Network Rail's Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy published

[Rhydgaled]

My one overriding thought.. what's the likelihood of this happening in a sustained, rolling manner that something of this scope demands?

Going on past form my guess (and it is just a guess) would be that the likelyhood of a proper rolling programme is very slim. However, there was a point (probably within the last 12 months) when I was fearful that the government wouldn't authorise another electrification project for many years. This report may change that, but my guess would be that sections will end up being authorised individually, but not as a rolling programme.

Realistically post covid the most realistic plan to decarbonisation would most likely be cancelling all rail investment and using the funds to switch to non carbon road transport and home heating. Rail is a niche polluter its relatively low levels can come in 20 years time.

Transport is now the 'worst' sector in the UK for greenhouse gas emissions; home heating is something else that needs to be addressed (and you are almost certainly correct that it is responsible for more emissions than the railway is at present) but it is a different sector. Road transport is a (much) bigger emmitter than rail too, but modal shift to public transport is necessary* to tackle that. Yes electric cars and electric (and maybe hydrogen in rural area) buses will play a part, but won't modal shift for long-distances require rail? If we wait until 2040 to even start decarbonisation of rail services, there is no way in hell that rail will have decarbonised by 2050. Thus rail's (small admittedly) carbon footprint would need to be offset somehow to meet the net-zero commitment.

* Page 8 of the latest SARPA newsletter makes this statement (I believe from Gareth Marston)

the DfT had wanted the energy sector to increase national grid output by 30% so that 35million electric vehicles could continue to be charged and used as now. Quite where the power source for that was going to come from they didn’t say, but they got a firm no. Whilst electric cars are viable and planned we do not have the power generating capacity to use them the same way as our 35 million fossil fuel road vehicles. This is a key point to realise, as not everyone will be able to retain and use their car on electric power as now, even if they want to.

I don't know the original source of this suggestion that DfT had asked for national grid output to be increased by 30%, but it's not the first time I've heard the grid wouldn't handle charging all the nation's cars.

 

[Bald Rick]

but won't modal shift for long-distances require rail?

Nope, electric cars can do long distance too.

I don't know the original source of this suggestion that DfT had asked for national grid output to be increased by 30%, but it's not the first time I've heard the grid wouldn't handle charging all the nation's cars.

Generating capacity isn’t the problem. There’s plenty of that coming on line in the next decade - a near doubling of wind power*, and more nuclear than is being retired (assuming Sizewell C gets built, which looks very likely). Plus the commissioning of various connectors to Europe and Norway.

The problem is the grid itself, and local distribution networks. But this is being worked on, and by the time that 50% of cars are EVs (another decade or so) it will be sorted.

*if all the currently consented wind energy projects are built, the country will have more than 40GW (peak) of wind capacity. There about another 10GW in planning that hasn’t yet been consented. Clearly that’s a maximum on a windy day across the whole country, but given that national peak demand is only above 40GW on winter evenings, it can provide plenty of power. Particularly with the energy storage capability of 10s of millions of batteries sat in various parking spots across the country.

 

[The Ham]

Going on past form my guess (and it is just a guess) would be that the likelyhood of a proper rolling programme is very slim. However, there was a point (probably within the last 12 months) when I was fearful that the government wouldn't authorise another electrification project for many years. This report may change that, but my guess would be that sections will end up being authorised individually, but not as a rolling programme.

Transport is now the 'worst' sector in the UK for greenhouse gas emissions; home heating is something else that needs to be addressed (and you are almost certainly correct that it is responsible for more emissions than the railway is at present) but it is a different sector. Road transport is a (much) bigger emmitter than rail too, but modal shift to public transport is necessary* to tackle that. Yes electric cars and electric (and maybe hydrogen in rural area) buses will play a part, but won't modal shift for long-distances require rail? If we wait until 2040 to even start decarbonisation of rail services, there is no way in hell that rail will have decarbonised by 2050. Thus rail's (small admittedly) carbon footprint would need to be offset somehow to meet the net-zero commitment.

