Lockdown effects now killing/harming more people than Covid

[Howardh]

Go to Belgium.

The limit there is 21 drinks per week, not alcohol units.

Cheers.

I've always been fond of Belgium!!

Cheers indeed!!

 

[MikeWM]

Here's the latest 'excess deaths' graph from Jamie Jenkins (statsjamie on Twitter). The black line are the 2015-2019 averages. The white line is that figure adjusted to the current demographic profile of the population (ie. we have more older people than a few years ago).




It would appear things are getting worse as time goes on The high number in week 51 of 2022 may well be partly due to the long cold snap we had, but that doesn't apply to the first two weeks of 2023. When you factor in that we should probably be seeing *below* average deaths right now, as many people died a little earlier than they otherwise would have done due to the pandemic, this looks really, really bad.

*Whatever* the cause(s) of this ongoing massive problem, I think we should all be able to agree that this data alone shows that our approach to the pandemic has clearly been a disaster.

 

[Simon11]

Here's the latest 'excess deaths' graph from Jamie Jenkins (statsjamie on Twitter). The black line are the 2015-2019 averages. The white line is that figure adjusted to the current demographic profile of the population (ie. we have more older people than a few years ago).

View attachment 127734


It would appear things are getting worse as time goes on The high number in week 51 of 2022 may well be partly due to the long cold snap we had, but that doesn't apply to the first two weeks of 2023. When you factor in that we should probably be seeing *below* average deaths right now, as many people died a little earlier than they otherwise would have done due to the pandemic, this looks really, really bad.

*Whatever* the cause(s) of this ongoing massive problem, I think we should all be able to agree that this data alone shows that our approach to the pandemic has clearly been a disaster.

I agree on your final comment there (personally), however this doesn't fully align with what is shown in the graph.

For the first 3-4 months in 2022, deaths was lower than expected. Any reasons why? Are these due to people dying earlier in the previous years?

 

[MikeWM]

For the first 3-4 months in 2022, deaths was lower than expected. Any reasons why? Are these due to people dying earlier in the previous years?

My suspicion would be that this was indeed due to the 'pandemic effect', ie. fewer winter deaths of the elderly/vulnerable in the winter 2021-2022 because more died in the previous winter of 2020-2021 due to the alpha wave of covid, some of whom may otherwise have 'hung on' for another year.

The question is why this stopped and went into reverse around May of last year. Perhaps by then we'd 'caught up' with the effect of those earlier-than-expected deaths in 2020 and 2021, but that would only imply we should have returned to the average trend. Instead we've been consistently *above* average since then.

 

[Enthusiast]

Go to Belgium.

The limit there is 21 drinks per week, not alcohol units.

Cheers.

This is a comedy photo sent to me many years ago. It shows two chaps sitting at a pavement cafe, drinking from enormous beer glasses, probably holding about ten litres each, at least. One is mopping his brow, saying to the other (who is busily guzzling his beer) "Let's have one more and then we'll head back to work!" I don't know if it is really a Belgian bar, but it could be!

 

[Razorblades]

Here's the latest 'excess deaths' graph from Jamie Jenkins (statsjamie on Twitter). The black line are the 2015-2019 averages. The white line is that figure adjusted to the current demographic profile of the population (ie. we have more older people than a few years ago).

Which is fine as theories go, if a little nebulous without a breakdown of age-standardised mortality as supporting evidence. If the bulk of the deaths are in the over-seventies, that would be persuasive. However, if the deaths in the younger age groups are elevated to a statistically significant extent throughout 2022, that does not support the ageing population theory.

 

[MikeWM]

Which is fine as theories go, if a little nebulous without a breakdown of age-standardised mortality as supporting evidence. If the bulk of the deaths are in the over-seventies, that would be persuasive. However, if the deaths in the younger age groups are elevated to a statistically significant extent throughout 2022, that does not support the ageing population theory.

I think it helps to try to remove trivial objections such as 'oh, this is just due to an increase in the elderly population'.

