Freezing weather on the way

[Wivenswold]

A heads-up more than news at this stage but there's surprisingly early agreement from the weather models that we're about a week away from very cold weather with snow in many places. The synoptics are very similar to 2009 and 2010.

If you're planning a lengthy cross-country trip at the end of the coming week or over next weekend, I'd recommend having an alternative plan in case the unusually low temperatures for December cause disruption.

 

[150249]

Met Office saying possible snow for the South west on 13th and 14th December (mostly the latter). Unfortunately I don't have an article to post here.

 

[Snow1964]

Not sure if this weather model will help explain, (or if mods will say it is not allowed as there is no text to link, and I don’t know how to make it display as a permanent image ). Basically there is very cold air over Siberia and Arctic. The jet stream is dipping to the South of UK and the cold air tumbles over UK (the surface temperatures are usually about 8-10c higher than the air at altitude in the charts, but will be sub zero )

It is a very similar scenario to 2010, or 1981 and the air passing over the relatively warm sea will create what is often known as lake effect snow (collects moisture then as air hits land it drops the moisture). Further west interactions with pockets of lower pressure air could produce snow just about anywhere

https://content-eu.invisioncic.com/d321955/monthly_2022_12/E38A3A3C-CA72-49F4-A60F-B66A78CFC405.png.5bef36bf2b0f12592e61f938194c6a24.png

Keep your shovel handy, and make sure your car has winter rated tyres (they have 3PMSF, 3 peaked mountain and snowflake symbol) to be safe.

There could potentially be some strain on gas and electricity grid. Although a decent layer of snow does help insulate the roof of your house.

 

[Lost property]

There's also another, potentially worse, scenario. Watched a programme about the infamous winter of 1963...which I am in no hurry to see repeated, and one feature that led to the conditions was a High to the North and another to the East, which combined to form a "block"...same forecast for the not too distant future.

As an aside, some fascinating footage of rail operations, including the complete lack of cold weather clothing !...which was normal I know for that era....and how the nation became almost reliant on the resilience of the network for transportation of freight and passengers.

Anyway, until the first flakes fall to a depth of 1 mm in London, only then will we see, and hear, "UK hit by snow and blizzards !"..even if the rest of the UK has long since been snowed in.

 

[Freightmaster]

...I don’t know how to make it display as a permanent image

Here you go:

 

[McRhu]

Keep your eyes on the A939 Cockbridge to Tomintoul Road. A surer barometer of inclementious precipitation there never was.

 

[brad465]

There could potentially be some strain on gas and electricity grid. Although a decent layer of snow does help insulate the roof of your house.

And if there's no snow on the roof, here's a possible explanation:

Snow melting on the roof: 2018 weed grower, 2020 crypto miner, 2022 lottery winner

Funny lolcontent from StareCat.com - CLICK TO SEE!

starecat.com

Image of terraced houses with one roof snow free, and the caption: 2018: Weed Grower, 2020: Crypto Miner, 2022: Lottery winner

 

[matthewjohnson]

I doubt it will amount to much (weather sites are all showing light sleet or snow showers at worst currently) but will be used as yet another excuse for the railways not to provide a service

 

[yorksrob]

And if there's no snow on the roof, here's a possible explanation:

Snow melting on the roof: 2018 weed grower, 2020 crypto miner, 2022 lottery winner

Funny lolcontent from StareCat.com - CLICK TO SEE!

starecat.com

View attachment 124655
Image of terraced houses with one roof snow free, and the caption: 2018: Weed Grower, 2020: Crypto Miner, 2022: Lottery winner

Very witty

 

[Essan]

Yes, definite signs now of a potential significant cold/snowy spell setting in from next week - though, as always, impossible to pin down details and the weather being the weather, it could yet decide not to do what the computer models currently think it will

But with the likelihood of an increased strain on our energy supplies, what impact would there be if the trains weren't running (for any reason)? How much of our electricty generation do they use? Would no trains reduce the likelihood of power cuts?

 

[Wynd]

Time to get the Snow Ploughs sitting in Doncaster yard up and over the Border. Let's not have another winter where both the ECML and WCML get blocked simultaneously.

 

[uglymonkey]

Well, they certainly would not be doing that if the SNP had their way. "English ploughs for English snow" would go the daily hiel.

 

[yorksrob]

It's bloomin cold enough already for my taste !

 

[cygnus44]

It must be December, we get this every year rarely ever happens, just media hype to sell the papers.

 

[ainsworth74]

It must be December, we get this every year rarely ever happens, just media hype to sell the papers.

