North to South Wales Train Links and a North Wales Metro

[TravelDream]

Note: I put this thread is speculation as there is nothing concrete whatsoever so anything discussed would be speculative.

Just announced today is a sort of confidence and supply agreement between the Welsh Labour government and Plaid Cymru on how Plaid will support the Labour government following an agreed agenda.

Part of the agenda says this:
''Public transport – Ask Transport for Wales
(TfW) to explore the development of transport
links between North and South Wales, including
how to protect potential travel corridors on the
west coast of Wales. We will continue to press
ahead with Metro developments to improve
connectivity and encourage people to switch
to public transport. We will ask TfW to work
with local authorities in North West Wales and
the Welsh Government to develop plans for an
integrated transport system.''

https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-11/cooperation-agreement-2021.pdf

Now this is nothing concrete, but I think it's clear that both parties want 'better' connections between south and north. Whether that's faster services, more frequent services or something else.
And, yes, I know some will say it's better to improve North Wales to Liverpool or Cardiff to Manchester, but that goes against political reality where politicians want better services between south and north Wales.

So what ideas do you think TFW could put forward to improve North-South links?

 

[JonathanH]

So what ideas do you think TFW could put forward to improve North-South links?

Integrating buses into the railway system to make good the missing links.

 

[TravelDream]

I totally agree, but it is easier said than done.

The Welsh Government runs the trains, but buses are not regulated and Arriva would want cash. It'd also be very difficult to integrate much higher rail fares with lower bus fares.

 

[Envoy]

I think that Plaid Cymru want to see the route of the former Carmarthen to Aberystwyth rail line protected along with any possible link between the Cambrian line & Bangor. (Some places have already seen development).

 

[StKeverne1497]

While it would be a lovely trip, I do wonder how practical it would be to re-open Carmarthen - Aberystwyth given how slow the journey used to be. I suppose it might encourage day trips from one to the other.

I think there are several North - South problems.

You can currently travel by rail between Cardiff and Bangor, but it can take up to five hours. I don't think going up the west coast would improve this, and going "up the middle" would both avoid some major population centres and require some major engineering because of all the hills, unless you reopened lines along the route taken by the Brecon & Merthyr (partly now the Brecon Mountain Railway) and the Mid Wales, which would be very scenic but I imagine also very slow.

I believe the air link between Cardiff and Anglesey is currently suspended? If it runs, no train is able to compete.

The A470 has had big improvements up to Merthyr (arguably, Brecon) in the last 30 years, but beyond that it can get tedious.

I understand there is still a coach link. Back in the day the "Traws Cambria" connected the University towns - Cardiff, Swansea, Carmarthen, Lampeter, Aberystwyth & Bangor - and was a bit of a thrill-seekers' ride, does such a route still run? If the coach could be replaced by a rail link I think there'd be some takers, though I don't imagine the line going to Lampeter. The question is whether it would be quicker to do Cardiff - Aberystwyth or Cardiff - Bangor via this route than via the current routes.

Politically, yes, "improving north-south links" has been a desire for many decades, but I suspect continuing to improve the A470 is cheaper and simpler and that if Carmarthen - Aberystwyth is on the cards it's purely political. After all, it runs through some quite strong Plaid-voting areas!

I have also often wondered if it would be possible to close the gap between Caernarfon and Bangor to make a nice circuit involving the Ffestiniog and Welsh Highland lines

 

[Envoy]

Connecting Aberystwyth with Carmarthen is not just about connecting these two places. It would surely form part of a shorter route say from Newtown to Pembrokeshire or Llanelli to Machynlleth. Building a new line would also mean higher speeds than that of the original. It is regrettable that modern track has not been put on most of the Cambrian line to enable higher speeds and less maintenance. (Same applies to the south Pembrokeshire line via Tenby & the Heart of Wales Line).

The Marches Line will always remain as the main route linking north & south Wales and has the benefit of largely avoiding difficult terrain and connecting the large population population centres in England with that in south Wales.

It is regrettable that the Welsh Government have virtually banned all new road building citing ‘the climate emergency’. No way should a towns such as Crickhowell, Builth Wells and Rhayader have ‘A’ roads going through the centre with long distance cross Wales traffic. (Recently they refused to build the planned Llanbedr by-pass = a village between between Barmouth & Harlech).

 

[Dr Day]

It depends how much money WG/TfW (the authority - not the train operator) want to spend - on both one-off infrastructure and the ongoing operational and maintenance costs - versus the value of the connectivity benefits new/improved links would bring.

We don't need another thread on Carmarthen-Aberystwyth!

