General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[Xenophon PCDGS]

One of the most interesting factors will be the turnout. I would care to wager it will be nowhere near the level of the recent Scottish Referendum (including in Scotland itself).

My guess would be a Coalition....Either Labour/SNP or more of the same

I may be mistaken, but I am sure that I heard comments expressed some time ago in a radio interview that the SNP would have nothing whatsoever to do with any Labour Party coalition.

 

[St Rollox]

Be interesting to see where the LibDem votes go if/when their vote says thanks but no thanks.
I'm yet to be convinced a Tory/Labour national Goverment isn't a possibility, for a number of reasons.

 

[Greenback]

It is a possibility, just an unlikely one, as each of those parties would prefer not to be in coalition with the other if they can help it. It would be an absolute last resort!

 

[ainsworth74]

I think rather than formal coaltions as we have had this time I suspect it'll have to be on a policy by policy basis as after the burning that the Lib Dems got I'm not sure anyone would be willing to tie themselves like that again.

 

[bb21]

The big question of the election is the UKIP position. However, I believe that their appeal is much more rooted in the traditional Labour vote (particularly on the immigration issue, which has been a Labour problem since the 60s). If Labour continue to ignore this, they may well find things not going their way, perhaps not in losing seats to the Kippers as in not winning the marginals they are expecting.

I wouldn't bet against it.

I can't see middle England switching allegiance so the Tory votes are safer compared to other parties relatively speaking. I can see a swing from Labour to UKIP but I reckon Labour can hold on to most seats due to the swing from Lib Dems. The extent of the swing from Labour to UKIP may be crucial in deciding how many MPs the latter end up with, though I am not convinced that under our system UKIP can gain much because I don't think their support is as strong as they would like to make out. People do funny things at general elections and behave completely differently to how they vote at local and European elections. Never say never though so if UKIP end up with ten or more MPs don't shoot me.

 

[Tetchytyke]

First Past The Post leaves us with an electoral system that encourages people to vote against who they dislike and not in favour of who they do like. The Tories are getting the message out early that a vote for Farage puts Miliband in Number Ten, and they're right- it will do. Tory supporters won't vote UKIP in case it gives them Miliband, and Labour supporters won't vote UKIP in case it gives them Cameron. The Greens will experience exactly the same problem.

I think UKIP will keep what they have, as will the Greens, but I don't really see any gains for either party- unless there's a defection. The only spanner in the works will be the Great Spanner himself, Miliband, whose political ineptitude and Tory Lite ideology could well see Labour supporters move to UKIP.

2010 was an unlosable election for the Conservatives yet Iggle Piggle managed to lose it. I wouldn't bet against something similar happening this time round. His only saving grace will be the fact that Ed Miliband is a cretin, too stupid to realise that his core voters don't want Tory Lite and too stupid to realise that Big Business doesn't want Tory Lite either, not when they can have the real deal in all its psychopathic kleptomaniacal glory.

The SNP have said they will not enter a coalition with anyone, voting on a policy-by-policy basis, and I can see them wiping out Labour in Scotland. That could be enough to put Cameron back in Number Ten, although probably not with a majority.

The other interesting thing is that we now have fixed term Parliaments, so whatever get now we're stuck with until 2020. It will encourage more horse-trading, and takes away the incentive for parties to tie themselves into formal coalitions. The Lib Dems have been badly burned by the Tories, getting the blame for the truly evil Gove and Hunt despite actually managing to tone the Tories down, and they won't want a repeat.

 

[Manchester77]

Indeed although the greens are polling a close second in Bristol West at 25% so it looks like - if they campeign really well - we could see a friend for Caroline Lucas!

 

[Oswyntail]

...
2010 was an unlosable election for the Conservatives yet Iggle Piggle managed to lose it. ... the fact that Ed Miliband is a cretin,.... the truly evil Gove and Hunt .....

And so it begins :roll: I fully expect a few months of such reasoned political analysis, followed by the followers of whoever takes fewer seats claiming they wuz robbed (as has been a constant refrain for 4 years). Running the UK reduced to the level of supporting a football club.

 

[Clip]

The fat cats at Serco will win it you mark my angry words.

 

[47802]

Of course Labour should have won this election easily, but thanks to the Unions we got Ed instead of David, so I hope all those lefty Union leaders enjoy another five years of Tory/Coalition government.

 

[rdeez]

I predict a protracted period of arguments over policies, who loves the NHS more, who will do more to stop immigration, who looks after "bread and butter" families (or whatever the favored term for the middle classes is at the moment) better, followed by a vote with predictably low turnout and the election of a party or parties that promptly renege on approximately 75% of their pre-election promises, claiming it was never a firm commitment or that it was found to be unworkable, a theme that continues for 5 years until the whole process starts once again.

