Evolyn to investigate cross-Channel rail services (clarified to not include Mobico)

[zwk500]

I was more thinking of when Eurostar is charging an eye watering amount but your right its not Eurostar's fault when it can't compete if EasyJet is offering £20 one way. In an ideal situation there would be a service between St Pancras and Charles de Gaulle but that would only be financially viable with Air France support. It makes sense that Mobico is focusing on the most successful Eurostar route.

If Eurostar can sell tickets at £150+ Why would it want to compete for £20?

 

[Bald Rick]

If Eurostar can sell tickets at £150+ Why would it want to compete for £20?

Well, in the short term for opening offers, they would I’msure do what Lumo did and ‘buy’ customers with some bery cheap prices, and then they have the email addresses / phone numbers of a few hundred thousand potential repeat customers. But beyond that they would price in broadly the same way as Eurostar.

Eurostar have some very clever airline style pricing mechanisms, and charge what they do because they can. The new operstor (if it happens) will do the same.

 

[BRX]

its not Eurostar pricing. There is, effectively , a minimum price for using the train through the tunnel, regardless of operator, and that is the tunnel ‘toll’ fee eurostar (and any operator ) has to pay eurotunnel per passenger.

Eurostar prices do seem to have gone up quite a bit compared to pre covid so it can't all be down to the tunnel toll.

 

[Chester1]

If Eurostar can sell tickets at £150+ Why would it want to compete for £20?

Of course it wouldn't. Thats why a second operator opens up potential to ban tickets on point to point London - Paris flight tickets. There will be competition on price between Eurostar and Mobico.

Well, in the short term for opening offers, they would I’msure do what Lumo did and ‘buy’ customers with some bery cheap prices, and then they have the email addresses / phone numbers of a few hundred thousand potential repeat customers. But beyond that they would price in broadly the same way as Eurostar.

Eurostar have some very clever airline style pricing mechanisms, and charge what they do because they can. The new operstor (if it happens) will do the same.

Thats broadly same as current situation because Eurostar competes with airlines and decides what is it best pricing model. If Mobico service starts then EasyJet etc are no longer needed for competition purposes. If the service actually goes ahead I will be surprised if various campaigning groups don't target London - Paris flights, especially with the small success of the 2.5 hour law in France.

 

[Bald Rick]

Eurostar prices do seem to have gone up quite a bit compared to pre covid so it can't all be down to the tunnel toll.

No, they are recovering from their losses during Covid. But no doubt their pricing models shows that people much prefer to get the train compared to flying London to Paris, and price accordingly.

 

[AdamWW]

No, they are recovering from their losses during Covid.

If they are successfully pricing to maximise revenue, the fares will be what they are.

Putting them up would then reduce income.

Of course it's possible that post Covid they experimented with higher fares and discovered that it did actually work.

 

[jon0844]

No, they are recovering from their losses during Covid. But no doubt their pricing models shows that people much prefer to get the train compared to flying London to Paris, and price accordingly.

I'd certainly pay a premium for Eurostar over flying, especially if travelling with people who don't want to get split up (unless they pay) or wanting to take more than a flat bag that can go under the seat in front.

For one, standard class is infinitely nicer than any class on a short haul flight.

Ideally though, the service frequency would be increased so there would be more seats overall. Then prices could be a little lower, but still making more profit overall.

 

[rvdborgt]

Of course it's possible that post Covid they experimented with higher fares and discovered that it did actually work.

One of the reasons it works is that supply is limited and some people are prepared to pay more to avoid flying. A competitor will change that picture.

 

[fandroid]

The Amsterdam route seems to be popular. That demonstrates that there are enough people who are willing to pay to avoid airports and flying

 

[BRX]

If they are successfully pricing to maximise revenue, the fares will be what they are.

Putting them up would then reduce income.

Of course it's possible that post Covid they experimented with higher fares and discovered that it did actually work.