But agreed that the age breakdown is pretty key - if you look at EuroMomo, for example, that shows *all* age groups have statistically significant excess deaths, indeed the graph for each age range for the last few months looks almost exactly the same with a sharp peak in the last few weeks.

Compare with spring 2020 or winter 2021, where you can see the pandemic itself caused two similar sharp peaks for over 45s but almost no noticeable change for under-45s.

 

[duncanp]

I've always been fond of Belgium!!

Cheers indeed!!

If you are ever in Lille (only just over the French side of the border) I can recommend the happy hour at the Palais De La Biere opposite the Gare Lille Flandres, where from 4pm to 9pm every day they sell 50cl of beer for the price of 33cl.

 

[brad465]

Here's another for the bank of lockdown costs to remember if this is ever tried again:

Lockdowns linked to tenfold rise in child abuse imagery

A charity says its data highlights how predators took advantage of the worldwide Covid-19 situation.

www.bbc.co.uk

Imagery of young children carrying out sexual acts on camera has risen by more than tenfold since the pandemic lockdowns, new data suggests.
The Internet Watch Foundation (IWF) says its data highlights how predators took advantage of the situation.
Social media websites exploded in popularity in early 2020 when the pandemic began.
Last year the IWF logged more than 63,000 webpages showing the material compared to 5,000 before the pandemic.
"During the pandemic, the internet was a lifeline but we are only now unpacking the full effects," said IWF chief executive Susie Hargreaves.
"What is clear to us is that younger children are being pulled into abusive situations by rapacious predators, often while they are in their own bedrooms."
Overall the IWF tracks, investigates and attempts to remove hundreds of thousands of incidents of child sexual abuse material from around the internet worldwide.
The charity says it is confident that the rise in self-generated material it is seeing is because of an increase in activity, because reporting levels have remained relatively similar in recent years.

Self-generated child abuse videos and images now make up two-thirds of imagery investigated by analysts.
This refers to imagery of children sexually abusing themselves on camera while coerced by a predator over the internet.
Researchers say many of the videos are recorded or livestreamed from bedrooms or bathrooms, with sounds of a busy household in the background.
They are often done on a live chat, and recorded without the child's knowledge to be shared and sold by paedophiles.
IWF is a UK-based organisation and says it is often hard to ascertain where the children are based from the videos. However, it passes on cases to authorities if a school uniform or other identifiers are visible.
Of the imagery, which the charity estimates is of seven to 10-year-olds, more than 8,000 items contained what is classed as Category A material.
This is the most severe kind, and can include penetrative sexual activity, images involving sexual activity with an animal, or sadism.
In one video seen by IWF analysts, a nine-year-old girl is instructed by adults over an online platform to perform sex acts while in her bedroom surrounded by cuddly toys.
She is asked to perform "super dirty" dares over a webcam, and is interrupted when a presumed family member, who is oblivious to the abuse taking place, calls up to ask her to run a bath for her (presumed) little brother.
The IWF is calling on the UK government to do more to protect children through the long-delayed Online Safety Bill.
The bill is currently being amended to potentially make tech platform bosses criminally liable for any failures to prevent, identify and remove child sexual abuse and exploitation content.
But the IWF says the material it processes is coming from all over the world and most of it is not hosted in the UK.
The United States National Centre for Missing and Exploited Children did not have figures for 2022, but reported an increase of child sexual abuse material in 2021. The charity's CyberTipline received 29.4 million reports, up from 21.7 million in 2020.

 

[nw1]

Looking at the really quite shocking post above, as time passes, it is becoming more and more apparent what the quite serious side effects of lockdown were.

I do wonder whether we would have had lockdown at all had Covid not started in a country ruled by an authoritarian regime such as the Chinese "Communist" Party; it almost seems as if the rest of the world followed the CCP's lead.

 

[DustyBin]

Looking at the really quite shocking post above, as time passes, it is becoming more and more apparent what the quite serious side effects of lockdown were.

I do wonder whether we would have had lockdown at all had Covid not started in a country ruled by an authoritarian regime such as the Chinese "Communist" Party; it almost seems as if the rest of the world followed the CCP's lead.