* Page 8 of the latest SARPA newsletter makes this statement (I believe from Gareth Marston)I don't know the original source of this suggestion that DfT had asked for national grid output to be increased by 30%, but it's not the first time I've heard the grid wouldn't handle charging all the nation's cars.

A 30% increase would put us back to ~110% of what we were using in 2004 due to a fall in energy use since then.

Whilst that would mean extra generation capacity is likely to mean that the wider network has the capacity without needing to do too much in the way of grid upgrades until you get to the local network.

However even then I'm not sure that the draw will be all that much, as most people live/work within 20 miles (and many less than that), so the power draw to charge most cars by that much over night wouldn't be that great.

 

[Bald Rick]

I’ve posted elsewhere on the forum how much electrical capacity will be required to charge an entirely EV car / light goods fleet.

To be fair it is quite a lot; about 15GW all night IIRC. However that is within capacity of the future generation network.

 

[Rhydgaled]

but won't modal shift for long-distances require rail?

Nope, electric cars can do long distance too.

An electric car might be able to do long-distance, but it's still a car so it isn't modal shift. What I meant was that road-based public transport (buses) is not going to be attractive for long-distance journeys in the same way that rail can be. In other words, for a long-journey the only alternative car-owners are likely to consider is a train.

Particularly with the energy storage capability of 10s of millions of batteries sat in various parking spots across the country.

I've never understood this idea of electric cars giving power back to the grid and acting as a store for wind/solar energy for use on calm days / at night. It sounds great if taken at face value, but are motorists going to be happy with their car battery being drained when they think they've left it on charge? It won't manage a long journey if they get up early one morning after a calm night and find the battery is only half charged. I suppose if the car batteries are like having solar panels on your roof and primarily power your own house (so reduce your electricity bill) it might be accepted; even better if it would ONLY power your own house (so that, if you want to make sure it charges to 100%, you turn off everything in your house).

 

[Bald Rick]

It sounds great if taken at face value, but are motorists going to be happy with their car battery being drained when they think they've left it on charge? It won't manage a long journey if they get up early one morning after a calm night and find the battery is only half charged.

Not all motorists, but many will be. If you know you are likely to need a long journey in the morning, you will tell the car that, and it will keep it charged. If you know you won’t need it, then it may give up some charge.

The incentives for doing this will be sufficient to make people think about it. It’s quite conceivable that EV car owners could make £100 a month or more from providing what is known as ‘demand response’ from their batteries.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

An electric car might be able to do long-distance, but it's still a car so it isn't modal shift. What I meant was that road-based public transport (buses) is not going to be attractive for long-distance journeys in the same way that rail can be. In other words, for a long-journey the only alternative car-owners are likely to consider is a train.

I've never understood this idea of electric cars giving power back to the grid and acting as a store for wind/solar energy for use on calm days / at night. It sounds great if taken at face value, but are motorists going to be happy with their car battery being drained when they think they've left it on charge? It won't manage a long journey if they get up early one morning after a calm night and find the battery is only half charged. I suppose if the car batteries are like having solar panels on your roof and primarily power your own house (so reduce your electricity bill) it might be accepted; even better if it would ONLY power your own house (so that, if you want to make sure it charges to 100%, you turn off everything in your house).

It's not necessarily that electric cars will be giving power back to the grid, simply that you (and/or your car) might decide not to recharge if it's a day or night with little wind. If you're doing a 40 mile round trip 5 days a week with a Kia e-Niro (282 miles WLTP range) then you don't need to recharge every night and can probably manage with 1 charge a week, but you plug your car in anyway and set it to recharge if there's excess electric available or if the range drops below a predetermined level.

 

[The Ham]

The biggest risk is a calm winter night where EV's will be needing more electricity sure to running more heating functions (reducing their range), more home heating happening (it's less of an issue for the summer as not many have AC in their homes) and less ability for solar to start to take some of the load before people head out to work.

