"HS2 Back on Track" - front page of Sunday Express - private sector plan to build Birmingham to Manchester

[Krokodil]

I do not understand the obsession with building a branch of HS2 as far as Greater Manchester.

Something has to be done, the existing infrastructure is full.

 

[NotATrainspott]

It will be some time (when?) before HS2 is planned to reach Handsacre. There is time (not unlimited though!) to (re)consider how best to link from there to Manchester (and Liverpool, Leeds, Warringon, Wigan, N.Wales, Scotland, etc).

Some questions to (re)address? How many (if any?) passengers using HS2 for the southerly direction might be expected to want Manchester Airport? The much larger Heathrow requires a change of trains at Old Oak. There are IIUC 6-8 tph Piccadilly-Airport 13 mins direct- 21 minutes 'all stns'. Heathrow- Paddington 20-35 mins.

Might a routing for a two-track 'slower' classic lines HS2 be found on existing (or pre-Beeching) formations, maybe with limited 'interventions'?

Could construction start from Piccadilly, or some other easily accessible location, suitable for onward travel into 'Manchester' or beyond? I'm conscious of the relative 'inaccessibility' of East Lancs to London (if indeed there is a 'market/ need' for that, and the perceived (political?) need for HS2 to reach Leeds.

I very much appreciate that redesign costs time and money- it needs to be considered as part of the mix. To my mind 'something' is better than the current offer of 'nothing'; the great is the enemy of the good.

'Along the way' I have long been 'intrigued' by the alternative routes available through Staffs where capacity is both provided and limited by tunnels, two- track portions and flat junctions. Might that be another (subsequent?) 'project'?

Manchester Airport is just a convenient place to put a parkway station for Manchester. People from across Cheshire and the wider north-west want somewhere that is easy to drive to in order to catch a train to London. It's similar to Birmingham Interchange, which is at a useful interchange node on the British motorway network. The fact that there are local trip generators and the very real possibility of new development nearby is just the icing on the cake to justify more trains stopping there.

London doesn't need a parkway like this because the balance of passenger journeys is quite different. People will park and ride around Manchester to get to central London but people around London won't park and ride so much to get to central Manchester. If you're considering doing that, then you may well just drive all the way.

I do not understand the obsession with building a branch of HS2 as far as Greater Manchester. It is only 1 of a number of places in North-West England served by the WCML and in population terms only accounts (excluding Wigan Borough which is served directly by the WCML) for about 35% (2.5m/7.1m) of the population of North-West England, which is broken down as follows:

• Cheshire (including Warrington): 0.9m
• Greater Manchester, excluding Wigan Borough: 2.5m
• Wigan Borough 0.3m
• Merseyside 1.4m
• Lancashire 1.5m
• Cumberland, Westmorland and Furness 0.5m

North of Crewe, rail traffic disperses in several different directions, so the cost/benefit of building any HS2 (or HS2 replacement) branches north of there is poor. However, there is a need to bypass the WCML bottleneck through Colwich/Shugborough/Stafford at least as far as a point just south of Crewe, and this might as well be HS2 phase 2a as far as this point, as it has already been planned and designed in detail.

The need (or otherwise) for NPR is a separate matter and the case for it should be handled separately. IMO, the only enhancement required is between Stalybridge and Huddersfield and existing lines from Liverpool via Chat Moss and Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge are adequate for the likely traffic demand for the foreseeable future. There is no need for any expensive tunnelling within Manchester.

Manchester is a city that is capable of generating more journeys than the neighbouring areas can, even if you can add up to the same overall population. Tourists go to Manchester; they don't randomly split between Warrington and Wigan. Businesses locate themselves in central Manchester because there are other businesses there and plenty of workers within commute distance. This is agglomeration theory and it has been a large part of the justification for HS2 and other rail investment over the years. Adding good jobs in Manchester city centre helps to create other more normal jobs (e.g. plumbers) in the local area, but the reverse isn't true.

 

[camflyer]

The 10% saving quoted is from the HS2 options report, ie at the design stage.

But increases in other costs due to inflation over the delay period will surely be more.