It's surely got at least something to do with them reducing their capacity and numbers of seats available (not necessarily for reasons within their control).

It suggests to me there's a fair bit of latent demand.

 

[43096]

It seems that Evolyn's announcement about acquiring new trains was more than a touch economical with the truth, as Alstom have felt it necessary to comment: https://www.alstom.com/press-releas...tement-evolyn-press-release-issued-october-11

13 October 2023 – In reference to the recent Evolyn Press Release issued on October 11, which seemingly confirmed an agreement between Evolyn and Alstom for the acquisition of twelve (12) Very High-Speed Trains, Alstom would like to provide important information, as a means of clarification, and as such wishes to highlight the following items:

Alstom and Evolyn have established a short-term agreement to proceed with initial train system engineering activities with the objective of accelerating activities, should the parties eventually enter into a contract for the purchase and delivery of a certain number of trains, provided that Evolyn is capable of securing project financing.

With regards to potential future delivery dates for new trains, at this time, the final train delivery dates will be confirmed when a firm and final contract will be agreed upon, to be signed at a later date.

 

[jon0844]

Sadly most people won't get to see those releases and will continue to believe it is happening.

 

[ShadowKnight]

If you could get a channel tunnel train to Heathrow airport via the NLL (or Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris on the other side), I think that the case of banning flights between London and Paris are much more feasible. As often passengers on short flights like London to paris are often connections to long haul flights from across the world. Increasing the convenience of plane/train connections such as at Amsterdam Schiphol for example, I think would have quite an effect

 

[AlbertBeale]

If you could get a channel tunnel train to Heathrow airport via the NNL (or Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris on the other side), I think that the case of banning flights between London and Paris are much more feasible. As often passengers on short flights like London to paris are often connections to long haul flights from across the world. Increasing the convenience of plane/train connections such as at Amsterdam Schiphol for example, I think would have quite an effect

I'd be surprised if many people fly between London and Paris for connections - they're both hub destinations. Most connecting flights are, surely, normally between smaller airports and places like HRW or CDG?

By the way - did you mean NLL rather than NNL??

 

[popeter45]

Could never get the paths in the tunnel but a Calais to Ashford comutter shuttle with something like a FLIRT would have been a interesting prospect, make it turn up and go rather than reserved seat and could be a useful connection for cross boarder trips like Calais - London or Canterbury - Paris

 

[Bald Rick]

I'd be surprised if many people fly between London and Paris for connections - they're both hub destinations.

You’ll be surprised! It‘s the mainstay of both BA and AF operations between Heathrow and CDG, which is about half all London - Paris flights. BA for the access to their unrivalled network to North America, AF for their network particularly to Africa, but also to Central America and the French carribean.

 

[ShadowKnight]

I'd be surprised if many people fly between London and Paris for connections - they're both hub destinations. Most connecting flights are, surely, normally between smaller airports and places like HRW or CDG?

By the way - did you mean NLL rather than NNL??

NLL is what I meant yes thank you for pointing that out.

I am unsure to be honest on the figures on the type of users on the London Paris flights in that case. However more broadly on the Eurostar network, if it were to connect with an airport (and perhaps even have code share agreements which I think happen with some DB trains in Germany) it could integrate into the airline system and the integrated ticketing and convenience of arriving at the airport would I think certainly challenge the dominance of short haul routes

 

[Trainbike46]

Could never get the paths in the tunnel but a Calais to Ashford comutter shuttle with something like a FLIRT would have been a interesting prospect, make it turn up and go rather than reserved seat and could be a useful connection for cross boarder trips like Calais - London or Canterbury - Paris

It would be interesting, and I don't see why the paths would be an issue? There is the 4 160 km/h paths an hour through the tunnel (plus a fifth one in some hours), and eurostar isn't using all of those, so using one for a local train should be possible from a paths perspective - the issues would likely be cost and security facilities

 

[popeter45]