They absolutely did IMHO. As I’ve stated previously, it’s enough to make one question whether the CCP knew exactly what it was doing.

 

[Razorblades]

Esther McVey at least is asking a question in the Commons about proper investigation into the run-rate of excess deaths in the UK:

 

[VauxhallandI]

So her answer to the question of excess of deaths nothing to do with covid is that there was a rise in deaths with covid?

 

[Razorblades]

So her answer to the question of excess of deaths nothing to do with covid is that there was a rise in deaths with covid?

Even better is the assertion that as it's happening in each of Scotland, Wales AND N.I too, then it's nothing to be concerned about because it's universal. The Bradford - Hill criteria for causation have been met by her own admission of the above, so it's now time for an official enquiry into the UK-wide (not to mention global) phenomenon of excess mortality.

Stunning silence from the Chief Medical Officer, Chief Scientific Officer and the Prime Minister. Funny how we're running these levels of unexplained deaths and no-one says anything, contrast with the nightly (and lesser) death toll proclaimed on live TV during March - July 2020....

 

[bramling]

Esther McVey at least is asking a question in the Commons about proper investigation into the run-rate of excess deaths in the UK:

Full marks to McVey for asking the pertinent question. As one might expect, the minister didn’t have a clue when it came to the answer.

It’s rather disturbing the political leaders don’t seem to have even noticed this issue, let alone have any plan for what to do.

 

[greyman42]

Even better is the assertion that as it's happening in each of Scotland, Wales AND N.I too, then it's nothing to be concerned about because it's universal. The Bradford - Hill criteria for causation have been met by her own admission of the above, so it's now time for an official enquiry into the UK-wide (not to mention global) phenomenon of excess mortality.

Stunning silence from the Chief Medical Officer, Chief Scientific Officer and the Prime Minister. Funny how we're running these levels of unexplained deaths and no-one says anything, contrast with the nightly (and lesser) death toll proclaimed on live TV during March - July 2020....

Why aren't the media, who did all the shouting about the so called covid death toll, covering this?
They were fawning over the Chief Medical Officer, Chief Scientific Officer etc for their words of wisdom during the pandemic so why not ask them about possible excess deaths?

 

[Eyersey468]

Why aren't the media, which did all the shouting about the so called covid death toll, covering this?
They were fawning over the Chief Medical Officer, Chief Scientific Officer etc for their words of wisdom during the pandemic so why not ask them about possible excess deaths?

It's because it isn't Covid so doesn't matter to them

 

[Razorblades]

It's because it isn't Covid so doesn't matter to them

The repercussions of whatever it actually is will matter a huge amount to each of them, reputationally. They need to be well away from the action by the time of any such study. I think we'll see distraction follow distraction to keep attention away from the excess death causes. Whether that's the royal people, net zero, distant wars or gender ideology.

 

[greyman42]

The repercussions of whatever it actually is will matter a huge amount to each of them, reputationally. They need to be well away from the action by the time of any such study. I think we'll see distraction follow distraction to keep attention away from the excess death causes. Whether that's the royal people, net zero, distant wars or gender ideology.

Apart from the war in Ukraine, the rest of what you mentioned are non stories so you would hope people are not daft enough to fall for that one.

 

[bramling]

Apart from the war in Ukraine, the rest of what you mentioned are non stories so you would hope people are not daft enough to fall for that one.

Being cynical, these excess deaths don’t give people the opportunity for freeby time off work, days at the beach, new Range Rovers paid for by the taxpayer, discount dinners, et cetera, so it simply isn’t a salient issue.

That absolutely doesn’t excuse the failure of the politicians and scientists to tackle what is an extremely serious issue, likewise the media.

 

[Razorblades]

Being cynical, these excess deaths don’t give people the opportunity for freeby time off work, days at the beach, new Range Rovers paid for by the taxpayer, discount dinners, et cetera, so it simply isn’t a salient issue.

That absolutely doesn’t exclude the failure of the politicians and scientists to tackle what is an extremely serious issue, likewise the media.

