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If the last of the BR steam engines had been allowed to live out their natural lifespan, when would they have been withdrawn?

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Sm5

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All these posts assume construction of steam ended in 1960.

If steam construction had continued to around 1970, with diesel designs fully tested and emerging technology understood, the excess waste of Type 1 and Type 2 may never have happened and a focus on Type 3-5 diesels leaving existing steam ops up until privatisation (i doubt there would be any takers at that point).

However in some respects mainline steam today is the residual of whats left.. there is only a handful of “preserved” steam on the mainline, 45596, 6233, 35028 etc.

Many steam locomotives what we have now are custodianship by commercial businesses using steam on the mainline for a revenue stream, which by nature makes them “plant assets” rather than museum pieces, recognising that for some the profits are charitable.
 
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eldomtom2

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I think the best answer for the OP would be to see the costings - how long were the Standard designs amortised over? And let's not forget the rebuilds of the Bulleid pacifics, which were going on until 1960 or so? (And costing a fair whack!) I'd expect they were all costed for a lifetime of 30 years, so sometime into the 1980s.
For reference Colin Boocock in Oliver Bulleid's Locomotives claims that the rebuilds just barely clawed back the cost of the rebuilds in fuel savings etc. before they were withdrawn.
 

edwin_m

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For reference Colin Boocock in Oliver Bulleid's Locomotives claims that the rebuilds just barely clawed back the cost of the rebuilds in fuel savings etc. before they were withdrawn.
There might also have been some benefit in availability - if they were in service more of the time then fewer new locomotives needed to be built.
 

mike57

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If the rush to replace steam with diesel had been replaced by a more ordered phasing out would this have resulted in more electrification? A lot of money was wasted on some pretty useless designs, and the changing nature of the railways would probably have meant that a lot of the lower powered engines would never have been constructed at all. So money would have been saved. My own view is that if the elimination of steam had become less of a doctrine, and more of a logical progression steam would probably have survived until 1973-5, although I suspect the miners strike of 1972 and again in 1974 might have hastened the end with steam maybe surviving in a few odd outposts a bit longer. I think once suitable designs became available or the work dried up steam would have finished, but it would have been on a much more piecemeal basis.
 

RT4038

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If the rush to replace steam with diesel had been replaced by a more ordered phasing out would this have resulted in more electrification? A lot of money was wasted on some pretty useless designs, and the changing nature of the railways would probably have meant that a lot of the lower powered engines would never have been constructed at all. So money would have been saved. My own view is that if the elimination of steam had become less of a doctrine, and more of a logical progression steam would probably have survived until 1973-5, although I suspect the miners strike of 1972 and again in 1974 might have hastened the end with steam maybe surviving in a few odd outposts a bit longer. I think once suitable designs became available or the work dried up steam would have finished, but it would have been on a much more piecemeal basis.
The elimination of steam power 'doctrine' was based on the reduction of operating costs - particularly manpower (both on the engines, on the number of engines (and therefore crews) required to move a given timetable and traffic, and in the servicing in MPDs and overhaul in workshops.

Given these huge savings, at a time when labour costs were rising faster than fares, and the difficulty in recruitment, why would this doctrine have been watered/slowed down? With the benefit of hindsight, none of the steam locomotive construction should have happened post war, except that the political, social and financial conditions in the late40s/early 50s precluded large scale diesel purchase/construction. However the pendulum swung by the late 50s, and it is difficult to see how the diesel doctrine could have been any different unless Government was going to pay more subsidy or prioritise continuing steam operations over the modernisation of the network?
 

Western Sunset

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Whilst much of mainland Europe was electrifying its major routes, the UK was continuing to build steam locos of the Big Four designs, as well as new standard classes. Now Riddles could clearly see that diesel ocos were ideal for shunting and that electrification was the natural successor for main line services. However, Riddles realised that with restrictions on capital investment, the strength (or weakness) of the £ and various import barriers, all tipped the balance towards thermally inefficient, but low first-cost, steam locos. ["BR 1948-73; A business history". Terry Gourvish, 1986].
 

RT4038

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Whilst much of mainland Europe was electrifying its major routes, the UK was continuing to build steam locos of the Big Four designs, as well as new standard classes. Now Riddles could clearly see that diesel ocos were ideal for shunting and that electrification was the natural successor for main line services. However, Riddles realised that with restrictions on capital investment, the strength (or weakness) of the £ and various import barriers, all tipped the balance towards thermally inefficient, but low first-cost, steam locos. ["BR 1948-73; A business history". Terry Gourvish, 1986].
Plus keeping our loco building / overhauling in business.
 

edwin_m

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Plus keeping our loco building / overhauling in business.
But building steam for the domestic market doesn't help exports if every other country wants diesel or electric. And whatever is built has to be overhauled - probably just at greater cost to the taxpayer if it is steam...
 

