage of HGV drivers will be long over,

Curing the shortage will either require major relaxation of the immigration policy (politically tricky) or an expensive correction of poor pay and conditions, which will rebalance the competitiveness of rail v road.
Decarbonising HGVs also looks so tricky it might need masking by some “but look at our success with electric rail freight!” Distraction.

 

[8H]

I'm really looking forward to the first appearance of the newly-renamed Royal Movement of Goods Corps.

Don’t bring the royals into it please we can do without Von Battenberg logistics!

 

[The Ham]

...and (b) by the time you've wired these bits of line, the shortage of HGV drivers will be long over, given the pace that the rail industry works at (as one feasibility study follows another...)

It depends on what timeframe you think that will get more lorry drivers.

Given that we've got a significant shortage of children for the size of our population (since the 60's the overall population has gone up but the number of children has gone down, so as a percentage of the population those under 18 is significantly down on what it used to be), we are going to have to accept more efficient ways of working or paying more for goods and services.

It's been masked of late due to high immigration, however having left the EU (and the high pay requirements for the points based immigration system) there's a risk that it doesn't resolve overly quickly.

If we see continued increases in road traffic, which leads to further delays; then that could require more drivers to do the same amount of work, which makes the situation worse.

As it stands it's unlikely to result in significant use of rail, however it could result in some more freight using the rail network.

However if it becomes more of an ongoing issue then that may increase the likelihood of more rail use.

 

[paul1609]

The devil is always in the detail. A twenty year old road vehicle is obviously going to have different emissions compared to a brand new road vehicle. And when comparing between road and rail, are you comparing to a conventional diesel hauled train, an electric hauled train, or a bi-mode?

They are the DfTs figures not mine using averaged values. However Euro 5 regulations came in in 2011 and Euro 6 in 2016. In both cases the majority of models on sale met the new standards some years before the deadline. The UK HGV fleet has an average age of around 7 years and 37% of vehicles are less than 3 years old. So the number of pre Euro 5 hgvs in use in the Uk must be quite small now and I would suspect mainly in use in niche markets rather than long distance trunk haulage.
The road v rail figures were from a basket of sample journeys and took in to account the mix of type of train, uk generation mix and maintenance carbon for each mode of transport.
As the renewable share of UK electricity generation fell by 16% in Q1 2021 despite an increase in peak capacity I imagine the figures are currently skewed in favour of rail if anything.

 

[tbtc]

Curing the shortage will either require major relaxation of the immigration policy (politically tricky) or an expensive correction of poor pay and conditions, which will rebalance the competitiveness of rail v road.
Decarbonising HGVs also looks so tricky it might need masking by some “but look at our success with electric rail freight!” Distraction.

It depends on what timeframe you think that will get more lorry drivers.

Given that we've got a significant shortage of children for the size of our population (since the 60's the overall population has gone up but the number of children has gone down, so as a percentage of the population those under 18 is significantly down on what it used to be), we are going to have to accept more efficient ways of working or paying more for goods and services.

It's been masked of late due to high immigration, however having left the EU (and the high pay requirements for the points based immigration system) there's a risk that it doesn't resolve overly quickly.

If we see continued increases in road traffic, which leads to further delays; then that could require more drivers to do the same amount of work, which makes the situation worse.

As it stands it's unlikely to result in significant use of rail, however it could result in some more freight using the rail network.

However if it becomes more of an ongoing issue then that may increase the likelihood of more rail use.

You've both quoted the second part of what I was saying and not the first.

Oh, it'll take a while to sort out the driver shortage (maybe to wait until long enough until after Brexit so that people can accept the need for economic migrants again?)... but my first point was "what lines would you need to electrify to ensure electric haulage" - for example, to ensure a sufficient switch (from 66s) to electric-hauled freight, we'd need to wire up hundreds of miles... for example, let's say Felixstowe is a good place to start... but that's only a short branch - a lot of trains run to northern England/ midlands via Ely and Peterborough... so we'd need to do that too before we could give up on our 66-addiction... and then also the "Joint" line from Peterborough to Doncaster... and presumably various other bits of route - some yards too... same goes for the "electric spine"... how long's that going to take? would you be electrifying lines on the basis of today's freight flows or the flows in ten years time (given the way that some flows may decline - e.g. would you be surprised if Biomass turns out to be seen as less "green" at some stage?)

How long would it take to fill in the gaps between Felixstowe - Ely - Peterborough - Lincoln - Doncaster? And Southampton - Oxford - Birmingham? Buxton quarries and Hope cement too? Because that seems like a benchmark for the training of HGV drivers

 

[The Ham]

You've both quoted the second part of what I was saying and not the first.