It's why we need more hydro, wave and tidal power in the mix too.

However some of the risk is reduced by a lot of our wind turbines being at sea where the risk of it being calm is likely to be lower. Even then the scale is such that it's unlikely that everywhere would be calm, so it shouldn't be such a problem.

It's also (given how much our weather changes) unlikely to be a problem over several days, so short term measures like using up spare range from EV's should be enough to bridge the gap until there's spare energy to recharge them.

If there's people not needing their car (say they're away for a week) that car could give up nearly all it's energy as long as it was charged for their return. This could mean (as an example) giving back energy on a calm Wednesday but then be recharged on Friday as the generation picked back up as winds improved.

You will need quite a clever system to allow for such events, but it's not that hard. With my home heating controls (which are 10 years old, so current ones are probably more sophisticated) I can set an away function which turns the hearing on to keep the house above 10 but reverts to normal hearing levels after the defined number of days.

As such it shouldn't be that complex a system to put in place for something we may not need for another decade (assuming that there'll not be enough EV's to make much of a difference too much before then and that there's still likely to be some gas within the mix until about then, a bit like how there's still a bit of coal now).

 

[paul1609]

Nope, electric cars can do long distance too.



Generating capacity isn’t the problem. There’s plenty of that coming on line in the next decade - a near doubling of wind power*, and more nuclear than is being retired (assuming Sizewell C gets built, which looks very likely). Plus the commissioning of various connectors to Europe and Norway.

The problem is the grid itself, and local distribution networks. But this is being worked on, and by the time that 50% of cars are EVs (another decade or so) it will be sorted.

*if all the currently consented wind energy projects are built, the country will have more than 40GW (peak) of wind capacity. There about another 10GW in planning that hasn’t yet been consented. Clearly that’s a maximum on a windy day across the whole country, but given that national peak demand is only above 40GW on winter evenings, it can provide plenty of power. Particularly with the energy storage capability of 10s of millions of batteries sat in various parking spots across the country.

Sorry but on a global UK basis I think thats Tosh.
The national grid can largely cope with the additional requirement basically because of spare capacity due to de-industrialisation but the local distribution networks most certainly cant deal with the addition of a 7kw car charging point and a 6kw (electrical load) air source heat pump replacing their gas boiler in every home. The diversity calculations just didn't allow for that sort of load. Im currently unaware of any plans or funding to basically replace the local distribution networks.
You could do EV charging with some modification or electric heating with a lot of modification but not both.

On the generation front I'm a great fan of renewable generation but there are still no plans for back up generation for the long periods that we experience in the UK every winter when a high pressure system sits over north western europe for days. Wind generation during that time will fall to negligible no matter how many turbines we build and solar power doesn't work when its dark. The current solutions would be to build lots of new nuclear plants in which case you don't need to keep building turbines or loads of Gas power stations that you only use on a few days a year. There is currently funding or plans for neither.

Relying on interconnectors for long term is foolish because the french interconnector currently supplies spare nuclear capacity that will be absorbed in the french domestic market as it decarbonises and the northern european interconnections mostly supply surplus wind power which suffers from the same winter problems.

A belief that the national grid can be powered on parked EV batteries is just silly. A cold winters night in December with no wind would see the homes air source heat pump run the cars batteries flat before morning.

The current legislation to de-carbonise by 2050 has a financial limitation of 2 % of GDP, I'm personally of the opinion that won't be achieved.

 

[Bald Rick]

Sorry but on a global UK basis I think thats Tosh.
The national grid can largely cope with the additional requirement basically because of spare capacity due to de-industrialisation but the local distribution networks most certainly cant deal with the addition of a 7kw car charging point and a 6kw (electrical load) air source heat pump replacing their gas boiler in every home. The diversity calculations just didn't allow for that sort of load. Im currently unaware of any plans or funding to basically replace the local distribution networks.
You could do EV charging with some modification or electric heating with a lot of modification but not both.