Cowley

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One possible side effect of steam finishing in service more slowly might have been that there weren’t 200+ steam locomotives sitting in a Welsh scrapyard waiting to be rescued.
Maybe people would have started buying them directly from BR service, but BR didn’t always make things easy.
 

eldomtom2

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But building steam for the domestic market doesn't help exports if every other country wants diesel or electric. And whatever is built has to be overhauled - probably just at greater cost to the taxpayer if it is steam...
Though part of the problem with the early diesel classes was that the manufacturers had to start building diesels on very short notice, since they were expecting electric to be the future...
 

Western Sunset

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I think if steam had petered out relatively slowly, we'd have had less preserved stuff. Locos would've been quickly cut-up, so less time to start appeals to save them.
 

RT4038

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But building steam for the domestic market doesn't help exports if every other country wants diesel or electric. And whatever is built has to be overhauled - probably just at greater cost to the taxpayer if it is steam...
You may well be right, but the politics of the time meant that such places of employment couldn't just be closed.
 

gc4946

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I've forgotten the title of the book which this info appeared in, but the original plan was to abandon steam by 1975.
EDIT: It was "Going by train 1825-1975: 150 years of rail travel in Britain" (a Railway Magazine special) published 1975
 
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Mogz

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I think if steam had petered out relatively slowly, we'd have had less preserved stuff. Locos would've been quickly cut-up, so less time to start appeals to save them.
That’s true. Also, arguably, if it hadn’t been for Beeching we wouldn’t have so many preserved lines to run them on in 2022.

As it is, wherever you are in the UK you’re never far from a preserved line where steam can be enjoyed.

If the pre-Beeching network had carried on, by now most of the preserved linesman would only be running a skeletal loss making “few trains a day” service to unstaffed stations with bus shelter facilities.
 

mike57

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If the pre-Beeching network had carried on, by now most of the preserved linesman would only be running a skeletal loss making “few trains a day” service to unstaffed stations with bus shelter facilities.
But there would still have been a cull, some lines were total basket cases, and had outlived their purpose. Others could have benefited from cost cutting and simplification, and probably should have been kept. Looking at some of the larger preserved lines, NYMR, a shorter route to Whitby from a lot of places, but through a less populated area, probably would have closed anyway. Great Central, a duplication on a fairly circuituous route, maybe London to Rugby would have survived, as a WCML relief, but north of that less likely. North Norfolk railway probably would have survived. KWVR, another survivor as its quite a populated area. However a lot of the railways that are currently on peoples reopen list, for example in our area, Beverley York, Hull Withernsea, Harrogate - Ripon - Northallerton have no preserved activity, so assuming the preservation movement grew in a similar way in our parallel universe there would still be plenty of lines that could have been reused.

I suppose the question is was the preservation movement a reaction to the savage Beeching cutbacks, or something that has more to do with our nation identity. Certainly looking across the channel to France, where there are still a lot of 'few trains a day' lines there is nothing like the number of preserved lines, but is this due to the different approach to closures, or because they are French (I don't mean this in a disparaging way, just highlighting national differences)
 

Calthrop

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But there would still have been a cull, some lines were total basket cases, and had outlived their purpose. Others could have benefited from cost cutting and simplification, and probably should have been kept. Looking at some of the larger preserved lines, NYMR, a shorter route to Whitby from a lot of places, but through a less populated area, probably would have closed anyway. Great Central, a duplication on a fairly circuituous route, maybe London to Rugby would have survived, as a WCML relief, but north of that less likely. North Norfolk railway probably would have survived. KWVR, another survivor as its quite a populated area. However a lot of the railways that are currently on peoples reopen list, for example in our area, Beverley York, Hull Withernsea, Harrogate - Ripon - Northallerton have no preserved activity, so assuming the preservation movement grew in a similar way in our parallel universe there would still be plenty of lines that could have been reused.

(My bolding) Just from idle interest, and because I like that part of the world: in "our time-line", while the Midland & Great Northern Joint system as such, lost its passenger services (and much of it, concurrently, was totally abandoned) in 1959; its Cromer -- Melton Constable section alone, retained a passenger service (freight too), until the Beeching Report came along a few years later: passenger closure was in spring 1964. Is that basically the scenario which you see for the "parallel universe"; or do you envisage the M&GN system, or most of it, still being with us today? (If only ...)

