No 10 rule breaking gatherings during 2020.

[Yew]

If getting involved in a war saves Johnson, then I don't know what this country is coming to.

But I fail to understand all those people who decided, having been against the Tories in 1981/82, decided to vote Tory in 1983 due to the Falklands war, despite the huge damage caused by Thatcher and her policies earlier in the 80s.

If you’re going to reply to me, please read the comment I was actually talking about.

 

[nw1]

If you’re going to reply to me, please read the comment I was actually talking about.

I wasn't disagreeing with your comment, but rather, supporting your comment that it would be crazy, and rather unlikely, if a potential conflict (the "Waterloo moment") saved him. Then, I got sidetracked (I will admit) into a slight rant about Labour-Tory switchers in 1983, though as another poster said that might have been for other reasons.

Easily countered with "Vote Boris, get Boris".

Personally I can't wait for the news channels to start captioning Boris as:

Boris Johnson
Conservative Party Leader

Even better, "Vote Tory, get Boris".

 

[greyman42]

Then there’s the way a lot of restrictions were done. Look at all the fuss surrounding masks for an example of a consequence to his clumsiness. We now find out that clearly he didn’t believe in his own policies or he would have made at least some attempt to observe them.

I don't believe he believed in the policy of mandating masks and that is why he gave us the exemption rule, which i gladly used.

I wish you were right. I’ll only believe that when restrictions are gone in EU countries and the other UK nations.

What they do in other countries has no bearing on England.

People want all the Covid circus, yet when they get the inevitable consequences such as the NI rise, or the high inflation, they don’t like it.

Spot on.

We should have had a push for normality as soon as all vulnerable people had had the opportunity to have their second vaccine.

Many of us were, but were handicapped by those who wanted restrictions, lockdowns and working from home to go on forever.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

In reality he has been buffeted in a storm, pulled by SAGE in one direction, and elements of the Conservative party on the other, and scared to nail his colours too firmly to the mast because deep down he knows he simply would not be able to defend a position were he to end up in front of a proper scrutinising inquiry - the type of enquiry where he can’t bat off scrutiny by hurling insults or making puerile jokes.

All public enquiries are pointless waste of time and money. Look at Grenfell its last reported cost was £117m spent by public bodies let alone all the companies costs. Mainly gone on expensive lawyers. Then they will produce a glossy report perhaps six years after it happened. There will be a media storm govt will say lessons must be learned and we will move on and very little will change.

As i say public enquiries are a waste of time and money.

 

[brad465]

The Mirror are reporting that one of the pictures the police are using in their investigation shows Johnson with a beer at his birthday lockdown party, with Sunak also in the picture. The actual picture hasn't been disclosed, but one wonders how long before such a picture does get out (worth recalling the Met have said they have over 300 photos in their investigation):

Bombshell pic shows Boris Johnson holding beer at lockdown birthday party

Sources said that pictures taken by the official No10 photographer have been handed over to Scotland Yard for their investigation into the Downing Street parties - including one of the PM with a can of beer

www.mirror.co.uk

Police have a photograph of Boris Johnson holding a can of a beer at his lockdown birthday party in June 2020, the Mirror has been told.

The Prime Minister is pictured standing next to Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who is holding a soft drink, in No10’s Cabinet Room.


Sources said Mr Johnson appeared to be raising his can of Estrella beer towards the camera in a toast.

The bombshell image was thought to have been taken by Mr Johnson’s official taxpayer-funded photographer who was documenting the event.

It is thought to be among 300 pictures submitted to the Metropolitan Police as evidence of rule-busting gatherings by senior civil servant Sue Gray.

These are believed to include photos taken at parties and those taken from security-system cameras showing when people entered and exited buildings.

Multiple images taken by the official No 10 photographer, Andrew Parsons, are also believed to have been handed over to Scotland Yard.

Downing Street has admitted staff “gathered briefly” at a surprise birthday celebration organised by Carrie Johnson - but said the PM only stayed 10 minutes.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The Mirror are reporting that one of the pictures the police are using in their investigation shows Johnson with a beer at his birthday lockdown party, with Sunak also in the picture. The actual picture hasn't been disclosed, but one wonders how long before such a picture does get out (worth recalling the Met have said they have over 300 photos in their investigation):

Bombshell pic shows Boris Johnson holding beer at lockdown birthday party

Sources said that pictures taken by the official No10 photographer have been handed over to Scotland Yard for their investigation into the Downing Street parties - including one of the PM with a can of beer

www.mirror.co.uk

Oh might get a couple more MPs to write a letter but they still won't get to 54 as majority of Tory MPs are spineless and only interested in themselves.