It would be interesting, and I don't see why the paths would be an issue? There is the 4 160 km/h paths an hour through the tunnel (plus a fifth one in some hours), and eurostar isn't using all of those, so using one for a local train should be possible from a paths perspective - the issues would likely be cost and security facilities

for a useful commuter service you would want more than 1tph, ideally 2tph off-peak with 4tph peak with smaller 100m trains as not really "turn up and go" if you have to wait a hour for the next train if you miss or cant board the previous one

 

[Trainbike46]

for a useful commuter service you would want more than 1tph, ideally 2tph off-peak with 4tph peak with smaller 100m trains as not really "turn up and go" if you have to wait a hour for the next train if you miss or cant board the previous one

I think you're overestimating the potential cross-channel commuter market, especially as there's no major employment markets particularly close to the channel on either side...

 

[nwales58]

I think you're overestimating the potential cross-channel commuter market, especially as there's no major employment markets particularly close to the channel on either side...

How about a 'spot the irrelevant connections' game. Anything better than Dungeness and Gravelines for a start?

 

[rg177]

A reminder that this thread is about Mobico and their proposed new cross-channel service.

If anyone wants to discuss a potential commuter service across the channel, please start a new Speculative Discussion thread.

 

[Struner]

A reminder that this thread is about Mobico and their proposed new cross-channel service.

If anyone wants to discuss a potential commuter service across the channel, please start a new Speculative Discussion thread.

Thank you!

 

[Chester1]

You’ll be surprised! It‘s the mainstay of both BA and AF operations between Heathrow and CDG, which is about half all London - Paris flights. BA for the access to their unrivalled network to North America, AF for their network particularly to Africa, but also to Central America and the French carribean.

That still leaves a sizable number of passengers for Mobico to take. They must be reasonable confident they can take enough non connecting passengers off the airlines and Eurostar.

Today UK ETA (Electronic Travel Authorisation) started accepting applications for its launch on 15th November. Its for Qataris only until February, when citizens of five other Middle Eastern countries switch to it. Its not likely to meaningfully effect cross channel border controls until the following batches join which will probably be spring. The EU has delayed EES until Autumn 2024 which will get rid of passport stamps. ETIAS has been delayed until Spring 2025 and is the pre authorisation part. It puts talk of UK joining Schengen into perspective!

 

[AlbertBeale]

That still leaves a sizable number of passengers for Mobico to take. They must be reasonable confident they can take enough non connecting passengers off the airlines and Eurostar.

Today UK ETA (Electronic Travel Authorisation) started accepting applications for its launch on 15th November. Its for Qataris only until February, when citizens of five other Middle Eastern countries switch to it. Its not likely to meaningfully effect cross channel border controls until the following batches join which will probably be spring. The EU has delayed EES until Autumn 2024 which will get rid of passport stamps. ETIAS has been delayed until Spring 2025 and is the pre authorisation part. It puts talk of UK joining Schengen into perspective!

Do you mean it makes that irrelevant?

 

[Chester1]

Do you mean it makes that irrelevant?

In the short term they will cause bottlenecks while people are enrolled because they will need finger printing and their photos taken. Once the systems have bedded in then the border should be more streamlined. For a Brit entering the Schengen (or versa) after first entry on a new passport the processing time will be nearly comparable with before brexit. Processing of third country nationals that don't need visit visas will be much faster entering UK and Schengen. EES will replace passport stamps and automatically calculate how long someone has been in schengen in the previous 180 days. ETIAS will some reject people pre travel who would otherwise be turned away at the border. UK ETA does both. I was also pointing out the irony of people suggesting joining Schengen when the EU and UK are in the process of building up seperate border controls and in a way that appears to have involve some degree of coordination.

Mobico will be happy if EES actually launches next autumn but if there is yet another delay it might cause problems. It won't be ideal to launch a new service in the months afterward because it will strain capacity at St Pancras.

 

[Bald Rick]

That still leaves a sizable number of passengers for Mobico to take.

Or Eurostar, of course.