I suppose the question is was the preservation movement a reaction to the savage Beeching cutbacks, or something that has more to do with our nation identity. Certainly looking across the channel to France, where there are still a lot of 'few trains a day' lines there is nothing like the number of preserved lines, but is this due to the different approach to closures, or because they are French (I don't mean this in a disparaging way, just highlighting national differences)

I'd go with "the latter" -- again, no disparagement; just, national characters. I think one can say with certainty that Britain has, and has long had, a greater number / ratio of railway enthusiasts -- and thus potential preservationists -- against population as a whole; than most other nations of the world. France, with about the same population: has and has always had, far fewer railfans. Would venture to suggest that -- for whatever reason(s) -- in Latin countries generally, railway enthusiasts tend to be few and far between.
 

52290

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Yes I have several photos I took of p8s in 1973, a trip to Tubingen shed found only one loco on shed but 52s operating through the station

A visit to Verdun revealed a large number of withdrawn locos , in 1973.
In 1974 I was surprised to see this 93 year old lady employed as shed pilot at Contumil, Oporto. Her job was to drag dead locos around the depot area, including young diesel whippersnappers. She was also one of the last coalfired broad-gauge locos on the CP. None of that new fangled diesel food for her!
 

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mike57

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or do you envisage the M&GN system, or most of it, still being with us today? (If only ...)
Probably not most of it, but certainly parts of it. At the time of closure I think North Norfolk was quite remote from London, nowadays less so. Bits of the routes which could connect conveniently with London services would probably be viable.

Today Kings Lynn is 1hr 50m from London, Norwich is 1h 45m A quick look at Timetable world for 1959 shows journeys at least 1h slower, and far less frequent, so today feeder services on the branches might have a place. I realise that in the real world reopening is never going to happen, but if some lines hadn't closed they might have survived long enough to gain benefit from an improved inter city service(s) from the major hubs, and might have ended up like our local line, which has unmanned stations, shelters, ticket machines, PIS and not much else.

On our line (Hull Scarborough, which got very close to closure at one point) trains were increased to hourly a few years ago, and apart from the Covid hit are now well used, With one change I can be in London or quite a lot of other places, and we have good access to Hull and Scarborough if we dont want to use the car. Our last holiday in France started with a 10 min walk to our village station, to pick up a train which with changes in Hull, Kings Cross and Lille got us to our destination with very little hassle.
 

70014IronDuke

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In 1974 I was surprised to see this 93 year old lady employed as shed pilot at Contumil, Oporto. Her job was to drag dead locos around the depot area, including young diesel whippersnappers. She was also one of the last coalfired broad-gauge locos on the CP. None of that new fangled diesel food for her!
Damn! I was in Portugal in August 74, but didn't know about this!

However, I have a strong suspicion (but don't know) that the use of this loco was 'contrived' by one or two senior managers in CP, rather than an 'organic' or 'authentic' need for this engine.
 

52290

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Damn! I was in Portugal in August 74, but didn't know about this!

However, I have a strong suspicion (but don't know) that the use of this loco was 'contrived' by one or two senior managers in CP, rather than an 'organic' or 'authentic' need for this engine.
If true, this could have applied to the whole of northern Portugal at the time.
 

coppercapped

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Whilst much of mainland Europe was electrifying its major routes, the UK was continuing to build steam locos of the Big Four designs, as well as new standard classes. Now Riddles could clearly see that diesel ocos were ideal for shunting and that electrification was the natural successor for main line services. However, Riddles realised that with restrictions on capital investment, the strength (or weakness) of the £ and various import barriers, all tipped the balance towards thermally inefficient, but low first-cost, steam locos. ["BR 1948-73; A business history". Terry Gourvish, 1986].
Correct, but this is only part of the story.

Other people at the time questioned Riddles' decision but because of the disfunctional way the railways and other transport businesses were organised on nationalisation in 1947 nobody, not even the British Transport Commission which nominally controlled the activities of the Railway Executive - for which Riddles worked - could change or even influence the RE's decisions.

In the short term - until 1950 or 1951 - there was clearly no alternative than to continue building steam locomotives, but there is a big question mark about the need for new designs and the lack of interest shown by Riddles and the RE in the potential of diesel traction. With this in mind, the BTC's records show that it took action after noting the speed with which the Executive was tackling the standardisation of steam motive power. The RE set up the Locomotive Standards Committee within a week of nationalisation on 8 January 1948. In April (the same month that the well known locomotive exchanges took place) the Commission's Chairman (Hurcomb) wrote to Sir Eustace Missenden, the Chairman of the RE, to express his dissatisfaction with the progress made in assessing the merits of different forms of traction. The reaction was grudging - over 8 months later, on 20 December 1948, a committee was set up under J. L. Harrington, the Chief Officer (Administration) at RE Headquarters to study the issue. It reported at the end of 1951.

