Holyhead-Cardiff - how successful?

[Philip]

It's about 17 years since the politically motivated two-hourly Holyhead-Cardiff service was introduced by ATW, under pressure from the WAG, with the compromise at the time being the hourly Crewe-Holyhead becoming two-hourly and the removal of all Birmingham-Holyhead via Crewe services.

Has this service been a success over the years or is it still something to satisfy the politicians? Putting the political aspect to one side, would it be better to divide this through service into two or three separate services more similar to how it was before 2006, with one through service each way per day? So hourly Holyhead-Crewe, hourly Chester-Birmingham via Wrexham, hourly Shrewsbury-Cardiff all stops alongside the faster Manchester service?

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Interesting question.

What is perhaps more important to ask, is how often should trains leave Holyhead towards Chester? Is it okay to be hourly, with the odd extra (e.g. Avanti) chucked in for good measure?

If that's the case, should everything go to Crewe, with the intention of people connecting to Manchester at either Chester or Crewe, Cardiff at Chester or Crewe, and so on?

The likelihood of the data being available is very low to support whatever hypothesis, but for certain releasing all the LHCS to do Manchester runs would surely be better?

Perhaps, what is needed, is:
- Hourly Manchester to Cardiff (and beyond) via Crewe and Salop.
- Hourly Liverpool to Cardiff via Chester and Salop.
- Hourly Llandudno to Manchester via Chester and either Altrincham or Newton le Willows.
- Hourly Holyhead to Crewe.
- Two-hourly shuttle from Holyhead to Llandudno via local stops.
- Overlay Avanti where appropriate, perhaps only at boat times.

 

[Dr Day]

TFW December 2023 Timetable changes

Hi all, May seem a long time away, but TfW have advertised what they propose to run and what units are allocated to which trains... https://tfw.wales/draft-timetables-2023

www.railforums.co.uk

The timetable links are no longer on the TfW web site, but their committed plans IIRC (I'm more interested in S Wales) are broadly 1 tph Liverpool-Llandudno/Cardiff (splitting at Chester), 1 tph Bangor Manchester and 1 tph Birmingham/Cardiff-Holyhead. Plus 2 hourly Avanti Euston-Holyhead, the Crewe-Chester shuttle and 1 tph Cardiff-Crewe-Manchester. and locals Shrewsbury-Crewe.

The likelihood of the data being available is very low to support whatever hypothesis,

Yes, detailed station-station ticket sales data isn't in the public domain (although possibly could be for journeys maybe not revenue if someone asked an FOI) , but the planners at TfW/Avanti/WG/DfT do know so one would have thought the above plans are what they figured was the optimal service pattern for the subsidy they could get?

 

[6Gman]

It's about 17 years since the politically motivated two-hourly Holyhead-Cardiff service was introduced by ATW, under pressure from the WAG, with the compromise at the time being the hourly Crewe-Holyhead becoming two-hourly and the removal of all Birmingham-Holyhead via Crewe services.

Has this service been a success over the years or is it still something to satisfy the politicians (1)? Putting the political aspect to one side, would it be better to divide this through service into two or three separate services more similar to how it was before 2006 (2), with one through service each way per day? So hourly Holyhead-Crewe, hourly Chester-Birmingham via Wrexham, hourly Shrewsbury-Cardiff all stops alongside the faster Manchester service (3)?

1 Not really, yes (largely).
2 Yes.
3 Yes, broadly.

 

[emoaconr]

Completely oppose absurd suggestions to curtail this service. Firmly support Welsh Govt's position on the operation of the franchise.

 

[Philip]

Completely oppose absurd suggestions to curtail this service. Firmly support Welsh Govt's position on the operation of the franchise.

It was initially introduced for political reasons and wasn't well used end to end for the first few years at least.

Bangor-Chester, Shrewsbury-Cardiff and Chester-Shrewsbury may all be busy flows, but these could all be served by more useful separate services with better onward connections, such as North Wales-Crewe; Cardiff-Liverpool via Crewe; and Chester to Birmingham via Wrexham.

 

[markymark2000]

From my experience, the flows seem to be Cardiff as far as Chester. Flows to the North Wales Coast don't seem to start until around Hereford.