 

[bramling]

Oh might get a couple more MPs to write a letter but they still won't get to 54 as majority of Tory MPs are spineless and only interested in themselves.

I’m not sure getting 54 signatures is itself the problem. They could likely easily get that now I suspect…

…were it not for the problem that this is only phase 1 of the process, and it seems almost certain Johnson would fight on, this triggering the no confidence vote. Your potential 54 signatures will very aware that Johnson could likely win the vote, which then locks him in for a further year (unless the rules are changed).

It is very difficult in this country to dispose of an unwanted prime minister. I’ve no doubt he will be disposed of, but as to when I wouldn’t like to lay a bet on that.

Ultimately his character is going to be what brings him down. Whether it’s sooner or later, he’s going to have one upset too many.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I’m not sure getting 54 signatures is itself the problem. They could likely easily get that now I suspect…

…were it not for the problem that this is only phase 1 of the process, and it seems almost certain Johnson would fight on, this triggering the no confidence vote. Your potential 54 signatures will very aware that Johnson could likely win the vote, which then locks him in for a further year (unless the rules are changed).

It is very difficult in this country to dispose of an unwanted prime minister. I’ve no doubt he will be disposed of, but as to when I wouldn’t like to lay a bet on that.

Ultimately his character is going to be what brings him down. Whether it’s sooner or later, he’s going to have one upset too many.

Unfortunately I have to concur and I suspect this is why there hasn't been a rash of letters although the longer it drags on the closer it gets to the local elections and the pressure from local conservative associations might finally push them over the line.

 

[Gloster]

I really don’t see them leaving it too long: if they can’t get it over with and go into the local elections with a new leader or the old one having assured his position, they will leave it. The last thing they want is having to campaign while busy tearing each other apart. Of course, they could have an early election with Johnson just scraping through and go into the locals with a leader who is weakened in everybody’s estimation except his own. I can’t see him doing a Thatcher and retiring despite just winning because of the way the wind is blowing.

 

[bramling]

I really don’t see them leaving it too long: if they can’t get it over with and go into the local elections with a new leader or the old one having assured his position, they will leave it. The last thing they want is having to campaign while busy tearing each other apart. Of course, they could have an early election with Johnson just scraping through and go into the locals with a leader who is weakened in everybody’s estimation except his own. I can’t see him doing a Thatcher and retiring despite just winning because of the way the wind is blowing.

There’s still the issue of who on earth replaces him.

Sunak’s best chance is probably now - much longer, and he could be the chancellor who caused middle England to have all their savings devalued.

This is why replacing Johnson simply isn’t straightforward. This year’s focus is going to be on economics, and Sunak is potentially vulnerable on this, especially to the core vote, and more importantly the party membership - the people who will likely be making the actual decision. Photoshoots inside curry houses aren’t going to do much to help, I suspect.

It’s not a straightforward choice by any means, and add into that the possibility Johnson won’t go without a fuss. It will either be a messy fight to the last, or a childish tantrum hissy-fit, one way or other it’ll be rocky.

They’re rather boxed into a corner. I think most probably now agree Johnson is a serious liability and is unfit for office. But that’s leading to a leadership headache at a time not really of their choosing nor desire. The only positive for the Conservatives is that Starmer and Labour just aren’t cutting through.

Unfortunately I have to concur and I suspect this is why there hasn't been a rash of letters although the longer it drags on the closer it gets to the local elections and the pressure from local conservative associations might finally push them over the line.

Yes the constant drip, drip, drip is eventually going to cause the bucket to overflow. He’s finished, but when is anyone’s guess.

The local elections I think are going to be a disaster (and there’s plenty of scope for more Peppa Pig type gaffes during the lead-up). How much of a disaster will depend on what voters do. If many simply stay at home then it won’t be quite so bad, but a Lib Dem bounce will be concerning given the recent by-elections.

 

[brad465]

The local elections I think are going to be a disaster (and there’s plenty of scope for more Peppa Pig type gaffes during the lead-up). How much of a disaster will depend on what voters do. If many simply stay at home then it won’t be quite so bad, but a Lib Dem bounce will be concerning given the recent by-elections.

They're local elections, usually the winner in local elections is apathy/abstention. That said usually abstention favours whichever parties are not in charge in a given area, so low turnout won't actually help the Government in Tory-run councils.

They’re rather boxed into a corner. I think most probably now agree Johnson is a serious liability and is unfit for office. But that’s leading to a leadership headache at a time not really of their choosing nor desire. The only positive for the Conservatives is that Starmer and Labour just aren’t cutting through.