Oh, it'll take a while to sort out the driver shortage (maybe to wait until long enough until after Brexit so that people can accept the need for economic migrants again?)... but my first point was "what lines would you need to electrify to ensure electric haulage" - for example, to ensure a sufficient switch (from 66s) to electric-hauled freight, we'd need to wire up hundreds of miles... for example, let's say Felixstowe is a good place to start... but that's only a short branch - a lot of trains run to northern England/ midlands via Ely and Peterborough... so we'd need to do that too before we could give up on our 66-addiction... and then also the "Joint" line from Peterborough to Doncaster... and presumably various other bits of route - some yards too... same goes for the "electric spine"... how long's that going to take? would you be electrifying lines on the basis of today's freight flows or the flows in ten years time (given the way that some flows may decline - e.g. would you be surprised if Biomass turns out to be seen as less "green" at some stage?)

How long would it take to fill in the gaps between Felixstowe - Ely - Peterborough - Lincoln - Doncaster? And Southampton - Oxford - Birmingham? Buxton quarries and Hope cement too? Because that seems like a benchmark for the training of HGV drivers

I avoided answering the question on were to electrify as to some extent that's of secondary importance (as even diesel locos produce less carbon than lorries, with the average freight by rail being 25g/tonne km vs lorries which are at least 500g/tonne km, now whilst rail includes electric traction as well as diesel the carbon from electric is about 4% of the total, unlike passenger services where is about 2/5ths).

Yes it's better if we could get more freight using electric locos, however that's likely to come on the piggy backing on more electrification for passenger services and/or the delivery of bimodal locos.

 

[Oxfordblues]

Today's announcement by the Department for Transport that the sale of all new diesel HGVs will be banned in the UK by 2040 reinforces my view that the days of unrestrained road haulage are numbered, with big potential opportunities for rail.

 

[Meerkat]

Today's announcement by the Department for Transport that the sale of all new diesel HGVs will be banned in the UK by 2040 reinforces my view that the days of unrestrained road haulage are numbered, with big potential opportunities for rail.

Does that include hybrids, or still allow (probably very) mild hybrids?

 

[Dai Corner]

Does that include hybrids, or still allow (probably very) mild hybrids?

Yes.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1002367/consultation-on-when-to-phase-out-the-sale-of-new-non-zero-emission-heavy-good-vehicles.pdf

1.9 For the purposes of this consultation non-zero emission HGVs are those which produce harmful emissions at the tailpipe. This includes diesel, low carbon fuelled and hybrid HGVs. Only fully zero emission technologies will adequately address GHG emissions, air quality and other tailpipe pollutants from HGVs.

 

[The Ham]

Yes.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1002367/consultation-on-when-to-phase-out-the-sale-of-new-non-zero-emission-heavy-good-vehicles.pdf

That's quite significant, and could have significant implications for long haul road transport.

Of course it doesn't stop diesel lorries being based on France and being brought over here for jobs.

 

[Dai Corner]

That's quite significant, and could have significant implications for long haul road transport.

Of course it doesn't stop diesel lorries being based on France and being brought over here for jobs.

Or indeed diesel lorries being used for as long as the owners find it possible and worthwhile.

 

[zwk500]

Also, precedent would suggest that today's announced date may not necessarily be the date on which the law acutally changes...

 

[HSTEd]

All that is likely to achieve is a dramatic increase in the average HGV fleet age.

Unless they are going to actually fund eHighway....

We could proabbly get high enough electrification density for a battery-catenary HGV fleet to be fully operational by 2040

 

[Meerkat]

Unless they are going to actually fund eHighway....

We could proabbly get high enough electrification density for a battery-catenary HGV fleet to be fully operational by 2040

I‘d be interested to see the remains of the business case for eHighway after the H&S people have added their demands!
Considering all the mitigations for a fenced off railway not sure how they will view live conductors over a motorway, being used by an industry not famous for its rigorous maintenance and driving standards and amongst cars and bikes doing 70+…..(I think the comparisons with town trams are only partially valid).

 

[zwk500]

I‘d be interested to see the remains of the business case for eHighway after the H&S people have added their demands!
Considering all the mitigations for a fenced off railway not sure how they will view live conductors over a motorway, being used by an industry not famous for its rigorous maintenance and driving standards and amongst cars and bikes doing 70+…..(I think the comparisons with town trams are only partially valid).

I'd be interested to see what remains of the business case after the structures survey has been done. I can imagine that more than a few Smart Motorway/VSL gantries would need lifting to be clear enough from the contact wire.

 

[Irascible]

That's quite significant, and could have significant implications for long haul road transport.

Of course it doesn't stop diesel lorries being based on France and being brought over here for jobs.

I haven't read the EU proposals ( they've not been ratified yet anyway ) but I'm assuming they'll be the same as the UK ones with the same timeframes, and ours just made it out first because we're not as good at arguing with ourselves as the 27 states are with each other...

