More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[AndrewE]

No one has claimed there is reduced costs, even HMT acknowledges it will cost more by delaying. It’s all about HMT cash flow and increasing chances of a pre-election tax cut.

I am surprised that is legal. HMT ought to be getting us the best bang for our bucks, and delaying the project certainly won't do that.

Obviously a politicialn or two must be ordering them to see what they can cut in the short term to allow tax cuts, which most people can see is a recipe for an ongoing spiral of decline and a waste of the money spent planning and mobilising.
(I would offer inadequate mental health care or lack of road mantainance leading to potholes as just 2 examples of short-sighted underfunding which ends up costing us all more in the long - and not-so-long - term)

 

[HSTEd]

I am surprised that is legal. HMT ought to be getting us the best bang for our bucks, and delaying the project certainly won't do that.

All the Treasury cares about is whether a line on their spreadsheet turns red rather than green, ultimately.

Obviously a politicialn or two must be ordering them to see what they can cut in the short term to allow tax cuts, which most people can see is a recipe for an ongoing spiral of decline and a waste of the money spent planning and mobilising.

Most people might think that, but then most of them will still vote for the party that promises them.

 

[stuu]

I am surprised that is legal. HMT ought to be getting us the best bang for our bucks, and delaying the project certainly won't do that.

Obviously a politicialn or two must be ordering them to see what they can cut in the short term to allow tax cuts, which most people can see is a recipe for an ongoing spiral of decline and a waste of the money spent planning and mobilising.
(I would offer inadequate mental health care or lack of road mantainance leading to potholes as just 2 examples of short-sighted underfunding which ends up costing us all more in the long - and not-so-long - term)

How it can it not be legal? There is no requirement for governments to be sensible with our money, the only control is the electorate

 

[leananger]

How it can it not be legal? There is no requirement for governments to be sensible with our money, the only control is the electorate.

What control, once every 5 years when it is too late. We need an annual general election for a true democracy.

 

[snowball]

I am surprised that is legal. HMT ought to be getting us the best bang for our bucks, and delaying the project certainly won't do that.

The counter-argument to that can be seen by just looking back to last autumn. When Liz Truss as PM and Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor allowed the rate of public spending to increase a bit, the markets lost confidence, the economy started to crash, they only lasted in power for a few weeks, and the after-effects are being seen in, for example, a massive increase in mortgage rates that has made a lot of people very unhappy.

Admittedly they were grossly incompetent and it could be argued that the effects would have been less bad if it had been done more intelligently, but the bad effects of their record short period in office are now with us, and will limit the ability of governments to spend money for several years to come.

 

[Topological]

Off topic, but that Truss experiment was an interesting one in the markets dictating what government do.

Delaying HS2 is a false economy, but sadly governments are assessed on figures today rather than any potential future benefit adjusted metrics. Therefore bringing spending down today takes precedence over getting best value.

Hopefully after the inflation rate comes down and the economy is back on track we will see the government accelerating HS2 again.

 

[snowball]

The August Modern Railways has an item on page 10 saying that the pause on phase 2a does not affect the Handsacre link. It is said that HS2 CEO Mark Thurston has confirmed this to the magazine.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The August Modern Railways has an item on page 10 saying that the pause on phase 2a does not affect the Handsacre link. It is said that HS2 CEO Mark Thurston has confirmed this to the magazine.

I think it's a bit more nuanced than that.
This is what the HS2 Corporate Business Plan 2023-26 says (p19):

HS2 Corporate Plan 2023 to 2026

High Speed Two (HS2) Ltd’s Corporate Plan covers the three-year planning period 2023 to 2026.

www.gov.uk

Balfour Beatty VINCI (BBV), our main works contractor for the northern section of Phase One, is continuing to make significant construction progress, with
much more to come. However, some planned activities between Curdworth in North Warwickshire and Handsacre in Staffordshire will not be mobilised
as originally planned as we manage cost pressures.
On that particular section of the route, there will still be an expected 80% increase in activity this year as we progress through peak construction. BBV will continue as planned with works that are underway and affect major assets like critical utilities, A-roads, motorways and the conventional rail network.
This means works around the A38 at Streethay, and works to create a box bridge underneath the West Coast Main Line, near Lichfield Trent Valley, are unaffected by the rephasing.
The route section requires major earthworks, including embankments and cuttings, to form the ‘level’ ground we need for HS2. Most of the works
will go ahead as planned as BBV continues to hit project milestones in the next few years.

