Lockdown "Baby Bust"

[Calthrop]

Sometimes I feel, concerning these matters, that the presumed very-extreme-Catholic view of them (what follows, likely a parody thereof even at its most extreme); might possibly have something going for it. Viz., sex exists solely and only for the purpose of procreation; to be engaged in only by married couples, and solely for that purpose, and only if genuinely wished for; and to be done, to the minimum possible to ensure pregnancy; and as far as possible, not to be enjoyed by either party. Otherwise -- in any way or shape, forget it.

 

[brad465]

Sometimes I feel, concerning these matters, that the presumed very-extreme-Catholic view of them (what follows, likely a parody thereof even at its most extreme); might possibly have something going for it. Viz., sex exists solely and only for the purpose of procreation; to be engaged in only by married couples, and solely for that purpose, and only if genuinely wished for; and to be done, to the minimum possible to ensure pregnancy; and as far as possible, not to be enjoyed by either party. Otherwise -- in any way or shape, forget it.

Unless of course you're Jacob Rees-Mogg, who proclaims to be Catholic while having 6 children (his sixth one is even called Sixtus), while also holding the "very extreme Catholic" view of not supporting abortion under any circumstances (more liberal views accept it in cases of rape and/or incest).

 

[squizzler]

The interesting thing for rail usage is that the arial of a baby is often the reason for previous urban dwelling transport users switching to a suburban motoring-centric lifestyle. I wonder if the lack of newly minted nuclear families will have a measurable effect on rail demand?

 

[brad465]

Looks like as well as a baby bust caused by lockdown, the easing of restrictions is potentially going to maintain that, with Durex reporting a large increase in condom sales, particularly in China:

Reckitt: More sex, fewer colds drive sales at Durex maker

Consumer goods giant Reckitt saw a rise in sales of its condoms in countries where lockdowns eased.

www.bbc.co.uk

Condom sales have jumped in countries including China where lockdowns are easing, says consumer goods giant Reckitt.

It reported a "double-digit" increase in Durex sales in the first quarter of 2021, compared with one year ago.

But demand for health products fell overall as fewer customers stocked up on cold and flu medicines.

Reckitt's boss pointed out that sales for Lysol and Dettol were strong as hygiene habits improved.

At the start of the pandemic last year, the firm said people were having less sex because of the coronavirus crisis, partly a "manifestation of anxiety".

Conversely, the company said sales of Durex jumped when social-distancing rules were relaxed in the summer.

In its nutrition division, which includes baby formula brand Enfa, sales in the first quarter fell 12.3%, but with hygiene sales up 21.1%, the overall sales tally for the first three months of the year stood at £3.5bn - down 1.1%.

Chief executive Laxman Narasimhan said: "Demand for Lysol and Dettol continues to be strong as consumers remain vigilant to the spread of the virus and see use of our products, and improved hygiene habits, as a way of protecting their health and regaining normality in their lives."

He said that the firm would continue to track changes in consumer behaviour and demand for different products at different stages of the pandemic.

The company reported a 16.4% decline in sales for health products like cold and flu relief products such as Nurofen or Strepsils. It estimated that cases of flu were down by as much as 90%, while consumers had already stocked up last year.

Mr Narasimhan added that in countries with few coronavirus cases and high vaccination rates, people have eased off on washing their hands or using hand sanitizers, although use was still higher than before the pandemic.

For example, sales of Dettol showed strong growth in India, which is currently dealing with soaring cases of Covid, but declined in China.

"Sexual wellness" products saw a big uptick in sales in countries like China too, as well as parts of the United States and Europe.

I was also seeing reports that the latest Chinese census could be reporting a population decline for the first time (depending on how much the regime doctors this), so this news I imagine will keep that trend going.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

Aside from anything else COVID related, I would feel extremely uneasy about bringing a new life into this world (both as it is now, and likely to be in the future). I genuinely believe the "world" is in an irreversible and sharp decline, not just about the environment etc, but society, the nature of being human, the commercialisation of everything, intangible concepts etc. To me, it is a thoroughly unpleasant and hostile planet to have the misfortune to reside upon, and perhaps in my old age I'm looking back with rose tinted spectacles, but I don't think it always was like this.