Yay, democracy!

 

[Greenback]

I predict a protracted period of arguments over policies, who loves the NHS more, who will do more to stop immigration, who looks after "bread and butter" families (or whatever the favored term for the middle classes is at the moment) better, followed by a vote with predictably low turnout and the election of a party or parties that promptly renege on approximately 75% of their pre-election promises, claiming it was never a firm commitment or that it was found to be unworkable, a theme that continues for 5 years until the whole process starts once again.

The sheer predictability and the ensuing tedium combined with endless coverage of the main parties hurling insults at each other more or less guarantees a low turn out.

I have already decided who will get my vote, and nothing that happens over the next four months is likely to change my mind, or the fact that said vote will have no effect in the end.

 

[muddythefish]

I have already decided who will get my vote, and nothing that happens over the next four months is likely to change my mind, or the fact that said vote will have no effect in the end.

Me too, and I think many others.

 

[bussnapperwm]

I have a slight idea who I'm voting for but my vote will depend on what happens.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

I may be mistaken, but I am sure that I heard comments expressed some time ago in a radio interview that the SNP would have nothing whatsoever to do with any Labour Party coalition.

I don't think Nicola Sturgeon has expressly ruled it out but has categorically stated that the SNP will never work with the Tories. Personally I think the SNP would prefer a more loose working relationship with a minority Labour government but if there is a danger if the Tories forming a smaller coalition with UKIP a then hey may be forced into larger coalition with Labour to stop policies like an exit from the EU. It all depends on exact numbers post May 7th.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

The other interesting thing is that we now have fixed term Parliaments.

Wasn't one reason for fixed terms to take away all the speculation over an election date opnce we got to the 4 year mark in any Government?

We seem to have instead simply traded a year or so of election fever followed by a month or so of intense campaigning for four months of intense campaigning... :roll:

 

[Greenback]

We seem to have instead simply traded a year or so of election fever followed by a month or so of intense campaigning for four months of intense campaigning... :roll:

That's not much of a trade in my book!

 

[Oswyntail]

Wasn't one reason for fixed terms to take away all the speculation over an election date opnce we got to the 4 year mark in any Government?

We seem to have instead simply traded a year or so of election fever followed by a month or so of intense campaigning for four months of intense campaigning... :roll:

I think the chief reason was to do away with "snap elections" where a PM could call one to take advantage of current events that would favour his party. With fixed terms, a Government has to plan for the full term

 

[Tetchytyke]

And so it begins :roll: I fully expect a few months of such reasoned political analysis, followed by the followers of whoever takes fewer seats claiming they wuz robbed

I'm trying to work out which bit you're actually disagreeing with.

The Conservatives should have won the 2010 election comfortably, against one of the most pitied Prime Ministers in living memory. They didn't. They ended up scrabbling around begging people to form a coalition.

Ed Miliband's approval ratings are far lower than where they should be, and many experts believe he is actively damaging Labour's chances of winning the next election.

Running the UK reduced to the level of supporting a football club.

Shouting, braying, booing, yelling abuse at each other?

Sounds like Prime Minister's Questions to me.

The fat cats at Serco will win it you mark my angry words.

Damn right I'm angry about what a dump this country has turned into, with anything that isn't nailed down being flogged off (at an undervalue) to the oligarchs. Serco are the figurehead for all that's wrong with this country, defrauding the taxpayer of millions yet being handed ever more contracts on a plate.

Anyone would think they donated millions to political parties, through "consultancy assistance" and the like.

I'm not sure who I'll vote for, as there isn't yet a "none of the above" option. They're all as bad as each other, pretending to be interested in "hard working families" but instead undertaking the largest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich since feudalism.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I think the chief reason was to do away with "snap elections" where a PM could call one to take advantage of current events that would favour his party.

Yeah, pretty much. It was to provide some stability to Government, so that everyone always knows when the next election will be and can plan accordingly. It prevents snap elections when the wind is blowing favourably, which is definitely a good thing.

Whether it gives us the desired stability or not remains to be seen.

 

[WatcherZero]

Greens have come out with their transport policy, cut rail and bus fares by 10% (cost £1.8bn per year) by cutting £15bn from investment in roads.

Not sure really its a good idea to be cutting capital investment to pay for revenue service in the long term.

 

[Oswyntail]

I'm trying to work out which bit you're actually disagreeing with.....