 

[HSTEd]

I‘d be interested to see the remains of the business case for eHighway after the H&S people have added their demands!
Considering all the mitigations for a fenced off railway not sure how they will view live conductors over a motorway, being used by an industry not famous for its rigorous maintenance and driving standards and amongst cars and bikes doing 70+…..(I think the comparisons with town trams are only partially valid).

Railways aren't fenced off because they are electrified, they are fenced off because they are railways!

I'd be interested to see what remains of the business case after the structures survey has been done. I can imagine that more than a few Smart Motorway/VSL gantries would need lifting to be clear enough from the contact wire.

At the voltage eHighway uses ~750Vdc, clearances are functionally mechanical - given how small mechanical clearances can be (on the order of a cm or something), I don't this is too likely.

 

[8H]

All that is likely to achieve is a dramatic increase in the average HGV fleet age.

Unless they are going to actually fund eHighway....

We could proabbly get high enough electrification density for a battery-catenary HGV fleet to be fully operational by 2040

Would that be an HGV train then?

 

[Meerkat]

Railways aren't fenced off because they are electrified, they are fenced off because they are railways!

Electrified railways have a higher standard for fencing dont they? Plus all the parapets on bridges etc

At the voltage eHighway uses ~750Vdc, clearances are functionally mechanical - given how small mechanical clearances can be (on the order of a cm or something), I don't this is too likely.

Those huge height lorries get really close to the overbridges - not a lot of clearance for suspension travel plus pantograph plus wiring plus the clearance from metal bridges

 

[Oxfordblues]

I hope I'll be forgiven for bumping this thread, but the second story on the BBC news tonight, after Afghanistan of course, is the now-critical shortage of HGV drivers in the UK and the increasingly-dire effects on deliveries. Many responses have been dismissive of the role rail could potentially play in relieving the pressures on road haulage. Rail, we're told, is inflexible and only really suitable for long-haul and bulk flows. Most customers these days are looking for "just-in-time" deliveries with which rail can't compete, but when you can't guarantee a driver for every shift the concept is at best academic.

So hauliers face a "perfect storm" of increased congestion, fuel-price inflation, zero-emission zones, pressure to reduce carbon emissions and the desperate shortage of drivers. If there ever was a "golden age" of road haulage I would suggest it is now well-and-truly over.

 

[RT4038]

I hope I'll be forgiven for bumping this thread, but the second story on the BBC news tonight, after Afghanistan of course, is the now-critical shortage of HGV drivers in the UK and the increasingly-dire effects on deliveries. Many responses have been dismissive of the role rail could potentially play in relieving the pressures on road haulage. Rail, we're told, is inflexible and only really suitable for long-haul and bulk flows. Most customers these days are looking for "just-in-time" deliveries with which rail can't compete, but when you can't guarantee a driver for every shift the concept is at best academic.

So hauliers face a "perfect storm" of increased congestion, fuel-price inflation, zero-emission zones, pressure to reduce carbon emissions and the desperate shortage of drivers. If there ever was a "golden age" of road haulage I would suggest it is now well-and-truly over.

Surely the main effect is going to put the price of haulage up? Any meaningful increase in Rail transport of goods is going to take 10 years, cost billions in new facilities (and trackwork etc) and necessarily mean a reduction in passenger service to accommodate. Anyway, if a bit of freight went to rail now, why would hauliers worry if they can't man their trucks? They'll win it back once the shortage is solved.
I doubt the hauliers margins are going to suffer by your 'perfect storm' - it is the rest of us who will pay increased prices for our goods. Perhaps, in the round, this will take money away from feeding ever increasing house prices, but those on low incomes are going to suffer. The 'golden age' of road haulage will still be there.

 

[Bald Rick]

My friends in the haulage industry, two of whom run relatively large companies, say that the end result will be a 20-30% pay rise for HGV drivers, which will feed through to the price of most retail goods (albeit at a much lower level). It will take about a year to rebalance. And they both say this is all entirely due to Brexit, albeit the current high level of shortages are very short term due to “pingdemic” and school hols.

 

[8H]

My friends in the haulage industry, two of whom run relatively large companies, say that the end result will be a 20-30% pay rise for HGV drivers, which will feed through to the price of most retail goods (albeit at a much lower level). It will take about a year to rebalance. And they both say this is all entirely due to Brexit, albeit the current high level of shortages are very short term due to “pingdemic” and school hols.

the HGV boss position you quote here is like what Mandy Rice Davies said about the British establishment when protecting themselves “They would say that wouldn’t they” it doesn‘t make it correct and what they say isn’t evidence M’lud!

 

[zwk500]

the HGV boss position you quote here is like what Mandy Rice Davies said about the British establishment when protecting themselves “They would say that wouldn’t they” it doesn‘t make it correct and what they say isn’t evidence M’lud!

People who run large companies tend to know what's going on. If they didn't they wouldn't be in a job for very long.