Is it time for a change of government and change of strategy?

[4141]

I think most of them have now been released. The others have yet to be caught.

Have ten upticks for that one...

 

[MikeWM]

I deeply regret to say that the entire left slate of the Labour party (Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Long-Bailey, Burgon, etc.) have decided to get behind the Zero-Covid madness.

https://twitter.com/socialistcam/status/1303755885244809216

The Government's approach to fighting Coronavirus has been a disaster. It's harming both public health and the economy. We need a different approach. It's time for a 'zero Covid' plan to eliminate the virus - as others like New Zealand have successfully done.

It is less than a year since I supported these people and voted for them in the General Election Everyone has gone mad, it seems.

 

[HSTEd]

I deeply regret to say that the entire left slate of the Labour party (Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Long-Bailey, Burgon, etc.) have decided to get behind the Zero-Covid madness.

Well for them, economics are just something that happens to rich people.

 

[MikeWM]

Well for them, economics are just something that happens to rich people.

Worst thing is that they mention (correctly) that the current mess is hurting the economy, but then go and reach entirely the wrong conclusion

 

[HSTEd]

Worst thing is that they mention (correctly) that the current mess is hurting the economy, but then go and reach entirely the wrong conclusion

They haven't come to terms with the idea that lots of people are going to die either way.

They still believe there is some hollywood happy ending that can be achieved just by trying hard enough to eliminate it.

 

[MikeWM]

They haven't come to terms with the idea that lots of people are going to die either way.

Unfortunately it seems society as a whole can't cope with that. As Johnson quite correctly said in his rather good speech back on March 12th

I must level with you, level with the British public, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.

but this caused so much unreasoned backlash that we went wrong immediately thereafter, and have never recovered

(The whole speech is worth a re-read to remind ourselves where we were just 6 months ago : https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-12-march-2020)

 

[trebor79]

Unfortunately it seems society as a whole can't cope with that. As Johnson quite correctly said in his rather good speech back on March 12th

I must level with you, level with the British public, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.

but this caused so much unreasoned backlash that we went wrong immediately thereafter, and have never recovered

(The whole speech is worth a re-read to remind ourselves where we were just 6 months ago : https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-12-march-2020)

I share the sentiment, I actually thought they started off fairly sensibly. Problem is BJ is a populist and flinches from hard messages and hard decisions. They really should have stuck with the initial strategy rather than flicking to the fantasy world that inflicting an economic crash the likes of which we've never imagined will somehow lead to sunlit uplands with the virus "beaten".
There's another very pertinent line from that speech:

We can also act to stretch the peak of the disease over a longer period so that our society is better able to cope.

In the event, due to the '"save" every life at any cost' strategy we quickly appeared to adopt, the peak was collapsed, not stretched. The irony of course being that these lives have not been "saved", those vulnerable people are still vulnerable, and they will come into contact with it sooner or later. Society is not coping, and society will cope even less with mass unemployment and a punitive national debt burden.

For me, the speech at the start of lockdown where BJ talked about 12 weeks "to send this virus packing" was the point where it became clear that realism had departed.

The more I think about all of this the angrier I get.

 

[Huntergreed]

Nicola Sturgeon again emphasising how important it is to suppress and eliminate COVID before we are able to return to normal. She said that doing nothing “is not an option” otherwise thousands of lives will be lost and hospitals will be overwhelmed. She’s saying a second lockdown is definitely “possible” in winter but she’s urging us to follow the rules now to prevent this from being necessary.

How depressing

 

[brad465]

Some Tory MPs have come out attacking the Government's lack of Parliamentary scrutiny, including Sir Desmond Swayne, who's very sceptical of restrictions:

'Rule of six': Tory MPs criticise new rules in England

One ex-minister says it was "outrageous" new rules were made "without consultation" of Parliament.

www.bbc.co.uk

Some Tory MPs have criticised England's latest coronavirus rules that legally ban gatherings of more than six people.

Ex-minister Steve Baker said the action amounted to "arbitrary powers without scrutiny" and MP Desmond Swayne said it was "outrageous" not to have a Parliamentary debate.

BBC Newsnight understands some MPs want the rules to be reviewed more often.

The health secretary says the new rules in England will not be kept in place "any longer than we have to".

 

[Bletchleyite]

Some Tory MPs have come out attacking the Government's lack of Parliamentary scrutiny, including Sir Desmond Swayne, who's very sceptical of restrictions:

'Rule of six': Tory MPs criticise new rules in England

One ex-minister says it was "outrageous" new rules were made "without consultation" of Parliament.

www.bbc.co.uk

What would help is someone in Parliament who supports restrictions but opposes the process. I see no reason they should not now follow normal Parliamentary process, nothing is as rushed as it was.

