Is the UK economy "two speed"

[yorksrob]

They simply have no answer to imported inflation.

Until the country becomes more self-sufficient, this will happen again and again.

 

[Magdalia]

i’d argue the UK isnt red or green, but by its tax bands.

Lower rate are hurting (but they always are).
40%’s A lot are feeling it, the rest are going to really feel it soon, once their spare funds are depricated.
Those on higher rate… those are the true greens.

That only looks at income. The wealth dimension is also important. Basic rate taxpayers can be comfortably in the green team if they own their own home, have savings, and/or good access to credit. This particularly applies to retired people who have paid off their mortgages and have a good occupational pension.

On the other hand, full time employees paying higher rate tax can still end up in the red team especially if they have overextended on their mortgage or credit cards. One of the least noticed features of tax policy in recent years is the fiscal drag drawing more people into higher rate tax because the threshold has not been uprated.

For a family to move from a red to a green status, it is likely going to take several generations plus lots of hard and more importantly smart long term decisions.

My biggest concern about my green team/red team analysis is that it looks far easier to slip out of the green team into the red team than to go the other way. And a lot of it is down to luck. Ill health, family break up and other traumatic events can all shove people out of the green team and into the red team.

Going the other way will be people in the right place at the right time to ride the wave of technological change, or those who make canny career choices to go into jobs that aren't going away. Demography means that people of working age are going to be in short supply.

How is productivity going in the UK (i.e. per capita output)?

In Australia, it's been declining: not good.

Badly, little change since the 2008 crash. But with a competent government that can be turned round, if the UK can take advantage of its new strengths in, for example, life sciences and renewable energy. The key to productivity growth is not to squeeze marginal gains out of existing workers but to shift resources (particularly people) out of low productivity industries into high productivity industries. That's why I keep banging on about the Cambridge Biomedical Campus!.

 

[Sm5]

My biggest concern about my green team/red team analysis is that it looks far easier to slip out of the green team into the red team than to go the other way. And a lot of it is down to luck. Ill health, family break up and other traumatic events can all shove people out of the green team and into the red team.

unfortunately thats neither a British problem or a new one, the world rolls like this

Badly, little change since the 2008 crash. But with a competent government that can be turned round, if the UK can take advantage of its new strengths in, for example, life sciences and renewable energy. The key to productivity growth is not to squeeze marginal gains out of existing workers but to shift resources (particularly people) out of low productivity industries into high productivity industries. That's why I keep banging on about the Cambridge Biomedical Campus!.

The answer to that is confidence. The UK populace and British industry has been shy of confidence ever since 2008.
The country has been very risk averse, even with record low interest rates, industry hasnt invested and modernised.
It certainly has retracted considerably from the global stage, consolidated domestically settled and bought houses.
The global jobs that existed in 2008, became European jobs and since 2020 became domestic jobs.

The global manager became a European manager, became a UK manager whilst maintaining that 2008 global salary which has stagnated and inflated away ever since all the while becoming less productive. That in turn makes it harder for the next generation to work up that managerial tree, because those above are consolidating downwards as the tree is cut shorter.

if we want to increase productivity we need to go global, because the domestic market is too saturated with 2008 level skills and a too competitive domestic market.

The risk is with the current model, a lot of people in mid40’s upwards could find themselves unemployable very soon if the UK market implodes… which is what since 2008 everyones been afraid of, and hence holding back investment and consolidating... thus straining the younger age groups.

Since 2008 we have had 4 once in a hundred year events.. Crash, Austerity, Brexit, Covid, with a more recent low level threat of a wider european war… that took 30 years in 1900’s, weve done it in half the time this time, so now wonder confidence is low.

of these two events were largely unique to the UK (our over exposure to the US and Brexit),both which socked the countries finances. We also failed to capitalise on covid (morally nice but economically bad compared to the profits made in other countries, did anyone ever thank us for that generosity ?). The problem is when we do invent some IP, the race to a return throttles its growth, and the result is we sell it over seas for a quick buck, rather than harvesting it at home.

 

[Broucek]

@Magdalia makes an excellent point about fiscal drag. The £100k threshold for gradual removal of the personal allowance hasn't moved and the 45% rate threshold actually went down recently. Meanwhile, industrial numbers of people are now in the 40% bracket who cannot remotely be labelled as "high earners", especially in the South East of England.

