Great Western Railway Heathrow Express Class 387 Refittment and Service Updates

[Horizon22]

I expect the reasons are likely more around politics/contracts, than 4tph being “needed” per se.

Probably likely and can't hurt to get more drivers handling trains in service.

 

[goldenarrow]

I wonder if Heathrow Express can access (from Heathrow Airport) forecast future flight bookings, so can tailor demand accordingly.

The airport does have access to such data but it has been consistently skewed throughout the pandemic as most of the usual algorithms have been shot to pieces and is therefore not a reliable yardstick to solely measure against. The latest trends show spikes (more like pinches) in demand every 3 to 4 days followed by a rapid dip. The announcement of hotel quarantine measures was expected to create a temporary surge in numbers but it got the times of day for peak demand totally wrong.

When HEX first started talking about frequency uplifts, IIRC they were mooting 4th Jan 2021 and have been on a creeping barrage ever since. I don't see any realistic chance of actual demand coming close to warranting a 4tph HEX service until after the May timetable change being most optimistic.

 

[matt_world2004]

The costs wouldn't be that significant if they are already paying the trains and the staff

 

[Horizon22]

The 4tph is expected to start from 22nd Feb - from what I read TfL Rail are therefore terminating at T2/3, running ECS to T4 and coming back out again. This is obviously just while T4 remains closed.

 

[JN114]

From what I read TfL Rail are therefore terminating at T2/3, running ECS to T4 and coming back out again. This is obviously just while T4 remains closed.

I can’t confirm the date given as I don’t think it’s officially publicly announced yet, but otherwise you’re correct, HEx 4tph is not compatible with TfL running through to T5 (at any frequency), at least while HEx is still using only 1 platform at Paddington.

As it’s Heathrow Airport’s infrastructure, they have the final say on who uses it; so that’ll be why TfL are so readily relegated to using T4 when HEx go to 4tph.

It will enable TfL to run 4tph if they so wish as well.

 

[paulravuslante]

I can’t confirm the date given as I don’t think it’s officially publicly announced yet, but otherwise you’re correct, HEx 4tph is not compatible with TfL running through to T5 (at any frequency), at least while HEx is still using only 1 platform at Paddington.

As it’s Heathrow Airport’s infrastructure, they have the final say on who uses it; so that’ll be why TfL are so readily relegated to using T4 when HEx go to 4tph.

It will enable TfL to run 4tph if they so wish as well.

I spotted a poster at West Drayton a few days ago which mentioned 22nd as the start date. I’ve seen posters with earlier start dates since January however

 

[Horizon22]

I spotted a poster at West Drayton a few days ago which mentioned 22nd as the start date. I’ve seen posters with earlier start dates since January however

Yeah I got it similarly from a TfL poster.

 

[Horizon22]

I've heard 4tph has been moved back again to March 1st.

 

[JN114]

I've heard 4tph has been moved back again to March 1st.

Well it didn’t happen on the 22nd of February! More TfL announcing things on the basis of target dates and not waiting for HEx to actually confirm as such, just as it was in January.

I’m sure HEx themselves will make a statement to their customers when there’s actually a firm, confirmed date.

 

[Horizon22]

Well it didn’t happen on the 22nd of February! More TfL announcing things on the basis of target dates and not waiting for HEx to actually confirm as such, just as it was in January.

I’m sure HEx themselves will make a statement to their customers when there’s actually a firm, confirmed date.

I suspect TfL (and perhaps to a lesser extent GWR) are going on whatever HeX tell them is going to happen. Its their paths (and their stations). I'm sure T4 will open in mid-late March after the roadmap announcement.

 

[paulravuslante]

I've heard 4tph has been moved back again to March 1st.

Until further notice I’ve been told. Must’ve been last minute as our diagrams today are still showing as going to T4.

 

[JN114]

Heathrow Express resumed 4 trains per hour as of start of service this morning.

TfL rail services now terminate at Heathrow Central and run ECS to/from Terminal 4 for most of the day.

 

[Horizon22]

They’re “running” 4tph indeed but there’s quite a high level of cancellations. The short turn around at Paddington doesn’t help recovery of the inevitable ETCS faults.