Gales in northern Britain tomorrow—how will the ECML fare?

[Eagle]

The Met Office has issued a weather warning for gale-force winds across central Scotland:

Very strong winds will affect northern Britain on Wednesday, including the populated Central Lowlands of Scotland. Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are expected, with 80 to 90 mph possible in exposed coastal areas of the west. The public should be aware that this could cause disruption to transport.

Issued: 27 December 2011, 10:35
Valid: 28 December 2011, 09:00–23:59

Now I'm due to take the 13.00 service from London KX to Edinburgh tomorrow, and looking at detailed forecasts the worst of the wind will be around 16.00 or so, exactly when my train's on the northernmost part of the ECML through Northumberland and the Borders. What do you reckon the chances of my train being majorly disrupted are, and is it worth switching over to the WCML from Euston instead (I'm on an Any Permitted ticket) bearing in mind that could be affected too?

 

[150222]

Taking into account the proximity to the sea near alnwick and how crap the ECML wires are then that sounds like a good idea.

 

[ainsworth74]

If it doesn't cost you any extra time then you might as well but I wouldn't bother if it's going to cost you an hour extra or so as I personally think that the wires coming down on the north end of the ECML is actually much rarer than it is on the southern end.

Edit: Also 4,000th post!!!

 

[Eagle]

Well I think I can make the 12.30 London Euston–Lancaster (I'm arriving into Waterloo at 11.49; this does violate the minimum connection times but I can easily do Waterloo to Euston in 20) and then change to the following TPE service, which only delays me by 17 minutes overall... I'll see how it looks at noon tomorrow I think.

 

[tsr]

I've just taken a look at some GFS modelling readouts which shows that the wind may affect the geographical areas of the WCML and ECML equally. Obviously since it's a low pressure area travelling West-East across the Atlantic, the WCML may well be the first to start to see any effects of the wind. EDIT: The first strong gusts will probably hit the northern areas of the WCML at about 1130 and spread by 1500 to the ECML. I can't tell precise locations or dates from my readout, of course, and it would be foolish to suggest I could.

 

[Daz28]

WCML is affected by signal problems - Virgin trains are being diverted and tickets accepted by other operators.

 

[chris89]

Signalling problems are now over according to nat rail. But on an edinburgh bound service now so will mention if any delays when we get to crewe etc. Just past Stafford. If strong winds on the WCML and restrictions shall say as well. When the train gets to the northern section.

 

[142094]

Wind is picking up here in Newcastle, so might be some speed restrictions later on between here and Edinburgh for the 225s. Nothing showing as delayed through Newcastle yet though.

 

[alexf380]

The ScotRail website shows Severe disruption in Central Scotland and East Coast say there is a line problem between Doncaster and York.

 

[142094]

Signalling problem at Grantham, 30 min delays. 14.57 from Barrhead to GLC is cancelled, only other delay I can see is the 13.56 from EDB which is 14 down at Shotts.

 

[wensley]

Few little problems today on the ECML but last I heard there are currently no SRs on 225 sets on the route, despite it being rather gusty!!

As mentioned on-going signalling issues on the Southern ECML causing a few problems, generally 20-25mins.

There was an issue near Doncaster that caused around 20mins delay to a few services, missing droppers being reported by a passing train resulting in a stop and examine for 1S14, from what I understand, and other services were delayed. 1N92 was 21L ex-York as a result, a few other ECs also lost time.

With regards to the 1300 ex-KGX (1S18), seems to have had a fair enough run. 6L off Berwick but nothing major, hope the journey went OK!