Operation Rampdown - UK Covid-19 exit strategy

[BackOnTheTrain]

I can’t quote the whole thing as on phone, but the Daily Mail claims to have seen plans for the UK’s exit strategy from Covid-19: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...papers-dismantle-key-Covid-measures-year.html

Operation Rampdown: Leaked official Covid 'exit plan' to dismantle key measures including self-isolation, mass testing and Test and Trace by early next year​

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• Britain's Covid response set to be dramatically scaled back early next year
• It's part of a secret Whitehall pandemic 'exit strategy' codenamed Rampdown
• The 160-page plan is in Government documents leaked to The Mail on Sunday
• 'Britain will have to learn to live with Covid as an 'endemic' illness for many years'
• Free Covid testing to be scrapped for everyone under 'Rampdown' plans
• No more self-isolation for those testing positive when laws expire in March

 

[brad465]

Good news IF this plan materialises, and should it be implemented, it sounds like we'd be the country leading the way in trying to properly move on. Expect it to be met with firm resistance of course.

 

[Scotrail314209]

There is a statement from Downing Street taking place now, wonder what it'll cover.

 

[Mag_seven]

Good news IF this plan materialises, and should it be implemented, it sounds like we'd be the country leading the way in trying to properly move on. Expect it to be met with firm resistance of course.

Yes the work from home brigade who want restrictions to go on forever won't be happy.

 

[BackOnTheTrain]

Press conference now is just about second jabs for 16-17 year olds and boosters for 40-49 year olds.

There is a statement from Downing Street taking place now, wonder what it'll cover.

 

[brad465]

There is a statement from Downing Street taking place now, wonder what it'll cover.

Most likely something about the booster rollout expansion, but given several newspapers are reporting this somewhere in their online sites, I wouldn't be surprised if a journalist asks about the plan if Johnson and co. don't discuss it in this conference initially.

The timing of the end of March has some logic to it, firstly it's two years on from the pandemic starting, and I expect discontent will increase even further if made to carry on beyond then. Second, the covid legislation expires by that point, unless renewed, but from memory I think the initial legislation aimed to get rid of it after two years. Thirdly, we'll be passed winter, so infections would likely drop by this point, and demand on the NHS from normal winter pressures will be lower anyway, even if covid somehow wasn't.

 

[duncanp]

Most likely something about the booster rollout expansion, but given several newspapers are reporting this somewhere in their online sites, I wouldn't be surprised if a journalist asks about the plan if Johnson and co. don't discuss it in this conference initially.

The timing of the end of March has some logic to it, firstly it's two years on from the pandemic starting, and I expect discontent will increase even further if made to carry on beyond then. Second, the covid legislation expires by that point, unless renewed, but from memory I think the initial legislation aimed to get rid of it after two years. Thirdly, we'll be passed winter, so infections would likely drop by this point, and demand on the NHS from normal winter pressures will be lower anyway, even if covid somehow wasn't.

And we will also have more data on the long term levels of immunity afforded by the COVID vaccinations. (ie. to what extent does immunity begin to "wane" after the second/third jab?)

This will inform government decisions on whether annual booster jabs will be needed, and for which sections of the population.

We will also see what actually happens over the autumn and winter, as opposed to the scary predictions by the likes of Independent SAGE.

 

[bramling]

Yes the work from home brigade who want restrictions to go on forever won't be happy.

Oh dear what a shame. It’s high time the government had the guts to tackle this head-on.

Let’s hope this all goes to plan.

The next issue to tackle is NHS access and backlogs.

 

[Ianno87]

Yes the work from home brigade who want restrictions to go on forever won't be happy.

These people largely only exist in a few peoples' imaginations who don't actually talk to people who actually work from home. Certainly not the case from my fellow work from home-ees (and myself).

 

[bramling]

These people largely only exist in a few peoples' imaginations

No, they absolutely exist. You’ve alluded to it yourself by saying how much work from home means to (some) people. Can’t have it both ways.