 

[trebor79]

Nicola Sturgeon again emphasising how important it is to suppress and eliminate COVID before we are able to return to normal. She said that doing nothing “is not an option” otherwise thousands of lives will be lost and hospitals will be overwhelmed. She’s saying a second lockdown is definitely “possible” in winter but she’s urging us to follow the rules now to prevent this from being necessary.

How depressing

Crikey. Why do they believe in this nonsensical approach? I can't believe the scientific advisers are complicit in this. She's right that doing nothing is not an option, but attempting elimination is also not an option. Whatever happened to flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming healthcare whilst allowing the epidemic to burn itself out?
Even assuming elimination can be done, as New Zealand and other places demonstrate, you just end up with a tinder-box ready to reignite without warning. It achieves nothing other than economic destruction, misery, damaged prospects and many more deaths from untreated acute and chronic conditions.

 

[DB]

I deeply regret to say that the entire left slate of the Labour party (Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Long-Bailey, Burgon, etc.) have decided to get behind the Zero-Covid madness.

https://twitter.com/socialistcam/status/1303755885244809216


It is less than a year since I supported these people and voted for them in the General Election Everyone has gone mad, it seems.

Have they not noticed that New Zealand actually haven't done that?

Among all the approving comments on that tweet, there are at least a few making the same points as many on here - not everyone has fallen for the hype!

It's hard not to conclude tha Corbyn & co are just looking for a position to differentiate themselves from the Tories and the current Labour leadership, and unfortunately they were boiund to go in this direction as for some reason the left seems overall very pro-mask.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Have they not noticed that New Zealand actually haven't done that?

To be fair I don't think "zero COVID" actually means that, it means taking strong measures to suppress to near-zero each time it pops up but more normal life in between.

Actually getting rid is more often known as an elimination strategy.

 

[MikeWM]

Have they not noticed that New Zealand actually haven't done that?

Apparently not. Baffling.

It's hard not to conclude tha Corbyn & co are just looking for a position to differentiate themselves from the Tories and the current Labour leadership, and unfortunately they were boiund to go in this direction as for some reason the left seems overall very pro-mask.

One of the main reasons I was a Corbyn supporter was that he (and McDonnell, Abbott, etc) had a long and excellent prior record on civil liberties and state overreach matters (opposing ID cards, 90-day detention, etc.)

All that good work now thrown away when it really matters. Very depressing.

I really don't understand why the left are so pro-mask on the whole, either. I am starting to wonder if I've been backing the wrong horse for years. (Not that I like the look of the other horses much either).

 

[Yew]

Unfortunately it seems society as a whole can't cope with that. As Johnson quite correctly said in his rather good speech back on March 12th

I must level with you, level with the British public, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.

but this caused so much unreasoned backlash that we went wrong immediately thereafter, and have never recovered

(The whole speech is worth a re-read to remind ourselves where we were just 6 months ago : https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-12-march-2020)

I honestly think that this is the quote that killed herd immunity as a strategy.

 

[DB]

To be fair I don't think "zero COVID" actually means that, it means taking strong measures to suppress to near-zero each time it pops up but more normal life in between.

Actually getting rid is more often known as an elimination strategy.

In practice, they seem to be deliberately using the 'zero COVID' term as a euphemism for elimination, while retaining enough deniability that it makes it harder to challenge it! Certainly, most supporters of extreme measures seem to be regarding it as meaning elimination.

 

[MikeWM]

I honestly think that this is the quote that killed herd immunity as a strategy.

Quite possibly so, but if we demand honesty from our politicians and then revolt when they unusually actually give us some, then we probably deserve to end up with the lying liars we get

 

[jtuk]

The Tories could probably recover if they chucked out Johnson, Hancock and Williamson right now, admitted they've over played Covid, ended all restrictions and asked us to just be sensible Sweden-style, and apologised. What they won't recover from is this continual digging, people might forgive the party if they hold their hands up and clean house, but won't forget if the mass unemployment, mass death toll and continued erosion of civil liberties which are the result of their current actions carries on

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Tories could probably recover if they chucked out Johnson, Hancock and Williamson right now, admitted they've over played Covid, ended all restrictions and asked us to just be sensible Sweden-style, and apologised. What they won't recover from is this continual digging, people might forgive the party if they hold their hands up and clean house, but won't forget if the mass unemployment, mass death toll and continued erosion of civil liberties which are the result of their current actions carries on

If I was them I'd certainly be paying attention to the number of times the Daily Mail, a staunchly Tory paper, has been dissing them over the past few weeks.

The Express remains on side, but for how long?

 

[Richard Scott]

Nicola Sturgeon again emphasising how important it is to suppress and eliminate COVID before we are able to return to normal. She said that doing nothing “is not an option” otherwise thousands of lives will be lost and hospitals will be overwhelmed. She’s saying a second lockdown is definitely “possible” in winter but she’s urging us to follow the rules now to prevent this from being necessary.