Like others in the legal sector, I have serious concerns that now governments and international bodies have had a "taste" of such restrictive power making, with large swathes of the world fully supporting that (and in some cases asking for harder restrictions!). It is almost certain that in future years to come, "lockdowns", government regulation, individual tracking etc is simply going to accelerate, and the world will never return to it's pre COVID state, although I'm sure enough carrots will be dangled to make it seem like it has.

I feel guilty at the best of times for bringing my daughter into the world, never mind any more! (Although the ammo depot is empty I suspect these days fortunately!)

 

[brad465]

In a further development to the subject of this thread, the ONS have today revealed for the first time since 1976, deaths have outnumbered births:

UK deaths outnumber births for first time in 40 years

Coronavirus led to a sharp rise in deaths last year in the UK, but birth rates have been falling for the last decade.

www.bbc.co.uk

Last year more deaths than births were registered in the UK for the first time since 1976.
In total, just over 683,000 births were registered compared with nearly 690,000 deaths.
This was only the second time deaths have outnumbered births since the late 1890s.
The coronavirus epidemic led to a sharp rise in deaths last year but birth rates have also been falling for the last decade.

The coronavirus effect​

The number of deaths in the UK has been rising in recent years, but part of that increase is due to the UK population increasing and getting older.
Last year's 13% rise in that figure is attributed by statisticians to the coronavirus pandemic.
It was the largest jump in a single year seen since World War Two, bringing death rates, the chances of any single person dying, back to levels seen in 2008.
Figures published this morning by the Office for National Statistics suggest the first lockdown had not led to a baby boom.
Birth rates in December and January, nine months after lockdown started, were sharply down on the same months one year before.
But the pandemic has affected register offices, leading to problems with birth registrations, so the ONS "urges caution" when reading meaning into these figures.

This is not entirely down to more deaths taking place than usual, but less overall births have also occurred.

 

[quantinghome]

... we are approaching the timeframe that the baby boomer generation will be dying off in far greater numbers, simply as they reach life expectancy. They were born from 1946-1964, making them around 56-75 now, so I reckon from the middle of this decade onwards the global death rate could well increase notably, most pronounced in the Western world where this generation is widespread.

It may have a national effect in some western countries, but it's certainly not a global trend. In fact the most prominent feature of the global population pyramid is a bulge of those born in the late 1980s: Age Structure - Our World in Data, which seems to be down to a peak then big reduction in the Chinese birth rate: Demographics of China - Wikipedia

 

[johnnychips]

Wasn't Sunday school invented (unofficially of course) to give married couples a little alone time?

This is intruiging, but I thought God said “on the seventh day thou shalt rest“ or something, unless He was indulging in euphemism.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Wasn't there a UK baby boom (or bust) in the Spring of 1967 which everyone claims was down to the World Cup win the previous summer?

CJ

 

[nlogax]

Bit more detail in this Standard report of lowest annual UK population rise since 2001, and deaths outnumbering births for first time since 1976.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/...se-covid-mortality-births-deaths-b942608.html

The UK population grew by an estimated 0.4 per cent in the 12 months to June 2020, the lowest annual increase since the year to mid-2001, figures revealed on Friday.
The overall size of the population in mid-2020 is likely to have stood at 67.1 million, up by 284,000 on the official estimate for mid-2019, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The slowing of the growth rate in this period is largely due to the impact of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic on mortality, the ONS said.

 

[317 forever]

Wasn't there a UK baby boom (or bust) in the Spring of 1967 which everyone claims was down to the World Cup win the previous summer?

CJ

There could therefore be another baby boom/bust in the Spring of 2022

 

[C J Snarzell]

There could therefore be another baby boom/bust in the Spring of 2022

Interestingly, several months ago, there was a relationship expert who was interviewed on one of the breakfast programmes who commented that the volume of relationships that has ended during the Covid crisis has risen due to couples being cooped up together for X number of weeks. Maybe there won't be such a baby boom after all? I know at least two friends who've come out of relationships in the last 12 months because of those very reasons. No doubt sites like Tinder and Plenty of Fish will profit from this.

CJ

 

[AlterEgo]

Good luck getting your state pension paid for, everyone.

