HS2 update Transport Select Committee 10/1/24

[Benjwri]

As for the gradual build-out, indeed that approach could even increase costs slightly. The big benefit though is that it's much easier to fund/approve/deliver piece-meal schemes with smaller price-tags.

Gradual build out is part of the problem, unless it’s designed in parts too. Part of the issue with HS2 has been the government has told them to slow down, and in that time costs have gone up through inflation.

Very few long-distance trains will actually be removable.
Unless you propose to leave MKC et al without services beyond Birmingham, which I imagine would go down like a lead balloon with the electorate.

So a higher frequency of trains connecting onto fast trains up north would be that terrible?

I don’t think I can think of a project where someone hasn’t been disadvantaged, it’s unavoidable, you can never please everyone. That’s part of what has already held HS2 back, and sometimes the amount of people something will benefit needs to be held up against the significantly smaller amount it will disadvantage. (In terms of original HS2, without comment on current plans.

 

[Mordac]

As a German colleague said about Stuttgart 21: "Don't include the year in which you intend to finish in the project name as it then becomes very obvious when it's late"

Just like Thameslink 2000.

 

[snowball]

If a line like HS2 is built in parts then you have to spend billions extra at each tie-in point to create the junctions.

Furthermore if HS2 had gone via Rugby it would not have done anything to relieve the congestion at or around New Street.

 

[Meerkat]

Do the Spanish HSLs have anything like the level of environmental mitigation and noise blocking?
The footprint of HS2 is huge when you watch the CGI fly through - all the habitat creation and retention ponds etc etc involve a lot of land.

 

[HSTEd]

Looking at DfT over 25k payments the last two updates from Oct/Nov have WMT being paid c48m for each of those months but only a modest 2m payment to First Trenitalia Rail suggesting like LNER they are close to covering base costs. So as you rightly say the cost of running WCML isn't going to drop that much unless they drop line speed back to 100mph it will be in the highest track category for starters. HS2 will be deadweight around the industry unless it is separated out from the classic network.

You also have to account for a suitable portion of the several billion pounds of subsidy that takes the merry-go-round route through Network Rail, that is what really does the damage.

 

[stuu]

Do the Spanish HSLs have anything like the level of environmental mitigation and noise blocking?
The footprint of HS2 is huge when you watch the CGI fly through - all the habitat creation and retention ponds etc etc involve a lot of land.

The ludicrous amount of landscaping must have added significantly to the cost. Like the green tunnel to ensure the car auction centre in Chipping Warden isn't disturbed

 

[The Ham]

You also have to account for a suitable portion of the several billion pounds of subsidy that takes the merry-go-round route through Network Rail, that is what really does the damage.

The Network Rail grant was £7.5bn, there's about 20 TOC's (the exact number depends on if you include or exclude TfL Rail, Merseyside, open access operator), if that's split equally across each that's an average of about £0.3bn to £0.4bn (depending on how many you are counting), so if we assume £0.4bn each and the circa £0.2bn indicated by @Nicholas Lewis we just scrape £1bn when you said:

And the two major west coast main line franchises (Avanti/ICWC and LNWR/WMT etc) are burning well over a billion pounds a year in net subsidy as it is.

TOC's like GWR and SWR are likely to need more NR spending as the amount of track they run over (and the amount of shared track is a lot lower) is likely to be higher. As such arguably the mainline franchises are probably a lower cost (even if they need higher maintenance to enable their fast services).

 

[HSTEd]

The Network Rail grant was £7.5bn, there's about 20 TOC's (the exact number depends on if you include or exclude TfL Rail, Merseyside, open access operator), if that's split equally across each that's an average of about £0.3bn to £0.4bn (depending on how many you are counting), so if we assume £0.4bn each and the circa £0.2bn indicated by @Nicholas Lewis we just scrape £1bn when you said:

How do you get £200m From £48 million a month to WMT and £2m a month to Avanti?

 

[The Planner]

Looking at DfT over 25k payments the last two updates from Oct/Nov have WMT being paid c48m for each of those months but only a modest 2m payment to First Trenitalia Rail suggesting like LNER they are close to covering base costs. So as you rightly say the cost of running WCML isn't going to drop that much unless they drop line speed back to 100mph it will be in the highest track category for starters. HS2 will be deadweight around the industry unless it is separated out from the classic network.

Still wouldn't alter it as the tonnage would still keep it in the top category.

 

[The Ham]

How do you get £200m From £48 million a month to WMT and £2m a month to Avanti?

Sorry miss read, I read those months as three months.

However I've found some data, table 7223 which says for 2022/23 LNER was £85 million whilst West Coast was £91 million, which is £174 million.

 

[HSTEd]

Sorry miss read, I read those months as three months.

However I've found some data, table 7223 which says for 2022/23 LNER was £85 million whilst West Coast was £91 million, which is £174 million.

(EDIT: I thought we were talking about the WCML, which is WMT and Avanti/ICWC, not Avanti/ICWC and LNER?)

If you go to Network Rail's accounts you can work out that you would have to increase track access charges by a factor of around 4.4x to make it revenue Neutral.
Now something odd is going on with table 7223 because it lists much larger track access charge payments than Network Rail received, and digging around shows the discrepancy is way larger than the Core valley Lines, HS1 and such can account for. So I'm not sure whats going on there.

However we can scale, according to Network Rail's accounts we have to raise ~£7.5bn a year in additional track access charges, and according to Table 7223 Avanti pays 8.0% of access charges and WMT pays 4.6%.
Between them 12.6%, so if the subsidy concealed via Network Rail is ~12.6% of the total, that makes ~£945m additional subsidies concealed via Network Rail.

Add £275m for WMT and £91m to Avanti in direct subsidy and we are looking at something on order of ~£1.3bn per year in cash terms.

Even the WCML is burning a billion plus a year in subsidy in cash terms.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Sorry miss read, I read those months as three months.

However I've found some data, table 7223 which says for 2022/23 LNER was £85 million whilst West Coast was £91 million, which is £174 million.

Ridership has further improved into 2023/4 despite the strikes and the DfT over 25k payments which are updated monthly but released 2-3mths in arrears is the best indicator as to how well each operator is currently doing.