In 2024 is the narrative going to change back to overcrowded trains?

[Adrian1980uk]

Given the increasing numbers of passengers and reductions in capacity over 22/23, next year hopefully the narrative will change back to creating more capacity not less.

 

[irish_rail]

One would like to think so, however current experience with GWR short forming and XC fun size voyagers suggests otherwise.

 

[Mugby]

Not a chance! If anything, 2024 will get steadily worse with increasing demand and no extra capacity in the foreseeable future.

It's a good job we are perhaps the most apathetic nation on earth!

 

[Mikw]

Yep, overcrowded trains with no real sign of increased capacity. They'll be even more reduced capacity when some 3x2 seating configiration trains are reduced to 2x2.
I'd also worry about a narrative forming over infrastructure deficiencies too.

 

[Phil R]

Yep, overcrowded trains with no real sign of increased capacity. They'll be even more reduced capacity when some 3x2 seating configiration trains are reduced to 2x2.
I'd also worry about a narrative forming over infrastructure deficiencies too.

That means improved comfort for those who still get a seat them, particularly those who are no longer the bread in a 3 sandwich.

 

[py_megapixel]

They'll be even more reduced capacity when some 3x2 seating configiration trains are reduced to 2x2.

This is generally done because it increases capacity, sacrificing some seats in return for space for more passengers to stand, not the other way round.

In any case, I can't think of any rolling stock in the UK at the moment with 3+2 seating that seems a likely candiate for an interior refit in the next year, apart from the GWR Turbos, where the process has already started and doesn't involve changing the seating configuration at all.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This is generally done because it increases capacity, sacrificing some seats in return for space for more passengers to stand, not the other way round.

In any case, I can't think of any rolling stock in the UK at the moment with 3+2 seating that seems a likely candiate for an interior refit in the next year, apart from the GWR Turbos, where the process has already started and doesn't involve changing the seating configuration at all.

However West Midlands Trains are replacing their 3+2 seated stock (350/2s) with 2+2 seated stock (730/2s), and similarly the 323s with 730/0s. Having said that, 3+2 seated 24m vehicles are far too narrow for the middle seat to be useful anyway.

 

[GalaxyDog]

Don't forget planned capacities will be further crippled with the idioteque TOCs who have adopted CAF DMUs with all their shortcomings~!

 

[Blindtraveler]

I certainly am not holding out much hope for any tangible increases next year although I have welcome to open arms the reintroduction of this second st pancreas high speed path through the Medway towns on the December timetable change which we'll hopefully spread capacity out a bit more on services both to there and also Victoria

In terms of long distance I've had enough crap experiences this year to convince me that flying is the answer and if local to mid distance journeys become unbearably overcrowded and overpriced then I'll simply find another way of making them

 

[Rail Quest]

Given the increasing numbers of passengers and reductions in capacity over 22/23, next year hopefully the narrative will change back to creating more capacity not less.

Perhaps it'll depend on a TOC by TOC basis. For example - I'm expecting TfW's overcrowding to get a bit better in 2024 once the 197 deployment is complete provided TfW then manage to utilise the units well.

However, I can't see GWR getting better at all and am expecting them to get worse thanks to talks about perhaps withdrawing their HSTs with no replacement on the already at capacity regional services. With their 165/166 maintenance situation deteriorating, there's not much hope for 2024 in GWR IMO.

 

[birchesgreen]

WMR will get worse when the 730s replace the 323s, much less seating capacity per train, though of course more space to stand. The uber lords of this forum have decided that mere comfort is irrelevant and we must stand like cattle in our trains.

 

[yorksrob]

The running narrative of the past couple of years has been withdrawal and hasty disposal of rolling stock without adequate replacement. I can't see this changing for the timebeing.

 

[irish_rail]

Perhaps it'll depend on a TOC by TOC basis. For example - I'm expecting TfW's overcrowding to get a bit better in 2024 once the 197 deployment is complete provided TfW then manage to utilise the units well.

However, I can't see GWR getting better at all and am expecting them to get worse thanks to talks about perhaps withdrawing their HSTs with no replacement on the already at capacity regional services. With their 165/166 maintenance situation deteriorating, there's not much hope for 2024 in GWR IMO.

Re GWR I think your right. Even if more 150s and 158s materialise which may happen in next 2 years or so, all this does is release more 5 car IETS to supposedly reduce short forms on intercity services. The problems with 10 car sets (2x5 car) are well known, what is really needed is additional carriages to create more 9 car sets, not an increased reliance on 2x5 car sets which will always find ways of not materialising.

 

[RailWonderer]

The problems with 10 car sets (2x5 car) are well known

Other than crowds not being spread throughout properly and likely short forms, what are the problems with 10? I’ve been following GWR threads regularly and some people point out the kitchens and cab ends eat into capacity but that’s all I can think of. 10 cars is better than 5.

 

[AndrewE]

I would expect more overcrowding: the Birmingham Liverpool trains have gone back to 2 an hour (apart from around midday)... but the ones I saw yesterday were all 4-car sets!
Operation Princess all over again... make the (already busy 8-car) service look more attractive but don't provide any extra seating.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I'm hopeful the media get a bee in their bonnet about overcrowding, maybe a panorama program will trigger it or something so the government gets put under pressure to change tact

 

[Turtle]

That means improved comfort for those who still get a seat them, particularly those who are no longer the bread in a 3 sandwich.