 

[Ianno87]

Interestingly, several months ago, there was a relationship expert who was interviewed on one of the breakfast programmes who commented that the volume of relationships that has ended during the Covid crisis has risen due to couples being cooped up together for X number of weeks. Maybe there won't be such a baby boom after all? I know at least two friends who've come out of relationships in the last 12 months because of those very reasons. No doubt sites like Tinder and Plenty of Fish will profit from this.

CJ

I know of a number of people who recently had kids who would've conceived in the early part of the "cooped up" period of Lockdown 1.

But yes the main blocker now is lack of new relationships forming.

Good luck getting your state pension paid for, everyone.

But deaths are currently outweighing births - depends how long that trend continues.

 

[gnolife]

But deaths are currently outweighing births - depends how long that trend continues.

Which is going to be a problem for those of us due to retire 30-40 years from now, ifnthe number of people approximately 20 years younger is drastically lower

 

[brad465]

Good luck getting your state pension paid for, everyone.

Which is going to be a problem for those of us due to retire 30-40 years from now, ifnthe number of people approximately 20 years younger is drastically lower

This is essentially why under our current economic model (aka pyramid scheme) immigration is essential, yet those who campaign for immigration control either don't understand or, for the sake of lying for popularity, never mention what the true purpose of immigration is: to keep the top 1% getting richer through increased labour and consumption.

I'm not against immigration as a principle, but I believe it can be reduced naturally by taking away the demand, that is to stop trying to boost GDP constantly through more work and consumption of goods and services.

 

[Bayum]

Anecdotal I know; my friend is an obstetrics doctor in her specialist 1 year. There was definitely a rather large increase in the number of births at her hospital from December ‘20 onwards.

 

[johncrossley]

Good luck getting your state pension paid for, everyone.

Nobody should be relying on the state pension. Twenty years ago it was widely understood that people had to make their own provision for retirement as it was expected that the state pension would be almost worthless in the future, if indeed it still exists. However successive governments have been trying to prop up the state pension through reckless policies like the triple lock, ignoring demographic trends.

 

[Watershed]

Good luck getting your state pension paid for, everyone.

Anyone relying on getting a state pension is optimistic, to say the least.

Even if you assume it does still exist when you retire, it's frankly a pittance (despite the triple lock over the last few years).

 

[birchesgreen]

Yes i stopped taking the pension into account into my retirement planning years ago.

 

[takno]

Anyone relying on getting a state pension is optimistic, to say the least.

Even if you assume it does still exist when you retire, it's frankly a pittance (despite the triple lock over the last few years).

It's extremely easy to find yourself needing a state pension when you retire. Ive put in 8-10 grand over most of the last 10 years, and it's fair to say that the investments have done nothing.

As a society we got conned into over-saving for pensions. It literally doesn't mean anything - mostly at the minute it's all going into an investment glut that's supporting a whole wave of pointless unnovation. Realistically even if 60% of the population genuinely save enough to retire then inflation will sort it out. The idea that the bit of the population with working muscles and minds is going to work their fingers to the bone to support other people retiring before 70 is deluded.

 

[Watershed]

It's extremely easy to find yourself needing a state pension when you retire. Ive put in 8-10 grand over most of the last 10 years, and it's fair to say that the investments have done nothing.

As a society we got conned into over-saving for pensions. It literally doesn't mean anything - mostly at the minute it's all going into an investment glut that's supporting a whole wave of pointless unnovation. Realistically even if 60% of the population genuinely save enough to retire then inflation will sort it out. The idea that the bit of the population with working muscles and minds is going to work their fingers to the bone to support other people retiring before 70 is deluded.

If you have put in £10k over the last 10 years and not seen your investments increase by 50-100% (if not more), you're probably not doing it 'right'. But I digress.

 

[johncrossley]

If you have put in £10k over the last 10 years and not seen your investments increase by 50-100% (if not more), you're probably not doing it 'right'. But I digress.

Yes, it would be remarkable if the investments had done 'nothing'. Certainly you should have benefited from buying cheap units in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

I also don't see how you can 'over-save'. Having savings gives one great peace of mind and allow you to retire early if desired.