So work is still proceeding, particularly at major sites, but is affected by the cap on annual spend so has been rephased to a degree.
How this affects completion relative to the OOC-Curzon St section isn't explained, but the assumption is that it will be later.
The related NR work at Handsacre will also be affected.

No doubt this kind of issue will return as the project gets to grips with cost inflation and with as yet unlet contracts like those for the railway systems.

 

[Xavi]

So work is still proceeding, particularly at major sites, but is affected by the cap on annual spend so has been rephased to a degree.

Yes, though only on programmed works where it was not feasible to pause. Otherwise paused with restart date TBC.

 

[irish_rail]

I find an irony in that Old Oak Common Station risks clogging up the GWML in a project designed to unclog the WCML. Time will tell of course, but I think the Western will face big problems for many years to come, not just the disruption caused in the building stage but the actual running of the classic trains all stopping at OOC. Its also ironic that the GWML faces years of possessions and closures whilst the new station is built, yet not disrupting the existing WCML with closures was one of the main selling points for HS2......

 

[The Ham]

I find an irony in that Old Oak Common Station risks clogging up the GWML in a project designed to unclog the WCML. Time will tell of course, but I think the Western will face big problems for many years to come, not just the disruption caused in the building stage but the actual running of the classic trains all stopping at OOC. Its also ironic that the GWML faces years of possessions and closures whilst the new station is built, yet not disrupting the existing WCML with closures was one of the main selling points for HS2......

If Euston was being built (as originally planned) there would have likely been a bit of swapping between GWML/WCML (depending on boarding restrictions maybe even boarding at the wrong terminus to change trains at OOC - although probably fairly unlikely) however without Euston there's likely to be a lot more people using Paddington as the starting point of their journey and resulting in significant churn of passengers at OOC, which could slow down busy services at OOC causing delays.

 

[jfowkes]

I find an irony in that Old Oak Common Station risks clogging up the GWML in a project designed to unclog the WCML. Time will tell of course, but I think the Western will face big problems for many years to come, not just the disruption caused in the building stage but the actual running of the classic trains all stopping at OOC. Its also ironic that the GWML faces years of possessions and closures whilst the new station is built, yet not disrupting the existing WCML with closures was one of the main selling points for HS2......

There was a thread about this at the end of last year: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/gwml-closures-for-old-oak-common.240147/

The WCML is still being disrupted by HS2, in fact a 9 day closure has just ended between Rugby and Stafford for a bridge drive. It's just much less disruption than you'd get by adding two tracks all the way up the existing WCML.

Ultimately I think the GWML having an in-station transfer to HS2 will be a significant benefit that's worth the disruption.

 

[irish_rail]

Ultimately I think the GWML having an in-station transfer to HS2 will be a significant benefit that's worth the disruption.

Possibly, we will see. I understand why everything needs to stop at OOC, but there is certainly no benefit to passengers from the west (Plymouth, Cardiff etc) in being made to stop there. Especially whilst the HS2 trains are only going to Birmingham!

 

[fishwomp]

Possibly, we will see. I understand why everything needs to stop at OOC, but there is certainly no benefit to passengers from the west (Plymouth, Cardiff etc) in being made to stop there. Especially whilst the HS2 trains are only going to Birmingham!

For the railway, not for the passenger.

The passenger does get faster trips to Birmingham Airport for Bath, Chippenham, Swindon, Reading, Melksham - for flights, NEC's annual caravan show and the motorbike museum. (Yes, I know there's always Bristol and Heathrow airports so I'm not so sure about the first).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Without direct western access to Heathrow, changing at the new OOC will be a better way to get there from GW stations (on trains that normally would be non-stop from Reading).

 

[Snow1964]

For the railway, not for the passenger.

