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Heading into autumn - what next?

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Class 33

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It is clear the medical profession is in an utter frenzy to try and force the Government into re-introducing restrictions.

Masks is the main focus, but they are also pushing for a return to social distancing.....

A return to Social distancing nuisancing can bugger right off. That is even more damaging to businesses and people's mental health and wellbeing than that ridiculous face mask wearing nonsense. That drove me mad and really effected my mental health putting up with all that for 16 long months. At times I even felt suicidal. It just dragged on and on and looked like it was never going to end! So glad when it was finally scrapped on 19th July. I would not be able to tolerate if that nonsense was to come back again. Many others will feel the same as me.

Just because cases are rising, why an earth should we be PUNISHED yet again with damaging wreckless restrictions just so we can "Protect the NHS". There is more to this country and to worry about other than "Protecting the NHS"!!!!!
 
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westv

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Not having a go at you but I suspect its from people like you that a lot of these calls for a return to "WFH" are coming from.
I said I'd be happy for it, I didn't say I wanted it to happen.

And having saved a few quid on travel will be of little comfort when the wider economic impact is felt (again that's not a dig at you personally @westv).
A bit more than a few quid lol!
 

joncombe

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The war drums are also beating with the BBC interspersing its coverage with hoards of people calling for "plan B", including someone called Jan who has been in self-imposed lockdown since the pandemic began.

The medical establishment and it's media cheerleaders need to be faced down.
Yes I saw that. It did feel like they'd deliberately picked the terrified that had effectively stayed in lockdown for 2 years already to chip-in.
 

greyman42

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Not having a go at you but I suspect its from people like you that a lot of these calls for a return to "WFH" are coming from.
This is correct. People shouting for restrictions do so knowing that it will lead to WFH. These will be people who could not care less about other people loosing their jobs.

The war drums are also beating with the BBC interspersing its coverage with hoards of people calling for "plan B", including someone called Jan who has been in self-imposed lockdown since the pandemic began.
She can stay in lockdown for the next 20 years for me but why does she want the rest of us to have to suffer it as well?
 

yorksrob

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This is correct. People shouting for restrictions do so knowing that it will lead to WFH. These will be people who could not care less about other people loosing their jobs.


She can stay in lockdown for the next 20 years for me but why does she want the rest of us to have to suffer it as well?

According to the website, its "going above and beyond" the existing regulations.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Just because cases are rising, why an earth should we be PUNISHED yet again with damaging wreckless restrictions just so we can "Protect the NHS". There is more to this country and to worry about other than "Protecting the NHS"!!!!!
We shouldn't but the issue is every bed that gets filled up with a Covid patient blocks 2-3 other patients from being treated due to increased measures on preventing transmission. So this will exacerbate the NHS backlog and ultimately there is an absolute limit to how many patients the NHS can cope with and given what has happened to the NHS on previous waves you can understand how they would want to be cautious. That said I take heart from this statement from SAGE minutes from last week.
Scenarios modelled for the coming winter and into 2022 suggest COVID-19 hospital admissions above the level seen in January 2021 are increasingly unlikely, but there are uncertainties around behaviour change and waning immunity
 

adc82140

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The figure that's never published (I wonder why) is how many people are admitted to hospital daily because they are sick with Covid. All we get is admissions for any reason of people who have tested positive in last 28 days, no matter what the original reason for attending hospital. The higher the daily infection level, the higher the probability of an admission testing positive for an inconsequential virus fragment.

The media would have you believe there are ambulances queuing up outside hospitals waiting to deposit Covid patients. This is not the case. There ARE ambulances stacking up. But this is because there is a logjam getting people discharged to the care sector, which leads to a bed shortage, which leads to full A&E departments. The vast vast majority of these ambulances contain non covid patients.
 

DustyBin

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The figure that's never published (I wonder why) is how many people are admitted to hospital daily because they are sick with Covid. All we get is admissions for any reason of people who have tested positive in last 28 days, no matter what the original reason for attending hospital. The higher the daily infection level, the higher the probability of an admission testing positive for an inconsequential virus fragment.

The media would have you believe there are ambulances queuing up outside hospitals waiting to deposit Covid patients. This is not the case. There ARE ambulances stacking up. But this is because there is a logjam getting people discharged to the care sector, which leads to a bed shortage, which leads to full A&E departments. The vast vast majority of these ambulances contain non covid patients.

