LNER proposal to withdraw Stirling and Glasgow Central direct services: what do you think should happen?

[Fundee on Tay]

That isn't massively surprising when Edinburgh and Glasgow are similar distances from Carlisle whilst all trains from the ECML to Glasgow go via Edinburgh. Liverpool, Manchester, Preston, Penrith and Euston have ~200,000 journeys to / from Edinburgh per year, compared to fewer than 80,000 for Glasgow Central and Queen Street to / from Newcastle, York, Leeds and King's Cross (excluding those splitting tickets at Edinburgh, I'd presume).

Fewer than 80,000 on just 3 direct trains (1 x LNER, 2 x CrossCountry). Edinburgh receives a 2 hourly service down the WCML by TPE and Avanti. Yet with quadruple the services per day it is only able to achieve just over double the passengers.

There must be plenty from Motherwell, and those who change at Edinburgh from Queen Street who would like a direct service to North/East England.

Wonder if this is a case of ‘if you build it they will come’?

 

[Snex]

I might be missing something, but couldn't you go the complete opposite direction, order some 5 car bi-mode vehicles and have 10 car trains running London to Edinburgh which split towards Aberdeen and Glasgow, with them running an Aberdeen to Glasgow service inbetween as an effective triangle and replace the HST trains in the process, which need replacing anyway.

Means you'd have decent intercity trains doing the intercity routes in Scotland, even if it's a partnership between Scotrail and LNER, sharing the work (Scotrail doing North of Edinburgh and LNER doing South in terms of staff etc).

Would open up more Anglo-Scotland services.

 

[30907]

Fewer than 80,000 on just 3 direct trains (1 x LNER, 2 x CrossCountry). Edinburgh receives a 2 hourly service down the WCML by TPE and Avanti. Yet with quadruple less than half the services per day it is only able to achieve just over double the passengers.

Corrected. The 80k includes the vast majority who change at Waverley for Queen Street, and I doubt if splits distort the picture much. So 2-3 tph vs 1tph. The proportion is around WC 5 - EC 1.
Arguably there should be a through Newcastle-Glasgow service, but running it in marginal time isn't the way. Perhaps it should run from Central via Carstairs and serve East Linton and Reston - and even Chathill?

 

[A S Leib]

How far south should any Glasgow – Newcastle service go? Terminating at Newcastle makes sense when there's the current TPE Newcastle – Edinburgh services (and ScotRail's Dunbar terminators; do they serve any of the stations which otherwise just get North Berwick trains?) but having no direct services between Leeds and Glasgow seems a bit of an omission.

It is an odd coincidence that Cardiff and Glasgow are both 175 km from Leeds and that neither of the GB devolved nations' largest urban areas have regular direct trains to / from Leeds, although better connections for Cardiff would be another thread.

 

[Falcon1200]

How far south should any Glasgow – Newcastle service go?

having no direct services between Leeds and Glasgow seems a bit of an omission.

I agree, therefore any through service from Glasgow should go (at least) to Leeds, serving the major traffic centres and connectional locations of that (large) city and York, as well as Newcastle. Such services would therefore be a natural fit for Cross Country and/or Transpennine, and their 4 or 5 car trains would not be carrying as much fresh air between Glasgow and Edinburgh as GNER/LNER's trains did!

 

[30907]

How far south should any Glasgow – Newcastle service go? Terminating at Newcastle makes sense when there's the current TPE Newcastle – Edinburgh services (and ScotRail's Dunbar terminators; do they serve any of the stations which otherwise just get North Berwick trains?) but having no direct services between Leeds and Glasgow seems a bit of an omission.

Yes. It's a toss-up between TPE and XC, which might depend on which would be the better use of resources - and the answer might be neither, because a 3-car EMU might be right for the traffic

Edit: snap!

 

[Peter0124]

TPE with their 5 car 802s makes the most sense. They also have a depot at Glasgow, which I believe work down to Newcastle.

Yes. It's a toss-up between TPE and XC, which might depend on which would be the better use of resources - and the answer might be neither, because a 3-car EMU might be right for the traffic

Edit: snap!

In that case an hourly Scotrail 385! Though would it go any further south than Newcastle otherwise Scotrail would have a ton of resourcing to do. Or maybe Northern could do it with a 331.

 

[BlueLeanie]

It's a bit of a "silly o'clock" service, isn't it at 05:34?

