Midlands Connect case for direct trains between Coventry, Leicester and Nottingham

[jfowkes]

You cannot cross on the flat. There is no way of getting from P1 or 2 at Nuneaton across the job and P1 and 2 at Nuneaton are the only ones accessible from Cov. The only platform that can get to/from Leicester on the WCML is P5.

I'm confused then, what's all the discussion about including a Nuneaton stop in the service if it's impossible? Have I completely misunderstood things?

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm confused then, what's all the discussion about including a Nuneaton stop in the service if it's impossible? Have I completely misunderstood things?

The proposal involved building new infrastructure, which might make it possible (or might not, depending on the option). The point being that the good folk of Nuneaton may be less welcoming of a large amount of construction activity and potential disruption if all they get out of it is to be able to watch some trains within sight of their station, use a bypass line (rather slowly) en route from Leicester to Coventry.

It’s all irrelevant though, as this isn’t going to happen any time soon. It’s a long way down the list of priorities for the West Midlands.

 

[The Planner]

I'm confused then, what's all the discussion about including a Nuneaton stop in the service if it's impossible? Have I completely misunderstood things?

Its not impossible and you can do it now but its messy as you have to go up to Abbey Jn, reverse and head towards Leicester. Thats time and capacity consuming (you could easily get off the train and walk over to the Leicester platforms by the time it does that).

If they build the dive under then they have to decide whether it faces Cov, Nuneaton or both. If it faces Cov then a Nuneaton stop is impossible or requires a similar time consuming reversal.

 

[BasildonBob]

Roughly how long would a reversal add to the dwell time?

 

[Bald Rick]

Roughly how long would a reversal add to the dwell time?

When it used to happen ‘in the old days’ of the Leicester - Coventry service, the dwell was typically 5 minutes.

 

[BasildonBob]

When it used to happen ‘in the old days’ of the Leicester - Coventry service, the dwell was typically 5 minutes.

Thanks. Not ideal but perhaps acceptable?

 

[zwk500]

Thanks. Not ideal but perhaps acceptable?

It'll be longer than 5 mins difference between the direct chord and the reversal though, as you've got the additional run time into the station, the dwell at Nuneaton, then the run to Abbey Jn and the 5' reversal there before the run back towards Hinkley.

The chord is probably a 2-3' SRT, a reversal at Abbey Jn could easily be 10-13' between the two ends of the chord (1/2' into Nuneaton + 1' Dwell, 1/2' up to Abbey Jn + 5' RM, 2/3' to junction with Hinkley end of chord)

 

[Bald Rick]

It'll be longer than 5 mins difference between the direct chord and the reversal though, as you've got the additional run time into the station, the dwell at Nuneaton, then the run to Abbey Jn and the 5' reversal there before the run back towards Hinkley.

The chord is probably a 2-3' SRT, a reversal at Abbey Jn could easily be 10-13' between the two ends of the chord (1/2' into Nuneaton + 1' Dwell, 1/2' up to Abbey Jn + 5' RM, 2/3' to junction with Hinkley end of chord)

Agreed, I was just using the dwell itself. Even if the underpass was built in the direction of Nuneaton, it would be a minimum of 7-8 minutes extra than if the underpass was built in the direction of Coventry.

All irrelevant though, it’s not going to happen!

 

[zwk500]

All irrelevant though, it’s not going to happen!

Agreed!

 

[DJ_K666]

I live in Rugby and getting to Leicester by train is an absolute sod

 

[The Ham]

I live in Rugby and getting to Leicester by train is an absolute sod

Whilst this proposal may not be the best use of money, is also not likely to be too crazy a use either.

If, as a country, we wish to get to net zero then we need to do something about increasing the ability to use rail to link between places (especially where the amount of works are limited as it can use existing lines).

The more routes which are easier to go by rail the less need there is due people to own cars.

Whilst this one scheme may not have a significant impact on that front, if other similar (fairly easy to implement, with fairly low risk, at least compared to a new line) schemes are also progressed then the cumulative effect could be fairly significant.

As to passenger numbers, given that since the 1990's rail use had doubled, what at the time may have been a train with 40 people on (assuming a pair of coaches that's not even 30% full, so lots of pairs of seats and maybe a few table seats with just one person), even if assume +50% that's over 40% full.

Whilst that's still not overly busy, it does show that just the change in expectation in rail use could mean that there's enough demand that it's worth considering.

With the advent of online travel planners it's likely that any such new service could get spotted sooner but those who would benefit from it (again reducing the risk).

The other thing to consider (and although I've been to Nuneaton several times for work purposes, I'm not local enough to know) is could this have other benefits, such as for freight or for possibly allowing XC to run extra services that way from (say) Reading to ease their significant capacity constraint to more services (i.e. Birmingham)?