The passenger does get faster trips to Birmingham Airport for Bath, Chippenham, Swindon, Reading, Melksham - for flights, NEC's annual caravan show and the motorbike museum. (Yes, I know there's always Bristol and Heathrow airports so I'm not so sure about the first).

But that is more to do with the railways choice of service provision, if one train per hour was routed from Swindon via Oxford and a spur off East-West rail to Birmingham, then very few would opt to travel via longer route change at Old Oak Common unless it was significantly cheaper.

The notion that those starting in west going to destinations in midlands or North West would prefer a deviation via South East of country is only credible if the service north-south on western side is made dreadful

 

[fishwomp]

The notion that those starting in west going to destinations in midlands or North West would prefer a deviation via South East of country is only credible if the service north-south on western side is made dreadful

Time to unite with the thread on 4-car XC voyagers and the withdrawal of HSTs then!

 

[E6007]

Possibly, we will see. I understand why everything needs to stop at OOC, but there is certainly no benefit to passengers from the west (Plymouth, Cardiff etc) in being made to stop there. Especially whilst the HS2 trains are only going to Birmingham!

Don't underestimate the time reduction for GWR passengers changing to the Elizabeth Line at Old Oak Common instead of Paddington.

 

[irish_rail]

Don't underestimate the time reduction for GWR passengers changing to the Elizabeth Line at Old Oak Common instead of Paddington.

Potentially, but coming from further west at least, id be surprised if they are the majority.

 

[PGAT]

IIRC very few passengers journey finishes at Paddington itself, they either get the tube or the bus to their actual destination. The Elizabeth Line and the nearby OSIs at Old Oak Common provide far better connectivity than the Circle line at Paddington, for example

 

[fishwomp]

IIRC very few passengers journey finishes at Paddington itself, they either get the tube or the bus to their actual destination. The Elizabeth Line and the nearby OSIs at Old Oak Common provide far better connectivity than the Circle line at Paddington, for example

Although the choice isn't between circle line at Pad and crossrail at OOC - the choice is also crossrail at Pad.

Stopping expresses at OOC delays journeys to Crossrail east of Pad, it doesn't make them faster: you either swap to Crossrail at OOC and are on a stopper for a few more mins, or you stop the once from 90mph or so, unload some pax, close the doors, set off again on the express.. So, no, it's not an improvement for journeys east of Pad to current situation .

 

[stuu]

Although the choice isn't between circle line at Pad and crossrail at OOC - the choice is also crossrail at Pad.

Stopping expresses at OOC delays journeys to Crossrail east of Pad, it doesn't make them faster: you either swap to Crossrail at OOC and are on a stopper for a few more mins, or you stop the once from 90mph or so, unload some pax, close the doors, set off again on the express.. So, no, it's not an improvement for journeys east of Pad to current situation .

The change between GWR and EL will be shorter and straightforward at OOC, especially for passengers at the back of the train. It won't be a huge time saving but I expect it will be a popular choice

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

HMT ought to be getting us the best bang for our bucks......

I note the "bang" is for "bucks"....not "lancs"...

 

[brad465]

A key infrastructure watchdog has rated delivery of HS2 as unachievable:

HS2: Rail link rated 'unachievable' by infrastructure watchdog

The IPA gave the project a "red" warning, raising issues related to budgets and schedules.