I totally agree, we ask this question repeatedly on here but seemingly it never occurs to the public at large or the media!
 

MikeWM

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The media would have you believe there are ambulances queuing up outside hospitals waiting to deposit Covid patients. This is not the case. There ARE ambulances stacking up. But this is because there is a logjam getting people discharged to the care sector, which leads to a bed shortage, which leads to full A&E departments. The vast vast majority of these ambulances contain non covid patients.

Ah, but the Government have a cunning plan to deal with the care sector logjam, by forcing the firing of tens of thousands of care home staff in the next few weeks for not being vaccinated. Clearly that will help immensely.
 

nw1

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I do think someone needs to put the question to those callling for lockdown this winter, "is it going to be the same every winter for the next 5/10 years?" And they need to give an honest answer and not try to wriggle out of it.

Then, people can decide whether the least-worst option is to live with Covid, or to have repeated lockdowns and suffer years of economic hardship which will probably cause more deaths, and certainly a greater sum total of suffering, than without the lockdowns.

Plus, if the vaccines are supposed to protect us, what possible justification is there now for lockdown?
 
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seagull

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Immensely depressing and so predictable that the media and pseudo-scientists/doctors are once again looking to be setting the agenda.

Particularly when, this week, it really seemed that train loadings were getting seriously close to normal in some area - and station car parks starting to fill up properly.

Reintroduction of restrictions is not going to bode well at all for our railways.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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The figure that's never published (I wonder why) is how many people are admitted to hospital daily because they are sick with Covid. All we get is admissions for any reason of people who have tested positive in last 28 days, no matter what the original reason for attending hospital. The higher the daily infection level, the higher the probability of an admission testing positive for an inconsequential virus fragment.

The media would have you believe there are ambulances queuing up outside hospitals waiting to deposit Covid patients. This is not the case. There ARE ambulances stacking up. But this is because there is a logjam getting people discharged to the care sector, which leads to a bed shortage, which leads to full A&E departments. The vast vast majority of these ambulances contain non covid patients.
What is actually published daily on admissions in NHS England is those that were admitted with Covid and those subsequently testing positive later on. These of course could be acquired in hospital (nosocomial) cases as well which is still happening despite much greater measures to suppress unintentional transmission.

Also admission rates in each NHS region are very variable. London, SE E.England are dropping slightly over last 10 days but Midlands, NW and NE have been rising but there are daily swings.

What also isn't reported is the discharges per day but the CO-CIN report published by SAGE shows 1 in 4 admissions remain at less than 24hrs so the issue at hand here over next few weeks is whether the run rate continues to increase or remains at a level that is manageable.
 

brad465

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I do think someone needs to put the question to those callling for lockdown this winter, "is it going to be the same every winter for the next 5/10 years?" And they need to give an honest answer and not try to wriggle out of it.

Then, people can decide whether the least-worst option is to live with Covid, or to have repeated lockdowns and suffer years of economic hardship which will probably cause more deaths, and certainly a greater sum total of suffering, than without the lockdowns.

Plus, if the vaccines are supposed to protect us, what possible justification is there now for lockdown?
Completely agree with this, pity the media are all about "spectacle, not substance".

I feel like we could end much of the panic right now if many of those shouting about restrictions being needed were just offered some ecstasy.
 

Eyersey468

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I do think someone needs to put the question to those callling for lockdown this winter, "is it going to be the same every winter for the next 5/10 years?" And they need to give an honest answer and not try to wriggle out of it.

Then, people can decide whether the least-worst option is to live with Covid, or to have repeated lockdowns and suffer years of economic hardship which will probably cause more deaths, and certainly a greater sum total of suffering, than without the lockdowns.

Plus, if the vaccines are supposed to protect us, what possible justification is there now for lockdown?
I agree
 

yorkie

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Immensely depressing and so predictable that the media and pseudo-scientists/doctors are once again looking to be setting the agenda.
We need to stand firm against far-left authoritarianism. Our society is under threat. I am not prepared to engage in any of their measures; I will resist and I do not consent.

The sort of people who are calling for restrictions the most include socially inept academic type people who never set foot in a pub and who would not be any good at doing any job outside the world of academia. Such people should be ignored.