 

[Sm5]

@Magdalia makes an excellent point about fiscal drag. The £100k threshold for gradual removal of the personal allowance hasn't moved and the 45% rate threshold actually went down recently. Meanwhile, industrial numbers of people are now in the 40% bracket who cannot remotely be labelled as "high earners", especially in the South East of England.

cynic in me thinks it wont move either.

Its going to be very brave to suggest removing the 60% tax bracket between £100k-£125k, when so many on the lowest rate are struggling. Its the lowest rate who tend to vote, have the stronger voice and influence.

Thats the problem with our politics, from election day its a battle of survival for an MP, rather than about good governance.
we should be encouraging higher salaries, with it comes greater confidence, which in turn puts a less risk averse mindset and encourage investment to support it requiring a stronger hunter rather than harvester mentality when it comes to survival at the top… if not it all fails and falls down (which is where I think we are going on my post 1 page back).

 

[brad465]

unfortunately thats neither a British problem or a new one, the world rolls like this


The answer to that is confidence. The UK populace and British industry has been shy of confidence ever since 2008.
The country has been very risk averse, even with record low interest rates, industry hasnt invested and modernised.
It certainly has retracted considerably from the global stage, consolidated domestically settled and bought houses.
The global jobs that existed in 2008, became European jobs and since 2020 became domestic jobs.

The global manager became a European manager, became a UK manager whilst maintaining that 2008 global salary which has stagnated and inflated away ever since all the while becoming less productive. That in turn makes it harder for the next generation to work up that managerial tree, because those above are consolidating downwards as the tree is cut shorter.

if we want to increase productivity we need to go global, because the domestic market is too saturated with 2008 level skills and a too competitive domestic market.

The risk is with the current model, a lot of people in mid40’s upwards could find themselves unemployable very soon if the UK market implodes… which is what since 2008 everyones been afraid of, and hence holding back investment and consolidating... thus straining the younger age groups.

Since 2008 we have had 4 once in a hundred year events.. Crash, Austerity, Brexit, Covid, with a more recent low level threat of a wider european war… that took 30 years in 1900’s, weve done it in half the time this time, so now wonder confidence is low.

of these two events were largely unique to the UK (our over exposure to the US and Brexit),both which socked the countries finances. We also failed to capitalise on covid (morally nice but economically bad compared to the profits made in other countries, did anyone ever thank us for that generosity ?). The problem is when we do invent some IP, the race to a return throttles its growth, and the result is we sell it over seas for a quick buck, rather than harvesting it at home.

In summary, the economic system is broken but nobody wants to/is capable of doing anything about it.

 

[Sm5]

In summary, the economic system is broken but nobody wants to/is capable of doing anything about it.

Its requires something we dont have…

$, instead we have debts.

The US did actually publish what it wants from a UK trade deal way back in 2019… what the US wants is a nirvana of a trade deal and if agreed in full would be the most one sided and most advantageous trade deal to the US ever negotiated… which is probably why we dont have one, and why its been so politely shelved.

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Summary_of_U.S.-UK_Negotiating_Objectives.pdf

I am of the opinion the US (and others) have calculated that the UK has left itself exposed post Brexit. We are surviving off savings. Once those have gone our taps are going to go a bit dry, and credit interest.. well its already going high.

like when playing monopoly and landing on someones hotel…. If the UK hits a 1970s style economic event, the UK government may need to ask for IMF funds at which point a lot of very lucrative assets in the UK suddenly become a Monopoly board sell off.

Thats when the trade deals suddenly come, along with the offers of investment with strings attached and I suspect that US document will remain their chief negotiating starting point. Of course I would imagine China, the EU, and yes even Russia would probably also come with their own offers too.

avoiding this maybe why the government is trying to slow down the economy, reign in inflation and getting everyone to agree to being a bit poorer and paying more tax than before Brexit. I also suspect the govt overplayed travel restrictions during covid as a means to keeping money in the country and supporting the economy delaying the Brexit pain we are having now. certainly other countries had less restrictions than the Uk had.


of course the flip side, is we do well…

lowest hanging fruit right now is AI, Electric cars, Sustainable energy, defence, in which case we should borrow to invest.
Taking AI for one example…
There is actually a huge amount we can gain from AI. Whilst the US is going to own and regulate access to the tech, it should be imo at the centre of a trade deal for access. Theres going to be a 1990’s style industry shift to modernisation using AI based APIs and Cloud compute modernisation. Embracing this and going global will see us lead the race ( europe is always slower to adopt, Americans always focus domestically first).. We are going to need to organise ideas into businesses, businesses into skills, sales and marketing. Supported by legal and services… Think back to the 1990’s and the rush to have a website..its going to be a gold rush to adopt AI… which is about building new software products and services.