How depressing

She'll then want Westminster to bail Scotland's economy out before conveniently forgetting that and going on about independence.

 

[Huntergreed]

She'll then want Westminster to bail Scotland's economy out before conveniently forgetting that and going on about independence.

Correct, she keeps calling for an extension of Furlough for another 6 months (up to 2 years) so that we can eliminate it.

She has also implied that if furlough ends, she'd rather cause the redundancies than change strategy and stop trying to eliminate it.

It's madness

 

[Bletchleyite]

Can she not do furlough herself, or doesn't she have the funds?

 

[scotrail158713]

Can she not do furlough herself, or doesn't she have the funds?

I think we all know the answer to that.
It’d certainly be interesting to see how she dealt with that if somebody from the press actually asked her on one of the briefings.

 

[backontrack]

At this point, it honestly feels like anything, that anybody does, or that anyone suggests, is just going to be rife with uncertainty.

The government will do their own thing. They might wobble and waver; they may well pull out, or readjust, or do one thing or another. Whatever they do probably won't make so much difference; much of public is already 'over' the pandemic. The real moonshot is a second lockdown, and the whether-or-not of that will be what the debate boils down to, eventually.

In the meantime, Boris will mop his brow and sputter like an egg frying in a pan, Whitty will sadly implore us to not spike again, and Brexit will continue to hover by our shoulders like some Poeian raven. We'll stutter grimly on through the next few watery months with no real plan, because it's all just words now, and abstract concepts, and maxims. COVID has lost its immediacy, except for the bereaved.

The fundamentals won't change. The government should, but the damage was done a long time ago now. We can't become Germany. The illusion of control has slipped away.

Furlough ends next month. Aside from that, it's anybody's guess.

 

[adc82140]

What's become quite apparent is that the public are tiring of being ordered around and effectively threatened with lockdown each day. The important messages have been lost in the noise.

We have "flattened the curve" successfully. That was the original aim of lockdown, was it not? No one ever spoke originally of taking the curve away.

If we must pursue the aim of further suppression, then there are three important points that need to be made. Wash your hands. Keep your distance. If you are ill you must isolate. The French have made isolation more palatable by saying it's 7 days, not 14, but that it will be enforced strictly. I find it staggering that T&T fail to find 30% of people who test positive. Who the heck goes for a test and doesn't try to find out the results?

Everything else is noise that distracts and confuses the population, and decreases compliance with the important rules.

 

[radamfi]

In other countries unemployment benefit is typically paid out for a year or more, and you get paid a substantial portion of your last salary. Isn't this more or less the same as the UK furlough scheme, except you have to look for another job?

 

[backontrack]

What's become quite apparent is that the public are tiring of being ordered around and effectively threatened with lockdown each day. The important messages have been lost in the noise.

We have "flattened the curve" successfully. That was the original aim of lockdown, was it not? No one ever spoke originally of taking the curve away.

If we must pursue the aim of further suppression, then there are three important points that need to be made. Wash your hands. Keep your distance. If you are ill you must isolate. The French have made isolation more palatable by saying it's 7 days, not 14, but that it will be enforced strictly.

Everything else is noise that distracts and confuses the population, and decreases cimiance with the important rules.

The worry is that the curve will need to be flattened again.

I do agree that a stripped-back, conciser, CLEARER set of messages would accomplish more in reducing transmissions than the present revolving door of absolute slosh, even if that'd mean relaxing things. Nobody knows what the hell we're supposed to be doing (masks excepted) anymore; it's just distracting noise, so much that you wonder if it's deliberately so. It helps drive us into forgetting it all, after all.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The worry is that the curve will need to be flattened again.

I do agree that a stripped-back, conciser, CLEARER set of messages would accomplish more in reducing transmissions than the present revolving door of absolute slosh, even if that'd mean relaxing things. Nobody knows what the hell we're supposed to be doing (masks excepted) anymore; it's just distracting noise, so much that you wonder if it's deliberately so. It helps drive us into forgetting it all, after all.

Isn't that what the "rule of 6" was all about?

 

[Richard Scott]

The worry is that the curve will need to be flattened again.

I do agree that a stripped-back, conciser, CLEARER set of messages would accomplish more in reducing transmissions than the present revolving door of absolute slosh, even if that'd mean relaxing things. Nobody knows what the hell we're supposed to be doing (masks excepted) anymore; it's just distracting noise, so much that you wonder if it's deliberately so. It helps drive us into forgetting it all, after all.

Why does it need flattening again? The only thing we need to worry about is hospital admissions and they're not exactly high at the moment and unlikely to be as most of the infected are now younger compared to the situation in March which was older and already frail people. As long as hospitals can cope we really should stop fussing about infections, especially as we're doing more testing. What do people expect to find if you test more?

 

[trebor79]

Furlough ends next month. Aside from that, it's anybody's guess.

50 quid says BJ and Rishi get pressured into extending it.