You'd definitely get more leisure travellers if it was 07:34, more importantly better public transport to get to the station too.

Might help the service to Euston off the ground if this is withdrawn though.

 

[TheWalrus]

I always thought LNER/XC Glasgow services would be faster and better off to go via Falkirk High into Queen Street rather than Central via Motherwell? However I am assuming there is a reason this doesn’t happen?

I also think maybe the LNER services to Hull, Sunderland (as mentioned earlier on this thread was due to be withdrawn) and possibly Bradford could/should be withdrawn? Nowadays these are duplicated by OA operators to an extent so is there any need for the franchised operator to provide these links as well?

 

[greyman42]

I always thought LNER/XC Glasgow services would be faster and better off to go via Falkirk High into Queen Street rather than Central via Motherwell? However I am assuming there is a reason this doesn’t happen?

Platform lengths and capacity.

 

[Meerkat]

It is an odd coincidence that Cardiff and Glasgow are both 175 km from Leeds

Has someone put the country in a hot wash?

Must be well over 200 miles.
Is there really that much demand - what is the time comparison of Leeds to Glasgow via Newcastle vs changing at Manchester Picc onto a TPE?

 

[hexagon789]

Must be well over 200 miles.

Around 225 miles for each - so slightly over 362km.

 

[Bill57p9]

I might be missing something, but couldn't you go the complete opposite direction, order some 5 car bi-mode vehicles and have 10 car trains running London to Edinburgh which split towards Aberdeen and Glasgow, with them running an Aberdeen to Glasgow service inbetween as an effective triangle and replace the HST trains in the process, which need replacing anyway.

Means you'd have decent intercity trains doing the intercity routes in Scotland, even if it's a partnership between Scotrail and LNER, sharing the work (Scotrail doing North of Edinburgh and LNER doing South in terms of staff etc).

Would open up more Anglo-Scotland services.

I mostly agree: provide an hourly clockface through Aberdeen to London KX via Edinburgh utilising a 5 car bi-mode north of Edinburgh and add a second 5 car at Waverley for the core leg. This is simply joining two existing hourly services together to reduce friction and encourage ridership.

Something similar could be done less frequently for Inverness via Edinburgh.

Both would reduce the need for HSTs which has to be the end goal. And as has Snex points out, some more common stock could fill the Queen Street route too. You would like to think that common stock would bring economies of scale. It would certainly ease any future cascades.

Unfortunately this is firm speculative territory as it would require joined up thinking between GBR (remember them??) and Transport Scotland despite the obvious mutual benefit.

 

[A S Leib]

Has someone put the country in a hot wash?

Must be well over 200 miles.
Is there really that much demand - what is the time comparison of Leeds to Glasgow via Newcastle vs changing at Manchester Picc onto a TPE?

Around 225 miles for each - so slightly over 362km.

As the bird flies, I've got 175 miles (but I was still short; definitely not 175 km).

An off-peak single from Leeds to Glasgow Central is £66.70; splitting at Manchester Piccadilly, £84.80 (TPE only north from Manchester). Via York is 04:15; via Manchester, 04:10 so which one's faster depends on the exact timetable. Changing at Preston, Lancaster and Carlisle with 10-15 minute waits for Glasgow trains work out at 04:20 as well, although the forum isn't short of previous threads where the idea of through services from Settle to Glasgow's been raised and dismissed.

 

[hexagon789]

As the bird flies, I've got 175 miles (but I was still short; definitely not 175 km).

Admittedly I used road distance, but i suspect rail would be not too dissimilar. At least we know where the 175km came from!

Withdrawing a couple of services that cost a lot to provide, for minimal revenue, with minimal impact on passengers, to deploy that resource elsewhere for far greater revenue and to serve many more passengers is not ‘defeated’.

Given the well explained potential for use in enabling later services over the core route it does seem quite sensible to me.

 

[WAB]

I mostly agree: provide an hourly clockface through Aberdeen to London KX via Edinburgh utilising a 5 car bi-mode north of Edinburgh and add a second 5 car at Waverley for the core leg. This is simply joining two existing hourly services together to reduce friction and encourage ridership.

Something similar could be done less frequently for Inverness via Edinburgh.

Both would reduce the need for HSTs which has to be the end goal. And as has Snex points out, some more common stock could fill the Queen Street route too. You would like to think that common stock would bring economies of scale. It would certainly ease any future cascades.

