More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[IndianPacific]

Digging the tunnels now is not too different to the Canal Tunnels for Thameslink, which were dug as part of the HS1 works at St Pancras in 2005-ish. They weren't signed in to use until 2015 as part of Thameslink Key Output 2.

Given the difficult construction interfaces at the OOC people have mentioned, it seems sensible to use a similar strategy.

 

[camflyer]

The Boston Big Dig, Berlin Brandenburg airport... perhaps as a species we need to accept that we just sometimes aren't very good at getting infrastructure projects right. Not that we shouldn't try to, or learn lessons, or even use punitive measures when things fail. But to some extent it seems to be part of our DNA.

Trouble is on these big/long projects that there are so many external factors which affect the delivery that it is impossible to plan, budget or mitigate for them - change of government policy, discover of an unknown archeological site, supply chain shortages, energy costs, inflation/interest rates, labour shortages, global pandemics all add to delay and costs compared to when the original budget was created. Maybe it's a miracle that any project is completed on time, within budget and to the original scope.

 

[zwk500]

Trouble is on these big/long projects that there are so many external factors which affect the delivery that it is impossible to plan, budget or mitigate for them - change of government policy, discover of an unknown archeological site, supply chain shortages, inflation/interest rates, labour shortages, global pandemics all add to delay and costs compared to when the original budget was created. Maybe it's a miracle that any project is completed on time, within budget and to the original scope.

'Original' scope being the key part - most projects get delayed because of people changing minds, or not fully defining the scope before committing to irreversible work.

 

[Xavi]

This is a popular view but it's an oversimplification of what actually happens in most projects.

Most projects start out with a set of aims, and a target budget. Quite often these two things are not compatible; that is the desired aims can't realistically be achieved within the desired budget. If that's obvious to the architect at the outset, then of course they ought to say to the client. The choice then is either to scale down the brief or accept that the budget needs to be raised. Clients commonly don't want to do either, and ask for design work to proceed based on the initial brief anyway, hoping that savings can somehow be found later. It's rarely in an architect's interests to do this, because it just means there's likely to be a lot of abortive design work, for stuff that later needs to be omitted for cost reasons.

Sometimes, it's just not really possible for an architect to judge costs at the outset of a project. There are all sorts of reasons for this. Maybe the brief itself simply isn't well defined. Often you have to go some way into the design process to work out what the brief actually needs to be. Maybe you are operating during a period where material or labour costs are changing an unpredictable. That's been the case for the past few years. Maybe the high-cost elements of the build aren't really related to architectural decisions as such and are more to do with engineering requirements, some of which might not be known until the site has been investigated more fully. There seems to have been some element of this at Euston.

The idea that architects (or other consultants such as civil or structural engineers) have walked away laughing from the Euston scheme with these millions of pounds of fees is a bit silly. Those fees are payment for work that has been done. Probably hundreds of people will have invested many hours of their lives working up designs in good faith, only to find that decisions made by the "client", in this case ultimately the DfT, make all that work redundant. It's pretty common in the building industry to be working on designs that never get built, because projects get changed or aborted for all sorts of reasons. No-one really wants to be doing abortive work. Most designers want to do their job well and want to see a project come into reality and be successful. The image of some kind of "gravy train" where all these people sit around doing unrealistic designs while money is thrown at them is kind of insulting.

Reading the NAO report, there doesn't seem to be any indication that the problems have originated in the design team drawing up clearly unrealistic or gold-plated schemes. The issues seem mainly to do with the various changes of mind at a much higher level.

Also, I don't have any detailed knowledge of the various designs that have been proposed or abandoned, but my guess is that cosmetic architectural stuff is not going to form a large proportion of the cost of this scheme. My guess is that the costliness is mostly going to be related to the massive engineering complexities of that site. Not just the basic structural issues of building around existing structures but the sequencing and logistics of the building process too.

Thanks for all the detail. Yes, it’s a simplistic viewpoint and happens regularly as I know from 30 years in the industry.

 

[sk688]

HS2 Euston Tunnel work has been paused, as expected

HS2 confirms that work on the Euston Tunnel is to be paused | New Civil Engineer

The tunnel’s schedule was thrown into doubt after the Euston station project was put on hold last month, with spiralling costs due to inflation cited as

www.newcivilengineer.com

HS2 Ltd has now confirmed that work on it, scheduled to begin in 2024, has been paused.

The paused tunnel runs from Old Oak Common in west London to Euston. Last June HS2 awarded SCS JV an extra £78M to deliver the approach tunnels into Euston station.