 

[Snow1964]

Linking article from Spain about how opening competition on high speed services boosts passenger numbers, 33% rise

Relevant because it seems Spanish are behind this proposed new services via Channel tunnel

Hold on tight because Spain’s high-speed train network is not just breaking records; it’s leaving them in the dust!

In a spectacular display of momentum, the second quarter of 2023 witnessed a jaw-dropping surge, with a staggering 8.32 million passengers hopping aboard the sleek, lightning-fast trains.

That’s a 33 per cent leap into the future of transportation.

Zooming across the Spanish landscape, multiple operators – Renfe, Avlo, Ouigo, and Iryo – joined forces to offer passengers an irresistible blend of competitive pricing and top-notch services.

The result? A symphony of efficiency and speed that’s transforming the way Spain travels.

Leading the charge is Renfe’s Avant(High-Speed Mid-Distance) services, an exclusive experience that attracted an additional 3.3 million passengers—an eye-popping 57 per cent surge.

Madrid-Seville​

The iconic route celebrated a milestone, welcoming over one million passengers, a 30.3 per cent increase that proves speed and convenience are an unbeatable combo.

Madrid-Malaga/Granada​

Clocking in at approximately one million passengers, this route saw a 25.8 per cent year-on-year rise, showcasing the irresistible allure of high-speed travel.

Madrid-Alicante​

With over 750,000 passengers on board, a 32.1 per cent increase signalled that the charm of Alicante is not just in its beaches but in the swift journey to get there.

Madrid-Valencia​

Prepare to be amazed by an 86 per cent growth spurt, as 1.3 million passengers hopped on the high-speed bandwagon.

Madrid-Barcelona​

The heavyweight champion of the quarter, the Madrid-Barcelona route, stole the show with a whopping 3.6 million passengers, a 36 per cent increase from the same quarter in 2022.

The surge in high-speed rail travel isn’t just about breaking records; it’s about forging a path to sustainable and cost-effective transportation.

Full Throttle: Spanish High-Speed Trains Shatter Records

Hold on tight because Spain’s high-speed train network is not just breaking records; it’s leaving them in the dust!

euroweeklynews.com

Might be why so many are jumping on the long distance trains bandwagon, especially with EU liberalising long distance travel

 

[Goldfish62]

Given that Mobico deny any involvement in this venture perhaps a change of thread title is in order?

 

[nwales58]

Might be why so many are jumping on the long distance trains bandwagon, especially with EU liberalising long distance travel

Spain is the poster child for HS open access. 3/4-way competition. Oodles of new train capacity. Suicidal fares to gain market share in the short term.

Spain shows the requirements for success include:

1) Masses of spare infrastructure capacity
2) Bog standard new infrastructure end-end (std gauge, 25Kv, ETCS level 2 ...)
3) Non-protectionist regulatory environment

They do have some problems, lack of terminal capacity in Madrid is being sorted out, but overall it has worked better than anywhere else.

OTOH that you can take your more-or-less run anywhere train and plonk it on ADIF infrastructure with relatively minor certification to go through, then if it fails commercially take the trains away and run them somewhere else in Europe reduces the *risk* on the capital investment enormously. Despite all our annoyance at the TSIs, Railway Package legislation, Commission badly-aimed sledge hammer enforcement and so on, this is the framework that has succeeded.

Compare with cross-channel:

1) Some spare paths in the tunnel and on HS1 but serious constraints at every terminal
2) Additional requirements on tunnel rolling stock, national signalling into terminals
3) 3 regulatory systems (EU, tunnel with its own legislation, UK) plus satisfying UK Border Force etc etc

So the Spanish LAVs are as close to perfect conditions as you will get for competition-enabled passenger volume growth. Cross-channel is rather far away and so doomed to disappoint.

Major passenger growth through the tunnel would need sorting out several mountains of problems. A new operator might just make that happen but I see it as a cart before horse situation. Buying new carts does little without sorting out the horse infrastructure.