The Express usually loses its mind about SNOW DISASTER PREDICTED TO HIT BRITAIN NEXT WEEK etc etc. But most and the rest are typically a little more sensible. The Met Office are certainly a bit more measured but even they are suggesting it'll be colder and there may well be snow. This is the long range forecast for the next two weeks as it stands right now:

Wednesday 7 Dec - Friday 16 Dec​

There is reasonable confidence that temperatures will remain below average, and it looks like turning even colder from Wednesday. Showers will fall increasingly as snow in the north, even to lower levels at times with notable accumulations over the Scottish mountains. There is a low risk in the far southwest, of a more prolonged spell of rain, which would turn to snow over the moors, but this is far from certain. The best of the clear or sunny spells looks most likely in the west, though this could lead to some hard night frosts. Towards mid-month, the signal for below average temperatures weakens with hints of milder, wetter conditions pushing in from the southwest - though any such features could be preceded by a period of hill snow.

UK weather

Tromso-Langnes The latest UK weather forecast. Includes UK weather for today, tomorrow and long range forecasts up to 28 days.

www.metoffice.gov.uk

But they're being quite measured and caveating their forecast quite carefully. Whether the media bother to keep those caveats of course....

 

[Mogster]

It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any N hemisphere effects from the Tonga volcano. The S hemisphere effects haven’t been reported much in the UK media but are quite dramatic.

The January eruption of Hunga Tonga in the South Pacific has injected a large amount of water vapor into the stratosphere. That water vapor is now causing significant cooling of the southern stratosphere, continuing into late Fall and early Winter.

We looked at the historical data and found that there is a weak indication of the south stratospheric cooling, coinciding with later stratospheric warming events over the northern hemisphere. But much more research is needed, as other background signals can be at play.

Stratospheric warming during the northern hemisphere winter can mean a heavy disruption of circulation. This causes pressure changes and can unleash cold air from the Arctic into the United States and Europe.

It would make sense for the changes in the stratosphere on the southern side of the planet could also impact the northern hemisphere. As the cooling in the southern hemisphere is substantial, the upcoming winter will be a great real-life “lab test” of the potential global weather changes.

A significant cooling event continues in the Stratosphere due to the large Water Vapor cloud, but can it impact the upcoming Winter Season?

The strong cooling event continues in the southern stratosphere, potentially influencing the Winter 2022/2023 seasonal weather patterns

www.severe-weather.eu

 

[Snow1964]

The UK Met office have now updated their weather warnings and added a number of Ice warnings for Thursday

Some disruption is likely due to icy surfaces

What to expect​

• Some injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces
• Probably some icy patches on some untreated roads, pavements and cycle paths
• Some roads and railways may be affected with longer journey times by road, bus and train services

UK weather warnings - Met Office

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, wind, snow, ice, fog, thunderstorm, lightning and extreme heat.

www.metoffice.gov.uk

 

[kristiang85]

I doubt it will amount to much (weather sites are all showing light sleet or snow showers at worst currently) but will be used as yet another excuse for the railways not to provide a service

And probably another excuse for the government to tell us to stay in 'for our safety'.

It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any N hemisphere effects from the Tonga volcano. The S hemisphere effects haven’t been reported much in the UK media but are quite dramatic.

A significant cooling event continues in the Stratosphere due to the large Water Vapor cloud, but can it impact the upcoming Winter Season?

The strong cooling event continues in the southern stratosphere, potentially influencing the Winter 2022/2023 seasonal weather patterns

www.severe-weather.eu

Yes, I've been wondering this. Although there were indications that Pinatubo in 1991 actually led to a slightly warmer winter up here, but the mid-latitudes (Middle East area) were cooled.

 

[DarloRich]

Time to get the Snow Ploughs sitting in Doncaster yard up and over the Border. Let's not have another winter where both the ECML and WCML get blocked simultaneously.

And what will clear the snow in Yorkshire/north east? Personally I would use the snow moving equipment based in Scotland to clear snow in Scotland but each to thier own!

 

[RT4038]

And what will clear the snow in Yorkshire/north east? Personally I would use the snow moving equipment based in Scotland to clear snow in Scotland but each to thier own!

Surely the snow clearing equipment in Scotland will have bid for, and won, the contract for the St. Ives branch?

 

[mike57]

Forecasts/Models have been pretty consistent about snow on our part of the east coast for Thursday, amounts and exact timing have been moving around a bit as they do as the timeframe shortens but its been similar since last Friday.


Then turning slightly milder, and a wet (but still cold just not snow cold) spell at the start of next week

 

[Wynd]

And what will clear the snow in Yorkshire/north east? Personally I would use the snow moving equipment based in Scotland to clear snow in Scotland but each to thier own!