www.bbc.co.uk

The HS2 rail line has been given an "unachievable" rating by an official watchdog.
It has been granted a "red" warning for its first two phases - from London to Birmingham then onto Crewe - by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority.
Issues were raised related to budget, schedule and project definition.
The multi-billion pound project aims to connect London with central and northern England but has faced major delays and criticism.
The red rating, in the IPA's annual report on major projects, states: "Successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable."
It adds there are "major issues with project definition, schedule, budget, quality and/or benefits delivery, which at this stage do not appear to be manageable or resolvable".
"The project may need re-scoping and/or its overall viability reassessed."
The phase of the project running from Crewe to Manchester was given an "amber" grading, meaning successful delivery "appears feasible" but that "significant issues already exist".
The London to Birmingham leg of HS2 was due to open in 2026, but is now expected between 2029 and 2033.
The second phase was due to open in 2032-33, but has been pushed back to 2035-2040.
An eastern leg of the line running to Leeds has been scrapped, and instead a shorter high-speed line will link Birmingham and East Midlands Parkway.
Management issues and unrealistic land valuations have also caused costs to spiral.
A budget of £55.7bn for the whole project was set in 2015, but the target cost excluding the eastern leg of Phase 2b from the West Midlands to the East Midlands has soared to between £53bn and £61bn at 2019 prices.
Earlier this month, HS2 Ltd's chief executive Mark Thurston announced his resignation - he will leave his role in September after six and a half years.
His resignation came as phase one of the project between London and Birmingham is under construction, with major work taking place at more than 350 sites.
In March, transport secretary Mark Harper announced work at London Euston would be paused for two years after costs increased from £2.6bn to £4.8bn.
A spokesperson for the Department of Transport said the government remains committed to delivering HS2.
"HS2 will bring transformational benefits for generations to come, improving connections and helping grow the economy," they said.
The IPA is the government's centre of expertise for infrastructure and major projects.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

To put this in context, the IPA annual report was published on 20 July, and covers 244 projects of which about 20 involve rail (inludes MML, East Coast Digital, E-W Rail etc, as well as HS2).
The HS2 entries are on p54 of this:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1171218/IPA-Annual-report-2022-2023.pdf

The entries simply show the project status colour coding, and a short description of the project, without any analysis.
There is no discussion of HS2 elsewhere in the document.

On p40 at the head of the listings of project status is a generic paragraph on why a project is coded green, amber, red etc.
This is the paragraph on Red projects:

Successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable. There are major issues with project definition, schedule, budget, quality and/or benefits delivery, which at this stage do not appear to be manageable or resolvable. The project may need re-scoping and/or its overall viability reassessed

All the BBC has done is to repeat these paragraphs for red and amber, as though they refer specifically to HS2.
The report is not an analytical assessment of the HS2 projects (though we might well agree with the status they have given).
The BBC report then goes into the well-known budget and timescale issues from HS2's reports.

So I don't think the IPA report presents anything new, any more than the reports of the various Parliamentary committees do.
The IPA is a Cabinet Office agency advising the PM.
It's possible the PM will react to the advice being given, but then he has 200-odd other projects to worry about, many also flashing Red in the IPA report.

 

[Andy9gc]

To put this in context, the IPA annual report was published on 20 July, and covers 244 projects of which about 20 involve rail (inludes MML, East Coast Digital, E-W Rail etc, as well as HS2).
The HS2 entries are on p54 of this:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1171218/IPA-Annual-report-2022-2023.pdf

The entries simply show the project status colour coding, and a short description of the project, without any analysis.
There is no discussion of HS2 elsewhere in the document.

On p40 at the head of the listings of project status is a generic paragraph on why a project is coded green, amber, red etc.
This is the paragraph on Red projects:


All the BBC has done is to repeat these paragraphs for red and amber.
The report is not an analytical assessment of the HS2 projects (though we might well agree with the status they have given).
The BBC report then goes into the well-known budget and timescale issues from HS2's reports.

So I don't think the IPA report presents anything new, any more than the reports of the various Parliamentary committees do.
The IPA is a Cabinet Office agency advising the PM.
It's possible the PM will react to the advice being given, but then he has 200-odd other projects to worry about, many also flashing Red in the IPA report.

Its also worth mentioning that Crossrail was listed as RED in FY 18/19 & 19/20 then back to AMBER and finally GREEN. So as you said the fact that HS2 has a Red status now doesn't really tell us anything new.




For reference here are the ratings for HS2

 

[fishwomp]

To put this in context, the IPA annual report was published on 20 July, and covers 244 projects of which about 20 involve rail (inludes MML, East Coast Digital, E-W Rail etc, as well as HS2).
The HS2 entries are on p54 of this:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1171218/IPA-Annual-report-2022-2023.pdf

[..]
So I don't think the IPA report presents anything new, any more than the reports of the various Parliamentary committees do.
The IPA is a Cabinet Office agency advising the PM.
It's possible the PM will react to the advice being given, but then he has 200-odd other projects to worry about, many also flashing Red in the IPA report.

