Getlink aiming to double the number of destinations from London in ten years

[MatthewHutton]

I would question where exactly the tourism statistics have been derived from. That is an average of about 113 passengers per day. If they are to be taken at face value, they presumably split between 'via Barcelona' , those travelling to Northern Spain via Hendaye/Irun and a trickle by more convoluted routes including overnight. One train could not hope to cater for all of those 113 passengers requirements and certainly would not be able to serve 'via Barcelona' and the Northern Spain destinations. So perhaps there are 56 passengers per day that a through Lille-Madrid via Barcelona would cater conveniently for. Perhaps you could quadruple that number by more convenient service and adding Low countries traffic. Would that be enough for 'something worthwhile' (bearing in mind the enormous cost of running Amsterdam-Madrid) ? Doubt it.

The tourism statistics come from the government people who come round and ask at the airport or Eurostar and are presumably reliable.

I would assume the bulk right now are going via Barcelona to be honest - but anyway the cost to run a marginal high speed train on existing infrastructure is low, almost certainly less than 100 passengers per train. Don’t forget the vast majority of the railways costs are fixed.

Don’t also forget there are plenty of British trains that presumably make an operating profit but that have very low passenger numbers.

Changes are never "easy" in leisure travel. Which most UK to Spain travellers are.
Hence why there was the summer Eurostar service to the south of France with the Lille shuffle "change" on the UK direction of the journey.
I would suggest first looking at reinstating UK- Marseille etc. as a trial of a potential London - Barcelona service.

Or perhaps market a Barcelona service as part of a holiday package as the former Disneyland service. Or what ferry companies do as a mini cruise from the UK to Holland/France/Spain, where the journey is already part of the holiday.

The problem with the summer Marseille train is that the UK departure on a Saturday was too early to be able to get a connecting service even from the south east. Probably if you are running one train it shouldn’t depart London until 9-10am.

 

[nwales58]

The tourism statistics come from the government people who come round and ask at the airport or Eurostar and are presumably reliable.

Reliable, no. Not for that kind of question by a long way.

IPS, the International Passenger Survey, is very roughly a 0.1% sample nowadays. Think of it as each response is multiplied by 1000 (though it’s more complicated than that because you try to weight to take out biases, look up IPS on ons.gov.uk).

So 41000 comes from about 41 responses (probably fewer, no point in explaining). 95% confidence interval very roughly 25000 to 55000. IPS is not designed to analyse links in a trip so my subjective confidence is much lower.

It’s possible the number came from somewhere other than UK IPS but you’ll never get this kind of number reliably at affordable cost.

For what it’s worth, I used to work with this stuff.

 

[BahrainLad]

Having 5000 people per hour tip out at the Betjeman Arms is going to need a couple of escalators at the least to take people down to the tube and the main concourse. At present, the only exits from that area are a passageway outside onto the old frontage of the station - which is pretty useless for the vast majority of arriving passengers onward travel needs - and a staircase/lift opposite Carluccios. There needs to be a better way of getting a high volume of passengers down into the main circulating area of the station for their next journeys be that tube, rail, KGX or taxi.

Just as a data point - 5000pph is 83 ppm. TFL say an escalator can cope with 100 ppm and a staircase 35 ppm.

 

[Trainbike46]

Having 5000 people per hour tip out at the Betjeman Arms is going to need a couple of escalators at the least to take people down to the tube and the main concourse. At present, the only exits from that area are a passageway outside onto the old frontage of the station - which is pretty useless for the vast majority of arriving passengers onward travel needs - and a staircase/lift opposite Carluccios. There needs to be a better way of getting a high volume of passengers down into the main circulating area of the station for their next journeys be that tube, rail, KGX or taxi.

Just as a data point - 5000pph is 83 ppm. TFL say an escalator can cope with 100 ppm and a staircase 35 ppm.

You need to consider though that those passenger will arrive in large batches at the same time, both because individual trains arrive at one time, and because the paths mean that two trains arriving in quick succession is almost guaranteed.

 

[Bald Rick]

You need to consider though that those passenger will arrive in large batches at the same time, both because individual trains arrive at one time, and because the paths mean that two trains arriving in quick succession is almost guaranteed.

Quite. 1800 people arriving in 4 minutes is quite conceivable.…

 

[BahrainLad]

Yes … that was the point I was making … being able to cope with 5000 arrivals per hour is far more complex a problem than just saying “let them arrive upstairs” when at the moment there isn’t really anywhere for them to go after that!

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

What irritates me is that the reconstructed St.Pancras cost something north of £800m, yet the arrangements for international passengers have been hopeless from the start. Y' know, one of the main purposes of the thing! The cranky entrance from the Euston Road through the 'hole in the wall', the ticket barriers / border control in a dark corridor, the inadequate waiting area...