HS2 Ltd will now focus on the delivery of the section of line between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street with the Euston section to be completed at a later date.

Tunnelling specialist warned earlier this month that failure to complete the Euston Tunnels could create challenges at the Old Oak Common site from where the tunnel boring machines (TBMs) were due to be launched.

Two TBMs had been lined up to drive the Euston Tunnel. Piling work the tunnel cutting and further demolitions or tree felling will also be stopped, although it is understood current excavations for utilities in Euston Road and substation works for London Transport will be completed.

 

[GardenRail]

HS2 Euston Tunnel work has been paused, as expected

HS2 confirms that work on the Euston Tunnel is to be paused | New Civil Engineer

The tunnel’s schedule was thrown into doubt after the Euston station project was put on hold last month, with spiralling costs due to inflation cited as

www.newcivilengineer.com

HS2 Ltd has now confirmed that work on it, scheduled to begin in 2024, has been paused.

The paused tunnel runs from Old Oak Common in west London to Euston. Last June HS2 awarded SCS JV an extra £78M to deliver the approach tunnels into Euston station.

HS2 Ltd will now focus on the delivery of the section of line between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street with the Euston section to be completed at a later date.

Tunnelling specialist warned earlier this month that failure to complete the Euston Tunnels could create challenges at the Old Oak Common site from where the tunnel boring machines (TBMs) were due to be launched.

Two TBMs had been lined up to drive the Euston Tunnel. Piling work the tunnel cutting and further demolitions or tree felling will also be stopped, although it is understood current excavations for utilities in Euston Road and substation works for London Transport will be completed.

Can we do anything right in this country.....

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

That's a blow, but at least the enabling logistics tunnel will be constructed (the TBM was only launched last week).
With the Northolt Tunnel seemingly in difficulty for technical reasons, resources will at least be concentrated on the tunnels west of OOC.

 

[snowball]

Are there any recent reports from the area between the delta junction, Lichfield and Handsacre? Is work there continuing as before?

 

[Fazaar1889]

Can we do anything right in this country.....

Beans on toast is divine.

 

[cuemaster]

Can we do anything right in this country.....

Challenging times economically springs to mind, at least the decision focuses the available funds on Curzon St to OOC. Disappointing. Will we now get the Spring update?

 

[dangie]

Are there any recent reports from the area between the delta junction, Lichfield and Handsacre? Is work there continuing as before?

I can confirm from my weekly cycle rides that there still appears to be plenty of work going on. What that work actually is though I don’t know.

 

[E6007]

Are there any recent reports from the area between the delta junction, Lichfield and Handsacre? Is work there continuing as before?

As quoted, the pause just affected Euston and Phase 2a. The implication therefore is that work in this area continues

 

[SCDR_WMR]

As quoted, the pause just affected Euston and Phase 2a. The implication therefore is that work in this area continues

There were signs on the compound at Handsacre saying that works were to be paused. However, there is still a large presence there and works continuing for now.

As this is north of Curzon St, there is no need for it be ready for the initial phase now.

 

[E6007]

There were signs on the compound at Handsacre saying that works were to be paused. However, there is still a large presence there and works continuing for now.

As this is north of Curzon St, there is no need for it be ready for the initial phase now.

The initial service might be a self contained OOC to Curzon Street service but that will only provide 3tph. They want to connect to the WCML (at Handsacre), allowing 6tph, as soon as possible.

 

[HSTEd]

The initial service might be a self contained OOC to Curzon Street service but that will only provide 3tph. They want to connect to the WCML (at Handsacre), allowing 6tph, as soon as possible.

I expect they will rather more than 3 trains per hour to Birmingham during this initial phase. They will probably run as many trains as they can and divert cheap advance fares onto a via Birmingham/Birmingham International routing.

 

[GardenRail]

Challenging times economically springs to mind, at least the decision focuses the available funds on Curzon St to OOC. Disappointing. Will we now get the Spring update?

I predict it will get cancelled and trains will have to chug along the 'classic lines' to get to the fast bit. Lame.

 

[swt_passenger]

I predict it will get cancelled and trains will have to chug along the 'classic lines' to get to the fast bit. Lame.

There’s no track or terminus capacity for trains to “chug along” between Old Oak Common and anywhere else at the London end.

 

[GardenRail]

There’s no track or terminus capacity for trains to “chug along” between Old Oak Common and anywhere else at the London end.

Old Oak Common, end of the line then.