The likes of Pagel, Michie, Greenhalgh and other attention seekers really need to be ignored.
I do think someone needs to put the question to those callling for lockdown this winter, "is it going to be the same every winter for the next 5/10 years?" And they need to give an honest answer and not try to wriggle out of it.
Some of them will duck the question while others will say it is "just for this year" but of course you just know they will be making the same demands next year. We should ask these people tough questions but they will always try to weasel out of it.

Those who say it is "just for this year" are also effectively admitting that infections that do occur this winter will actually be boosting our population immunity for future years, even if they don't explicitly admit that.
The figure that's never published (I wonder why) is how many people are admitted to hospital daily because they are sick with Covid....
We will probably never get that. It doesn't suit their agenda.
She can stay in lockdown for the next 20 years for me but why does she want the rest of us to have to suffer it as well?
Authoritarianism is very much about imposing misery on others and restricting what others do. Many of the people who call for lockdowns have well proportioned homes and/or gardens, or may have easy access to countryside etc where they can engage in pursuits that they enjoy while poorer/ordinary people are restricted
I'm hardly a Boris fan, but he's correct. And actually, so are you. The vaccine doesn't protect us from transmission; it reduces transmission, but not massively, or at least not as well as it reduces the risk of hospitalisations and deaths.
Vaccines do massively reduce transmission actually, but you are right it is not to the extent to which they prevent severe illness.
 

NorthKent1989

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the narrative is crumbling in my opinion, first vaccines we’re supposed to be our route back to normal oh but now we may have a 4th Lockdown, it’s mad, we simply have to live with Covid and the nhs has to get a grip and do it’s job, how many years will the government continue to milk this for? There’s little justification for another lockdown or further restrictions.

My place of work has the same outlook now, whether they’re jabbed or unjabbed, most of my colleagues including myself have recently had colds and we all agreed to that it felt worse than Covid.

As for a 4th lockdown most of my colleagues have stated they won’t comply and will see family and friends, this is a stark difference from last year, where compliance was high as in 80-90% now it’s 40-50%
 

greyman42

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the narrative is crumbling in my opinion, first vaccines we’re supposed to be our route back to normal oh but now we may have a 4th Lockdown, it’s mad, we simply have to live with Covid and the nhs has to get a grip and do it’s job, how many years will the government continue to milk this for? There’s little justification for another lockdown or further restrictions.

My place of work has the same outlook now, whether they’re jabbed or unjabbed, most of my colleagues including myself have recently had colds and we all agreed to that it felt worse than Covid.

As for a 4th lockdown most of my colleagues have stated they won’t comply and will see family and friends, this is a stark difference from last year, where compliance was high as in 80-90% now it’s 40-50%
I think a fourth lockdown is very unlikely.
 

kez19

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the narrative is crumbling in my opinion, first vaccines we’re supposed to be our route back to normal oh but now we may have a 4th Lockdown, it’s mad, we simply have to live with Covid and the nhs has to get a grip and do it’s job, how many years will the government continue to milk this for? There’s little justification for another lockdown or further restrictions.

My place of work has the same outlook now, whether they’re jabbed or unjabbed, most of my colleagues including myself have recently had colds and we all agreed to that it felt worse than Covid.

As for a 4th lockdown most of my colleagues have stated they won’t comply and will see family and friends, this is a stark difference from last year, where compliance was high as in 80-90% now it’s 40-50%

I’m the same but for me it seems people are finally clicking that after this 3rd one enough is indeed enough and may look for jobs elsewhere (I’m at that point too but I do want to stay in care but this jabbing especially a 3rd one feels indeed a con), but irony of all have we seen the media question this? Of course not they too been cheerleading this on including the lockdowns - I wonder what the media gains out of the cheerleading?

I doubt we will see a BBC Panaroma special or an ITV Tonight programme or Sky related programme either but something will give and as I said before they may well be mouthpieces for governments but give it time the governments will find a way to dispose of them.

I think a fourth lockdown is very unlikely.

I hope you are right but the way the media SAGE ie Ferguson, Devi they seem to want one (oh wait was a few months ago they too had been quoted in media saying no to lockdowns but yet here we are and once more people still trust them as well as the media), like I say why they say one thing flip then flip again without the media scrutiny?
 

brad465

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For all the numerical cases we're recording, this map shows how we're nowhere near the highest in the world for positive rates, a testament to how much our mass testing is contributing to our high case numbers:


1634976207639.png
 

duncanp

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I hope you are right but the way the media SAGE ie Ferguson, Devi they seem to want one (oh wait was a few months ago they too had been quoted in media saying no to lockdowns but yet here we are and once more people still trust them as well as the media), like I say why they say one thing flip then flip again without the media scrutiny?