If (and it would probably require other schemes) the latter was possible it could improve frequency of XC services South of Coventry whilst also improving connections between parts of the East Midlands and parts of the South East. (To be clear I'm not saying that this must happen, rather could there be other benefits which could come about from this scheme?).

 

[Robertj21a]

There's certainly a lot of chatter on here about something that seems very expensive for what little it achieves, particularly as it's (rightly) so low in any list of priorities !

 

[A0]

I live in Rugby and getting to Leicester by train is an absolute sod

If your definition of "an absolute sod" is a single change and currently (due to Covid) an extended journey time due to service reductions, then I suspect your expectations are somewhat unrealistic.

Even with this suggestion you'd still be looking at a change. That said there is another completely unviable proposal doing the rounds to build a line between Rugby and Leicester which also has no business case.

There seem to be alot of crayonista proposals centering on Leicester at the moment (in addition to this plus the Rugby one, there's been the "Thameslink to Leicester" ones as well) - I can only assume there's something in the water at the moment which has made Leicester a mecca for railway crayonistas.

There are a series of educational establishments between Coventry and Nottingham which I would have thought are relevant - dependant on whether the industry want's to go after young people travelling to and from. It would also be beneficial to have a good local bus service linking the Unis, Colleges and Polys to the statons.

There really isn't that much demand for travel between colleges and universities.

Travel between campuses of the same college / uni, yes. But that's not what we're looking at here and in those instances the establishments are usually closer geographically.

Most uni students reside at or near their uni, so the main use of the train would be beginning / end of term - so basically seasonal like the "seaside holidaymakers" - except a week half a dozen times a year.

FE students tend to their local college and live at home, not commute 30+ miles a day.

 

[zwk500]

Whilst this proposal may not be the best use of money, is also not likely to be too crazy a use either.

If, as a country, we wish to get to net zero then we need to do something about increasing the ability to use rail to link between places (especially where the amount of works are limited as it can use existing lines).

The more routes which are easier to go by rail the less need there is due people to own cars.

Whilst this one scheme may not have a significant impact on that front, if other similar (fairly easy to implement, with fairly low risk, at least compared to a new line) schemes are also progressed then the cumulative effect could be fairly significant.

If we are to get the greatest number of people out of their cars and onto rail then we need to prioritise the schemes that will give the biggest benefit first. Schemes that only give cumulative effect should wait until the critical mass is closer.

As to passenger numbers, given that since the 1990's rail use had doubled, what at the time may have been a train with 40 people on (assuming a pair of coaches that's not even 30% full, so lots of pairs of seats and maybe a few table seats with just one person), even if assume +50% that's over 40% full.

Whilst that's still not overly busy, it does show that just the change in expectation in rail use could mean that there's enough demand that it's worth considering.

With the advent of online travel planners it's likely that any such new service could get spotted sooner but those who would benefit from it (again reducing the risk).

Passenger numbers have doubled, but not uniformly across the network. Long-distance interurban flows have shot up, but many regional routes have barely moved. There has to be demand for travel before people will look at using the train.

The other thing to consider (and although I've been to Nuneaton several times for work purposes, I'm not local enough to know) is could this have other benefits, such as for freight or for possibly allowing XC to run extra services that way from (say) Reading to ease their significant capacity constraint to more services (i.e. Birmingham)?

If (and it would probably require other schemes) the latter was possible it could improve frequency of XC services South of Coventry whilst also improving connections between parts of the East Midlands and parts of the South East. (To be clear I'm not saying that this must happen, rather could there be other benefits which could come about from this scheme?).

XC's key hub is Birmingham, they're not going to divert away from it. The solution to XC's capacity issues is to run longer trains.

There are 2 main intermodal freight flows through Nuneaton, neither of which are helped by this proposal. Felixstowe-Midlands traffic will continue to run via Water Orton for Lawley Street, and WCML/Southampton-Manchester traffic will stay on the Trent Valley. Aggregates traffic will almost certainly stay on their own lines to London, because it's the fastest way to where the stone is needed.

 

[james60059]

I live in Rugby and getting to Leicester by train is an absolute sod

Especially as Rugby once has 2 lines to Leicester (the Midland and the Great Central).

 

[zwk500]

Especially as Rugby once has 2 lines to Leicester (the Midland and the Great Central).

Of course, if it wasn't for a relatively minor road called the M1 then one of these lines might have survived...

 

[pdeaves]

Not sure that would work, people would just wait until the next train that goes to Nuneaton from Coventry itself and not use the Leicester train. I wouldn't want to hang around Bermuda Park any longer than necessary anyway!

There could potentially be a benefit for Leicester-Bermuda Park-Nuneaton (and vice versa) traffic, not Nuneaton-Coventry traffic.