 

[zwk500]

I predict it will get cancelled and trains will have to chug along the 'classic lines' to get to the fast bit. Lame.

What do you mean by this? Trains will be OOC to Curzon Street only for a while, as was always the plan.

 

[najaB]

What do you mean by this? Trains will be OOC to Curzon Street only for a while, as was always the plan.

The problem is that, if they don't dig the Euston tunnels before the trains start running, they'll either never get dug or will cost several times more than it would to just do it now.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

HS2 Euston Tunnel work has been paused, as expected

HS2 confirms that work on the Euston Tunnel is to be paused | New Civil Engineer

The tunnel’s schedule was thrown into doubt after the Euston station project was put on hold last month, with spiralling costs due to inflation cited as

www.newcivilengineer.com

HS2 Ltd has now confirmed that work on it, scheduled to begin in 2024, has been paused.

The paused tunnel runs from Old Oak Common in west London to Euston. Last June HS2 awarded SCS JV an extra £78M to deliver the approach tunnels into Euston station.

HS2 Ltd will now focus on the delivery of the section of line between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street with the Euston section to be completed at a later date.

Tunnelling specialist warned earlier this month that failure to complete the Euston Tunnels could create challenges at the Old Oak Common site from where the tunnel boring machines (TBMs) were due to be launched.

Two TBMs had been lined up to drive the Euston Tunnel. Piling work the tunnel cutting and further demolitions or tree felling will also be stopped, although it is understood current excavations for utilities in Euston Road and substation works for London Transport will be completed.

Ive been dead against this project for a decade but the one thing i do know is that having started the construction works this is a plain daft decision that condemns phase 1 to being a very expensive piece of infrastructure that will never generate sufficient revenue to even cover the interest costs on incurred expenditure.

 

[zwk500]

The problem is that, if they don't dig the Euston tunnels before the trains start running, they'll either never get dug or will cost several times more than it would to just do it now.

I'm well aware. It's quite possibly the single stupidest decision anybody could have made in the UK today.

 

[GardenRail]

What do you mean by this? Trains will be OOC to Curzon Street only for a while, as was always the plan.

What do I mean? They will decide not to tunnel because of cost. You read it here first. Think back to the days when Eurostar had to do a tour of Network South East to get to France. That, just on a smaller scale.

 

[Xavi]

This is not new bad news. As I’ve previously posted, the (cash flow) pause on the Euston tunnels cannot be indefinite since the TBMs must be launch and the tunnels complete before OOC station build commences.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

This is not new bad news. As I’ve previously posted, the (cash flow) pause on the Euston tunnels cannot be indefinite since the TBMs must be launch and the tunnels complete before OOC station build commences.

I think today's news puts that in doubt.
It all depends what the length of pause is on the tunnelling.
The Euston TBMs will have been ordered and probably constructed already, ready to start next year.

 

[camflyer]

The problem is that, if they don't dig the Euston tunnels before the trains start running, they'll either never get dug or will cost several times more than it would to just do it now.

Classic example of a politician wanting to save money in the current budget cycle despite it meaning that the overall cost will be higher and the project take longer - but that will be a problem for a future politician to have to worry about.

 

[SynthD]

What do I mean? They will decide not to tunnel because of cost. You read it here first. Think back to the days when Eurostar had to do a tour of Network South East to get to France. That, just on a smaller scale.

Which end are you thinking of? The south, where the line will end 40ft below the GWR lines, or the north beyond the airport?

 

[zwk500]

What do I mean? They will decide not to tunnel because of cost. You read it here first. Think back to the days when Eurostar had to do a tour of Network South East to get to France. That, just on a smaller scale.

If they don't tunnel from OOC to Euston, they'll stay on HS2 but just terminate at OOC. They will tunnel from OOC northwards. There is no scope whatsoever for HS2 trains to be running on the conventional speed lines south of Rugby.

 

[GardenRail]

If they don't tunnel from OOC to Euston, they'll stay on HS2 but just terminate at OOC. They will tunnel from OOC northwards. There is no scope whatsoever for HS2 trains to be running on the conventional speed lines south of Rugby.

It'll be almost as quick to use the conventional train from Euston to Crewe by the time the punter's in London have got to Old Oak Common.

 

[JonathanH]

It'll be almost as quick to use the conventional train from Euston to Crewe by the time the punter's in London have got to Old Oak Common.

That depends where people are coming from. There will be places where it is quicker to get to Old Oak Common, and there will still be overall journey time savings for other users.