"HS2 Back on Track" - front page of Sunday Express - private sector plan to build Birmingham to Manchester

[Tezza1978]

Axed HS2 could be brought back to life as secret talks take place to revive rail link​

Rival mayors Andy Street and Andy Burnham team up to breathe new life into scrapped project between Birmingham and Manchester​

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1858019/HS2-revived-private-finance

Interesting. Clearly more to this than most thought. Seems even more odd that the safeguarding was lifted if Harper was aware that this was on the table /due to be discussed.

Good news if truth in this.....

 

[MrJeeves]

While it sounds interesting, it still means convincing an anti-rail government to partially fund something that will probably result in a greater long term cost to the taxpayer in fare subsidies and whatnot...

Better than nothing if it goes well, I suppose.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I hope this is not fake news.

 

[Energy]

Seems even more odd that the safeguarding was lifted if Harper was aware that this was on the table /due to be discussed.

Some important parts of the Phase 2a bill

1.Power to construct and maintain works for Phase 2a of High Speed 2


(1)The nominated undertaker may construct and maintain the works specified in Schedule 1, being—

(a)works for the construction of a railway between—

(i)a junction with Phase One of High Speed 2 near Fradley Wood in Staffordshire, and

(ii)a junction with the West Coast Main Line near Crewe in Cheshire,

The bill does not specifically give powers to HS2 Ltd but to the nominated undertaker. This is currently HS2 Ltd but can change.

41.Nominated undertaker


(1)The Secretary of State may by regulations—

(a)appoint a person specified in the regulations as the nominated undertaker for such purposes of such provisions of this Act as may be so specified;

The powers to build HS2 2a can be transferred by the Secretary of State for Transport without Parliament time (good since it would be unlikely to get it). It also doesn't require the prime minister to do anything, they appoint the Secretary of State so it still needs their informal blessing. Privately funding parts of HS2 fits in with Rishi's public narrative so I doubt he'd object.

Rishi's plan to privately finance and build HS2 Euston without HS2 Ltd's involvement is more complicated since the nominated undertaker for phase 1 is the same nominated undertaker for Euston. It seems more likely that HS2 Euston will be privately funded but the work is still done by HS2 Ltd.




What I'm concerned about is ownership, HS1's ownership reverts to the government after the end of the current concession. Since the government backed the HS1 bonds it already had these bonds as liabilities; so when it transferred the LCR finance subsidiaries that had the debt to government ownership, the government's liabilities did not change. Then the government could acquire LCR for a nominal fee via the 'golden share' it had in LCR in exchange for backing the bonds.


Diagram of how I understand HS1's ownership

Interestingly LCR remains operational today and redevelops railway land.

With private HS2, government-backed bonds seem unlikely as the government would still have the liabilities, which I doubt the current government would accept. Private HS2 can be entirely funded by a private entity which would keep it entirely off government books but it would never enter government ownership unless a future government purchased it, likely at a higher price.

 

[class26]

I hope this is not fake news.

I also but I wouldn`t believe that much printed in the Express , the key word is "COULD be brought back to life"

 

[Arkeeos]

Provided the act of Parliament is passed, which it already is, I presume it can be built by any means necessary.

Also, if the northern mayors agree to keep the phase 2b tunnel and stations it will effectively subsidise any construction of phase 2b.

Does anyone know exactly when that decision is going to be taken by them?

Whether or not it will be successful is another question, but if it can keep HS2 relevant and possible for a while longer then it’s worth it.

 

[The exile]

Interesting. Clearly more to this than most thought. Seems even more odd that the safeguarding was lifted if Harper was aware that this was on the table /due to be discussed.

Good news if truth in this.....

Or indeed it suggests a precise reason why the safeguarding was lifted….

 

[AndrewE]

My suspicious mind says tha the Tories have realised how badly they shot themselves in the foot with the cancellation of phase 2a (the cheapest and arguably the most important bit for decarbonising freight transport.) Hence an unattributable article in a party mouthpiece attempting to keep their chances alive with voters who either a) understand the rail reality, or b) are basically green, or c) are annoyed that it's just the SE that gains from phase 1a by relieving the current south end of the WCML for more semi-fast and stopping services.

 

[nlogax]

This story has been making the rounds for days. Beyond Street and Burnham"s meeting with Mark Harper it feels as though there's little else to go on. I want to believe..but I'll wait for concrete news and not via the Express.

 

[Whistler40145]

I hope this is not fake news.

Thankfully, it's not April Fools Day

 

[Peter Sarf]

So the private sector could get the cheap cherry on the top (Phase 2a).

The cherry providing a significant up lift in usable HS2 capacity.

 

[class26]

This story has been making the rounds for days. Beyond Street and Burnham"s meeting with Mark Harper it feels as though there's little else to go on. I want to believe..but I'll wait for concrete news and not via the Express.