On the generation front I'm a great fan of renewable generation but there are still no plans for back up generation for the long periods that we experience in the UK every winter when a high pressure system sits over north western europe for days. Wind generation during that time will fall to negligible no matter how many turbines we build and solar power doesn't work when its dark. The current solutions would be to build lots of new nuclear plants in which case you don't need to keep building turbines or loads of Gas power stations that you only use on a few days a year. There is currently funding or plans for neither.

Relying on interconnectors for long term is foolish because the french interconnector currently supplies spare nuclear capacity that will be absorbed in the french domestic market as it decarbonises and the northern european interconnections mostly supply surplus wind power which suffers from the same winter problems.

A belief that the national grid can be powered on parked EV batteries is just silly. A cold winters night in December with no wind would see the homes air source heat pump run the cars batteries flat before morning.

The current legislation to de-carbonise by 2050 has a financial limitation of 2 % of GDP, I'm personally of the opinion that won't be achieved.

Well I didn’t say it will be easy!

Re the interconnectors - they are not just to France.

 

[Domh245]

Re the interconnectors - they are not just to France.

France does represent most of the capacity though. The logic also applies to the other interconnectors though, as they decarbonise their own grid the surpluses will likely reduce - energy independence would be preferable to import

 

[Class 170101]

Generating capacity isn’t the problem. There’s plenty of that coming on line in the next decade - a near doubling of wind power*, and more nuclear than is being retired (assuming Sizewell C gets built, which looks very likely). Plus the commissioning of various connectors to Europe and Norway.

The problem is the grid itself, and local distribution networks. But this is being worked on, and by the time that 50% of cars are EVs (another decade or so) it will be sorted.

*if all the currently consented wind energy projects are built, the country will have more than 40GW (peak) of wind capacity. There about another 10GW in planning that hasn’t yet been consented. Clearly that’s a maximum on a windy day across the whole country, but given that national peak demand is only above 40GW on winter evenings, it can provide plenty of power. Particularly with the energy storage capability of 10s of millions of batteries sat in various parking spots across the country.

I'm not sure Sizewell C or Bradwell B will be built. Politically we have to decide whether to face east or west as its pretty clear US Foreign Policy won't cut us any slack if we take Chinese technology - ref 5G. If we do face east then forget US support should it go wrong.

In terms of fianance are sure this is achievable as well? A Nuclear power station is now not being built in North Wales (Anglesey) as Hitachi couldn't get fianance for it. Also is the £90(?) strike price now acceptable to the public? Should we have a big rise in unemployment due to COVID 19 its hardly likely to get people wanting / being able to pay more on their bills

Realistically post covid the most realistic plan to decarbonisation would most likely be cancelling all rail investment and using the funds to switch to non carbon road transport and home heating. Rail is a niche polluter its relatively low levels can come in 20 years time.

Rail investment will continue to be needed as I don't think travelling by air around the UK should be seen as acceptable. I would argue that cancelling the 3rd Runway at Heathrow and using existing UK slots at Heathrow for Long Haul Flights would be better. I would argue that perhaps existing runways around the Midlands and Greater South East could be used to better effect before we build another runway anywhere, but especially in the South East. COVID 19 has been suggested to give us a 5yr breathing space before we get back where we are now. The same could be said for air travel as well.

 

[Randomer]

The problem is the grid itself, and local distribution networks. But this is being worked on, and by the time that 50% of cars are EVs (another decade or so) it will be sorted.

The issue I'm hearing from contacts in the local DNO (Distribution Network Operator, the people who take power from the national grid and direct it to homes in an area i.e. your actual electricity supplier vs. who charges you) is capacity at the local level. I know all kinds of projects are being looked at for this.