 

[Ianno87]

No, they absolutely exist. You’ve alluded to it yourself by saying how much work from home means to (some) people. Can’t have it both ways.

For the umpteenth time, that does not translate (in the vast, vast majority of cases) to wanting restrictions on everybody else to continue. Most people (home workers or otherwise) are vaccinated and just want to move on now (but continue the benefits of working from home,which does not require anybody else to be restricted).

 

[bramling]

For the umpteenth time, that does not translate (in the vast, vast majority of cases) to wanting restrictions on everybody else to continue. Most people (home workers or otherwise) are vaccinated and just want to move on now (but continue the benefits of working from home,which does not require anybody else to be restricted).

Unfortunately this is not the experience in my workplace (real, not imagined). What we’ve had is support functions at home for 18 months, with functions simply not being carried out to the same level as hitherto - so much for working at home being more productive. I’ve heard it first-hand that people have had to be dragged back, in most cases to hybrid working in the first instance, kicking and screaming. We still don’t have the full work being carried out, in some cases inexplicably.

Meanwhile, from conversations with a relative who works inside the NHS, it’s same there. Indeed she’s been quietly “told off” for doing too much, as certain people don’t want it to appear that those still working at home aren’t as productive.

There’s going to be some rude awakenings over the coming year, that’s for sure.

 

[Ianno87]

Unfortunately this is not the experience in my workplace (real, not imagined). What we’ve had is support functions at home for 18 months, with functions simply not being carried out to the same level as hitherto - so much for working at home being more productive. I’ve heard it first-hand that people have had to be dragged back, in most cases to hybrid working in the first instance, kicking and screaming. We still don’t have the full work being carried out, in some cases inexplicably.

Meanwhile, from conversations with a relative who works inside the NHS, it’s same there. Indeed she’s been quietly “told off” for doing too much, as certain people don’t want it to appear that those still working at home aren’t as productive.

There’s going to be some rude awakenings over the coming year, that’s for sure.

So it's not WFH per-se that's the issue. It's the management of those who are WFH that is the problem. Clearly in 'public' organisations this is more likely to be an issue without such a hard hit on the bottom line, compared to private businesses where profit and loss, and control of costs and generation of revenue is everything.

Plenty of businesses have simply never been as busy and productive as they have been for the last 20 months. Otherwise they'd be failing.

 

[duncanp]

So it's not WFH per-se that's the issue. It's the management of those who are WFH that is the problem. Clearly in 'public' organisations this is more likely to be an issue without such a hard hit on the bottom line, compared to private businesses where profit and loss, and control of costs and generation of revenue is everything.

Plenty of businesses have simply never been as busy and productive as they have been for the last 20 months. Otherwise they'd be failing.

The management of people Working from Home was a problem before COVID, and will continue to be so long after COVID has been forgotten.

There are too many people who take the ****, and WFH needs a clear set of ground rules, which should be actively managed and enforced.

 

[Ianno87]

There are too many people who take the ****, and WFH needs a clear set of ground rules, which should be actively managed and enforced.

Which, in a hard-nosed for-profit bottom-line-focused business, they very much are!

 

[brad465]

Something else that caught my eye, I wonder if calling this "rampdown" is a deliberate tactic to remind us of the struggles with "lockdowns"?

 

[bramling]

Which, in a hard-nosed for-profit bottom-line-focused business, they very much are!

Which is presumably why my area is back to road congestion around 1600-1800, and the car park at my local station is now getting much closer to being full, and social media is full of “what has happened to the XX:XX to London which I’m sure used to run before I stopped going to work last March?”.

More and more people are returning to the workplace now, and soon those clamouring to remain at home are going to be the outliers. And about time too.

Something else that caught my eye, I wonder if calling this "rampdown" is a deliberate tactic to remind us of the struggles with "lockdowns"?