 

[TravelDream]

It depends how much money WG/TfW (the authority - not the train operator) want to spend - on both one-off infrastructure and the ongoing operational and maintenance costs - versus the value of the connectivity benefits new/improved links would bring.

We don't need another thread on Carmarthen-Aberystwyth

I think, in reality, they want to spend nothing more on additional infrastructure. Services might be different and there might be funding for a few more north-south services per day, but not much else.
This is mainly a move to placate Plaid Cymru who are supporting Labour in their legislative programme.
On the last point, you're definitely right.

 

[wobman]

I think, in reality, they want to spend nothing more on additional infrastructure. Services might be different and there might be funding for a few more north-south services per day, but not much else.
This is mainly a move to placate Plaid Cymru who are supporting Labour in their legislative programme.
On the last point, you're definitely right.

I know tfw have some ambitious plans, you only have to look at the amount of directors and senior management they've added to the franchise.
There's a big push for integrated transport with buses, one place to be transformed is Wrexham general Station.
The plan is that in the future to have hubs at stations, you buy 1 ticket for the bus and train and jump from one to the other. They are also building community hubs at stations, Wrexham and Abergele plus Llandudno have them so far.

The North to South Links are a political based ambition, if you ask the passengers they want better cross border connections to the big English cities. That's something tfw are working towards with Llandudno to Liverpools and Cardiff to Liverpools being a useful link.
Getting the North Wales to South Wales times down will need some hard decisions regarding which stations that need to be missed, a service with far less stops will make the journey more appealing and higher line speeds in certain areas.

 

[cle]

I know tfw have some ambitious plans, you only have to look at the amount of directors and senior management they've added to the franchise.
There's a big push for integrated transport with buses, one place to be transformed is Wrexham general Station.
The plan is that in the future to have hubs at stations, you buy 1 ticket for the bus and train and jump from one to the other. They are also building community hubs at stations, Wrexham and Abergele plus Llandudno have them so far.

The North to South Links are a political based ambition, if you ask the passengers they want better cross border connections to the big English cities. That's something tfw are working towards with Llandudno to Liverpools and Cardiff to Liverpools being a useful link.
Getting the North Wales to South Wales times down will need some hard decisions regarding which stations that need to be missed, a service with far less stops will make the journey more appealing and higher line speeds in certain areas.

The North (and South beyond Cardiff) mainlines are not even wired yet. And line speed improvements would help, and wires/speed up the Marches too. There are the better journey times - not least, people in North Wales want to go to Chester, Liverpool and Manchester. People in South Wales? Bristol and London mainly. There are investments which can improve all of those things - but I can't see anything specifically through Mid-Wales or West Wales being viable. Or even Caernarfon and down sadly.

 

[Dai Corner]

A Merthyr-Llandudno Expressway (a motorway in all but name, like the A55) would probably be the best way to improve journey times between north, mid and south Wales. But the fact remains that most Welsh travellers apart from politicians and civil servants want to go east-west rather than north-south.

There's a long thread about the Welsh Government funded TrawsCymru long distance bus services.

 

[Wolfie]

Note: I put this thread is speculation as there is nothing concrete whatsoever so anything discussed would be speculative.

Just announced today is a sort of confidence and supply agreement between the Welsh Labour government and Plaid Cymru on how Plaid will support the Labour government following an agreed agenda.

Part of the agenda says this:
''Public transport – Ask Transport for Wales
(TfW) to explore the development of transport
links between North and South Wales, including
how to protect potential travel corridors on the
west coast of Wales. We will continue to press
ahead with Metro developments to improve
connectivity and encourage people to switch
to public transport. We will ask TfW to work
with local authorities in North West Wales and
the Welsh Government to develop plans for an
integrated transport system.''

https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-11/cooperation-agreement-2021.pdf

Now this is nothing concrete, but I think it's clear that both parties want 'better' connections between south and north. Whether that's faster services, more frequent services or something else.
And, yes, I know some will say it's better to improve North Wales to Liverpool or Cardiff to Manchester, but that goes against political reality where politicians want better services between south and north Wales.

So what ideas do you think TFW could put forward to improve North-South links?

Doing what politicians, and not the people, want has led to economic disaster too many times before. Is there actually any public demand for those services?

 

[TravelDream]

Doing what politicians, and not the people, want has led to economic disaster too many times before. Is there actually any public demand for those services?

As I said in my opening post, it was inevitable someone would say this as it comes up every time north-south Wales links are talked about.

Whilst, in reality, demand isn't that high to go from north to south, it is basically irrelevant. Demand on the South Wales Mail Line in strong. Demand on the Marches lines is strong. Demand of the North Wales Mail Line is strong.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I totally agree, but it is easier said than done.