There was talk of a GE this year, as the Government can't see things getting any better before 2024 regarding the B-word and other issues, including cost of living and other covid fallout. Partygate has almost certainly put a stop to that, and buys Labour more time to get their act together. One problem they have which explains, "not cutting through", is the party finances are in poor shape after 3 elections in 4 years and having to pay out settlements due to the previous leader's shenanigans. The longer we wait for a GE, the more time they have to raise finances, thus the more they can get their message across.

 

[nw1]

They're local elections, usually the winner in local elections is apathy/abstention. That said usually abstention favours whichever parties are not in charge in a given area, so low turnout won't actually help the Government in Tory-run councils.

Not sure if this is always the case: one pattern in local elections is that the 'blue rinse brigade' always vote, while others might not, which favours the Tories. Add to that the ridiculous FPTP system in place for local elections, in which we get three councillors, all voted for separately in different years - so a ward with 40% Tory, 30% Labour, 30% Lib Dem vote gets three Tories. Democracy, not.

So I think this year, anyone p***ed off with Johnson should get off their rear-end and vote in these local elections.

 

[greyman42]

So I think this year, anyone p***ed off with Johnson should get off their rear-end and vote in these local elections.

And vote for who. A party that was advocating more lockdowns and restrictions?
I certainly will not be voting Labour. ( I am aware there are other options)

 

[bramling]

Had an unexpected appearance from the Lib Dems on my doorstep this afternoon, certainly capitalising on the whole Boris meltdown situation, no mention of Brexit at all.

I’ve fired off another email to my MP, this time focusing on the crass inappropriate nature of the Jimmy Saville comments. Don’t expect much in the way of meaningful response - my last response was a standard “wait for Sue Gray”.

 

[bramling]

That's interesting.Perhaps it's the Lib Dems time to shine ! For a left of centre party, they didn't strike me as so wedded to the idea of restrictions as the other parties.

The Lib Dems rarely like to nail their colours too firmly to the mast on any issue, as to do so would spoil their oft-used strategy of being the protest party, for which their campaigning often involves saying different things to different people. The exception was, of course, Brexit, and taking a firm line didn’t exactly work well there.

At the moment I suspect the Lib Dems might do quite well, especially in the local elections. Many Conservative voters are repulsed by Boris Johnson, reluctant to vote Labour, but not quite on the verge of not voting or spoiling a paper. UKIP is essentially old news now. This essentially only leaves voting Lib Dem. For local elections there isn’t a massive risk in doing that, though it possibly wouldn’t translate to a general election. I’d say “partygate” will likely lead to this outcome.

 

[John Luxton]

The Lib Dems rarely like to nail their colours too firmly to the mast on any issue, as to do so would spoil their oft-used strategy of being the protest party, for which their campaigning often involves saying different things to different people. The exception was, of course, Brexit, and taking a firm line didn’t exactly work well there.

At the moment I suspect the Lib Dems might do quite well, especially in the local elections. Many Conservative voters are repulsed by Boris Johnson, reluctant to vote Labour, but not quite on the verge of not voting or spoiling a paper. UKIP is essentially old news now. This essentially only leaves voting Lib Dem. For local elections there isn’t a massive risk in doing that, though it possibly wouldn’t translate to a general election. I’d say “partygate” will likely lead to this outcome.

Surely the home for alienated real Tories must be Reform UK:

Against Restrictions
Low Tax
Small Government
Robust on Immigration.

They must be the home for true patriotic Tories?

 

[yorksrob]

Surely the home for alienated real Tories must be Reform UK:

Against Restrictions
Low Tax
Small Government
Robust on Immigration.

They must be the home for true patriotic Tories?

That sounds fine for Conservative with a big C.

Perhaps not so much for Conservative with a small c.

 

[John Luxton]

That sounds fine for Conservative with a big C.

Perhaps not so much for Conservative with a small c.

I can't see what even small c conservatives would find objectionable. Surely everyone wants low tax and small government?

 

[yorksrob]

I can't see what even small c conservatives would find objectionable. Surely everyone wants low tax and small government?

Well, I want low tax - but not so low that the state can't perform the functions I believe it ought to perform.

 

[John Luxton]

Well, I want low tax - but not so low that the state can't perform the functions I believe it ought to perform.

I think the state should perform as little as it needs to anything else user pays.

 

[yorksrob]

I think the state should perform as little as it needs to anything else user pays.

I suspect that's a large C conservative position.