The drag here is adoption, I think conventional IT is going to become uninvestable and in some cases out right abandoned very soon… everyone stopped buying camera films overnight when we went digital… our problem is we dont have enough AI skills, enough global leaders, enough money to invest…this is where focus may be needed.

However cleverly, we should be regulating sale of such companies and IP overseas, where investment is put in, whilst having a maximal approach to supporting sale of AI developed products overseas.

The world is moving up a gear, its getting more expensive, but the rewards are bigger and we could become sustainable at a new higher price point. If we dont move forwards.. more people may very soon move from green to red and we end up a buyer of software from other countries and continue sliding down… like in any goldrush, the money isnt in panning for gold, its making shovels to sell to those panning for gold… its today its called services.

As for making car batteries, its a way of keeping greens out of red but lets not kid ourselves that we are going to be a world leader making batteries faster, cheaper and more efficiently than China with lower pay, conditions, less laws on pollution, zero tolerance of protestors and huge amounts of spare cash to invest…business will always pick lowest cost and wrap it up in a green box.

 

[RT4038]

That only looks at income. The wealth dimension is also important. Basic rate taxpayers can be comfortably in the green team if they own their own home, have savings, and/or good access to credit. This particularly applies to retired people who have paid off their mortgages and have a good occupational pension.

On the other hand, full time employees paying higher rate tax can still end up in the red team especially if they have overextended on their mortgage or credit cards. One of the least noticed features of tax policy in recent years is the fiscal drag drawing more people into higher rate tax because the threshold has not been uprated.


My biggest concern about my green team/red team analysis is that it looks far easier to slip out of the green team into the red team than to go the other way. And a lot of it is down to luck. Ill health, family break up and other traumatic events can all shove people out of the green team and into the red team.

Going the other way will be people in the right place at the right time to ride the wave of technological change, or those who make canny career choices to go into jobs that aren't going away. Demography means that people of working age are going to be in short supply.

Not just canny career choices, but canny lifestyle choices too. With owning your own home being such an important component of being in the green team, need to be focusing on that from the moment you start studying for GCSEs. Do you need to go to University - will the job you'll get really pay back the loan? Live at home for a few years; work hard, overtime, two jobs if necessary. Low or no spending on drink, drugs, cigarettes, entertainment, fast cars (if you still want, do these things once you're well in the green team). Don't get (your girl) pregnant at 17. As soon as is sensible, buy your first house. Get a couple of lodgers for the first few years to help pay down the mortgage. Don't overextend on the mortgage in case of rate increases. Have some luxuries, but all things in moderation. Settle down for family later, once you're in or well towards the green team. Prudence and hard work early on in your life, accession to the green team and you're probably made (catastrophies excepted of course) . I realise not everyone is dealt all these cards in life, but you have to work with what you've got. If you're talking about work/life balance in your 20s then you're probably not going to make it, without inheritance or lotto win! All of this just in general; obviously there are numerous variations.

 

[Sm5]

Not just canny career choices, but canny lifestyle choices too. With owning your own home being such an important component of being in the green team, need to be focusing on that from the moment you start studying for GCSEs. Do you need to go to University - will the job you'll get really pay back the loan? Live at home for a few years; work hard, overtime, two jobs if necessary. Low or no spending on drink, drugs, cigarettes, entertainment, fast cars (if you still want, do these things once you're well in the green team). Don't get (your girl) pregnant at 17. As soon as is sensible, buy your first house. Get a couple of lodgers for the first few years to help pay down the mortgage. Don't overextend on the mortgage in case of rate increases. Have some luxuries, but all things in moderation. Settle down for family later, once you're in or well towards the green team. Prudence and hard work early on in your life, accession to the green team and you're probably made (catastrophies excepted of course) . I realise not everyone is dealt all these cards in life, but you have to work with what you've got. If you're talking about work/life balance in your 20s then you're probably not going to make it, without inheritance or lotto win! All of this just in general; obviously there are numerous variations.

