This is a bit of a hybrid infrastructure / rolling stock thread. Different aspects of this have been discussed in different threads. I don't want this to end up another whinge about pacers and North/South divide. I am interested in the numbers! On the assumption that all pacers are scrapped by 2020 and no new DMU order is made, how much (if any electrification) would be needed to have enough rolling stock? If so, which lines would be the most likely to be electrified to free up DMUs? My understanding is that there will be enough express DMUs and loco hauled sets and that the shortage will be for services that currently uses pacers and slower sprinters. Are there any "low hanging fruit" lines were allot of them are used and would be worth considering electrifying just to free up DMUs?
ATW has 15 pacers which are likely to be replaced by Valley lines electrification. FGW has 8 and are likely to have preferential treatment over Northern when DMUs become available and will be given 8 sprinters to replace the pacers. Northern Rail needs to replace 102 Pacers, leaving 125 Class 150s, 153s, 155s and 156s plus however many DMUs that can be obtained from other parts of the country. I have divided Northern Rail services into three groups, those that have no chance of electrification, those that might and those that are being electrified. There is a tendency on the forum to want to electrify everything now, which can't happen! However, I think its possible that the government will fund a few hundred million of extra electrification in order to replace the pacers and avoid a DMU order.
No chance:
Manchester Victoria/Airport - Wigan Wallgate/Southport/Kirkby,
Leeds - Morecambe/Lancaster
Colne - Blackpool South,
Cumbrian Coast,
Newcastle - Hexham/Middlesbrough,
Bishop Auckland/Darlington - Saltburn,
Middlesbrough - Hexham,
Manchester Victoria - Clitheroe
Manchester Piccadilly - Buxton
Preston - Ormskirk,
Newcastle - Carlisle,
Helsby - Ellsemere Port,
Middlesbrough - Whitby,
Middlesbrough - Carlisle
As a rough guess I estimate that these services need about 40 DMUs including spares. If the 153s are converted back into Class 150s to make sure there is enough capacity on rural lines then that would leave about 76 Northern DMUs left over for use on the more popular lines.
Some chance:
Chester - Manchester Piccadilly via Altrincham,
Manchester Piccadilly - New Mills Central/Rose Hill Marple/Sheffield
Leeds - Sheffield/York,
Metrocentre & Newcastle - Morpeth & Chathill,
Hull - York/Huddersfield
Leeds - Harrogate/York/Manchester Victoria (stopper)/Huddersfield/Sheffield/Wakefield Westgate - Huddersfield,
Sheffield - Scunthorpe/Lincoln
Manchester Victoria - Leeds/Selby,
Leeds/Wakefield Kirkgate - Knottingley
Leeds-Goole
Any ideas on the capacity needed for these lines? How many suitable DMUs could be obtained from other TOCs? Id guess that TPE should (eventually!) be able to obtain enough 158s, 170s and if necessary loco hauled sets to run its services. However, I doubt enough suitable DMUs can be found from Valley Lines, GW and MML electrification for Northern Rail by 2020 if 135 pacers are taken out of the equation. I think the Calder Valley and nearby lines would be a good option. Allot of slow Northern Rail services could be switched to EMUs and as a bonus, Grand Central would be able to switch to EMUs freeing up 10 Class 185s.
Electrification planned:
Liverpool Lime Street - Manchester Victoria/Manchester Oxford Road/ Wigan North Western/ Blackpool North/Warrington Bank Quay,
Huddersfield - Manchester Victoria,
Blackpool North - Manchester Victoria,
Preston - Hazel Grove
ATW has 15 pacers which are likely to be replaced by Valley lines electrification. FGW has 8 and are likely to have preferential treatment over Northern when DMUs become available and will be given 8 sprinters to replace the pacers. Northern Rail needs to replace 102 Pacers, leaving 125 Class 150s, 153s, 155s and 156s plus however many DMUs that can be obtained from other parts of the country. I have divided Northern Rail services into three groups, those that have no chance of electrification, those that might and those that are being electrified. There is a tendency on the forum to want to electrify everything now, which can't happen! However, I think its possible that the government will fund a few hundred million of extra electrification in order to replace the pacers and avoid a DMU order.
No chance:
Manchester Victoria/Airport - Wigan Wallgate/Southport/Kirkby,
Leeds - Morecambe/Lancaster
Colne - Blackpool South,
Cumbrian Coast,
Newcastle - Hexham/Middlesbrough,
Bishop Auckland/Darlington - Saltburn,
Middlesbrough - Hexham,
Manchester Victoria - Clitheroe
Manchester Piccadilly - Buxton
Preston - Ormskirk,
Newcastle - Carlisle,
Helsby - Ellsemere Port,
Middlesbrough - Whitby,
Middlesbrough - Carlisle
As a rough guess I estimate that these services need about 40 DMUs including spares. If the 153s are converted back into Class 150s to make sure there is enough capacity on rural lines then that would leave about 76 Northern DMUs left over for use on the more popular lines.
Some chance:
Chester - Manchester Piccadilly via Altrincham,
Manchester Piccadilly - New Mills Central/Rose Hill Marple/Sheffield
Leeds - Sheffield/York,
Metrocentre & Newcastle - Morpeth & Chathill,
Hull - York/Huddersfield
Leeds - Harrogate/York/Manchester Victoria (stopper)/Huddersfield/Sheffield/Wakefield Westgate - Huddersfield,
Sheffield - Scunthorpe/Lincoln
Manchester Victoria - Leeds/Selby,
Leeds/Wakefield Kirkgate - Knottingley
Leeds-Goole
Any ideas on the capacity needed for these lines? How many suitable DMUs could be obtained from other TOCs? Id guess that TPE should (eventually!) be able to obtain enough 158s, 170s and if necessary loco hauled sets to run its services. However, I doubt enough suitable DMUs can be found from Valley Lines, GW and MML electrification for Northern Rail by 2020 if 135 pacers are taken out of the equation. I think the Calder Valley and nearby lines would be a good option. Allot of slow Northern Rail services could be switched to EMUs and as a bonus, Grand Central would be able to switch to EMUs freeing up 10 Class 185s.
Electrification planned:
Liverpool Lime Street - Manchester Victoria/Manchester Oxford Road/ Wigan North Western/ Blackpool North/Warrington Bank Quay,
Huddersfield - Manchester Victoria,
Blackpool North - Manchester Victoria,
Preston - Hazel Grove