Presumably, it was 'right-sized' to use horrible management bable when the projected 20m pa passengers at Waterloo failed to materialise? Growth has come, however, with the faster HS1 journey times and now the prospect of new operators.

 

[Krokodil]

Quite. 1800 people arriving in 4 minutes is quite conceivable.…

Well yesterday I witnessed the queues for the escalators that form when the 18:01 Paris and 18:04 Brussels both get called on adjacent platforms. Some woman was moaning about it, making comparisons with airlines. How often do you see three A380s being boarded from the same gate all at once? Everyone was seated with plenty of time before departure.

 

[Bald Rick]

Well yesterday I witnessed the queues for the escalators that form when the 18:01 Paris and 18:04 Brussels both get called on adjacent platforms. Some woman was moaning about it, making comparisons with airlines. How often do you see three A380s being boarded from the same gate all at once? Everyone was seated with plenty of time before departure.

I’m sure. Slightly differenet for arrivals though.

 

[MatthewHutton]

Well yesterday I witnessed the queues for the escalators that form when the 18:01 Paris and 18:04 Brussels both get called on adjacent platforms. Some woman was moaning about it, making comparisons with airlines. How often do you see three A380s being boarded from the same gate all at once? Everyone was seated with plenty of time before departure.

They could typically allow boarding of the train a LOT earlier.

I have had to wait downstairs when the train had arrived from the depot and was just waiting.

Reliable, no. Not for that kind of question by a long way.

IPS, the International Passenger Survey, is very roughly a 0.1% sample nowadays. Think of it as each response is multiplied by 1000 (though it’s more complicated than that because you try to weight to take out biases, look up IPS on ons.gov.uk).

So 41000 comes from about 41 responses (probably fewer, no point in explaining). 95% confidence interval very roughly 25000 to 55000. IPS is not designed to analyse links in a trip so my subjective confidence is much lower.

It’s possible the number came from somewhere other than UK IPS but you’ll never get this kind of number reliably at affordable cost.

For what it’s worth, I used to work with this stuff.

Interesting stuff.

I do think though that you could get a lot more traffic if the experience didn’t completely degrade once you get much beyond Lyon/Geneva.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

I have had to wait downstairs when the train had arrived from the depot and was just waiting.

Does no setup (e.g. loading catering supplies) need to be done at St Pancras?

 

[TheWierdOne]

Does no setup (e.g. loading catering supplies) need to be done at St Pancras?

Given that some trains go in and out of St P without going to Temple Mills I imagine they must load catering supplies on the platform, unless they load enough in the depot or stabling location each day to last a whole diagram.

 

[martin2345uk]

They’re loaded before each journey.

 

[MatthewHutton]

Does no setup (e.g. loading catering supplies) need to be done at St Pancras?

Can’t I sit on the train while they do that?

 

[RT4038]

Can’t I sit on the train while they do that?

Perhaps it is the interface on the platform between wandering passengers and mechanically propelled catering replenishment vehicles that they do not want? Plus that the staff welcoming passengers on board would have to be there earlier (which may cost more, or may interfere with breaks from duty after working incoming services?)

 

[ShadowKnight]

Perhaps it is the interface on the platform between wandering passengers and mechanically propelled catering replenishment vehicles that they do not want? Plus that the staff welcoming passengers on board would have to be there earlier (which may cost more, or may interfere with breaks from duty after working incoming services?)

It seems like efficincies can be made here

 

[MatthewHutton]

Perhaps it is the interface on the platform between wandering passengers and mechanically propelled catering replenishment vehicles that they do not want? Plus that the staff welcoming passengers on board would have to be there earlier (which may cost more, or may interfere with breaks from duty after working incoming services?)

I would rather sit on the train for 30 minutes rather than crowded in downstairs and not have the staff welcome me onboard!

And if you had a longer boarding period there would be less of a rush of passengers all at once!

 

[Chester1]

The problem with the summer Marseille train is that the UK departure on a Saturday was too early to be able to get a connecting service even from the south east. Probably if you are running one train it shouldn’t depart London until 9-10am.

The early start is necessary to complete the return journey by a sensible time of night. The route pushed the limited of what can be done in a day with one set. I would love for it to come back. I finally got around to booking it for June 2020....

 

[MatthewHutton]

The early start is necessary to complete the return journey by a sensible time of night. The route pushed the limited of what can be done in a day with one set. I would love for it to come back. I finally got around to booking it for June 2020....

Yeah but then maybe Marseille is too far.

Getting to St Pancras for 6:45am on a Saturday especially is ridiculous. Although quite frankly getting back to London at 10:30pm or 11pm is more manageable in terms of onward service than leaving at 7:15am.

(Also this is really why I like the idea of going to Spain and not Marseille as I suspect that either way to offer a decent service to the south of France you can only do one direction a day - so you may as well get more hours out of the rolling stock)

 

[mad_rich]

Yeah but then maybe Marseille is too far.