There is more going on, Arup are producing a report, the first part will be presented to government in March apparently, the final version before the summer.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Maybe this article in the Independent is a better read:

Mayors in talks to bring HS2’s northern leg back to life

Tory Andy Street and Labour’s Andy Burnham to discuss private sector plan to pay for project with transport secretary

www.independent.co.uk

“The mayors of the two regions are leading this but to be clear, with government support,” said the popular Tory mayor. “By inviting the private sector in to play the maximum possible role, it can be significantly less costly for the public exchequer.”
The northern section replacement project is being overseen by Sir David Higgins, the former chairman of HS2, now chairman of Gatwick Airport.

Train operating companies would reportedly meet the initial costs of a new line, but some input from the taxpayer would still be required.
Leading engineering giants Arup and Mace Engineering are at the forefront of discussions aimed at getting private finance to rescue the Birmingham to Manchester link.
The rail link could connect the end of the HS2 line in Handsacre in Staffordshire, just north of Birmingham, with Stockport, which is set to be the final stop on a high-speed network
However, with the government ending “safeguarding” of land on the axed HS2 route, there is a race to progress with the project.
The idea of reviving the northern leg could prove controversial among some Tory MPs who fought against the impact on their constituencies.

Sir Keir Starmer has spoked to Mr Burnham about ways to boost rail connectivity in the north – but he has warned it would not be possible to bring back the original taxpayer-fund northern leg.
The Labour leader told the BBC earlier this month that he “can’t stand here and commit to reversing” the government’s decision, adding: “Contracts are going to be cancelled.”
Mr Sunak announced in October said the government would re-invest £36bn from the HS2 project in a series of road and rail schemes across the country.
Andrew McNaughton, HS2’s former technical director, said Mr Sunak had created a “growth reduction scheme” by axing the route. He said the “whole strategy for connecting the north and south of England was HS2”.
“Any other plans were all predicated on HS2 creating the new capacity either directly or indirectly for the next 100 years,” he said.

I doubt Sunak will change his mind in the time he has left, but a lower cost semi-private scheme might be where Starmer picks it up and runs with it.
Some of the Phase 2a/b costs (eg the infrastructure depot at Stone, and rolling stock depot north of Crewe) could be removed from the project, as well as maybe the tunnel at Crewe.

I also doubt the private funding will come from TOCs - it will be from contractors as happened with the latest LGV lines in France (and the Channel Tunnel).
Remember also George Osborne expected to have external (Chinese) investment in the original scheme.

 

[nlogax]

There is more going on, Arup are producing a report, the first part will be presented to government in March apparently, the final version before the summer.

Thanks, and I understand the report will be supporting Street and Burnham's case but it's still all going to be put in front of Mark Harper who is between a rock and a hard place with HS2. He evidently wanted phase 2 but Sunak obviously isn't or wasn't so keen.

If re-enabling phase 2 through a private funding mechanism will help narrow the gap between Conservative and Labour ahead of the upcoming GE then he may be game but I don't believe HS2 is anywhere near the top of voters' considerations.

 

[Greybeard33]

Maybe this article in the Independent is a better read:

The Independent story contains an acknowledgement that it is based on the Express story:

Mr Street told the Daily Express that a new high-speed scheme, or major upgrades to the existing rail connection in the north, could be mostly paid for by the private sector.
“The mayors of the two regions are leading this but to be clear, with government support,” said the popular Tory mayor. “By inviting the private sector in to play the maximum possible role, it can be significantly less costly for the public exchequer.”

 

[Deepgreen]

I also but I wouldn`t believe that much printed in the Express , the key word is "COULD be brought back to life"

Exactly - I wouldn't trust that rag. How, too, is the private sector supposed to foot the gigantic bill without any public payback at some point? Railways are not profit-making - a well-established situation - and the enormous costs here would surely involve huge losses on private businesses' books.

 

[class26]

Thanks, and I understand the report will be supporting Street and Burnham's case but it's still all going to be put in front of Mark Harper who is between a rock and a hard place with HS2. He evidently wanted phase 2 but Sunak obviously isn't or wasn't so keen.

If re-enabling phase 2 through a private funding mechanism will help narrow the gap between Conservative and Labour ahead of the upcoming GE then he may be game but I don't believe HS2 is anywhere near the top of voters' considerations.

The report was commissioned by Street and Burnham who have approval from Sunak that he would CONSIDER it.

 

[The Planner]

Maybe this article in the Independent is a better read:

Mayors in talks to bring HS2’s northern leg back to life

Tory Andy Street and Labour’s Andy Burnham to discuss private sector plan to pay for project with transport secretary

www.independent.co.uk

I doubt Sunak will change his mind in the time he has left, but a lower cost semi-private scheme might be where Starmer picks it up and runs with it.
Some of the Phase 2a/b costs (eg the infrastructure depot at Stone, and rolling stock depot north of Crewe) could be removed from the project, as well as maybe the tunnel at Crewe.

I also doubt the private funding will come from TOCs - it will be from contractors as happened with the latest LGV lines in France (and the Channel Tunnel).
Remember also George Osborne expected to have external (Chinese) investment in the original scheme.