All this being said, the Marshes has a LOT of passengers travelling from north of Shrewsbury to go to Bristol and beyond to stations in Devon and Cornwall. It must be cheaper than going via Birmingham. Not sure where all the flows come from but the amount of conversations that I have overheard about people travelling this way is bonkers.

 

[emoaconr]

It was initially introduced for political reasons and wasn't well used end to end for the first few years at least.

Bangor-Chester, Shrewsbury-Cardiff and Chester-Shrewsbury may all be busy flows, but these could all be served by more useful separate services with better onward connections, such as North Wales-Crewe; Cardiff-Liverpool via Crewe; and Chester to Birmingham via Wrexham.

I agree with those political reasons.

 

[30907]

I wonder if the end-to-end flow might be better served by the 3tpd Mk4 services, running fast Shrewsbury-Hereford-Newport. The base service via Wrexham would then be N Wales/Chester-Birmingham and Liverpool-Cardiff.
The disadvantage is that it would be challenging to timetable the fast service.

 

[irish_rail]

From my experience, the flows seem to be Cardiff as far as Chester. Flows to the North Wales Coast don't seem to start until around Hereford.

All this being said, the Marshes has a LOT of passengers travelling from north of Shrewsbury to go to Bristol and beyond to stations in Devon and Cornwall. It must be cheaper than going via Birmingham. Not sure where all the flows come from but the amount of conversations that I have overheard about people travelling this way is bonkers.

Would be nice to have some kind of Plymouth to Chester or Liverpool via the Marches route, though I guess impossible on todays fragmented railway.

 

[The Planner]

Would be nice to have some kind of Plymouth to Chester or Liverpool via the Marches route, though I guess impossible on todays fragmented railway.

You could open access it providing you did Ryanair-esque station stops such as avoiding Newport etc.

 

[irish_rail]

You could open access it providing you did Ryanair-esque station stops such as avoiding Newport etc.

It would certainly give XC a kick in the backside and provide an alternative to a 5 car voyager from the south west and having to change at New St with a 5 minute connection to get to North west. Maybe if Ian Yeowart is reading? Haha

 

[The Prisoner]

From my experience, the flows seem to be Cardiff as far as Chester. Flows to the North Wales Coast don't seem to start until around Hereford.

All this being said, the Marshes has a LOT of passengers travelling from north of Shrewsbury to go to Bristol and beyond to stations in Devon and Cornwall. It must be cheaper than going via Birmingham. Not sure where all the flows come from but the amount of conversations that I have overheard about people travelling this way is bonkers.

Decent advance fares are available from Chester to Devon/Cornwall via TfW and GWR connecting at Newport and it's one just change. Nothing available via Brum and XC at less than an eye watering three figure price.

 

[irish_rail]

Decent advance fares are available from Chester to Devon/Cornwall via TfW and GWR connecting at Newport and it's one just change. Nothing available via Brum and XC at less than an eye watering three figure price.

Trouble is Newport to Devon and Cornwall direct is incredibly slow as they are stoppers. Its nearly 3 hours to Plymouth from Newport. Something limited stop would be desirable, say Plymouth, Newton, Exeter, Taunton, Bristol, Newport, Abergavenny, Hereford, Shrewsbury, then either Chester, or alternatively Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool. That would provide a bit of genuine competition with XC especially if cheaper. Although I admit zero chance of it ever happening....

 

[markymark2000]

Decent advance fares are available from Chester to Devon/Cornwall via TfW and GWR connecting at Newport and it's one just change. Nothing available via Brum and XC at less than an eye watering three figure price.

£40 basic fare is quite good for that journey. I wasn't expecting it to be that cheap. I do wonder if this will remain the case in May when Cross Country bring back their Manchester to Bristol service all day, if they do some nice fares on that, that may encourage some people over. I can't speak for everyone but plodding along the Marches is not the most pleasant experience. Stopping every 10 minutes and endless delays mean I think more people miss their connections in Newport than actually make them (since despite this being a busy connection between these specific services, trains aren't held even for a minutes like they would be for other lines).

 

[Mcr Warrior]

I can't speak for everyone but plodding along the Marshes Marches is not the most pleasant experience.