Agreed.

The green team is about money. Its that simple.
No one gets to the green team by being nice, or accepting a job with oddball perks.

What you sacrifice to get to green is a personal choice, and of course if you stop chasing the dream, or get older and someone younger over takes you, them you could go back to red.

The question those in green have to ask is if the hard work, taxation, resentment and the thought of getting old seeing it stripped away from verses someone having a less wealthy life, having less risks, accepting a certain level who when they get older, sit next to you for free being paid for by the money you are paying to the care home to be there worthwhile ?

Bearing in mind that green is not super wealthy, its probably only moderately more than those who are in red… wealth differentials in the UK isnt billions and millions, its probably only tens of thousands for most people.

 

[railfan99]

Not just canny career choices, but canny lifestyle choices too. With owning your own home being such an important component of being in the green team, need to be focusing on that from the moment you start studying for GCSEs. Do you need to go to University - will the job you'll get really pay back the loan? Live at home for a few years; work hard, overtime, two jobs if necessary. Low or no spending on drink, drugs, cigarettes, entertainment, fast cars (if you still want, do these things once you're well in the green team). Don't get (your girl) pregnant at 17. As soon as is sensible, buy your first house. Get a couple of lodgers for the first few years to help pay down the mortgage. Don't overextend on the mortgage in case of rate increases. Have some luxuries, but all things in moderation. Settle down for family later, once you're in or well towards the green team. Prudence and hard work early on in your life, accession to the green team and you're probably made (catastrophies excepted of course) . I realise not everyone is dealt all these cards in life, but you have to work with what you've got. If you're talking about work/life balance in your 20s then you're probably not going to make it, without inheritance or lotto win! All of this just in general; obviously there are numerous variations.

This is sensible advice: I give similar to my children. It applies across the so-called "developed" Western world.

 

[RT4038]

The green team is about money. Its that simple.

Agreed

No one gets to the green team by being nice, or accepting a job with oddball perks.

That is not right. You can do all the things in my post #38 and still be nice. What you can't do, unless your parents/family are already in the green team and you inherit [either through death or 'on account'], is get to the green team without sacrifice. Staying there may also require sacrifice too. It has to be said that there is an element of 'luck of the draw', being in the right place at the right time etc.

What you sacrifice to get to green is a personal choice, and of course if you stop chasing the dream, or get older and someone younger over takes you, them you could go back to red.

The question those in green have to ask is if the hard work, taxation, resentment and the thought of getting old seeing it stripped away from verses someone having a less wealthy life, having less risks, accepting a certain level who when they get older, sit next to you for free being paid for by the money you are paying to the care home to be there worthwhile ?

There are always going to be red team members (there can't be a green team without the red team!). One has to be careful not to imply criticism of the lifestyle choices of people - but if you've chosen (or not made the canny decisions) the lifestyle of the red team, then please don't criticise the green team and covert their position. And I appreciate that some of the canny 'decisions' which enable green team membership are not entirely within your control (unexpected redundancy, family break up, romantic emotions, illness etc), but these are cards that life deals and have to be played accordingly. Life is not always fair.

Well yes, the green team can ask that of themselves, and no doubt some do. They can always blow it all and go to the red team, if they wish to take the risk. Guess not many do.

 

[yorksrob]

It comes down to a discussion we had a couple of weeks ago about the housing situation. People would have more appetite to take entrepreneurial risks that a Western society demands if they didn't have the very close risk of losing their home.

As it is, the current system of mortgages is tantamount to 21'st century feudalism with the banks as the lords of the manor.

 

[E27007]

Agreed


That is not right. You can do all the things in my post #38 and still be nice. What you can't do, unless your parents/family are already in the green team and you inherit [either through death or 'on account'], is get to the green team without sacrifice. Staying there may also require sacrifice too. It has to be said that there is an element of 'luck of the draw', being in the right place at the right time etc.