 

[Shrop]

We seem to have reached the point where Boris has cheated his way out of punishment for Partygate. To use one analogy (of numerous possible ones), if I exceed the speed limit and I get stopped by the police, I could try to point out to them that I've done many, many miles at legal speeds, often doing good things for other people. I firmly believe that they wouldn't accept this as a reason to let me off a fine, and yet this is exactly the tactic used by loyal Boris supporters in Parliament. It somehow works for them (which is why I'd say it's cheating), and it's been protracted for so long now that people and even the press are now so tired of it all that the reluctance to let it all go, has waned to such an extent that Boris seems likely to stay in power.
For this reason, among others, our present voting system now sees vast numbers of people voting negatively, ie masses of people vote Labour simply because they don't want a Tory Government. And for other reasons, people vote Tory simply to avoid having a Labour Government. It also follows that while many people despair of the present Government, they're not convinced about any likely alternatives.
So, just suppose we had a system of proportional representation? After all that would still be democratic, arguably more so than the present system, and potentially a lot less of a negative system, ie people would be more likely to vote for what they want rather than against what they don't want. So although Tory and Labour politicians and voters alike claim the present system is the only way to provide a stable Government, if what we have now is that stability, do we really want it? One might observe that given the shower in Parliament right now, in significant numbers on all sides of the House, would we really have much to lose by giving PR a try?

 

[bramling]

We seem to have reached the point where Boris has cheated his way out of punishment for Partygate. To use one analogy (of numerous possible ones), if I exceed the speed limit and I get stopped by the police, I could try to point out to them that I've done many, many miles at legal speeds, often doing good things for other people. I firmly believe that they wouldn't accept this as a reason to let me off a fine, and yet this is exactly the tactic used by loyal Boris supporters in Parliament. It somehow works for them (which is why I'd say it's cheating), and it's been protracted for so long now that people and even the press are now so tired of it all that the reluctance to let it all go, has waned to such an extent that Boris seems likely to stay in power.
For this reason, among others, our present voting system now sees vast numbers of people voting negatively, ie masses of people vote Labour simply because they don't want a Tory Government. And for other reasons, people vote Tory simply to avoid having a Labour Government. It also follows that while many people despair of the present Government, they're not convinced about any likely alternatives.
So, just suppose we had a system of proportional representation? After all that would still be democratic, arguably more so than the present system, and potentially a lot less of a negative system, ie people would be more likely to vote for what they want rather than against what they don't want. So although Tory and Labour politicians and voters alike claim the present system is the only way to provide a stable Government, it what we have now is that stability,m do we really want it? One might observe that given the shower in Parliament right now, in significant numbers on all sides of the House, would we really have much to lose by giving PR a try?

I wouldn’t agree Boris has got away with it. What has riled people just as much as the parties themselves is the arrogant way he had handled the whole affair, to add to the increasing list of such things. It’s reached the tipping point where people aren’t finding it funny any more.

Johnson is gone, it’s just a case of how that point is reached. There is no way they will let him fight another general election.

 

[Busaholic]

I can't see what even small c conservatives would find objectionable. Surely everyone wants low tax and small government?

And motherhood and apple pie. Actually, no, simplistic populism.

 

[Shrop]

I wouldn’t agree Boris has got away with it. What has riled people just as much as the parties themselves is the arrogant way he had handled the whole affair, to add to the increasing list of such things. It’s reached the tipping point where people aren’t finding it funny any more.

Johnson is gone, it’s just a case of how that point is reached. There is no way they will let him fight another general election.

When Trump was up for impeachment after the White House invasion, a lot of people thought his time was up and he would never again be prominent in politics. Okay, it's a different country, but you might think refusing to give up power in a manner which leads to multiple deaths, is worse than just having a few parties. Just saying ...

 

[nw1]

Had an unexpected appearance from the Lib Dems on my doorstep this afternoon, certainly capitalising on the whole Boris meltdown situation, no mention of Brexit at all.

I’ve fired off another email to my MP, this time focusing on the crass inappropriate nature of the Jimmy Saville comments. Don’t expect much in the way of meaningful response - my last response was a standard “wait for Sue Gray”.

I hope the electorate will take an appropriate line come the next election with "sheep" MPs, which yours evidently is. We could start tacking the economic situation by sacking all the useless MPs that parrot the party line and act with sycophancy towards the leader - essentially they may as well be replaced by robots for all the lack of independent thought they so clearly exhibit.

 

[Cowley]

We’re finding that there’s so much cross over between this thread and this one now that it’s going to be easier to keep the discussion just in the one as a way of cutting down on work.

Thanks everyone, you haven’t seen me because I wasn’t at any of the party’s.