True. Nothing new, but if you sort the value of the projects by cost, would this be both red and the top of the list?

I did see MML electrification is yellow - in spite of the text for this talking about the deceased HS2 link as the motivation for it!!

Electrification of the Midland Mainline from Wigston to Sheffield
and Nottingham. The programme will enable the removal of diesel
traction from the route (contributing to net carbon zero and air quality
targets), and facilitates HS2 trains to serve the East Midlands and
South Yorkshire.

 

[Dan G]

I found the published detail of HS2 Phase 1's rating:

Compared to financial year 21/22-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 22/23-Q4 decreased from Amber to Red. This is primarily due to the following factors.

The Spring Budget required HS2 to rephase parts of Phase 1 to reduce expenditure over the next two years to help manage overall government expenditure whilst protecting the Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street section. HS2 Ltd has reported further cost pressures across Phase 1 which are currently being reviewed by HS2 Ltd's Board. Phase 1's delivery targets for cost and schedule will need to be amended to address these changes and to address excess inflation given costs continue to be measured in 2019 values.

From https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dft-government-major-projects-portfolio-data-2023

Also

Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street remains on track to deliver initial services between 2029 and 2033. Works continue to be progressed north of Birmingham but may need to be slowed if necessary to protect initial services. Work south of Old Oak Common including Euston has been paused and a revised schedule depends on when funding is reinstated.

WLC does not reflect the true up-front cost for HS2 so is not reported by DfT. The Target Cost for Phase One is 40.3bn, and the overall budget including Euston is 44.6bn. The HS2 budget is in 2019 terms and needs to be rebased to adjust for inflation. HS2 is experiencing high inflation, and HS2L has reported cost pressures, with its estimate at completion under review.On 9 March DfT committed to the delivery of HS2 between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street but delayed other parts of Phase 1.

DfT and HS2 Ltd are rescheduling delivery and reprofiling costs to protect vfm, but prolongation and delay costs have not been assessed, and will depend on when funding is available. DfT is committed to delivering services to Euston, and is working with HS2 on affordability to protect vfm, this includes investing in more mature designs and cost-effective delivery approaches.

Phase 2a

Compared to financial year 21/22-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 22/23-Q4 decreased from Green to Red. This is primarily due to the following factors.

The Spring Budget confirmed that the Government is committed to delivering HS2 Phase 2a between Birmingham and Crewe. However, due to significant inflationary pressures and increased project costs, this section will be rephased by two years, with an aim to deliver high-speed services to Crewe and the North West as soon as possible after accounting for the delay in construction. The Department is continuing to work through the cost and programme implications of this rephasing decision with HS2 Ltd, and further details, including a new delivery-into-service date range for HS2 Phase 2a, will be confirmed in due course.

Phase 2b

Compared to financial year 21/22-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 22/23-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors.

The Spring Budget confirmed that the Government will continue to take the High Speed Rail (Crewe Manchester) Bill through Parliament, and the Crewe-to-Manchester section will also form the foundations for improved rail services in the North through Northern Powerhouse Rail.

An additional detail in the Telegraph article is that Euston is proving impossible to deliver for less than £2.6bn.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

True. Nothing new, but if you sort the value of the projects by cost, would this be both red and the top of the list?

On page 13/14 of the IPA report are bar charts for each government department showing overall costs and benefits for their projects.
DfT (with HS2) is second in the cost list after MoD which is way out in front.
In the benefits list, it is DfT which is in front, MoD projects delivering remarkably low benefits.

So although it doesn't say so specifically, I suspect HS2 is indeed close to the top of the red/cost list, but a couple of MoD projects, with low public perception, will be ahead.
All the data is for 2022-23 so doesn't reflect any changes since April 2023.

NPR is also Amber, like HS2 Crewe-Manchester.
I can't think of a reason why both of them are not Red!
Presumably it's because the DfT's IRP is not yet in complete tatters.

 

[snowball]

I found the published detail of HS2 Phase 1's rating:

From https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dft-government-major-projects-portfolio-data-2023
...
Also:

WLC does not reflect the true up-front cost for HS2 so is not reported by DfT.

Sorry if I'm being thick but what's WLC?