I wonder just how long the plan is to keep 153s on the HOW?
When the original TFW 15 year franchise started October 2018 it was said the 170s were to be the only 'old' units to be kept for the entire franchise until 2033 and used on HOW/West Wales/Crewe local etc. Clearly that has changed but surely the 153s cant last another 12 years? They are already around 35 years old. Personally i hated the 153s before ATW gave them a decent refurbishment around a decade ago then they were great units for lines such as HOW and Pembroke Dock. I also like the TFW refurbished sets although less seats it wont be a problem if all sets are doubled up on HOW.
I would prefer TFW to keep a small fleet of 175s (maybe the 2 car sets) for use on HOW/Crewe local and they could cover on any West Wales/Marches services for the 197s like the 150s cover for 175 now.
Several changes have happened since the original Franchise plan and I don't think anything has been publicly released as to the new plan, so everything for now is an assumption. Extra MK4's will displace 197s so I wouldn't be surprised to see them in West Wales and Crewe locals, with a possibility of them covering the HOWL too.
What that does in terms of fleet numbers, I'm not sure. Again it can be assumed that the 5 MK4's will release 5 197s, but i'm not sure that will be enough to cover all of the above. Excluding HOWL, maybe the life of the 153's extended until they probably die! Or maybe a small top up order of 197's.
I hope TfW don't introduce another fleet type and the 197's work on all routes. 197's are already testing on Conwy, which 158's and 175's are cleared for. So one can assume the 197's is compatible with most routes. I sincerely hope someone has done their research this time as whoever planned for the 170's to work down west really didn't do their homework!
I really can't see the 175's staying. Alstom do the maintenance on them currently who will be transferring to CAF. Yes they could continue to do the maintenance but to keep a small sub fleet in a relatively small Depot i don't think is viable. There would no doubt be some kind of complications with contracts, parts, space etc etc by keeping them up North. And the cost of keeping them would probably be negated by buying more 197's.
Keeping the 158's and using them in the South and West Wales and the 158's being maintained on Canton as they already are (Albeit on a small scale), would probably be more sensible from a maintenance point of view, but again that's all speculation and the 158's are ageing too. Thus freeing up 197's to work HOWL. I often wonder if Landore could be utilised for a small fleet in West Wales, as well as stabling/maintenance for Mk4's.