The Welsh Government runs the trains, but buses are not regulated and Arriva would want cash. It'd also be very difficult to integrate much higher rail fares with lower bus fares.

Arriva barely exists in North Wales now other than along the Coast, and almost everything is tendered. It's thus de-facto regulated.

 

[TravelDream]

Arriva barely exists in North Wales now other than along the Coast, and almost everything is tendered. It's thus de-facto regulated.

I know Arriva Buses Wales are a shadow of their former self, but they still operate most services in the big towns in North Wales and coastal routes.

To have a truly integrated system, the only way is through full regulation ala TFL.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I know Arriva Buses Wales are a shadow of their former self, but they still operate most services in the big towns in North Wales and coastal routes.

To have a truly integrated system, the only way is through full regulation ala TFL.

Yes indeed, but the places that will benefit more from integration are the more rural places with infrequent services which are all already tendered. On the Coast itself you get integration-by-default by way of frequent services.

 

[TravelDream]

Yes indeed, but the places that will benefit more from integration are the more rural places with infrequent services which are all already tendered. On the Coast itself you get integration-by-default by way of frequent services.

That's not true integration. That would require through ticketing, protection of connections, a uniform brand as well as timetabling.

 

[30907]

It is regrettable that modern track has not been put on most of the Cambrian line to enable higher speeds and less maintenance.

I thought the Cambrian as far as Talerddig was 90mph now? Certainly 60 miles in 70min to Machynlleth with 3 stops is quite decent.

It is regrettable that the Welsh Government have virtually banned all new road building citing ‘the climate emergency’. (Recently they refused to build the planned Llanbedr by-pass = a village between between Barmouth & Harlech).

Having spent a week in July in a house on that road just a mile south, it's not busy in mid season, though the narrow bridge in Llanbedr (and parked cars) causes slight delays. (PS I gather the idea was to provide access for MOD development land.)

 

[MattRat]

How would a North Wales 'Metro' even work? Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't Metro's tend to have a central area to bring people to and from, like Liverpool or Cardiff for example. What would be that central hub in North Wales?

 

[D6130]

What would be that central hub in North Wales?

Bangor?

 

[wobman]

Bangor?

Wrexham general Station is the planned N Wales hub, that's the master plan

 

[Bletchleyite]

How would a North Wales 'Metro' even work? Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't Metro's tend to have a central area to bring people to and from, like Liverpool or Cardiff for example. What would be that central hub in North Wales?

It isn't really a metro, but more a branding for higher frequency, clockface, connecting services including rail and bus. You get the same thing in Switzerland where rural local trains "im Takt" are referred to with the S-Bahn branding even though that isn't really applicable in the traditional sense.

Having said that London Overground is a metro style service with no single centre of demand.

 

[MattRat]

Wrexham general Station is the planned N Wales hub, that's the master plan

That would either require a turn around at Chester or a curve at Shotton. I know you could also then include the Wrexham to Bidston line, but if they also chose the reversal route, it would then serve England more than North Wales.

 

[HSTEd]

How would a North Wales 'Metro' even work? Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't Metro's tend to have a central area to bring people to and from, like Liverpool or Cardiff for example. What would be that central hub in North Wales?

Aren't all major population centres in North Wales basically in a straight line?

Do you need a centre where you have a linear distribution like that?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Aren't all major population centres in North Wales basically in a straight line?

Do you need a centre where you have a linear distribution like that?

East of Llandudno Junction it could be seen as an extension of Merseyrail

Other than that Chester is a major centre.

 

[MattRat]

Aren't all major population centres in North Wales basically in a straight line?

Do you need a centre where you have a linear distribution like that?

It's all about passenger density. If everyone is going to same the place or out of the same place, you have a high density and the route is profitable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's all about passenger density. If everyone is going to same the place or out of the same place, you have a high density and the route is profitable.

Almost no UK railways are profitable. Merseyrail for instance has, or had, the second highest per passenger mile subsidy in the UK, the highest being Island Line.

 

[MattRat]

Almost no UK railways are profitable. Merseyrail for instance has, or had, the second highest per passenger mile subsidy in the UK, the highest being Island Line.

Then why would TOCs bid for contracts?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Then why would TOCs bid for contracts?

Because subsidy is added, which makes it profitable for them. However the actual service makes a loss.

 

[MattRat]

Because subsidy is added, which makes it profitable for them. However the actual service makes a loss.

But they pay the Government for the contract, so any money they'd earn via subsidy, they lose via contract.