Em, the other ploughs that wont be going to Scotland. There are about 6 of these ploughs.

 

[Snow1964]

Met office update Sunday 11th until Tuesday 20th December
Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 6 Dec 2022

Who was it joking about taking a snowplough to St Ives branch when it includes ….increasingly likely to progress into southwestern areas at times, with potential for significant snowfall …..

Cold weather is expected to continue through at least Sunday and into the beginning of next week, particularly in the north. Wintry showers will mainly affect coastal regions, with snow most likely over higher ground but perhaps falling to lower levels at times. By contrast, inland areas should see more in the way of fine and dry weather, with widespread frosts locally severe at times. While timing is uncertain for now, areas of cloud, rain and stronger winds are increasingly likely to progress into southwestern areas at times, with potential for significant snowfall along the leading edge of such systems. Temperatures remaining cold to very cold, with a chance of returning closer to normal across the south later into the period.

Weather and climate change

Met Office weather forecasts for the UK. World leading weather services for the public.

www.metoffice.gov.uk

 

[route101]

Was a cold and frosty morning today. One thing about my car is that it steams too easily. you put the fan on to clear the steam but heats up the car. Better to drive with a window down!

 

[Snow1964]

Was a cold and frosty morning today. One thing about my car is that it steams too easily. you put the fan on to clear the steam but heats up the car. Better to drive with a window down!

I find about 2-3 minutes on max on the window, then switch it back to auto mode. The air dryer in the air conditioning does the work.

I leave air conditioning on all year, might cost pound or two of extra fuel each month, but on previous car it never needed a service or a regas in 10 years, cheaper than getting it cleaned and fixed every 2 years.

 

[GS250]

I find about 2-3 minutes on max on the window, then switch it back to auto mode. The air dryer in the air conditioning does the work.

I leave air conditioning on all year, might cost pound or two of extra fuel each month, but on previous car it never needed a service or a regas in 10 years, cheaper than getting it cleaned and fixed every 2 years.

Same here. Mine is left on auto permanently. I believe even when the system isn't actually doing any cooling...it's still maintaining itself.

As far as snow goes I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[route101]

I find about 2-3 minutes on max on the window, then switch it back to auto mode. The air dryer in the air conditioning does the work.

I leave air conditioning on all year, might cost pound or two of extra fuel each month, but on previous car it never needed a service or a regas in 10 years, cheaper than getting it cleaned and fixed every 2 years.

I had a stress crack on my windscreen last week at the bottom, was thinking that was caused by the heater.

 

[450.emu]

I had a stress crack on my windscreen last week at the bottom, was thinking that was caused by the heater.

The Mrs told me the other day that Darren from Autoglass put some special resin in her crack, but there's nothing wrong with the car

Southern Britain could be hit with 'significant snow' next week

The UK could see a major 'snow event' next week as early warning signs of disruptive cold weather develop in the Atlantic, with the Met Office warning temperatures well below freezing.

www.dailymail.co.uk

It's already bitterly cold where I am in North London, this part of West Anglia / Lea Valley always gets a lot of snow when or if it comes. Strangely enough, in West London, it's just rain... perhaps all the congestion from traffic keeps the temperatures higher. If you have a Toyota hybrid, use B on the gearbox for better traction in Brake mode in icy weather, so the CVT box doesn't keep spinning the front wheels up when moving off

 

[Snow1964]

If you have a Toyota hybrid, use B on the gearbox for better traction in Brake mode in icy weather, so the CVT box doesn't keep spinning the front wheels up when moving off

Whatever your car, if you have summer (only) tyres, they will be hopeless in snow, and won’t get up even gentle incline (and spinning means tyres not good in cold weather either, usually below +10c in wet). Remember if you can spin the wheels starting, they would probably not grip in an emergency stop either. It’s also not good form to block the road in case emergency vehicle needs to get through (They of course also dont use summer tyres in winter)

Those with all season (all year) tyres, or winter tyres should be ok, always worth buying all season tyres when you renew tyres in UK. Around here (semi-rural Wiltshire), all the courier vans and supermarket delivery vans are fitted with all seasons (obvious from diagonal tread grooves). Minor roads and lanes aren’t treated here, so can get frosty and slippy any time from November to April.

 

[Geezertronic]

My only hope is that people are able to heat their homes accordingly during the cold weather. I for one have been watching the Smart Meter only to discover that it was under-reporting the amount of £ spent per day so apart from it being next to useless, I found that my house is costing me almost double compared to what the Smart Meter was saying