Unfortunately this is firm speculative territory as it would require joined up thinking between GBR (remember them??) and Transport Scotland despite the obvious mutual benefit.

Sounds like a recipe for dire performance both sides of the border. A look at the punctuality records of the existing Aberdeens and Invernesses is very educational.

 

[deltic08]

How far south should any Glasgow – Newcastle service go? Terminating at Newcastle makes sense when there's the current TPE Newcastle – Edinburgh services (and ScotRail's Dunbar terminators; do they serve any of the stations which otherwise just get North Berwick trains?) but having no direct services between Leeds and Glasgow seems a bit of an omission.

It is an odd coincidence that Cardiff and Glasgow are both 175 km from Leeds and that neither of the GB devolved nations' largest urban areas have regular direct trains to / from Leeds, although better connections for Cardiff would be another thread.

As the crow flies maybe, but trains don't fly. Leeds-Newport has been a regular journey of mine before the M1 was extended beyond Leicester, before the M4 and M42 were thought of and before the road westwards from the end of the M50 at Ross on Wye to Newport was dualled. It was over 230 miles then but has come down to less than 230 now. Add on the miles to Cardiff and you are talking 240 miles.

 

[Fundee on Tay]

I agree with the need for Yorkshire - Glasgow traffic as mentioned by several members.

However ScotRail would be able utilise their current 385 sets for a stopping Glasgow Central - Newcastle service (essentially a merger of the Central - Waverley via Carstairs stopper, Dunbar semi-fast and TPE Edinburgh - Newcastle). This proposal has its flaws, but also benefits in that towns in East Lothian and Northumberland such as Wallyford, Cramlington and Musselburgh would be connected to Glasgow, and towns in Lanarkshire and East Lothian such as Motherwell, Wishaw and Musselburgh would be better connected to Newcastle. Better than nothing which looks probable at the moment.

This would also help TPEs reliability south of Newcastle especially given the withdrawal of Nova 3s.

 

[TheWalrus]

Platform lengths and capacity.

Can Queen Street not accommodate 9 carriages?

 

[deltic08]

Can Queen Street not accommodate 9 carriages?

Probably not. It can accommodate 2x4-car 385s but I think 9 would be too much. There may be one platform that could but would foul the points to an adjacent platform and couldn't dwell long.

 

[kaysha]

Can Queen Street not accommodate 9 carriages?

No. Under the EGIP programme the max platform length was extended to allow for 8 car 385s. If you wanted nine carriages you would be just about out into George Square.

 

[Snex]

I agree with the need for Yorkshire - Glasgow traffic as mentioned by several members.

However ScotRail would be able utilise their current 385 sets for a stopping Glasgow Central - Newcastle service (essentially a merger of the Central - Waverley via Carstairs stopper, Dunbar semi-fast and TPE Edinburgh - Newcastle). This proposal has its flaws, but also benefits in that towns in East Lothian and Northumberland such as Wallyford, Cramlington and Musselburgh would be connected to Glasgow, and towns in Lanarkshire and East Lothian such as Motherwell, Wishaw and Musselburgh would be better connected to Newcastle. Better than nothing which looks probable at the moment.

This would also help TPEs reliability south of Newcastle especially given the withdrawal of Nova 3s.

Not sure I agree with that living in Northumberland, you'd be better off just creating a whole new service and at the same time scrapping others.

There's badly a need for an hourly / two hourly, Newcastle - Manors - Cramlington - Morpeth - Pegswood? - Widdrington - Alnmouth - Alnwick - Berwick - Reston - Dunbar - East Linton - Wallyford - Musselborough - Edinburgh service. If you want to extend that to Glasgow then maybe, that's an option aswell.

The Newcastle - Morpeth bit already exists and so does Edinburgh to Dunbar (partially anyway) with the stopper and TPE service covering most hours. Obviously shared works is rare, but having it split between Northern and Scotrail, similar to some of the Tyne Valley services, would be better since there's depots at both ends and would get some Diesels off from running under the wires. Hypothetical, but improvements are badly needed at this end of the route especially at places like Widdrington, which is a sizable village, with 2 trains a day.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Not sure I agree with that living in Northumberland, you'd be better off just creating a whole new service and at the same time scrapping others.