Wow! The RE started work on new steam locomotives within a week but it took 3 1/2 years to reply to a letter.

One of the extraordinary features of the Harrington report was the very crude nature of the financial figures presented. The cost comparisons were for built cost only - no effort whatsoever was made to relate operating costs to different utilisation, manning levels, fuel costs or maintenance costs at depot and workshop levels or the effect on journey times of more power. It would seem that the Railway Executive had little need for complicated analysis in deciding its traction policy, nor did it need the BTC to shove its oar in. Until electrification was practical it considered that modern steam locomotives should haul the trains.

Riddles claimed that the capital cost of diesel traction was 5 times more expensive than steam in his speech to the Institution of Locomotive Engineers in 1950, but J. S. Tritton, in his Presidential Address to the Institution of Locomotive Engineers on 17 December 1947 - three years earlier - referred to the capital cost ratio of 1.6 to 1, diesel to steam, based on US experience. One can't help feel that Riddles' figures were chosen to prove a point.

Admittedly BR added diesel shunters to its build programme and picked up railcar development again in 1952, a decade after the last GWR railcars were built. Diesel mainline locomotive development restarted in 1955 with the publication of the Modernisation Plan. But by this time the second or third iteration of, for example, the Ivatt designs could have been putting out 2,000 bhp or more with much operational experience behind them.

Road vehicle reliability and capability had increased enormously as a result of developments in the Second World War as well as an army of ex-servicemen who could operate them - yet the basic unit of freight production remained the 10 ton unbraked van ambling from siding to siding.

The RE did not look at all at these changes and ask itself how the railway should be adapted to compete. The biggest failing of the ‘direction’ of the railways in the early years of nationalisation was that the traffic studies and analyses that Beeching had done in 1961 should have been done 14 or 15 years earlier. But they weren’t. As a result hundreds of pointless steam and diesel locomotives were built for traffic that was already disappearing.

You may well be right, but the politics of the time meant that such places of employment couldn't just be closed.
Possibly, but there was a general shortage of labour at the time.

At the end of the Second World War there were serious labour shortages, some 350,000 men had been killed - they were all fit and most of them were young. The Empire Windrush arrived in 1948 with people who helped fill the labour shortage. Wages were increasing, it was becoming increasingly difficult to attract staff to the dirty jobs done during unsocial hours.

I suggest that abandoning the production of steam locomotives even over a short period of time would have had no measurable effect on the unemployment statistics.
 

mike57

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The RE did not look at all at these changes and ask itself how the railway should be adapted to compete. The biggest failing of the ‘direction’ of the railways in the early years of nationalisation was that the traffic studies and analyses that Beeching had done in 1961 should have been done 14 or 15 years earlier. But they weren’t. As a result hundreds of pointless steam and diesel locomotives were built for traffic that was already disappearing.
This raises another related 'alternative scenario', What if the railways had not been nationalised? Instead the government decided to subsidise the railways, both on infrastructure improvements, and support for loss making services. I dont want to get into the politics, lets just assume nationalisation didn't happen.

SR would undoubtedly have pressed on with electrification, and I suspect the electrified map would include most of the lines which are electrified today. But would steam have hung on in the backwaters. Line closures would still have happened, but I suspect some of the lines closer to London which closed, might have been electrified, and attempts made to develop commuter traffic. I could see the resulting SR network having no non electrified routes apart from possibly the route via Salisbury to Exeter

LNER already had electrification programs at 1500v DC, How would these have developed, I always understood Manchester - Wath was a 'proof of concept' for wider scale main line electrification.

LMS had 10000 and 10001 which seemed to perform OK, would they have developed these designs and switched to diesel, No WCML electrification

GWR had the diesel rail cars from prior to WW2, would those designs have undergone further development, GWR never seemed to seriously consider electrification, although I know there were some proposals in the 1930s. Am I correct in saying of the big 4 they were the only one not to have any electified lines at nationalisation in 1948.

Steam engines may still have been built but I suspect not at the same rate as they were under BR. Steam would have probably been on the wane throughout the 1950s, but the final cutoff might have been more gradual with steam hanging on in odd corners of the network where it was probably running down anyway, with closure immenent. I doubt there would have a big bang Beeching type cut back, more of a general pruning of the basket cases as the reason for their existance disappeared.
 
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Western Sunset

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Here's my "what if?" Based on some real stuff and some made-ups.