 

[daodao]

Tourists go to Manchester

LOL - you must be joking! Like most northern English large urban areas, Manchester is a grimy rundown ex-industrial conurbation that people want to leave, with little of beauty or historical interest for visitors. The population of what is now Greater Manchester has hardly increased in the last 100 years: it was 2.617m in 1911 and 2.685m in 2011. Industry has largely departed - only today, Kellogg's (Kellanova) have announced that they are closing their large iconic factory in Trafford Park.

The primary purpose of HS2 is to shorten journey times to England's capital city, so the demand will primarily be proportionately related to the population of the provincial area served.

 

[AlastairFraser]

LOL - you must be joking! Like most northern English cities, Manchester is a grimy rundown ex-industrial city that people want to leave, with little of beauty or historical interest for visitors. Industry has largely departed - only today, Kellogg's (Kellanova) have announced that they are closing their large iconic factory in Trafford Park.

The primary purpose of HS2 is to shorten journey times to England's capital city, so the demand will primarily be proportionately related to the population of the provincial area served.

Your view of Manchester is a little outdated - I know you have links to GM, but the truth is that the Manchester area has a hell of a lot going for it economically. So many new jobs, a lot of new housing, a vibrant nightlife.
The redevelopment is far from complete and hasn't improved the lives of all GM residents equally, but it's certainly not a city in decline any more.

 

[Grimsby town]

I do not understand the obsession with building a branch of HS2 as far as Greater Manchester. It is only 1 of a number of places in North-West England served by the WCML and in population terms only accounts (excluding Wigan Borough which is served directly by the WCML) for about 35% (2.5m/7.1m) of the population of North-West England, which is broken down as follows:

• Cheshire (including Warrington): 0.9m
• Greater Manchester, excluding Wigan Borough: 2.5m
• Wigan Borough 0.3m
• Merseyside 1.4m
• Lancashire 1.5m
• Cumberland, Westmorland and Furness 0.5m

North of Crewe, rail traffic disperses in several different directions, so the cost/benefit of building any HS2 (or HS2 replacement) branches north of there is poor. However, there is a need to bypass the WCML bottleneck through Colwich/Shugborough/Stafford at least as far as a point just south of Crewe, and this might as well be HS2 phase 2a as far as this point, as it has already been planned and designed in detail.

The need (or otherwise) for NPR is a separate matter and the case for it should be handled separately. IMO, the only enhancement required is between Stalybridge and Huddersfield and existing lines from Liverpool via Chat Moss and Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge are adequate for the likely traffic demand for the foreseeable future. There is no need for any expensive tunnelling within Manchester.

But the percentage of North West rail services that go through Greater Manchester must be huge. That's the thing, Manchester is at the centre of the rail network in the north west. Liverpool is reliant on Manchester infrastructure to be connected to the east of the country. Even Blackpool and Preston are to a certain extent. Manchester is always going to require far more trains than its population suggests. Compare Newcastle to Sunderland for example. Yes Newcastle is the bigger place but Sunderland is a decent sized city in its own right. Yet Newcastle's rail service is far better because it has large passenger flows passing through it.

Facts are that Manchester's rail network is as heavily utilised as its going to get without the whole thing falling to pieces. Yet the population is growing significantly. Look at the development in Stockport now. Its quite conceivable that in a decade that corridor could be crush loaded. Metrolink is pretty decent but doesn't reach every area. If we want to get people out of cars, we need more frequent local services.

 

[Tezza1978]

LOL - you must be joking! Like most northern English large urban areas, Manchester is a grimy rundown ex-industrial city that people want to leave, with little of beauty or historical interest for visitors. Industry has largely departed - only today, Kellogg's (Kellanova) have announced that they are closing their large iconic factory in Trafford Park.

The primary purpose of HS2 is to shorten journey times to England's capital city, so the demand will primarily be proportionately related to the population of the provincial area served.

Eh? Have you ever visited Manchester?!