Can't see them binning Stone, they will struggle to get any materials in otherwise. It may end up as a temporary construction depot.

 

[class26]

Exactly - I wouldn't trust that rag. How, too, is the private sector supposed to foot the gigantic bill without any public payback at some point? Railways are not profit-making - a well-established situation - and the enormous costs here would surely involve huge losses on private businesses' books.

presumably the private sector would get money back through fees for its use as with M6 toll or HS1 ?

 

[Kingham West]

The report was commissioned by Street and Burnham who have approval from Sunak that he would CONSIDER it

Presumably , a de scoped 140mph , Stafford by-pass , will deliver most of the benefits at a realistic cost.

 

[Snow1964]

The fact that private finance used in Hong Kong and France has been studied, and the fact that proposing to end south of Stockport should limit the cost.

I suspect there is some transfer of funding, (what would need to be spent if ends at Handsacre), to help balance the books. Think we will need to carefully watch the wording for net extra funding.

But overall, I hope it can be met to work.

 

[ABB125]

Presumably , a de scoped 140mph , Stafford by-pass , will deliver most of the benefits at a realistic cost.

Design speed has very little impact on the final cost, so it would be incredibly penny-pinching to not build for at least 200mph.
Especially as the 250mph alignment has already been designed, and is (pretty much) "shovel-ready"...

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

Handsacre to Stockport? Presumably this means Phase 2a to Crewe and then the existing Crewe to Manchester line, or is it a new route cutting out the Airport?

 

[Topological]

Is Stockport some way of saying NPR? Since it would not mean much to people to name any actual small places near Manchester where the two would interface. Manchester Airport as the northern end might be more accurate but would send the wrong message.

It would be great if it happens, but I am not expecting anything to come from the plans.

 

[eldomtom2]

I'll repeat what I said in another thread: the big question is how much is the "private sector" willing to put up, and what do they expect to get out of it? I highly doubt that it could be funded entirely by private investment without a fair bit of government support...

 

[HSTEd]

Cynically, I expect is this is a bunch of people expecting they will be able to get the government to agree to pay for an enormously lucrative PFI.

I very much doubt they will ever be able to get the tens of billions of capital necessary to actually build anything that will make a major difference without huge wads of taxpayer cash being dumped on them.

EDIT:

If they are going to "Stockport", requiring a total redesign of the line in any case, there is always the possibility of jettisoning the existing Phase 2 route entirely and just proceeding directly from Handsacre to somewhere near Hazel Grove or Poynton. That would cut a lot of distance off the route, indeed Poynton is only about 10-15km further away than Crewe is......

 

[nlogax]

Cynically, I expect is this is a bunch of people expecting they will be able to get the government to agree to pay for an enormously lucrative PFI.

This does have the tang of 'PFI waiting to hqppen' all over it.

 

[Whistler40145]

This does have the tang of 'PFI waiting to hqppen' all over it.

It does look like it

 

[och aye]

Grant Shapps has said this.

If HS2 Phase 2A is revived in some form as a new "low cost" project, a cynic might say this might be just in time for an election that is due to happen at some point this year...

Well let's see what happens. Credit to Andy Street and Andy Burnham for at least trying to get some form of HS2 link between Birmingham to Manchester.

HS2 Manchester leg not going to happen, says Shapps after reports of secret talks

Grant Shapps said the metro mayors' plan to revive the northern leg of HS2 'isn't likely to happen'

inews.co.uk

But Mr Shapps, the Defence Secretary, dismissed the reports on Sunday, insisting that “the decision has been made and the money is being spent elsewhere”.

“I think it’s something like £36bn and that will pay for a lot of infrastructure transport projects around the North so people see the benefit much more quickly than if that leg was being completed,” he told ITV News.

“So, I’m afraid I fear that from their point of view, they’re raising a prospect which isn’t likely to happen.”

 

[Tezza1978]

Grant Shapps has said this.

If HS2 Phase 2A is revived in some form as a new "low cost" project, a cynic might say this might be just in time for an election that is due to happen at some point this year...

Well let's see what happens. Credit to Andy Street and Andy Burnham for at least trying to get some form of HS2 link between Birmingham to Manchester.

HS2 Manchester leg not going to happen, says Shapps after reports of secret talks

Grant Shapps said the metro mayors' plan to revive the northern leg of HS2 'isn't likely to happen'

inews.co.uk

Yep agree that what Street and Burnham are doing is good. I wouldnt put too much store by what Shapps says.

A revived 2A if funded in part by the private sector will be called something completely different for political reasons so Shapps/Harper/Sunak can clearly say HS2 phase 2 is dead without lying if 2 very similar schemes replace it....

I suspect that if something is put on the table and is at least considered by Sunak then the land sales will fail to happen (can't see them happening anyway given the upcoming election, the campaign will realistically start in at most 8 months time) . Starmer would likely back a private sector 2a replacement as he has already backed NPR