SR - 3rd rail electrification throughout Kent, Sussex, and Hants, including to Salisbury and down to Bournemouth (including via Ringwood/Wimborne). Obviously, no "Leaders" as they were a dead end, though doubtless. Bulleid would've come up with a modern small 2-6-0 and 2-6-2T for the remaining West Country branches. Steam largely west of Salisbury; only 20 MNs built and 70 WC/BBs used on more mixed-traffic work. Diesels for shunting, electric locos for Golden Arrow/Night Ferry work. More widespread dieselation west of Salisbury and Bullied's pacifics never rebuilt and withdrawn quite early; steam all gone by 1960. Freight continued to be steam hauled until late 50's, but a rolling programme for them to be replaced by either diesels or electrics. Smaller rural branches and secondary routes would've closed around the same time.

LNER - Electrification of main routes, (including the GC) initially at 1,500v DC but later converted to 25kv AC. Dieselation of services in rural East Anglia. Long haul electric freight flows (lots of EM1s and EM2s)
 

Railwaysceptic

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This raises another related 'alternative scenario', What if the railways had not been nationalised? Instead the government decided to subsidise the railways, both on infrastructure improvements, and support for loss making services. I dont want to get into the politics, lets just assume nationalisation didn't happen.

SR would undoubtedly have pressed on with electrification, and I suspect the electrified map would include most of the lines which are electrified today. But would steam have hung on in the backwaters. Line closures would still have happened, but I suspect some of the lines closer to London which closed, might have been electrified, and attempts made to develop commuter traffic. I could see the resulting SR network having no non electrified routes apart from possibly the route via Salisbury to Exeter.
You surprise me. I think if nationalisation had not taken place, the Southern Railway (SR) would eventually have electrified at least as far as Exeter Central and possibly further. I can't imagine the post war SR would not have prioritised electrifying the main lines out of Waterloo.
 
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D6130

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LNER already had electrification programs at 1500v DC, How would these have developed, I always understood Manchester - Wath was a 'proof of concept' for wider scale main line electrification.
Yes....the EM2 locos - later class 77 - were a high-powered 90 mph express passenger type, developed for the projected electrification Southwards from Sheffield to Marylebone via Nottingham, Leicester and Rugby. I believe that this plan was scuppered by the transfer of the Great Central route south of Nottingham from the Eastern to the London Midland Region and the latter's decision to run it down for eventual closure following completion of the WCML electrification into Euston. As it was, the EM2s never had the chance to stretch their legs on the Woodhead line, with its 60 mph maximum speed, and it was only in the twighlight of their lives - after sale to the Netherlands - that they were able to run at express speeds (135 Km/h or 85 mph).
 

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You surprise me. I think if nationalisation had not taken place, the Southern Railway (SR) would eventually have electrified at least as far as Exeter Central and possibly further. I can't imagine the post war SR would not have prioritised electrifying the main lines out of Waterloo.
My thinking, which may be flawed is that this is the longest route, by a long way, so costs would have been higher, and what was traffic like in the 50s. Bournmouth/Weymouth yes, but beyond Salisbury, possibly not. Diesel operation once the steam was replaced. Maybe we would have seen early versions of Bi-Modes to avoid an engine change.
 

HSTEd

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I'm not sure how economic electrification to Exeter would have been until the advances in technology that made Weymouth much cheaper arrived.
 

70014IronDuke

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If true, this could have applied to the whole of northern Portugal at the time.
Not sure if you are joking or not. But if not, I disagree. Portugal was a poor country, in 1974 only just begining to extricate itself from three ruinously expensive wars on the African continent.

It had kept some steam on numerous branch lines and on secondary routes in the north because CP could not afford the diesels/DMUs or electrification to replace them quickly - either that or because they were holding off on decisions as to what lines would likely close in the near future.

But it wasn't THAT poor that they needed to use this old lady.
 

Irascible

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I would definitely think Waterloo-Plymouth would have been diesel - it was one of the first routes to be tried as diesel ( or at least as far as Exeter ).

I asked a similar question about subsidies vs nationalisation recently, but you might as well ask "what if ww2 was averted". Not nationalising the railways implies a different culture in government, which means other things won't get natinoalised either, like coal. I do not, unfortunately, think anything would save any industry from post-war management.
 

Mikey C

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My thinking, which may be flawed is that this is the longest route, by a long way, so costs would have been higher, and what was traffic like in the 50s. Bournmouth/Weymouth yes, but beyond Salisbury, possibly not. Diesel operation once the steam was replaced. Maybe we would have seen early versions of Bi-Modes to avoid an engine change.
Or a similar 4-REP scheme as worked to Weymouth before full electrification?
 
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