I tend to agree with Stockley. Superficially everyone is doing the same, and yes is suffering. But often the services in decline are matched by improvements elsewhere locally. A good example in The Shires where on a trunk route suffering with everything you've mentioned Arriva have carefully rearranged it to improve services/frequencies and off peak and evening services specifically. That's hardly giving up. They're also picking up routes from failed local operators. On their similar service, First seem stuck in the mud (as discussed here). I suspect what lies behind it is the longstanding resource famine, and hence my reference to TINA (the acronym, I thought, for "there is no alternative"), and sorry for the crude reference but I think FirstBus are trying to keep the wolf from the door (=starving). Stagecoach East have evident problems, but again one can see light at the end of the tunnel even in the hostile bus territory of the fens and south midlands, suffering economically. The new operators seem to be investing in Manchester. You often quote West of England at me, but from what I read everything isn't rosy (at least from a passenger perspective) and aren't they ceding trunk routes to Stagecoach, admitting a lack of resources to do the job they'd like?
You once asked me why First couldn't transfer their Eastern Counties "initiative" south of Dedham? Well, why not? In the absence of an answer, could I suggest it's because they have resource (management, operationally and fleet) to run either Eastern Counties or Essex, but not both. So they both suffer, and one more than the other. Inevitable; but who'd want to buy either? It's a question I can't answer, despite trying for long enough. They're stuck, which is why I once used the word "stuffed". I think it mirrors the position elsewhere throughout the country. When others consolidated in better times, First didn't (or couldn't). So they entered the bad times in a poor position. Isn't that the fable of the good and poor farmer?
EDIT 2: Though as long as the Competition Commission stay quiet - and why not after all Cambridge City is virtually a Stagecoach monopoly - then perhaps Eastern Counties is an ideal buy for someone; a walk-in bus company with no difficult councils or Mayor to deal with. Accepting the offer is the hard bit, but perhaps David can help there. And even if pigs do start to fly and First have a change of mind, I suspect there are hardly great prospects for growth in Norfolk and Suffolk, except perhaps for another incumbent. Essex, I suspect, is another story; maybe better long-term prospects but with a big headache, or rather one headache after another. Who wants that? I'm sure it's not alone amongst the First OpCos!
With the other companies I'm sometimes impressed by the actions of their regional and national management. With First I'm not even sure what that is, exactly. From what I can see locally the various "bits" are hardly on speaking terms, though that's nothing new (and probably predates First - though doesn't that say something about the quality of corporate management too?)
So I don't think the First bus problem is a recent development solely "caused" by current (hopefully temporary) market conditions affecting everyone - though I don't see anything to magically improve the economy despite anyone's hopes. I think it's a long term issue which they lack the will (and the resource) to tackle. Hence why I think they "have to" get shot of it. I found it interesting they talk of a lack of synergy, I always thought that for a successful business it found synergy, even in apparently disparate businesses; it wasn't something handed down like manna from heaven. To me, bluntly, if you can't find synergy, it's because you lack the will do do so. Nothing wrong with that, just get shot of it. Do you have any alternative?
Your post is a little difficult to unpick and I'm not certain that I fully appreciate all you said, so forgive me if I do misrepresent you in any way.
The fact is that the entire industry is in a real hard place. The reasons for this are many and some are ones that the industry, and most notably First, HAS to accept:
The austerity cuts that have removed many supported services and journeys that gave a decent return for a relatively minor marginal cost
A poorly funded concessionary scheme that prompts operators to almost penalise actual fare payers
Car centric policies such as the Tory decision NOT to increase fuel duty so that it makes car use ever cheaper, increasing congestion so that buses cannot operate reliably; the fact that the Busway in Cambridgeshire does well is because suddenly the bus HAS that reliability in not being stuck on the A14
Caution in developing new services and products
The rise of internet shopping (allied to an unequal battle on business rates) is destroying many a high street
Especially in Northern England and parts of Scotland, an overall economic malaise is affecting many areas
First was focussed on getting bigger and irrevocably damaged the business by not investing in the fleet (either in replacement or refurbs), abject promotion, ludicrous return thresholds - this is something that has been discussed ad nauseum over the decade and more. That has left it woefully underprepared for the impact of the changing world, which is what I think you refer to by the farmer reference.
Where First is now is that they have turned the corner in many of their OpCos. If you travel to Kernow or West of England, you will see new and refurbished buses, simplified networks, better marketing. Both operations are enjoying passenger growth and that is reflected in the finances. The same can be said of First Cymru. That's not to say it's all rosy - it is still all too easy to get a Kernow Trident suitably repainted but with a faded interior but they are clearly on the right lines. Similarly, First West of England have had to withdraw two trunk services though when you look at them, the Severn Express received new deckers in 2017 and has been promoted - it's just the removal of bridge tolls (and security issues in the Chepstow outbase) that has done for it.
The problem with First is that you do have these exemplars of best practice. It's now extending to First Midlands with Worcester (Salt Road and Nimrod), Leicester (Braunstone) and looks like Potteries is getting the treatment with Kingfisher - yes, they're using Best Impressions to properly market certain routes. First Eastern Counties are doing well with some local (supported by BI) marketing and that's why I question why that influence hasn't extended to Essex. Similarly, having travelled on First West Yorkshire and First South Yorkshire, you wonder why the good stuff in the West ISN'T replicated in the People's Republic? In fact, you can make the argument that by decentralising from the Moir era Aberdeen citadel, it's highlighted the differences between the management teams in different OpCos. Mind you, some of these local differences are also caused by the quality/enthusiasm of the local authority. I've recorded my views of Buses of Somerset (and by god, did someone get bent out of shape) and it's not great though given the tough operating territory and the apathy of Somerset CC, it's perhaps understandable.
First Essex is one of the First OpCos that I really don't know. As you know, WoE is my local firm but in the last year or so, I've notched up days (providing snapshots, I agree) on Manchester, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Cymru, Kernow, Somerset, Berkshire, Worcester - I do travel on other non-First buses too. It (Essex) feels like it should be an area with potential and so why that hasn't been exploited, I just don't know. There is certainly a fair bit of best practice that they could take, and it doesn't have to involve Ray Stenning.
I will point out that if you look at the major groups, they are all cutting back their services. Interestingly, whilst Stagecoach West are taking on Severn Express from First, they are doing so whilst at the same time, effectively halving the main trunk route from the Forest of Dean to Gloucester to achieve it. You mention Arriva but look at their operations compared with the mid 2000s where they've vacated large tracts of the country.
No one can gloss over the issues that First have but the entire industry is hurting, illustrated by how many small firms are going to the wall.