Getting to St Pancras for 6:45am on a Saturday especially is ridiculous. Although quite frankly getting back to London at 10:30pm or 11pm is more manageable in terms of onward service than leaving at 7:15am.

(Also this is really why I like the idea of going to Spain and not Marseille as I suspect that either way to offer a decent service to the south of France you can only do one direction a day - so you may as well get more hours out of the rolling stock)

One of the problems of offering long, thin routes like this. You can't please all the passengers (and the operations team!) all of the time.

I'm surprised they haven't brought it back yet. It was popular pre-Covid, filling 4 trains a week in high summer I think. Despite the Lille shuffle.

As it is, via Lille is a decent substitute.

 

[zwk500]

One of the problems of offering long, thin routes like this. You can't please all the passengers (and the operations team!) all of the time.

I'm surprised they haven't brought it back yet. It was popular pre-Covid, filling 4 trains a week in high summer I think. Despite the Lille shuffle.

As it is, via Lille is a decent substitute.

I can't think of any major changes to UK travel, working and residential rights in France that might have taken effect since the service was dropped that might have had an impact on the viability of said service...

 

[FlyingPotato]

One of the problems of offering long, thin routes like this. You can't please all the passengers (and the operations team!) all of the time.

I'm surprised they haven't brought it back yet. It was popular pre-Covid, filling 4 trains a week in high summer I think. Despite the Lille shuffle.

As it is, via Lille is a decent substitute.

While I'd be interested in using a Marseille service and think it should come back in the long term

If they still aren't serving Ebbsfleet or Ashford which saw multiple trains a day, I don't think bringing back Marseille will happen anytime soon

 

[zwk500]

If they still aren't serving Ebbsfleet or Ashford which saw multiple trains a day, I don't think bringing back Marseille will happen anytime soon

I don't see there's a direct link between serving intermediate stations and expanding different destinations. FWIW, I don't think the passenger numbers at Ashford or Ebbsfleet give Eurostar any reason to invest in reopening either station

From a 2023 BBC article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c15q75pylj9o

Eurostar has told the BBC that in the year before the pandemic, 1.4% of its passengers travelled from Ashford and 2.7% travelled from Ebbsfleet, out of a total of 11 million people.

In the 10 years to 2019, passenger growth at St Pancras International increased by 20%, while Ashford and Ebbsfleet saw a 0% growth, the company added.

At peak times, it says there were 50 passengers from Ashford on each 900-seat train.

 

[Bald Rick]

I would love for it to come back. I finally got around to booking it for June 2020....

Me too!

Getting to St Pancras for 6:45am on a Saturday especially is ridiculous.

It really isn’t. Thousands of people make their way to each of Heathrow, Gatiwck, Stansted and Luton for 0445 each Saturday morning.

Re St Pancras, pretty much all of London, and a decent chunk of the south east can get there by 0645 on a Saturday by public transport.

 

[MatthewHutton]

It really isn’t. Thousands of people make their way to each of Heathrow, Gatiwck, Stansted and Luton for 0445 each Saturday morning

There are 24 hour coaches to the airports - and a taxi to the airport is also often cheaper than to central London.

 

[Trainbike46]

There are 24 hour coaches to the airports - and a taxi to the airport is also often cheaper than to central London.

Passengers from London have nightbuses, and the taxi really does depend on where you start.

Sure, the direct Marseille service may have been primarily useful for passengers from London and the surrounding areas, but that doesn't mean it isn't useful.

However, the fact that Eurostar has cancelled the South of France service from Brussels and the Netherlands this summer, which had an average load factor >90% before covid, does suggest they're unlikely to restart the service from London at all.

 

[MatthewHutton]

However, the fact that Eurostar has cancelled the South of France service from Brussels and the Netherlands this summer, which had an average load factor >90% before covid, does suggest they're unlikely to restart the service from London at all.

I believe SNCF scrapped too many TGVs in the covid period and didn’t expect demand to rebound.

 

[Trainbike46]

I believe SNCF scrapped too many TGVs in the covid period and didn’t expect demand to rebound.

None of the Thalys sets, which were historically used for that service, were scrapped though. And Eurostar blue is relatively spacious in rolling stock, so that isn't likely to be the cause of this.

 

[MatthewHutton]

None of the Thalys sets, which were historically used for that service, were scrapped though. And Eurostar blue is relatively spacious in rolling stock, so that isn't likely to be the cause of this.

Well then I would blame SNCFs dislike of everywhere outside of Paris - or their dislike of running trains!

 

[Trainbike46]

Well then I would blame SNCFs dislike of everywhere outside of Paris - or their dislike of running trains!

While SNCF is the largest shareholder in Eurostar, they are separate companies, so unless you have something concrete suggesting that this is due to the SNCF, I would hesitate to blame it on them, rather than Eurostar.