There are always going to be red team members (there can't be a green team without the red team!). One has to be careful not to imply criticism of the lifestyle choices of people - but if you've chosen (or not made the canny decisions) the lifestyle of the red team, then please don't criticise the green team and covert their position. And I appreciate that some of the canny 'decisions' which enable green team membership are not entirely within your control (unexpected redundancy, family break up, romantic emotions, illness etc), but these are cards that life deals and have to be played accordingly. Life is not always fair.

Well yes, the green team can ask that of themselves, and no doubt some do. They can always blow it all and go to the red team, if they wish to take the risk. Guess not many do.

The path to the Green team is the one I followed, from the day i finished higher education / started working , my main objective a house and zero debts and cash positive, "if I cannot pay in cash I cannot afford it"
The Red team:, a good number of my work colleagues are straddling the Red / Green line, their earning and savings funds "bailing out" the spending of their Red Team adult offspring.

So additional advice for the Green team is do not marry, just follow the "Men Going Their Own Way (MGTOW)" path too

 

[railfan99]

What I really like about this forum is there's a lot one learns. There are very few nasty comments. On a non-railway blog in Australia that I read, there is the latter (a lot).

One difference from comments is you blokes seem to have the option of a 35 year mortgage: in Oz, AFAIK, max. is 30.

 

[RT4038]

It comes down to a discussion we had a couple of weeks ago about the housing situation. People would have more appetite to take entrepreneurial risks that a Western society demands if they didn't have the very close risk of losing their home.

But then you're not exactly taking much entrepreneurial risk then! You could put your home in the name of your wife (possibly a risk in itself), but this will considerably reduce the size of capital that can be raised, and therefore the scope of the entrepreneurial activity. Of course it is best if you are only risking other people's money, but that is not how it works really. Risking your home is really going to show and ensure your commitment and therefore lighten the risk on the other people's money you have been lent.

T
The Red team:, a good number of my work colleagues are straddling the Red / Green line, their earning and savings funds "bailing out" the spending of their Red Team adult offspring.

So additional advice for the Green team is do not marry, just follow the "Men Going Their Own Way (MGTOW)" path too

I would not subscribe to this advice - your spouse may well be a contributor to your green team status, and spreads the risk if you become incapacitated later. My advice would be to take canny decisions on when to marry, who to marry (not necessarily their financial status, but do they think like you?) and on the influencing, and treatment of, your offspring, recognising that one is not entirely in control of any of this! These canny decisions are not exactly being taken in the cold light of day; there will be an element of fate involved.

Whilst not marrying may eliminate an area of risk, it may also eliminate great joy and happiness. Canny decision making is key.

 

[yorksrob]

But then you're not exactly taking much entrepreneurial risk then! You could put your home in the name of your wife (possibly a risk in itself), but this will considerably reduce the size of capital that can be raised, and therefore the scope of the entrepreneurial activity. Of course it is best if you are only risking other people's money, but that is not how it works really. Risking your home is really going to show and ensure your commitment and therefore lighten the risk on the other people's money you have been lent.


I would not subscribe to this advice - your spouse may well be a contributor to your green team status, and spreads the risk if you become incapacitated later. My advice would be to take canny decisions on when to marry, who to marry (not necessarily their financial status, but do they think like you?) and on the influencing, and treatment of, your offspring, recognising that one is not entirely in control of any of this! These canny decisions are not exactly being taken in the cold light of day; there will be an element of fate involved.

Whilst not marrying may eliminate an area of risk, it may also eliminate great joy and happiness. Canny decision making is key.

True, but this also assumes that you have enough capital in a home to risk in the first place.

It would also be interesting to see what proportion of successful businesses are started by people taking a huge personal risk (as with the home) as opposed to those who have a large capital sum that they can "risk", but without much overall risk to their personal wellbeing.

Could it be that we fetishise this idea of the great risk taker, risking destitution to get ahead, when in fact most economic advancement is achieved when people aren't risking their roof.

 

[Broucek]

What I really like about this forum is there's a lot one learns. There are very few nasty comments. On a non-railway blog in Australia that I read, there is the latter (a lot).