I think it is for a number of people: the increasing numbers of injured and bereaved for starters, plus the ripple-effect seeded by these into family groups, communities, workplaces and so on. Irrespective of underlying cause/ trigger, the sheer quantity of cardiac events, to cite the most obvious example, is now fuelling a growing degree of unease, leading to discontent.

There's a horrible 'Animal Farm' feel to this now. Every morning, the animals assemble for their daily briefing; they notice that another of the pigs isn't present today, look slightly nervously at one another, but say nothing, and carry on like before.

 

[bramling]

I think it is for a number of people: the increasing numbers of injured and bereaved for starters, plus the ripple-effect seeded by these into family groups, communities, workplaces and so on. Irrespective of underlying cause/ trigger, the sheer quantity of cardiac events, to cite the most obvious example, is now fuelling a growing degree of unease, leading to discontent.

I agree it’s coming, and will probably be a massive thing in a year or so (especially if the current trends continue). Not sure we’re there yet though, it’s still a niche issue, though as you say one which continues to ripple out.

There's a horrible 'Animal Farm' feel to this now. Every morning, the animals assemble for their daily briefing; they notice that another of the pigs isn't present today, look slightly nervously at one another, but say nothing, and carry on like before.

The whole thing is very Animal Farm. Indeed we reached that point very early on, when no.10 were imposing laws on the wider population which they evidently didn’t feel the need to follow themselves. Theresa May, to her credit, made a very astute question to Johnson in PMQs, the same one where Blackford also made a good performance regarding the Sue Gray report.

 

[DustyBin]

This is brilliant.... "EBM evangelist" no less!

Who needs evidence based medicine when all that's needed is to #bekind etc.!

https://mobile.twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1620881103333789697

OK this is very funny and makes an important scientific point. Small quibble: the engineer might be a woman but hey the thread is still worth RTing. For those who don’t know, Vinay Prasad is an EBM evangelist who thinks everything should be tested in a RCT.

 

[TPO]

Even better is the assertion that as it's happening in each of Scotland, Wales AND N.I too, then it's nothing to be concerned about because it's universal. The Bradford - Hill criteria for causation have been met by her own admission of the above, so it's now time for an official enquiry into the UK-wide (not to mention global) phenomenon of excess mortality.

Stunning silence from the Chief Medical Officer, Chief Scientific Officer and the Prime Minister. Funny how we're running these levels of unexplained deaths and no-one says anything, contrast with the nightly (and lesser) death toll proclaimed on live TV during March - July 2020....

That's not the only thing there has been a stunning silence about.

The Cochrane review on the use of "non clinical interventions" has been published. The abstract is here: https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD006207.pub6/full and you can download the full pdf for free.

Authors conclusions (from the Abstract page linked):

"There is uncertainty about the effects of face masks. The low to moderate certainty of evidence means our confidence in the effect estimate is limited, and that the true effect may be different from the observed estimate of the effect. The pooled results of RCTs did not show a clear reduction in respiratory viral infection with the use of medical/surgical masks. There were no clear differences between the use of medical/surgical masks compared with N95/P2 respirators in healthcare workers when used in routine care to reduce respiratory viral infection. Hand hygiene is likely to modestly reduce the burden of respiratory illness, and although this effect was also present when ILI and laboratory‐confirmed influenza were analysed separately, it was not found to be a significant difference for the latter two outcomes. Harms associated with physical interventions were under‐investigated"

So in summary, masks were probably pointless and the best option would be good hand hygiene (which was funnily enough the advice at the very start before politricks and vested interests got involved). Oh, and no-one has really bothered to look at harms caused.

Given that Cochrane reviews are widely accepted as the "Gold standard" in peer-reviewed medicine, I'd say the findings are rather important, I wonder why the NHS plus the BBC and other media are not shouting the findings from the rooftops? [yeah I know it was never about evidence ]

TPO

 

[Markdvdman]

Well it was published on twitter by Andrew Bridgen on twitter showcasing Ivor Cummings video and the tossers going against him are believing the lies of the BBC. Frightening when you think about it