However, the biggest problem is with older single family dwellings with two electric vehicles. The capacity of supply to a average house is 100A single phase with older properties being fused at 80A or even 60A. An 80A supply can't charge two cars at full power delivery speed and run household goods at the same time for example (or run an electric charger and a decent size power shower if we are moving away from gas for water heating). Likewise the local power distribution from substation to homes was sized with diversity in mind (this is where a calculated assumption is made that not everybody will be using a full 100A all of the time so cabling can be sized for only a proportion of the full size required). The obvious solution is to go to the situation used in most of Europe and supply 3 phase power to all new domestic dwellings as some trade bodies are pushing for but this will not help older properties. Likewise this has its own problems e.g. domestic size 3 phase distribution boards are pretty much non-existent in the UK and a 3 phase supply is inherently more dangerous and requires things like phase separation to be taken into account which most people will not be at all familiar with.

There are no easy answers to this that don't require wholesale replacement of large amounts of cabling unless people are prepared to accept having there car supply remotely switchable by the DNO to manage demand. The third generation of smart meters is being designed with the capacity to selectively disconnect parts of loads with separate terminals to allow for this. I'm not sure people will be prepared to have a situation where they get up in the morning and the vehicle they rely on to commute to work will not have enough charge because when it was timed to come on the DNO saw too much load locally. Yes it is being worked on but I'm not sure people are going to like the solution at all.

Likewise local distribution systems will require redesign to accept large amounts of power back to the grid but this is a much more solvable problem as the issue is at the distribution end rather than private properties.

 

[paul1609]

The issue I'm hearing from contacts in the local DNO (Distribution Network Operator, the people who take power from the national grid and direct it to homes in an area i.e. your actual electricity supplier vs. who charges you) is capacity at the local level. I know all kinds of projects are being looked at for this.

However, the biggest problem is with older single family dwellings with two electric vehicles. The capacity of supply to a average house is 100A single phase with older properties being fused at 80A or even 60A. An 80A supply can't charge two cars at full power delivery speed and run household goods at the same time for example (or run an electric charger and a decent size power shower if we are moving away from gas for water heating). Likewise the local power distribution from substation to homes was sized with diversity in mind (this is where a calculated assumption is made that not everybody will be using a full 100A all of the time so cabling can be sized for only a proportion of the full size required). The obvious solution is to go to the situation used in most of Europe and supply 3 phase power to all new domestic dwellings as some trade bodies are pushing for but this will not help older properties. Likewise this has its own problems e.g. domestic size 3 phase distribution boards are pretty much non-existent in the UK and a 3 phase supply is inherently more dangerous and requires things like phase separation to be taken into account which most people will not be at all familiar with.

There are no easy answers to this that don't require wholesale replacement of large amounts of cabling unless people are prepared to accept having there car supply remotely switchable by the DNO to manage demand. The third generation of smart meters is being designed with the capacity to selectively disconnect parts of loads with separate terminals to allow for this. I'm not sure people will be prepared to have a situation where they get up in the morning and the vehicle they rely on to commute to work will not have enough charge because when it was timed to come on the DNO saw too much load locally. Yes it is being worked on but I'm not sure people are going to like the solution at all.

Likewise local distribution systems will require redesign to accept large amounts of power back to the grid but this is a much more solvable problem as the issue is at the distribution end rather than private properties.

The situation is much worse than you describe because of diversity factors designed in to local distribution. There is no way the local networks can supply at the sum of all the fuses in individual properties. I was trying to find the figures used in the local distribution network in my college notes but I think it is assumed that the average consumption in a terrace house is something like 5A with a short term max of 30A, the average electrical consumption in the UK today is only around 8 to 10 kWh per day per household.
If you want to supply 2 EV charging points and an air source heat pump in each dwelling you are really looking at renewing the entire local distribution network.

 

[Elecman]

DNO diversity was based on 2kw per dwelling max

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The situation is much worse than you describe because of diversity factors designed in to local distribution. There is no way the local networks can supply at the sum of all the fuses in individual properties.

If you want to supply 2 EV charging points and an air source heat pump in each dwelling you are really looking at renewing the entire local distribution network.

So putting my rail and electrification enthusiasts hat on, I hope all that is costed in a decarbonisation strategy to make it fair to rail. That sounds like horrendous cost.