Yes, it's one of the best forums I've seen in terms of "I disagree, tell me more" rather than the more typical "I disagree and you're clearly a reprehensible person" - particularly for the "general" topics rather than UK-rail specific

Sadly the business models for news and social media is predicated on argument, conflict and anxiety rather than insight and discourse!

It would also be interesting to see what proportion of successful businesses are started by people taking a huge personal risk (as with the home) as opposed to those who have a large capital sum that they can "risk", but without much overall risk to their personal wellbeing.

Could it be that we fetishise this idea of the great risk taker, risking destitution to get ahead, when in fact most economic advancement is achieved when people aren't risking their roof.

Anecdotally, there is usually a fair degree of risk! And financial risks are not the only risks. There is a lot of mental and emotional anxiety and hard work to starting and running a business. I know people in my own field who started their own companies - they make perhaps 2x to 3x more money that me but work far, far harder (and I like to think that I'm not a complete slacker!).

 

[yorksrob]

Anecdotally, there is usually a fair degree of risk! And financial risks are not the only risks. There is a lot of mental and emotional anxiety and hard work to starting and running a business. I know people in my own field who started their own companies - they make perhaps 2x to 3x more money that me but work far, far harder (and I like to think that I'm not a complete slacker!).

Yes, I expect that's true !

 

[RT4038]

True, but this also assumes that you have enough capital in a home to risk in the first place.

Well yes, or your entrepreneurship has to be directed towards a non capital intensive project, of which many, many people have gone down that road.

It would also be interesting to see what proportion of successful businesses are started by people taking a huge personal risk (as with the home) as opposed to those who have a large capital sum that they can "risk", but without much overall risk to their personal wellbeing.

But where has this large capital sum come from then? Inheritance [death or 'on account']? Yes, some people have this dealt with them in life, and some don't. Some get to retirement age and their parent(s) is/are still alive. Some parents go into a nursing home and the inheritance is gone. Life.
Lots of entrepreneurs risk their house. Some it pays off, some a disaster, some neutral, and everywhere in between.

I am not really sure what is the point you are trying to make? Not everyone has the appetite for risk or the skill to be an entrepreneur? Not everyone has the capital to be an entrepreneur in their chosen field? If it is, then yes I agree with you (me included in this category!) But being an entrepreneur is not the only way of getting into the green team.

Yes, I expect that's true !

As I have said already, you don't get into the green team without sacrifice (inheritance or lotto excepted)

 

[E27007]

I would not subscribe to this advice - your spouse may well be a contributor to your green team status, and spreads the risk if you become incapacitated later. My advice would be to take canny decisions on when to marry, who to marry (not necessarily their financial status, but do they think like you?) and on the influencing, and treatment of, your offspring, recognising that one is not entirely in control of any of this! These canny decisions are not exactly being taken in the cold light of day; there will be an element of fate involved.

Whilst not marrying may eliminate an area of risk, it may also eliminate great joy and happiness. Canny decision making is key.

I base my advice on several observations, marriage is a 50: 50 risk at best , half go to divorce within 10 years, divorce settlements are expensive and long-term (more risk) especially if children are to be supported, therefore pose a rapid fall from Green to Red team status with an uphill long-term period of recovery
The threshold for a single man to stay or enter green team can be modest, low outgoings, a small house for one, a small car, or even no car at all, modest bills, possibly only need to work part-time to remain in the green team, as for happiness, no guarantee whether married or single. But married, may have to work for a lifetime in a job you hate, due to financial needs to support a family.

 

[RT4038]

I base my advice on several observations, marriage is a 50: 50 risk at best , half go to divorce within 10 years, divorce settlements are expensive and long-term (more risk) especially if children are to be supported, therefore pose a rapid fall from Green to Red team status with an uphill long-term period of recovery
The threshold for a single man to stay or enter green team can be modest, low outgoings, a small house for one, a small car, or even no car at all, modest bills, possibly only need to work part-time to remain in the green team, as for happiness, no guarantee whether married or single. But married, may have to work for a lifetime in a job you hate, due to financial needs to support a family.

Whilst it is an option, I cannot really subscribe to advice that if followed brings human life to an end. Children can easily be raised and one still be a member of the green team, just need to make canny decisions over when and with whom. You can then give them a leg up into the green team with the inheritance.