You cannot have a fourth lockdown (ie. with forced closure of businesses and stay at home orders) without some kind of furlough scheme, or financial assistance for affected businesses and people.

And if there is a fourth lockdown, people will be entitled to ask "er, what exactly was the point of the vaccination program?"

As others have said, public compliance with a fourth lockdown is likely to be much less than in previous lockdowns.

I think the government knows this, which is why they are currently saying that a new lockdown will not be happening.
 

yorksrob

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I suspect that compliance with a fourth lockdown could only be achieved with heavy enforcement, and that wouldn't be a good look for any Government.
 

kez19

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You cannot have a fourth lockdown (ie. with forced closure of businesses and stay at home orders) without some kind of furlough scheme, or financial assistance for affected businesses and people.

And if there is a fourth lockdown, people will be entitled to ask "er, what exactly was the point of the vaccination program?"

As others have said, public compliance with a fourth lockdown is likely to be much less than in previous lockdowns.

I think the government knows this, which is why they are currently saying that a new lockdown will not be happening.

I fully agree here maybe an incentive should be rather than governments pay for it why not the media or the likes of SAGE, I’m sure they could afford to furlough everyone if this is what they wanted.

My opinion here is just an idea since well these are the organisations that bring these experts out that seem to know better (including the media), then in turn they should pay for it

Media and the experts are quick to jump the gun but they don’t care if people get hurt or lose their livelihoods but are happy however to have experts spout what they recommend without the scrutiny.

Or better yet why doesn’t the likes of SAGE or these experts take a cut if they are funded in a way as to help those affected by this? Of course answer would be they wouldn’t and again be classed as opinion but to me it’s their decisions onto governments that cause this and the after effect but would they be responsible? Of course not but blame is squarely at governments (or unless you are Devi Scottish Gov good Westminster bad… another expert who claimed COVID would be eliminated but yet the media give her airtime)
 
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yorkie

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Yes, we do too much testing; for the vast majority of people there really is no concequence to catching Sars-CoV-2, as the vast majority of adults have been vaccinated and it's a very mild illness in children. A natural infection in a vaccinated individual acts as a booster providing an even broader immune memory because exposure to other parts of the virus (not just spike) gives the body even better immunity for future infections.

Those who chose not to get vaccinated are going to have to build up immunity through natural infection and some of them are going to get very ill; they've made their choice and there is nothing that can really be done about that. Elderly people can and do die of respiratory viruses against which they already have some immunity, and the numbers this year are not actually worse than a bad 'flu year, and will reduce in time as our immunity increases.

Any measures imposed now will just kick the can down the road for next winter.

There will not be a 4th lockdown, there is no chance of that. But the worry is that other measures will be imposed and there is sustained pressure from far left authoritarians for measures such as mandatory face coverings to be reintroduced. I do not think the general public will adhere to such measures. I have no intention of pandering to authoritarians and I know many others feel the same. We need to collectively say we do not consent, enough is enough, and continue to live our lives as normal as much as we can. I see the authoritarians who are shouting loudly right now as enemies of society. If any of them want an argument with me, they will certainly get one.
 

Class 33

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I really think another lockdown is highly highly unlikely now, especially given the furlough scheme has at long last finished. So don't worry about that. What I am worried about though is the government going ahead with this "Plan B" nonsense and these bloody DREADFUL mandatory face mask laws to be reimposed again. If so I expect this would drag on for MONTHS again, I doubt it would be just for a month or two. I can't be doing with all that again, and nor can many many other people. Please god NO, this can NOT happen!
 
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yorkie

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I really think another lockdown is highly highly unlikely now, especially given the furlough scheme has at long last finished. So don't worry about that. What I am worried about though is the government going ahead with this "Plan B" nonsense and these bloody DREADFUL mandatory face mask laws to be reimposed again. I can't be doing with all that again, and nor can many many other people.
I am sure there are many people who have had enough and have stopped wearing face coverings and will never wear them again.

There is no way anyone can be forced to wear one; anyone can self-declare an exemption and most people are by now well aware that anyone who needs to be vaccinated has had the option to be vaccinated for some time and anyone who needs additional protection can obtain highly effective FFP3 masks and we now know that flimsy, loose fitting masks are not designed to filter aerosols, and therefore do not protect anyone (the wearer or others) from virus transmission.