 

[geordieblue]

Most uni students reside at or near their uni, so the main use of the train would be beginning / end of term - so basically seasonal like the "seaside holidaymakers" - except a week half a dozen times a year.

Although there is a fairly constant 'churn' of students going home for weekends / travelling to other cities to see friends. Obviously the beginning and end of term is the busiest but other travel is not insignificant.

 

[Nottingham59]

low in any list of priorities

Erm. Well actually it's near the top of the list of priorities from Midlands Connect, to the extent that, working alongside Network Rail, they have completed an Strateigc Outline Business Case, which "will be formally submitted to DfT June 2021".

But until that SOBC is published, everything on this thread is pure speculation.

 

[zwk500]

Erm. Well actually it's near the top of the list of priorities from Midlands Connect, to the extent that, working alongside Network Rail, they have completed an Strateigc Outline Business Case, which "will be formally submitted to DfT June 2021".

But until that SOBC is published, everything on this thread is pure speculation.

An SOBC is pretty much the first stage of the process. Having not even submitted it yet suggests it's not much off the bottom of the priority list for NR or DfT.

 

[Glenn1969]

Midlands Connect and TfN have both produced wishlists

Which is all they are until Sunak shows he is more willing to come up with big money than he proved to be for education

Revisit this in 2040. I doubt there will be much progress on the ground before that date

 

[A0]

Although there is a fairly constant 'churn' of students going home for weekends / travelling to other cities to see friends. Obviously the beginning and end of term is the busiest but other travel is not insignificant.

Sorry, but it is relatively insignificant.

Leicester University has 16,000 students, De Montfort about 29,000 - not all will be on site in Leicester, some will be remote learning, some will be post-grad etc. So you're looking at a student population of 30 - 40k, even if 25% of them left Leicester at the weekend (and that would be on the high side) then you're only talking about 10,000 people - and let's say 50% of them use the train, so that's 5,000. Leicester station usage is about 5.5m / p.a. - so call that 20-25k / day as a average - which means you reckon about 20-25% of the traffic through Leicester station at weekends will be students going home or visiting mates in other cities....... really ?

Of course, if it wasn't for a relatively minor road called the M1 then one of these lines might have survived...

I presume the smiley means you are, of course, joking ?

The Midlands Counties route between Rugby and Leicester was a pre-Beeching closure in 1962, so really wasn't viable.

The GC will be argued about for time immemorial, suffice to say it was still open when that section of the M1 was built.

 

[Robertj21a]

Erm. Well actually it's near the top of the list of priorities from Midlands Connect, to the extent that, working alongside Network Rail, they have completed an Strateigc Outline Business Case, which "will be formally submitted to DfT June 2021".

But until that SOBC is published, everything on this thread is pure speculation.

Erm - so it is low. It's only higher for one of the parties. I reckon there's a lot of more useful things to get on with!

 

[Nottingham59]

a lot of more useful things to get on with!

Such as?

 

[zwk500]

Such as?

Trent Junctions, Leicester remodelling, Wigston Jn.

 

[A0]

Trent Junctions, Leicester remodelling, Wigston Jn.

Well something's going to need to be done at Leicester given the current crayonista lists - it'll need to cope with presumably 2 tph from Coventry heading to Nottingham and vice versa (this thread), plus the Northampton - Rugby - Nottingham and vice versa suggestion (at least hourly) as well as the couple of Thameslink trains people are suggesting should head up that way to enable direct journeys from Luton and Bedford to Leicester avoiding the change at Kettering........ oh and I'm sure there must be a demand for a new EMR service to either Leeds or Manchester which will need to be accommodated.

 

[Jurg]

Interesting tweet suggesting the local MP has been briefed on a 'via Nuneaton' option, whereby the dive under would appear to be accessed southbound out of Platform 1 at Nuneaton.

https://twitter.com/greennuneaton/status/1400406137934131202

 

[A0]

As an aside, I'm intrigued to know how they are going to deliver an end to end 38 min journey time as well.

Coventry - Nuneaton is 22 mins, Nuneaton - Leicester is 19 mins - that's not allowing *any* reversal time at all and if anything will probably mean missing stops along the way. Surprised they haven't suggested wiring it and running it with 365s TBH.

 

[Bald Rick]

Such as?

MML electrification
Bordesley chords
Doubling Kenilworth - Leamington
Aldridge reopening
Midland Metro extensions
Snow Hill lines electrification
Ivanhoe Line (a tough one)
Cross Leicester capacity
etc.

 

[Nottingham59]

end to end 38 min journey time

I assume that's based on direct Coventry-Leicester services via the restored diveunder, missing out Nuneaton altogether.