 

[asw22]

My rent has gone up 15% each year for the past 3 years. It is a studio flat so there isn't a way to downgrade to a smaller property.

My salary since 2020 has dropped by around 20% due to a job loss in 2021 but I am just over the threshold for any form of benefits.

So to avoid going further into debt (aside from a student loan from 20 years ago) I don't drink, go on holiday or have a car.

To make ends meet I have cut down to one meal per day, often boiled spaghetti, a 90p pizza or a crisp sandwich. I walk as much as I can although I can't avoid the train travel costs to and from work.


I studied maths to degree level but due to my parents being unemployed I have only ever been able to get call centre or temp work. The only use for maths is to work out which items in shops are the best value.


I made the mistake of learning visual basic from 2014 onwards but since 2021 I have been focussing on python, SQL and powerbi. In early 2023 I paid for and completed an AI course. However employers in Leeds are not interested despite all the media fuss about AI.

I have tried listing on sites like Fiverr and contributing to StackOverflow to see whether self employment might work.
But the IT industry is saturated with expertise from all over the world.

In reality the government needs people in the red economy.
Without them who would pick up the more menial but essential work? It will highlight the handful who might make it from red to green in order to motivate those on the red side to keep working whilst fully knowing that the vast majority will never move from red to green except perhaps for a few years during retirement.

There is also a potential issue down the line. There is much debate about people having to sell their houses to pay for social care. In 20 to 30 years time when generation rent start requiring social care, what then?


I know loads of people in their 20s and 30s who will never be able to afford to have children so how do we solve issues that arise from an ageing population?

 

[Foxhunter]

Broadly I agree with pretty much everything said by RT4038 and Sm5. I can look back over a full working life and attest to the fact it's a formula that worked. By working overtime and studying for further qualifications while working did I miss out? - yes, but I got it back later on.

But I also believe that everyone in the green team is just 3 poor decisions or a crippling illness away from joining the red team. In this regard your choice of life partner is very critical; while you need to be a willing acceptor of the compromises, there are many many upsides to a shared life. A specific financial example is that when I had 6 months between jobs once in my career, my wife stepped up and worked more days for a while.

But one bit of new topic I want to introduce is the level of personal debt. I have lived my life without taking on any loans other than mortgages that I paid off in full as soon as I could. My credit card has always been paid off at the end of every month. My simple view was that if I had to borrow to buy anything other than a house, I could not afford it. I do wonder if some of the people in the red team, or headed there, are paying 20% upwards of their income on paying back loans. (For clarity, this is a genuine question, not a moralising point). If you get to that level, getting back on path towards the green team is going to defeat most people. My generation has been part of many very positive achievements in social change, but I do fear that the promotion of credit for everything has been a poor development we will regret.

 

[Simon11]

My rent has gone up 15% each year for the past 3 years. It is a studio flat so there isn't a way to downgrade to a smaller property.

My salary since 2020 has dropped by around 20% due to a job loss in 2021 but I am just over the threshold for any form of benefits.

So to avoid going further into debt (aside from a student loan from 20 years ago) I don't drink, go on holiday or have a car.

To make ends meet I have cut down to one meal per day, often boiled spaghetti, a 90p pizza or a crisp sandwich. I walk as much as I can although I can't avoid the train travel costs to and from work.


I studied maths to degree level but due to my parents being unemployed I have only ever been able to get call centre or temp work. The only use for maths is to work out which items in shops are the best value.


I made the mistake of learning visual basic from 2014 onwards but since 2021 I have been focussing on python, SQL and powerbi. In early 2023 I paid for and completed an AI course. However employers in Leeds are not interested despite all the media fuss about AI.

I have tried listing on sites like Fiverr and contributing to StackOverflow to see whether self employment might work.
But the IT industry is saturated with expertise from all over the world.

In reality the government needs people in the red economy.
Without them who would pick up the more menial but essential work? It will highlight the handful who might make it from red to green in order to motivate those on the red side to keep working whilst fully knowing that the vast majority will never move from red to green except perhaps for a few years during retirement.

There is also a potential issue down the line. There is much debate about people having to sell their houses to pay for social care. In 20 to 30 years time when generation rent start requiring social care, what then?


I know loads of people in their 20s and 30s who will never be able to afford to have children so how do we solve issues that arise from an ageing population?

