Consistency wise, the Marches have pretty much never been always 175s, there's always been booked 150s and 153s particularly mornings and evenings to rotate units. The 2 car 175s haven't really been suitable for the route for many years capacity wise, if a 3 car had been as good as guaranteed then yes I'd agree it was consistent but the mix of 2 and 3 car 175s mixed In with sprinters, to the average passenger is not consistent, with a 3 car they may well get a seat, a 2 car the next are forced to stand in the vestibule.A more consistent product? I guess it depends on when you are comparing it with - if you go back to Arriva Trains Wales' standard pattern timetable the Manchester to Milford Haven / Carmarthen was pretty solidly an hourly service formed of class 175s (never in mutiple, so a mix of 2-car and 3-car). ATW's offering was very inadequate in terms of capacity between Manchester and Swansea, but it was pretty consistent. On the other hand, it wouldn't be difficult to be more-consistent than the current offer from TfW (with some 175s I assume being still grounded following the fires, leading to a stark contrast of 2-car 150s on some services and the mark 4 sets on other workings). 5-cars on nearly every TfW service between Manchester and Swansea will be a very welcome improvement in terms of capacity, but a mix of 197s and mark 4s will still be less consistent than ATW's wall-to-wall 175s Mondays to Saturdays (although on Saturdays the monotony of 175s to Milford Haven was relieved slightly by a single SO 158 diagram).
How many sets in service is that (both for the start of the new timetable and for the increased workings 2 weeks later)?
I came across some .xlsx files listing TfW diagrams in my Downloads folder last night which I don't remember downloading but I think they must have been released under the Freedom Of Information laws. This suggests five diagrams (diagram numbers 902 to 906) for mark 4 sets on Saturdays. These are supposedly LTP diagrams for Saturdays 27th May 2023 to 9th September 2023 (I've removed the shorter ECS workings - such as Canton to Cardiff Central - for clarity). Does this tie up with the current plans or are the files I have out of date?
Diagram 902
04:35 Cardiff Central to Manchester Piccadilly 08:11
08:30 Manchester Piccadilly to Cardiff Central 11:49
14:53 Cardiff Central to Manchester Piccadilly 18:11
18:30 Manchester Piccadilly to Cardiff Central 21:52
Diagram 903
04:13 Canton TMD to Swansea 05:10 ECS
05:30 Swansea to Manchester Piccadilly 10:11
10:30 Manchester Piccadilly to Cardiff Central 13:48
16:50 Cardiff Central to Manchester Piccadilly 20:11
20:25 Manchester Piccadilly to Crewe CS 21:09 ECS
Diagram 904
04:54 Crewe to Cardiff Central 07:51
10:52 Cardiff Central to Manchester Piccadilly 14:11
14:30 Manchester Piccadilly to Cardiff Central 17:53
Diagram 905
05:19 Crewe CS to Manchester Piccadilly 06:19 ECS
06:27 Manchester Piccadilly to Cardiff Central 09:54
12:52 Cardiff Central to Manchester Piccadilly 16:11
16:30 Manchester Piccadilly to Swansea 20:54
21:28 Swansea to Canton TMD 22:59 ECS
Diagram 906
08:49 Cardiff Central to Manchester Piccadilly 12:11
12:30 Manchester Piccadilly to Cardiff Central 15:35
18:55 Cardiff Central to Manchester Piccadilly 22:18
22:36 Manchester Piccadilly to Crewe CS 23:22 ECS
Once every train is booked (obviously there will still be the odd short form etc) a 5 car 197 or Mk4 then I'd maintain that to the average passenger that's more consistent as they know that they have a decent chance of getting a seat and there is no chance of a decrepit pair of 153s rolling in.
Those diagrams are slightly different to the latest ones I've seen, workings are all the same but the units do slightly different things than that. As far as I can see all 5 have had tweaks since then.