 

[takno]

Yes, it would be remarkable if the investments had done 'nothing'. Certainly you should have benefited from buying cheap units in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

I also don't see how you can 'over-save'. Having savings gives one great peace of mind and allow you to retire early if desired.

The point is that you as an individual can't oversave, but as a generation you absolutely can. We can easily tolerate a few eccentric billionaires, but if an entire generation tries to live off another one then the outcomes will be very different

 

[The Ham]

The aging population isn't anything new, in the 1820's 4/10 people where under 18 now it's 2/10.

Since 1969 the total number of children aged 10 and under has fallen by 15%, what makes that now telling is that the population has increased by 20%, so in real terms the number aged 10 and so has fallen much further than 15% (probably more likely getting close to a 30% fall).

There's many factors, the likelihood of child survival is just one, even a child born in the 1970's was getting on for double the risk of dying during childhood to those born now (both rates very low in historical terms, for instance the worst countries now for childhood mortality are lower than we'd have seen in this country about hundred years ago).

Other factors include the numbers requiring assistance in having children, as it's now becoming more common for couples to struggle (and not just those who leave it late to have children). I know of someone who was in a stint recently where they were the only parent in the group who hadn't needed significant medical assistance to conceive or during birth (the latter due to medical need, not choice). However, that's not just an isolated event, and many struggle to have children (it's still fairly rare to hear tales of those who don't manage it) and it does seem that there's starting to be more of an acceptance of it.

Many talk of automation as something to be feared (i.e. leaving loads out of work), however it is likely that as a country that we'd need it as our working population shrinks yet further.

There have been suggestions that towards the latter half of the 21st century the global population will start to fall. If that starts to happen then we'd not even be able to relay on immigration to keep things going (although being a rich country would help a little).

 

[AlterEgo]

Anyone relying on getting a state pension is optimistic, to say the least.

Even if you assume it does still exist when you retire, it's frankly a pittance (despite the triple lock over the last few years).

Nobody *relies* on getting it, but there's a good chance quite a few people reading this thread might *need* it.

Falling birth rates and a falling population is a huge concern.

 

[johncrossley]

Immigration is a more efficient way of maintaining population compared to residents having children. They are already fully grown and can be immediately placed into work. There's no need to pay for their education and upbringing.

 

[HSTEd]

Ultimately using working age immigration to avoid this demographic transition is akin to a ponzi scheme.

It just makes the problem worse and worse and you need more and more immigration to have the same impact.

We should just accept the transition and adapt to the new world, before the resulting economic dislocation gets too bad.

For one thing we should probably be winding down most in person retail in favour of far more labour efficient methods of retail.

And probably abandoning bricks as a construction material entirely.

 

[brad465]

Immigration is a more efficient way of maintaining population compared to residents having children. They are already fully grown and can be immediately placed into work. There's no need to pay for their education and upbringing.

Ultimately using working age immigration to avoid this demographic transition is akin to a ponzi scheme.

It just makes the problem worse and worse and you need more and more immigration to have the same impact.

We should just accept the transition and adapt to the new world, before the resulting economic dislocation gets too bad.

For one thing we should probably be winding down most in person retail in favour of far more labour efficient methods of retail.

And probably abandoning bricks as a construction material entirely.

Agree entirely with these. Only problem is the one's who benefit most financially from the current ways are the ones in charge of the country and the corporations lobbying those in charge to keep the status quo. Even China abandoning its birth control measures to the point someone can now have 3 children shows the system is the ultimate problem, while there's little belief this policy will actually increase births much in China.

 

[brad465]

The 2020 ONS birth report for England and Wales has been released, with a drop in registered births in 2020 of 4.1% from 2019, although they do cite delays in birth registrations due to the pandemic:

Births in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Live births, stillbirths and the intensity of childbearing, measured by the total fertility rate.

www.ons.gov.uk

2.Main points​

• There were 613,936 live births in England and Wales in 2020, a notable decrease of 4.1% from 2019.
• The total fertility rate (TFR) reached a record low in 2020, decreasing to 1.58 children per woman.
• Fertility rates decreased across all age groups.
• The stillbirth rate reached a record low for the fourth year in a row, with 3.8 stillbirths per 1,000 total births in 2020.