 

[Randomer]

To be honest rail electrification is required to be fed from what is in practice a completely separate high voltage network (at least for 25kv) so the challenges are very different in provisioning supplies to areas that aren't necessarily that close to the HV network. I suspect that it will be seen as a separate issue.

DNO diversity was based on 2kw per dwelling max

One of my reference books puts it at 4Kw per single family domestic dwelling but I suspect that the figures will have changed hugely over the years and very probably by area as well.

If you want to supply 2 EV charging points and an air source heat pump in each dwelling you are really looking at renewing the entire local distribution network.

My thoughts precisely but certainly less senior people on the design side at my DNO (to be clear I don't work for them) are effectively saying that senior management are absolutely against even suggesting this as a potential solution to the point that it will not even be entertained in meetings.

 

[hwl]

The issue I'm hearing from contacts in the local DNO (Distribution Network Operator, the people who take power from the national grid and direct it to homes in an area i.e. your actual electricity supplier vs. who charges you) is capacity at the local level. I know all kinds of projects are being looked at for this.

However, the biggest problem is with older single family dwellings with two electric vehicles. The capacity of supply to a average house is 100A single phase with older properties being fused at 80A or even 60A. An 80A supply can't charge two cars at full power delivery speed and run household goods at the same time for example (or run an electric charger and a decent size power shower if we are moving away from gas for water heating). Likewise the local power distribution from substation to homes was sized with diversity in mind (this is where a calculated assumption is made that not everybody will be using a full 100A all of the time so cabling can be sized for only a proportion of the full size required). The obvious solution is to go to the situation used in most of Europe and supply 3 phase power to all new domestic dwellings as some trade bodies are pushing for but this will not help older properties. Likewise this has its own problems e.g. domestic size 3 phase distribution boards are pretty much non-existent in the UK and a 3 phase supply is inherently more dangerous and requires things like phase separation to be taken into account which most people will not be at all familiar with.

There are no easy answers to this that don't require wholesale replacement of large amounts of cabling unless people are prepared to accept having there car supply remotely switchable by the DNO to manage demand. The third generation of smart meters is being designed with the capacity to selectively disconnect parts of loads with separate terminals to allow for this. I'm not sure people will be prepared to have a situation where they get up in the morning and the vehicle they rely on to commute to work will not have enough charge because when it was timed to come on the DNO saw too much load locally. Yes it is being worked on but I'm not sure people are going to like the solution at all.

Likewise local distribution systems will require redesign to accept large amounts of power back to the grid but this is a much more solvable problem as the issue is at the distribution end rather than private properties.

I witnessed DfT being told this a decade ago, due to DfT staff rotation this knowledge will have been lost several times over in that decade...

DNO diversity was based on 2kw per dwelling max

Technically 2kVA but that is splitting hairs! The combined DNO future thinking is that it would need to be 8kVA to cope with airsource HP and a single decent EV charger.

 

[paul1609]

I witnessed DfT being told this a decade ago, due to DfT staff rotation this knowledge will have been lost several times over in that decade...


Technically 2kVA but that is splitting hairs! The combined DNO future thinking is that it would need to be 8kVA to cope with airsource HP and a single decent EV charger.

Is that being specified for the new estates that are being built after 2025 with no gas heating? Id like to bet not but how much is a new connection going to cost on that basis or are we all going to pay through higher kWh prices (again?)

 

[Randomer]

Is that being specified for the new estates that are being built after 2025 with no gas heating? Id like to bet not but how much is a new connection going to cost on that basis or are we all going to pay through higher kWh prices (again?)

The specification for new installations in domestic dwellings is being argued over quite a bit currently. Some of the trade bodies are strongly pushing for 3 phase installations but this is being met with opposition from others. The cost of doing so would actually be not that much higher for the DNO, mainly in the cost of 3 phase metering but this would eventually come down with more installations being done. Essentially you are running a slightly more expensive cable to each home (needs more cores for the extra phases) but arguable the wiring in the street which is already 3 phase is simpler. I've been told it also makes returning power to the grid from solar PV or battery storage much easier for the DNO to accommodate but I'm unclear as to how this works in practice.