I'm an Essex boy, now Warrington based but lived in Manc from 1997-2011. Still regularly visit friends there, go on nights out, take the kids for days out and/or attend business meetings. Its totally unrecognisable from 1997, in comparison it now looks like Manhattan, skyscrapers everywhere. Huge music and club scene and cultural heritage, loads of great museums and art galleries and an extensive Metrolink network.

A place where "people want to leave" - have you seen the growth of the population of central Manchester and the house prices in West Didsbury and Chorlton?!

 

[Grimsby town]

Eh? Have you ever visited Manchester?!

I'm an Essex boy, now Warrington based but lived in Manc from 1997-2011. Still regularly visit friends there, go on nights out, take the kids for days out and/or attend business meetings. Its totally unrecognisable from 1997, in comparison it now looks like Manhattan, skyscrapers everywhere. Huge music and club scene and cultural heritage, loads of great museums and art galleries and an extensive Metrolink network.

A place where "people want to leave" - have you seen the growth of the population of central Manchester and the house prices in West Didsbury and Chorlton?!

Exactly. Manchester City Centres population is going to reach 100,000 next year. In 2001 it was 17,000. That's a huge increase to a population most of which don't have cars (see 2021 census, most of the area is 60%+ no car household) and therefore will make a lot of rail journeys.

I live in Old Trafford. I can see the development creeping towards me from the city centre. There's a significant amount of demolition occurring currently to build new flats. The population continues to grow. I say this as someone who doesn't think Manchester is perfect and is moving away from the area. I can't deny it's pulling power and growth.

 

[JamesT]

But increases in other costs due to inflation over the delay period will surely be more.

It seems unlikely that those cost increases would have been disproportionately more for HS2 than for alternatives. So if the options paper had a 140mph being 10% cheaper, it's probably still 10% cheaper than the current cost of HS2.

 

[Tezza1978]

Exactly. Manchester City Centres population is going to reach 100,000 next year. In 2001 it was 17,000. That's a huge increase to a population most of which don't have cars (see 2021 census, most of the area is 60%+ no car household) and therefore will make a lot of rail journeys.

I live in Old Trafford. I can see the development creeping towards me from the city centre. There's a significant amount of demolition occurring currently to build new flats. The population continues to grow. I say this as someone who doesn't think Manchester is perfect and is moving away from the area. I can't deny it's pulling power and growth.

Indeed its not perfect by any means (becoming a bit like London in terms of house prices and there are still some areas that are as rough as a badger's backside) - but its got huge pulling power. I travel across the UK for work/leisure and many other towns and cities either have far more ingrained problems (e.g. Wakefield), poor public transport (e.g. Leeds) , or are characterless run down commuter towns with identical shops, sometimes crime issues and little to recommend them to visit (e.g. Widnes and essentially lots of the external "towns" in Outer London like Romford -went to school near there and its seriously gone downhill )

Not everywhere can be a "pretty" town like Salisbury or Chester!

 

[Krokodil]

LOL - you must be joking! Like most northern English large urban areas, Manchester is a grimy rundown ex-industrial conurbation that people want to leave, with little of beauty or historical interest for visitors. The population of what is now Greater Manchester has hardly increased in the last 100 years: it was 2.617m in 1911 and 2.685m in 2011. Industry has largely departed - only today, Kellogg's (Kellanova) have announced that they are closing their large iconic factory in Trafford Park.

You realise that most tourists aren't looking for Kellogg's factories? Saturday services to Manchester are packed, whether that's people going shopping, to see the football, to go to the Arena, out for a stag night...

The primary purpose of HS2 is to shorten journey times to England's capital city, so the demand will primarily be proportionately related to the population of the provincial area served.

No, the primary purpose of HS2 is to relieve the busiest mixed-traffic line in Europe.

 

[Topological]

Rightly, or wrongly, Manchester is a huge destination for people flying in to the airport as well.

I try not to let the fact TfW think a 150 from Cardiff is sufficient put the place down

 

[Peter Sarf]

Maybe. Personally I wouldn't get attached to the idea of "they'll have to do Phase 2a, it's the only sensible option"...

+

I‘m not. Although I think it is still the most likely outcome.

So we need to quickly get to the point where a new solution is shovel ready but just DON'T call it HS2 Phase 2a.