You can't. It's not the worst middle-distance journey on the GB network, by any means.

 

[The Prisoner]

£40 basic fare is quite good for that journey. I wasn't expecting it to be that cheap. I do wonder if this will remain the case in May when Cross Country bring back their Manchester to Bristol service all day, if they do some nice fares on that, that may encourage some people over. I can't speak for everyone but plodding along the Marches is not the most pleasant experience. Stopping every 10 minutes and endless delays mean I think more people miss their connections in Newport than actually make them (since despite this being a busy connection between these specific services, trains aren't held even for a minutes like they would be for other lines).

If everything worked (big if) there is no great time difference between a TfW/GWR trip via the Marches vs the "quicker" XC/Avanti/LNWR journey via BHM - 7h 28 quickest from Chester to St Erth 8am onwards on a weekday via XC vs 7h 43 quickest via TfW/GWR, and the XC journey is £214.30 before 0930 (!) and £192.30 "off peak" (why do that to an average 8 hour journey!) - £96.50 anytime via Newport. Have always avoided XC like the plague as their lack of capacity = no reasonable priced tickets.

Unfortunately it's nearly as quick, and often cheaper, to head Chester - London - St Erth....certainly more comfortable.

 

[adrock1976]

On my previous visits to Wales, my observations were as follows (albeit unscientific as it was only a few visits):

North Wales - I have never met any passengers who are travelling to Newport (Gwent), Cardiff, or Swansea/Abertawe by train especially from Holyhead/Bangor (Gwynedd)/Llandudno, but I have met passengers who are travelling to Liverpool, Manchester, North West Region, West Midlands, and London.

Cambrian (Aberystwyth/Pwllheli) - I have never met any passengers who are travelling by train to Llandudno, Bangor (Gwynedd), Holyhead, Newport (Gwent), Cardiff, or Swansea/Abertawe, but have met passengers who are travelling to North West Region, West Midlands, and London.

South Wales - I have never met any passengers who are travelling by train to Holyhead, Bangor (Gwynedd), or Llandudno, but I have met passengers who are travelling to the West Midlands, the West Country, Berkshire, and London.

All of the above observations do reflect the railway geography of Wales. For those who are travelling Holyhead - Cardiff, it is a much shorter route by road.

I have mentioned this a while ago in one of the various Wales specific threads that post HS2, I suggested the following service pattern below:

1) Liverpool Lime Street - Llandudno via Halton Curve every 60 minutes, calling South Parkway, Runcorn, then all stations

2) Manchester Vic - Bangor (Gwynedd) (also Caernarfon if ever the track is relaid) via Warrington Bank Quay every 60 minutes, calling Newton-le-Willows, Earlestown, Warrington BQ, Frodsham, Helsby (for Merseyrail interchange), and all stations to Bangor/Caernarfon.

3) Crewe - Holyhead every 60 minutes, calling Chester, either Fflint and Rhyl, or Prestatyn and Colwyn Bay every second hour alternating between those pairs, Llandudno Junction, Conwy, Bangor, Llanfair PG, Bodorgan, Ty Cross, Rhosneigr, Valley, and Holyhead.

4) Amlwch - Llandudno every 120 minutes, calling all stations.

5) London Euston - Chester every 60 minutes, with alternate trains extending to Holyhead.

 

[danm14]

5) London Euston - Chester every 60 minutes, with alternate trains extending to Holyhead.

Ideally, rather than strictly alternate trains, those which connect with ferries to and from Dublin.

The current train times aren't very satisfactory for ferry passengers - especially in the eastbound direction, where only one of the five direct trains (12:46) connects with a ferry arrival, and one (05:49) leaves in perfect time for ferry passengers to watch it leave without them.

 

[berneyarms]

Ideally, rather than strictly alternate trains, those which connect with ferries to and from Dublin.

The current train times aren't very satisfactory for ferry passengers - especially in the eastbound direction, where only one of the five direct trains (12:46) connects with a ferry arrival, and one (05:49) leaves in perfect time for ferry passengers to watch it leave without them.

But there is an 06:49 Avanti service which does connect with that ferry arrival, allowing for a potential late ferry arrival and more importantly the bus transfer from ferry to terminal.