The argument that "vulnerable people, who are not quite as well protected by vaccines as others, need healthy people to wear flimsy loose fitting masks because they are unable to wear effective FFP3 asks" holds no water whatsoever.

We can also see that Wales still has compulsory masks, and other authoritarian measures imposed by tinpot dictator Drakeford, yet they have some of the highest case rates in the world.

It's game over for mandatory masks; mass mask wearing requires the majority to wear them and that is never going to happen in England again as the cat is out of the bag now.
 

Watershed

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Scotland and Wales have introduced their own 'plan B' some months ago. Yet there is no evidence to suggest they have fared any better than England. This is a very significant point, which is conveniently ignored by the vocal minority pushing for the reintroduction of restrictions.

The NHS is under strain every winter. And a small percentage of patients will die, or not receive the care they need, as a result. That is very unfortunate - but we cannot and must not change our lives to accommodate it.
 

island

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I am growing increasingly frustrated with views expressed by my friends and on other social media (not, for the avoidance of doubt, this forum) inviting yet more burdensome restrictions and non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Any restrictions that must now be imposed must be temporary and must have clear, rational, and independently verifiable conditions for their removal.
I do think someone needs to put the question to those callling for lockdown this winter, "is it going to be the same every winter for the next 5/10 years?" And they need to give an honest answer and not try to wriggle out of it.
Yes. The winter period has stretched the health service since time immemorial.
Then, people can decide whether the least-worst option is to live with Covid, or to have repeated lockdowns and suffer years of economic hardship which will probably cause more deaths, and certainly a greater sum total of suffering, than without the lockdowns.
Indeed. We cannot sacrifice what's left of the economy on the altar of the NHS.
Plus, if the vaccines are supposed to protect us, what possible justification is there now for lockdown?
A great many people should be asking that.
You cannot have a fourth lockdown (ie. with forced closure of businesses and stay at home orders) without some kind of furlough scheme, or financial assistance for affected businesses and people.
Indeed. With the exception of work-from-home instructions, any measures not involving shutting businesses will be ineffective. Mask rules have just about never been enforced unless someone catastrophically failed the attitude test, and towards the end of February and start of March when full lockdown was in place, it was honoured only in the exception.
And if there is a fourth lockdown, people will be entitled to ask "er, what exactly was the point of the vaccination program?"

As others have said, public compliance with a fourth lockdown is likely to be much less than in previous lockdowns.

I think the government knows this, which is why they are currently saying that a new lockdown will not be happening.
I agree. Whilst I have in the past said (correctly) that mass civil disobedience would not be a response in England to the restrictions, I am less sure that this would hold in the future. The English public have for the most part been docile and submissive, but this was on the promise that vaccines would fix everything. If we are now being told they won't, the appetite for and acceptance of what was meant to be temporary measures will dwindle. The British public are not like Twitter and most people now just want to get on with their lives.
Any measures imposed now will just kick the can down the road for next winter.
Indeed. Groundhog Day, anyone?
 

nw1

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For all the numerical cases we're recording, this map shows how we're nowhere near the highest in the world for positive rates, a testament to how much our mass testing is contributing to our high case numbers:


View attachment 104479

Interesting how the countries that seem to be most 'panicked' (UK, France, Australia, NZ) are amongst the lower (various shades of blue...)

We need to stand firm against far-left authoritarianism. Our society is under threat. I am not prepared to engage in any of their measures; I will resist and I do not consent.
It is strange how certain elements of the left are signing up to authoritarianism. Why, I am not sure - it's not going to help them politically. Conservatives and Labour. The Brexit Party vs the Lockdown Party. To be honest I think both have had their day, and the UK would be better off if both just disappeared into history.
Some of them will duck the question while others will say it is "just for this year" but of course you just know they will be making the same demands next year. We should ask these people tough questions but they will always try to weasel out of it.
And they said that last year too.

Another risk is if they have a lockdown this year, it will normalise lockdowns for other non-Covid reasons. What if we have a bad flu season, like 1999? Will they call for lockdowns to 'relieve pressure' in those instances?

But I do think lockdown is unlikely; as I said before the main reason is that another lockdown will finish off 'Boris' politically.
 
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