How about Midlands to Cheshire rail relief route.

 

[och aye]

Eh? Have you ever visited Manchester?!

I'm an Essex boy, now Warrington based but lived in Manc from 1997-2011. Still regularly visit friends there, go on nights out, take the kids for days out and/or attend business meetings. Its totally unrecognisable from 1997, in comparison it now looks like Manhattan, skyscrapers everywhere. Huge music and club scene and cultural heritage, loads of great museums and art galleries and an extensive Metrolink network.

A place where "people want to leave" - have you seen the growth of the population of central Manchester and the house prices in West Didsbury and Chorlton?!

I'm a little surprised by the scathing view of the city too. Of course it has it's rough parts (what large city in the UK doesn't?), but the city centre has a lot going for it, as you describe very well in your post.

+

So we need to quickly get to the point where a new solution is shovel ready but just DON'T call it HS2 Phase 2a.

How about Midlands to Cheshire rail relief route.

Indeed.

I'm not saying not calling the original project HS2 something else would have saved it, but at least it would have better communicated to the public what it was trying to achieve. Something mundane like the "West Coast Mainline Capacity Upgrade" could at least given the proponents something better to fight back with, without always having to explain first that the project isn't about fast trains for rich business people in London.

As I've said in previous posts, I do have to give credit to Andy Street and Andy Burnham for attempting to salvage some form of phase 2a.

 

[Snow1964]

Andy Burnham has updated the TfN meeting in Leeds on preferred route

A new train line that would cost less than HS2 is the 'best solution' to improve train services between Manchester and Birmingham, a review commissioned by Andy Burnham has concluded. The review by a group of private sector companies considered three options.

Among them was a new line between Handsacre Junction in Staffordshire, where the first phase of HS2 will end, and High Legh in Cheshire, where another new line from Manchester to Liverpool is set to be built. Speaking at a Transport for the North (TfN) board meeting in Leeds today (March 20), Mr Burnham revealed the findings of the review, saying that this new line is the 'best solution'

Mr Burnham told the TfN board meeting that this new line would mostly be over ground which means 'not much' tunnelling would be required, making it cheaper to build. He also told the board that any new line should go via Crewe, where HS2 trains were set to stop.

However, he insisted this proposal is not an attempt to revive HS2. He said: "This is the son or daughter of HS2. It's not the same thing."

New cheaper train line is 'best' alternative to HS2, Andy Burnham says

The Greater Manchester mayor has revealed the findings of a review by a group of private companies he commissioned

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

 

[camflyer]

Lord Adonis is more optomistic:"HS2 will happen.. just 30 years later than it would have been"

Business travel leaders have been assured the HS2 high-speed rail project “will happen” despite the government cancelling the planned link beyond Birmingham and Manchester last October.

Former transport secretary Lord Andrew Adonis, who unveiled the plans for HS2 in 2010, told the Business Travel Association conference in London last week: “Let me reassure you – HS2 will happen.

“It will go through to Manchester and be completed around 30 years later than it would have been.”

HS2 ‘will go to Manchester’ despite PM cancelling line beyond Birmingham | Travel Weekly

New Euston terminal will also be built, Lord Adonis assures business travel leaders

travelweekly.co.uk

 

[eldomtom2]

Andy Burnham has updated the TfN meeting in Leeds on preferred route

New cheaper train line is 'best' alternative to HS2, Andy Burnham says

The Greater Manchester mayor has revealed the findings of a review by a group of private companies he commissioned

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

Is the report planned to be publicly released?

 

[ABB125]

Andy Burnham has updated the TfN meeting in Leeds on preferred route

New cheaper train line is 'best' alternative to HS2, Andy Burnham says

The Greater Manchester mayor has revealed the findings of a review by a group of private companies he commissioned

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

"We will not resurrect HS2. But we will reuse all of the alignment. And rename part of it"

 

[Bald Rick]

"We will not resurrect HS2. But we will reuse all of the alignment. And rename part of it"

The crystal ball still works.