Personally I can see arguments for both single phase installations with less diversity or three phase installations with less diversity but more than single phase. Arguably 3 phase actually makes sense for certain "in home" items like electric car chargers and large induction hobs for example (you can use smaller cables for a given power rating). Most of these already come with the capability to be wired either way on the device itself thanks to them being sold in Europe where they would be installed as 3 phase powered. I'm aware of a couple of models of car chargers that can't deliver the highest possible power rating on UK installations when wired an single phase.

Some of the first installations have been done on "normal" domestic dwellings with 3 phase supplies but as far as I am aware they have all been retrofits, mostly as show cases. I strongly suspect by 2025 the specification will have changed considerably from the current situation.

 

[Elecman]

The specification for new installations in domestic dwellings is being argued over quite a bit currently. Some of the trade bodies are strongly pushing for 3 phase installations but this is being met with opposition from others. The cost of doing so would actually be not that much higher for the DNO, mainly in the cost of 3 phase metering but this would eventually come down with more installations being done. Essentially you are running a slightly more expensive cable to each home (needs more cores for the extra phases) but arguable the wiring in the street which is already 3 phase is simpler. I've been told it also makes returning power to the grid from solar PV or battery storage much easier for the DNO to accommodate but I'm unclear as to how this works in practice.

Personally I can see arguments for both single phase installations with less diversity or three phase installations with less diversity but more than single phase. Arguably 3 phase actually makes sense for certain "in home" items like electric car chargers and large induction hobs for example (you can use smaller cables for a given power rating). Most of these already come with the capability to be wired either way on the device itself thanks to them being sold in Europe where they would be installed as 3 phase powered. I'm aware of a couple of models of car chargers that can't deliver the highest possible power rating on UK installations when wired an single phase.

Some of the first installations have been done on "normal" domestic dwellings with 3 phase supplies but as far as I am aware they have all been retrofits, mostly as show cases. I strongly suspect by 2025 the specification will have changed considerably from the current situation.

Metering is the responsibility of the suppliers Meter Operator not the DNO

 

[hwl]

Is that being specified for the new estates that are being built after 2025 with no gas heating? Id like to bet not but how much is a new connection going to cost on that basis or are we all going to pay through higher kWh prices (again?)

At a very educated guess: via a higher DUOS charge component on the bill.

 

[Elecman]

At a very educated guess: via a higher DUOS charge component on the bill.

Correct

 

[ABB125]

My solution: each property is given a mini nuclear plant (around 1m cube) to stick somewhere in the garden/loft/elsewhere. Solves all the problems in one go!





Quite how you could make a nuclear plant that small I'm not sure, as the safety lining would basically be the entire thickness!

We do appear to have strayed slightly off topic, so I apologise for being a part of that.

 

[HSTEd]

Breaking existing LV mains is relatively cheap though, worst come to worst you can just break the feeder in the middle and install a unit substation on a pole mount in the street.
Only a small distances of 11kV main is required for this.

The other alternative is that the existing distribution cables are largely rated for ~1kV phase to phase and 600V phase to neutral.
So we could put autotransformers in every house.

Is that being specified for the new estates that are being built after 2025 with no gas heating? Id like to bet not but how much is a new connection going to cost on that basis or are we all going to pay through higher kWh prices (again?)

It's unlikely to cost that much - the extra aluminium in the cable from the street to the house, and a slightly higher density of substations.
The costs will be offset by not having to install any gas infrastructure.

Myself I would prefer a more aggressive solution given the likely escalation on power consumption as heating, hot water and cars all go electric.

 

[mr_jrt]

My solution: each property is given a mini nuclear plant (around 1m cube) to stick somewhere in the garden/loft/elsewhere. Solves all the problems in one go!

Quite how you could make a nuclear plant that small I'm not sure, as the safety lining would basically be the entire thickness!