There's badly a need for an hourly / two hourly, Newcastle - Manors - Cramlington - Morpeth - Pegswood? - Widdrington - Alnmouth - Alnwick - Berwick - Reston - Dunbar - East Linton - Wallyford - Musselborough - Edinburgh service. If you want to extend that to Glasgow then maybe, that's an option aswell.

The Newcastle - Morpeth bit already exists and so does Edinburgh to Dunbar (partially anyway) with the stopper and TPE service covering most hours. Obviously shared works is rare, but having it split between Northern and Scotrail, similar to some of the Tyne Valley services, would be better since there's depots at both ends and would get some Diesels off from running under the wires. Hypothetical, but improvements are badly needed at this end of the route especially at places like Widdrington, which is a sizable village, with 2 trains a day.

The issue with that is that Northern services to/from Morpeth are just an extension of Newcastle-Hexham-Carlise services, meaning Northern currently kills two birds with one stone by operating the same unit all the way through operating Carlise-Morpeth instead of having separate units. The extension up to Chathill used to run to Carlise pre-pandemic (I believe it only runs to Metrocenter now).

 

[Snex]

The issue with that is that Northern services to/from Morpeth are just an extension of Newcastle-Hexham-Carlise services, meaning Northern currently kills two birds with one stone by operating the same unit all the way through operating Carlise-Morpeth instead of having separate units. The extension up to Chathill used to run to Carlise pre-pandemic (I believe it only runs to Metrocenter now).

Unless plans have changed, very recently, that's getting split under the new East Coast retimetabling so it's going to be it's own separate short Morpeth to Newcastle service using Platform 1, in the future. Been quite a few complaints about the loss of the Morpeth to Metrocentre links.

 

[paul1609]

Fewer than 80,000 on just 3 direct trains (1 x LNER, 2 x CrossCountry). Edinburgh receives a 2 hourly service down the WCML by TPE and Avanti. Yet with quadruple the services per day it is only able to achieve just over double the passengers.

There must be plenty from Motherwell, and those who change at Edinburgh from Queen Street who would like a direct service to North/East England.

Wonder if this is a case of ‘if you build it they will come’?

I think the issue with the Glasgow to the ECML flows is that they are really Central Belt (West) to ECML flows. I suspect that there arent actually that many Glasgow City Centre to ECML passengers. If your Central Belt origin has a direct service to Edinburgh you are actually far better off taking that and changing to a relaitvely high frequency service at Edinburgh. This includes most of North Glasow including Queen Street and the north Clyde Coast. Once your destination is London since the WCML modernisation it doesnt really make any sense to use the ECML at all.
I get there are some origins where the Central to ECML trains are nice to have (Ayrshire etc.) but I dont think that markets big enough to justify a through service.
Strangely enough its a mirror image of why XC dont serve any of the South of London destinations anymore, (Kent, Brighton Eastbourne, gatwick Airport, Portsmouth).

 

[DanNCL]

It had predominantly hourly Newcastle services with limited extensions to Edinburgh.

1 a day to Edinburgh that ran immediately behind an LNER Edinburgh service. So of practically zero benefit to Doncaster whatsoever.

I agree with the need for Yorkshire - Glasgow traffic as mentioned by several members.

However ScotRail would be able utilise their current 385 sets for a stopping Glasgow Central - Newcastle service (essentially a merger of the Central - Waverley via Carstairs stopper, Dunbar semi-fast and TPE Edinburgh - Newcastle). This proposal has its flaws, but also benefits in that towns in East Lothian and Northumberland such as Wallyford, Cramlington and Musselburgh would be connected to Glasgow, and towns in Lanarkshire and East Lothian such as Motherwell, Wishaw and Musselburgh would be better connected to Newcastle. Better than nothing which looks probable at the moment.

This would also help TPEs reliability south of Newcastle especially given the withdrawal of Nova 3s.

The power supply, which has only just been (or about to be) upgraded, would need upgrading again for more electric trains to run there.

Not sure I agree with that living in Northumberland, you'd be better off just creating a whole new service and at the same time scrapping others.

There's badly a need for an hourly / two hourly, Newcastle - Manors - Cramlington - Morpeth - Pegswood? - Widdrington - Alnmouth - Alnwick - Berwick - Reston - Dunbar - East Linton - Wallyford - Musselborough - Edinburgh service. If you want to extend that to Glasgow then maybe, that's an option aswell.