I suspect the biggest issue is that we’re now at the point where a number of factors are coming together. The government is starting to lost popularity, and soon the tax increase is going to be very evident on payslips. Likewise more and more people are back to work, and having been dragged back there all of a sudden they’re more conscious of the actual costs associated with all this. There’s almost certainly going to be another nasty (for some) in the form of one or more interest rate increases as we will need to control the inevitable high inflation - so much for everything being more productive and efficient.

All this had to come to an end at some point. Personally I’d have preferred this to have all been in place for September just gone - a natural breakpoint - but at least we now have something. We just need BJ to hold his nerve, I suspect the above mentioned political factors will make this more likely than some of the false dawns we’ve seen over the last two years.

 

[WelshBluebird]

More and more people are returning to the workplace now, and soon those clamouring to remain at home are going to be the outliers. And about time too.

It really depends on the industry. In tech, what you say is so far from the reality it is actually quite amusing and any company refusing to allow at least some (and depending on the specifics, full) remote working is going to be losing out big time unless they are a big name (I am sure the likes of Google etc will be fine, but certainly any regular company will not be unless they allow employees the flexibility people now expect and are asking for). I'm a lead developer and whilst I am not looking for a new job (because my employer is actually being sensible and is listening to staff), if I interviewed anywhere now that expected staff in the office more than once a week I'd laugh at them and finish the interview there and then.

And I'd also suggest the view that anyone who wants to remain working from home is in support of continuing restrictions is also just as amusing (and just as incorrect).

 

[Ianno87]

It really depends on the industry. In tech, what you say is so far from the reality it is actually quite amusing and any company refusing to allow at least some (and depending on the specifics, full) remote working is going to be losing out big time unless they are a big name (I am sure the likes of Google etc will be fine, but certainly any regular company will not be unless they allow employees the flexibility people now expect and are asking for).
And I'd also suggest the view that anyone who wants to remain working from home is in support of continuing restrictions is also just as amusing (and just as incorrect).

And it's not binary either.

I *love* a couple of days a week back in the office each week for collaboration, the social aspects and the better IT setup. But doesn't need to be every single day, nor the same days each week, or even the same office. That's just for North Korea-style authoritarian regimes to enforce (and, frankly, companies that want to lose staff).

Like you say, it's not one-size-fits-all, and doesn't have to be.

All we can say with certainty is that the number of people generally (not just home workers) actively wanting draconian restrictions to continue (or be reimposed) is tiny.

(Side note: it is also amusing to see posters complaining about others wanting to dictate restrictions suggesting that those people should instead have to strictly follow their own arbitrary "rules". It's ironic to say the least)

 

[bramling]

It really depends on the industry. In tech, what you say is so far from the reality it is actually quite amusing and any company refusing to allow at least some (and depending on the specifics, full) remote working is going to be losing out big time unless they are a big name (I am sure the likes of Google etc will be fine, but certainly any regular company will not be unless they allow employees the flexibility people now expect and are asking for).
And I'd also suggest the view that anyone who wants to remain working from home is in support of continuing restrictions is also just as amusing (and just as incorrect).

No one has said “anyone” who wants to remain working at home, though some on here seem to choose to interpret it as that.

It is very clear that there are *some* people who wish to use Covid as a means of achieving this. Indeed it has gone as far as been stated on here how much some people want their work from home. If people want it and employers are happy to facilitate it then fine, but don’t big up Covid as a sham way of trying to justify it, and don’t expect the taxpayer to support it.

 

[Ianno87]

No one has said “anyone” who wants to remain working at home, though some on here seem to choose to interpret it as that.

You referred to the "work from home brigade", referring to anybody in such a situation.

 

[yorksrob]

This is good news.

Let's hope the PM holds his nerve on it.

 

[Cowley]

Ah working from home…
We’ve been around the houses (or even staying in the houses) on that subject before haven’t we?
If we could try and keep this to mainly discussing the actual government plans here that would probably lead to less arguments from here on.
Thanks

 

[seagull]

I'm guessing that the so-called "UK" plans for ramping down actually are just for England - can't see Comrade Drakeford relinquishing his petty powers over the inhabitants of Wales in a hurry, sadly.