(As usual with me) It's the language. Miliband is not a "cretin", Hunt and Gove are far from "evil", but the use of extreme language is often to hide a lack of analysis. Actually, what they are all doing is understandable, and differs only slightly from any alternatives on offer. But it is generally more helpful to say "I disagree with their approach because of this detail".
And if the only criticism you can find of the PM is that he looks like a children's TV character, he must be doing something right.

 

[Tetchytyke]

(As usual with me) It's the language. Miliband is not a "cretin", Hunt and Gove are far from "evil", but the use of extreme language is often to hide a lack of analysis.

That depends if one uses the colloquial or the medical term

Miliband has a worrying lack of political nous, as shown by the fact half his own party cannot stand him and the general public definitely can't. He doesn't seem to have the courage of his own convictions, flip-flopping around depending on what the latest focus group tells him. It's a real shame. I suspect I'd probably quite like many of his real political views, if he ever got brave enough to actually show them.

I think we will have to agree to disagree about Gove and Hunt; and Duncan-Smith and Grayling for that matter. For most politicians I am happy to believe that they are misguided rather than malicious, but with those I am not. I did not use the word evil for hyperbolic effect.

Duncan-Smith is a proven liar (and that's before we consider the hypocrisy of someone using "scrounger" rhetoric whilst claiming for £49.99 hotel breakfasts on expenses), Gove and Hunt are disingenuous ideologues, and Grayling's attempts to legislate Judicial Review out of existence (simply because he keeps getting told his "reform" of the criminal justice system is unlawful) is deplorable.

The comparison of Cameron to a children's TV character was not limited to his physical appearance.

 

[St Rollox]

Not up to speed with the opinion polls.
Are Ukip starting to show a drop in their support?

 

[Buttsy]

I have already decided who will get my vote, and nothing that happens over the next four months is likely to change my mind.

I wish I could say the same. Part of me wants to vote Green, but as I'm in a marginal and I don't particularly want more Cameron (you're not in it with us Dave), part of me wants to vote against the incumbent Tory. Doing this is not helped by the fact that the Lib Dems were second last time around and votes are going to haemorrage from them.

 

[Greenback]

I wish I could say the same. Part of me wants to vote Green, but as I'm in a marginal and I don't particularly want more Cameron (you're not in it with us Dave), part of me wants to vote against the incumbent Tory. Doing this is not helped by the fact that the Lib Dems were second last time around and votes are going to haemorrage from them.

I realise that I'm likely to be in a minority in that I know who will get my vote. Partly this is down to the local situation, partly because it's been easy to decide who NOT to vote for!

Looking at your situation, I'd make a decision to vote Green now!

 

[muddythefish]

Miliband has a worrying lack of political nous, as shown by the fact half his own party cannot stand him and the general public definitely can't.

Ever since he was elected Labour leader, everyone - the Conservative party, the media and some but not all of the general public - have under-estimated Ed Miliband, forgetting that for most of the past 4 years or so he has set the agenda for this government by consistently putting it on the back foot over its policies. That bastion of decency and fairness, the wonderful Eric Pickles, admitted as much some time ago. Don't be surprised if Miliband continues to defy the odds in May.

 

[Busaholic]

Essex University's top numbercrunchers have been tasked by BBC2's Newsnight programme to analyse opinion polls and all other data for the next four months, not just nationally but within geographic areas, even down to constituency level. The first of these 'snapshots' (carefully NOT called predictions) was screened last night and showed, if a General Election were to be held right now, a possible result of Labour 286 seats, Conservative 280, SNP 29 (?), LD 26, UKIP 3, Green 1. I'm going from memory but know SNP had more than LD. I'm ignoring N.I. because I didn't take it in. The Tory share of the vote was 1% more than Labour's, but the share of seats slightly fewer. So a coalition might have to consist of THREE parties!

On a slightly wider tack, of ten possible permutations of current voting trends, only one involves majority government i.e. by one single party.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Not up to speed with the opinion polls.
Are Ukip starting to show a drop in their support?

Yes, recently. There have been a few gaffes here and there.

I wouldn't expect any large drop in support until after the election.

 

[Cambus731]

I voted Green in 2010 but their opposition to HS2 has lost them my vote. Plus there is a slim chance of Labour winning my seat so they have my vote. I do wish that they would throw their weight behind returning the passenger railway system to the public sector though. It would be easier yo re nationalise the passenger railway than some commentators would have you believe given that the permanent way is already state owned and that there is no need to buy back the ROSCOS or re nationalise freight. I'd also like to see this fixed terms business rescinded.

 

[Butts]

I have seen some predictions that Labour will win the most seats but actually get fewer votes than the Conservatives, thanks to the vagaries of the Electoral System.