The Newcastle - Morpeth bit already exists and so does Edinburgh to Dunbar (partially anyway) with the stopper and TPE service covering most hours. Obviously shared works is rare, but having it split between Northern and Scotrail, similar to some of the Tyne Valley services, would be better since there's depots at both ends and would get some Diesels off from running under the wires. Hypothetical, but improvements are badly needed at this end of the route especially at places like Widdrington, which is a sizable village, with 2 trains a day.

I agree. The needs of the ECML local stations in Northumberland aren’t really compatible with the intercity services which creates the situation we have now where Widdrington and other stations have a woefully inadequate service.

I can’t help thinking that Newcastle - Glasgow may be better served by bi-modes running via Carlisle, taking the path of the fast service across the Tyne Valley and same calls, then stopping at Lockerbie, Carstairs and Motherwell. Time wise if the dwell at Carlisle isn’t too long then it should be competitive with the route via Edinburgh, and by not running via Edinburgh it’d free up space on the existing Edinburgh trains for those who actually want Edinburgh or those going to Alnmouth/Berwick etc. A topic for its own thread though!

 

[Peter0124]

I Do find that Morpeth - Carlisle service quite annoying boarding at Newcastle, mainly because the train arrives on Platform 7 around 5 minutes before departure. Whereas if it was starting at Newcastle it'd probably have a longer turnaround (and not use that island).
So I am not that sad at seeing it be split.

 

[Snex]

I think the issue with the Glasgow to the ECML flows is that they are really Central Belt (West) to ECML flows. I suspect that there arent actually that many Glasgow City Centre to ECML passengers. If your Central Belt origin has a direct service to Edinburgh you are actually far better off taking that and changing to a relaitvely high frequency service at Edinburgh. This includes most of North Glasow including Queen Street and the north Clyde Coast. Once your destination is London since the WCML modernisation it doesnt really make any sense to use the ECML at all.
I get there are some origins where the Central to ECML trains are nice to have (Ayrshire etc.) but I dont think that markets big enough to justify a through service.
Strangely enough its a mirror image of why XC dont serve any of the South of London destinations anymore, (Kent, Brighton Eastbourne, gatwick Airport, Portsmouth).

Surely you're looking at this the wrong way round and the flows would be the opposite direction, ie. the North East and Yorkshire heading up to Glasgow rather than the other way round. It's the most direct route for all those journeys, which isn't comparable to Cross Country which goes around the world to the destinations South of London and wouldn't make sense. Not sure there'd be that much demand though mind.

I agree. The needs of the ECML local stations in Northumberland aren’t really compatible with the intercity services which creates the situation we have now where Widdrington and other stations have a woefully inadequate service.

I can’t help thinking that Newcastle - Glasgow may be better served by bi-modes running via Carlisle, taking the path of the fast service across the Tyne Valley and same calls, then stopping at Lockerbie, Carstairs and Motherwell. Time wise if the dwell at Carlisle isn’t too long then it should be competitive with the route via Edinburgh, and by not running via Edinburgh it’d free up space on the existing Edinburgh trains for those who actually want Edinburgh or those going to Alnmouth/Berwick etc. A topic for its own thread though!

Actually agreed with that if I had to be honest, could even join it onto the express Middlesbrough to Newcastle service and give a link for Teesside, Sunderland etc further North etc. It's definitely another topic though.

 

[markydh]

One of the reasons all the Northern services will terminate at Newcastle from all directions is to assist with reliability. Any sort of delay can screw hours worth of services up. Services round the coast pick up delays on a regular basis and it’s becoming more frequent for Boro to Hexham trains to get to Newcastle 10-15 minutes late. Obviously this delay affects the return journey as there isn’t much turnaround time at Hexham. There can be a few miles between signals on the Tyne Valley line, so you can end up with a Carlisle train following the Hexham stopper and picking up several minutes worth of delay just waiting for the signal to clear. As a consequence, Northern are taking the opportunity of a timetable rewrite to split all the services into self-contained routes, so it’s highly unlikely they would risk all this by introducing long end-to-end services as suggested above.

 

[A S Leib]

As a consequence, Northern are taking the opportunity of a timetable rewrite to split all the services into self-contained routes, so it’s highly unlikely they would risk all this by introducing long end-to-end services as suggested above.

Would the rewrite affect Bishop Auckland at all, or would services from there keep running through to Saltburn?