 

[Watershed]

It's about time that this was discussed. There's a stark contrast between places such as England and Scandinavia (where life is broadly back to normal) and the rest of Europe or even the UK (where it's absolutely not). Even more so with most of the rest of Europe now heading back into their now annual winter lockdowns.

Sadly I fear this has just been leaked to curry favour with the public, so as to distract from the government's abject failure on other domestic matters.

Whilst I have no confidence that the government actually intends on carrying out this plan, this will be a big step in the right direction if it goes ahead.

 

[brad465]

It's about time that this was discussed. There's a stark contrast between places such as England and Scandinavia (where life is broadly back to normal) and the rest of Europe or even the UK (where it's absolutely not). Even more so with most of the rest of Europe now heading back into their now annual winter lockdowns.

Sadly I fear this has just been leaked to curry favour with the public, so as to distract from the government's abject failure on other domestic matters.

Whilst I have no confidence that the government actually intends on carrying out this plan, this will be a big step in the right direction if it goes ahead.

I think a large section of the Tory party will want these plans to happen, and given Johnson is not in a good place with his party right now, he'll go ahead with it if he wants to buy more time for himself in their eyes.

 

[Watershed]

I think a large section of the Tory party will want these plans to happen, and given Johnson is not in a good place with his party right now, he'll go ahead with it if he wants to buy more time for himself in their eyes.

Oh yes, I think that's quite possible. It's rather sad that returning to normality depends on the political machinations of the Tory party rather than such principles as, I don't know, common sense!

 

[bramling]

Oh yes, I think that's quite possible. It's rather sad that returning to normality depends on the political machinations of the Tory party rather than such principles as, I don't know, common sense!

Sad though it it, it’s useful. The screw has tightened on BJ a little in recent days, especially with some more unsettling poll data in very recent days. This gives the backbenchers a little more leverage, for the time being at least.

Let’s hope the days of BJ walking on water are behind us.

 

[asw22]

Interesting timing given recent stories about MPs doing this and that ....

I hope that this is what happens in reality as I am sure many want to see an end to the turmoil that this has caused at the expense of treatment of other diseases and financial / emotional impacts of lockdowns and restrictions.

The story so far:
Feb / March 2020: herd immunity
March 2020 12 weeks to bend the curve
May 2020: world beating test and trace
June 2020: face masks to stop the spread
June 2021: local tier restrictions
November 2020: circuit breaker to save Christmas
December 2020: 5 days, sorry 1 day, sorry 0 days of Christmas
January 2021: safe for schools to go back, oh wait no its not, followed by lockdown
February 2021: road map out of lockdown announced
Spring 2021: get double vaccinated to get out of covid
April 2021: schools no longer need face masks
June 2021: final stage of road map delayed
July 2021: if final stage of lockdown is released then we will have 100K cases per day by August
July 2021: final stage of lockdown released (for now)
Summer 2021: shortages due to "pingdemic"
September 2021: End of furlough, end of Universal credit uplift and national insurance increases to pay for NHS backlog and social care
Autumn 2021: get a booster to save Christmas

Many people will have had their 2nd vaccine by June 2021 so they will be offered boosters at the 6 month mark
However many people will not have had their second vaccine until September / October so not sure how these people will be able to save Christmas by a booster if its not due till March / April 2022 - unless they mean Christmas 2022.

 

[P Binnersley]

I'm guessing that the so-called "UK" plans for ramping down actually are just for England - can't see Comrade Drakeford relinquishing his petty powers over the inhabitants of Wales in a hurry, sadly.

Strictly speaking correct; but if England gets rid of test and trace the government does not have to provide equivalent funding to the devolved authorities (the Barnett formula). If they wanted to continue test and trace the devolved authorities would have to fund it from existing budgets. Also anybody who thought they might be told to isolate would relocate to England for 10 days.