Really good for you to share your experience and background. It appears that you have the degree, the potential and drive however are lacking experience, guidance and support to get you on that career ladder?

Have you venturing into Linkedin to network and build contacts?

Have you tried to find a mentor who could advise and support you find your dream role in maths or IT? Even in Leeds, there are lots of jobs in these fields- heck my firm is investing lots in AI and has a base in Leeds who are heavily recruiting. I therefore don't quite agree with your view that there is a saturation of IT specialists.

 

[railfan99]

I do wonder if some of the people in the red team, or headed there, are paying 20% upwards of their income on paying back loans. (For clarity, this is a genuine question, not a moralising point). If you get to that level, getting back on path towards the green team is going to defeat most people. My generation has been part of many very positive achievements in social change, but I do fear that the promotion of credit for everything has been a poor development we will regret.

The introduction of 'buy now, pay later' schemes in Australia (a nuanced form of previous layby of a different era, but with the difference in 2023 purchasers can obtain the goods without having totally paid the company providing the credit) has been a disaster in my nation for those that go on spend-a-thons without considering how they'll pay it back.

More regulation is forthcoming but the cat's out of the bag.

I hope it's not also a problem in the UK. Again, not moralising, but unfortunately, some individuals lack education in or prudence re financial matters.

 

[Broucek]

Again, not moralising, but unfortunately, some individuals lack education in or prudence re financial matters.

Sadly, a significant proportion of people on low incomes are not god with money and/or have poor impulse control. They also have weaker social capital to protect them from unwise decisions. To be clear, I'm saying this in sadness rather than to imply moral culpability!

 

[E27007]

Whilst it is an option, I cannot really subscribe to advice that if followed brings human life to an end. Children can easily be raised and one still be a member of the green team, just need to make canny decisions over when and with whom. You can then give them a leg up into the green team with the inheritance.

A bit too quick to assert not marrying or having children brings the human race to an end, there are plenty of reds and greens who take on the task, I'm not one of them, another aspect is the environment, people are the root cause of pollution of the environment, less people == less polution , perhaps i should be rewarded in some way for my lifestyle which does not add to levels of pollution of the planet.

 

[railfan99]

A bit too quick to assert not marrying or having children brings the human race to an end, there are plenty of reds and greens who take on the task, I'm not one of them, another aspect is the environment, people are the root cause of pollution of the environment, less people == less polution , perhaps i should be rewarded in some way for my lifestyle which does not add to levels of pollution of the planet.

This is the Club of Rome view of c.50 years ago:

Said Hanrahan - The Life and Poetry of John O'Brien

The poem "Said Hanrahan" by John O'Brien - 1st November 1921

www.boreelog.com.au

Since then, the world's population has hugely risen, but due to mankind using the intelligence God gave us to improve technology such as bringing electricity to many villagers, many have been lifted out of poverty and the planet is doing well despite the professional doomsayers (always paid handsomely) who assert otherwise.

The Great Barrier Reef's corals in my neck of the woods are healthy: see essays by former Professor, Peter Ridd.

 

[RT4038]

In reality the government needs people in the red economy.
Without them who would pick up the more menial but essential work? It will highlight the handful who might make it from red to green in order to motivate those on the red side to keep working whilst fully knowing that the vast majority will never move from red to green except perhaps for a few years during retirement.

I don't think it is Government particularly - it is society of this and virtually every other country.

There will always be red team people. But it doesn't have to be you.

A bit too quick to assert not marrying or having children brings the human race to an end, there are plenty of reds and greens who take on the task, I'm not one of them, another aspect is the environment, people are the root cause of pollution of the environment, less people == less polution , perhaps i should be rewarded in some way for my lifestyle which does not add to levels of pollution of the planet.

As I said, it is an option, but not one that I would advise. Each to his own. You are rewarded - you have to sacrifice less (work, pleasure) to become and/or remain a green team member.

 

[railfan99]

I don't think it is Government particularly - it is society of this and virtually every other country.

There will always be red team people. But it doesn't have to be you.

The UK is famous for the Industrial Revolution. Some who prospered or who were political reformers came from dirt poor, or lower middle class, beckgrounds. They never gave up, and in the process created arguably a better world.