Quite. 3x2can be horrible, particularly on a medium or longer journey. It should be banned.

I'm hopeful the media get a bee in their bonnet about overcrowding, maybe a panorama program will trigger it or something so the government gets put under pressure to change tact

I'd like to agree with you but most of the media are either apathetic or appear culturally hostile to the railway.

 

[Rail Quest]

I would expect more overcrowding: the Birmingham Liverpool trains have gone back to 2 an hour (apart from around midday)... but the ones I saw yesterday were all 4-car sets!
Operation Princess all over again... make the (already busy 8-car) service look more attractive but don't provide any extra seating.

I agree with this entirely. I hadn't realised the plan for the doubling of frequency for the Birmingham-Liverpool diagrams was, in many cases at the expense of capacity on each train. And given one of the two services skips out on Acton Bridge/Hartford/Winsford - users at those stations theoretically loose capacity. I wouldn't be too bothered by the change if both 2 trains per hour stopped at those stations (as I live near Hartford and would prefer greater frequencies on the line) but given how I've had two Saturdays in recent months with LNWR cancelling three trains to Hartford in a row, leaving us having to change plans significantly to get home, I'm not impressed with the change myself haha.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Quite. 3x2can be horrible, particularly on a medium or longer journey. It should be banned.

3+2 basically serves no purpose now it has been established that narrow 2+2 with standbacks and/or longitudinal seating is far more effective for carrying very large numbers of passengers.

There isn't an awful lot of it left, but it'd certainly be my view that where it remains (e.g. those awful 720s) the third seat should be removed. It looks like this would be fairly easily done on the 720 as it's just attached to the other two which are cantilevered the same on both sides of the aisle, I don't know about other stock like 323s.

 

[py_megapixel]

3+2 basically serves no purpose now it has been established that narrow 2+2 with standbacks and/or longitudinal seating is far more effective for carrying very large numbers of passengers.

The one purpose it does still serve, if I recall, is covering up electrical equipment that was put under the seats because it was assumed when the stock was designed that the layout would always be 3+2!

I hope the 720s haven't been designed like that - I assume not as other Aventrae have different configurations

 

[irish_rail]

Other than crowds not being spread throughout properly and likely short forms, what are the problems with 10? I’ve been following GWR threads regularly and some people point out the kitchens and cab ends eat into capacity but that’s all I can think of. 10 cars is better than 5.

Because quite simply, ever since we have had booked 10 car trains we have suffered short forms. Something else will come along meaning yet again short forms. At present the Swansea route is suffering terribly. When we get the extra 5 car sets back then I suspect we will go back to 10 cars on the Penzance route again, and this route will then suffer when issues arrive. And to say issues won't arrive is naive in the extreme in my view, their is always something.
Also, it's surprising how much driver workload is involved with the double sets, I say this as someone who sometimes works nights at Laira depot. The 10 cars are simply a pain compared with 9s. Ultimately, far more drivers are required and this trickles down to the fare paying passenger and the ticket price (or in the current case its the staff who lose out as we are supposedly the ones who are unproductive and thus cannot justify a payrise!)

I've no doubt, in an ideal world GWR would get lots more 9 car sets and fewer 5s though I concede we need to be pragmatic as GWR just isn't seen as as important as LNER or Avanti by Dft.

 

[Blindtraveler]

I remember writing on here near enough a decade ago that ordering five car units would result in all of these issues and many more besides and being shouted down by many a keyboard warrior and armchair expert. It's giving me no satisfaction whatsoever to be proved absolutely spot on about this

 

[irish_rail]

I remember writing on here near enough a decade ago that ordering five car units would result in all of these issues and many more besides and being shouted down by many a keyboard warrior and armchair expert. It's giving me no satisfaction whatsoever to be proved absolutely spot on about this

I'd mirror this. I remember all the comments about how all the little trains splitting and joining will open up new journey opportunities, and yet away from LNER and Wales, I haven't seen a single one. And yet ironically LNER has managed to hog the vast bulk of the full length trains!

 

[yorksrob]

There'll be a big factory in Darlington going spare at some stage in the future. Might be an opportunity to build some extra carriages.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

There'll be a big factory in Darlington going spare at some stage in the future. Might be an opportunity to build some extra carriages.

Said factory might need to be prepared to be flexible on pricing, though, judging from some recent comments on here?

 

[yorksrob]

Said factory might need to be prepared to be flexible on pricing, though, judging from some recent comments on here?

I should imagine that if you're a factory with lots of workers to keep occupied, its better to have them doing some paid work, even at a bargain price.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

I should imagine that if you're a factory with lots of workers to keep occupied, its better to have them doing some paid work, even at a bargain price.

I would fully agree - so I have to wonder why they have apparently hiked the price up so much that orders are going elsewhere?

 

[yorksrob]

Hoping for some grant funding perhaps ?

 

[JonathanH]

I should imagine that if you're a factory with lots of workers to keep occupied, its better to have them doing some paid work, even at a bargain price.

I'm not sure it works like that in practice.

They could equally shut the factory, move the equipment somewhere else, and not need to pay out much to the workers beyond the redundancy payments.

It certainly wouldn't be a rational decision to enter into a loss making contract just to keep a factory open.

 

[Starmill]

Hoping for some grant funding perhaps ?

Grants for what? Paid for by whom?