 

[eldomtom2]

"We will not resurrect HS2. But we will reuse all of the alignment. And rename part of it"

Hence the comments that the proposed line would be "the son or daughter of HS2". The article notes the following differences at the very least:

After the meeting, the mayors told the media the new train line would cost 'considerably less' than HS2 would have.

[...]

The third option - a completely new 'segregated' line - would not necessarily be built to the same standard as the high-speed line which is currently under construction between London and Birmingham. The Conservative mayor of the West Midlands said that running trains at a lower speed on this new line would keep costs down while still freeing up space on existing lines for freight trains.

It's clear that from a political perspective just dusting off the Phase 2a plans without some sort of change is deemed impossible.

 

[Krokodil]

So they're planning to build Phase 2A and connect it to NPR (essentially changing the ownership of the Man Airport to Man Picc from one line to the other).

 

[MarkyT]

So they're planning to build Phase 2A and connect it to NPR (essentially changing the ownership of the Man Airport to Man Picc from one line to the other).

I didn't say that. I have not been here...

 

[Energy]

So they're planning to build Phase 2A and connect it to NPR (essentially changing the ownership of the Man Airport to Man Picc from one line to the other).

Pretty much. 2A, plus the bit of 2b which isn't between Liverpool and Manchester.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Pretty much. 2A, plus the bit of 2b which isn't between Liverpool and Manchester.

Or in short, the solution to not building HS2 is HS2, but with slight differences to allow face to be retained.

To be fair I don't mind if it gets the thing built.

 

[BrianW]

Or in short, the solution to not building HS2 is HS2, but with slight differences to allow face to be retained.

To be fair I don't mind if it gets the thing built.

So, 2b not to be, but to be called something else, not part of or son or daughter of HS2, or NPR... the 'missing link' maybe- an evolution, from a dinosaur perhaps?

With you on this Bletchleyite- if it looks like a duck, a 'Mallard' or 'Great Snipe' maybe, and waddles like a duck, time to stop grousing and 'get on with it', whatever it may be called.

 

[Tezza1978]

Pretty much. 2A, plus the bit of 2b which isn't between Liverpool and Manchester.

This was always going to be the outcome. Plus the guff about making the line not the same "standard" as the rest of HS2 is just that - guff. For the comparative small change it will cost to make this line full HS2 speed vs 125mph/140mph its of course worth doing in terms of bang for buck.

The North Midlands High Capacity Relief Line, with a High Speed Connection to Northern PowerHouse Rail (***cough*** HS2 Phase 2A AND 2b **cough cough***)

 

[Krokodil]

Plus the guff about making the line not the same "standard" as the rest of HS2 is just that - guff. For the comparative small change it will cost to make this line full HS2 speed vs 125mph/140mph its of course worth doing in terms of bang for buck.

The section between Manchester Airport and Piccadilly was never going to be more than 140mph anyway. Not unless you have dragster acceleration rates, it's only nine miles or so.

 

[Snow1964]

The BBC is now running the story too, of new line HS2a, (but with new name) 70 miles of new line north from Hansacre

New Staffordshire-Manchester rail line proposed

The proposed line is the preferred option to improve connection between the West Midlands and north.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[HSTEd]

Proposed is very different from "will be built".

Burnham et al can say they want whatever they want, it doesn't mean they will get it.

 

[eldomtom2]

Or in short, the solution to not building HS2 is HS2, but with slight differences to allow face to be retained.

Well, I'd say there's one fairly massive difference - the proposed funding source.

Proposed is very different from "will be built".

Burnham et al can say they want whatever they want, it doesn't mean they will get it.

Agreed.

The article about the proposal in the i explicitly compares the planned funding model to the LGV Sud Europe Atlantique:

Revealed: English Mayors' French-style solution to HS2 North

Andy Street and Andy Burnham examine Bordeaux-to-Tours funding model as a way to replace axed high-speed line

inews.co.uk

The group believes a new rail line could be delivered using both private and public finance under a similar funding model used to build the new Bordeaux to Tours high-speed link on the TGV network.

Around €3.8bn of the overall €7.8bn cost of the 302km TGV line was provided by private finance, which will be recouped via a 50 year concession contract.