That's essentially what a nuclear spacecraft has, so it's not that outlandish.

How about some of these then?

The Days of Atomic Locomotives in America

In the mid-1950s, Dr. Lyle B. Borst—a physics professor at the University of Utah who had formerly been a reactor designer with the Atomic Energy Commission—and his students in his Physics 280 Nuclear Technology course had a great idea.

io9.com

 

[The Ham]

Breaking existing LV mains is relatively cheap though, worst come to worst you can just break the feeder in the middle and install a unit substation on a pole mount in the street.
Only a small distances of 11kV main is required for this.

The other alternative is that the existing distribution cables are largely rated for ~1kV phase to phase and 600V phase to neutral.
So we could put autotransformers in every house.



It's unlikely to cost that much - the extra aluminium in the cable from the street to the house, and a slightly higher density of substations.
The costs will be offset by not having to install any gas infrastructure.

Myself I would prefer a more aggressive solution given the likely escalation on power consumption as heating, hot water and cars all go electric.

I don't know if it's changed, but about 10 years ago a developer would have to pay for electric connections but would be paid by the gas companies to have gas connections (due to future income from the gas supply).

As such for the development in question the installation of the gas network funded a lot of the installation of the other services. Therefore even just removing that would have a significant cost to the developer before adding other installation costs to the electric grid.

I suspect that whilst there's a need for improvements to the network that many existing estates would manage as a lot of cars could charge off a kettle amount of power draw over night as they would have only done up to 40 miles that day with quite a few only having done that much in the last 2 or 3 days. That then allows those few houses in an area which have done long runs to charge at a higher rate without blowing the network.

Chances are that each street or couple of streets could be provided with a couple of rapid chargers to provide rapid top up for those with higher milage. Yes it wouldn't be as good as on your driveway, but it would reduce the need for every house to have significantly more power to it when such a draw might not be required very much.

That doesn't solve you're heating power draw issues, however with really good insulation and using heat pumps (air or ground) and solar heating (rather hot water systems or personal solar generation being used to run the immersion heater/charging cars more than selling to the grid, more useful during the summer months I know) the power draw could be limited compared to the 1990's style electric heater systems.

For those with a need for high power draw it could be possible to provide a second single phase connection to run their (say) car charging from.

That's not to say that wouldn't be a need for upgrades or changes to the way things are done for new builds, but rather to say that there could be ways around some issues without giving every house a 3 phase connection (now useful for older developments).

 

[Meerkat]

Is it too late for meters to have layered charging - ie higher rates for higher power draw?
Might encourage people to use a slow car charge when they are in no hurry

 

[Bald Rick]

Is it too late for meters to have layered charging - ie higher rates for higher power draw?
Might encourage people to use a slow car charge when they are in no hurry

The future of metering (and car charging) will be a lot smarter than that!

You will be able to set your charge ‘want’ via your phone, and then the car / meter will work it all out for you in the most efficient way, responding to variations in the price of electricity. You will have the facility to set how much range you need by, say 0700 tomorrow, then the car / meter system will know how much charge you need, the forecast forward prices, and then book you in the right time to charge most cheaply.

If you don’t need full range the next day, and aren’t going anywhere until later in the day (like me, today) It may well also charge more than is necessary overnight to make use of cheap electricity (it was about £12/MWh at 0600 today), and sell it back when it’s more pricey (currently £36). A car with a 100kwh battery could easily make you a few quid a day if you’re not using it much. Of course as more and more people do this, the price variations in electricity will become smaller on an intra-day basis, but there will still be opportunity inter-day as and when the wind blows / sun comes out.

 

[Elecman]

Is it too late for meters to have layered charging - ie higher rates for higher power draw?
Might encourage people to use a slow car charge when they are in no hurry

No modern meters can be reprogrammed remotely and read consumption at any chosen time interval from a few seconds upwards, the billing would be based on the downloaded data the problem being that you are effectively changing the tariff of the customer and that would need thier consent