Overnight coach services between Scotland and London.

[deltic]

There are already two overnight trains from London to Scotland. The seats are rarely full. Unless there's a massive number of overnight Birmingham to Scotland passengers there aren't enough people to make it pay.
The cheap overnight coaches from London to Scotland stopped due to lack of customers.

mods note - split from this thread

There are at least five overnight coaches from London to Glasgow and two between Birmingham and Glasgow - the rail options are not widely advertised and not particularly cheap - looking a few weeks hence the sleeper seating option is £80 compared to £81 for a daytime advance. Whether selling 500 rail seats at £25 each covers the marginal cost of the service I don't know but would certainly compete with the low cost airlines

 

[Starmill]

There are at least five overnight coaches from London to Glasgow and two between Birmingham and Glasgow - the rail options are not widely advertised and not particularly cheap - looking a few weeks hence the sleeper seating option is £80 compared to £81 for a daytime advance. Whether selling 500 rail seats at £25 each covers the marginal cost of the service I don't know but would certainly compete with the low cost airlines

They are more competitive during the daytime though. Hence why Lumo run in the daytime and not at night. If they did run cheaper services overnight (assuming they could plan it around weekly, possessions which would be near-impossible) it'd undermine their yield on the daytime services.

 

[Deafdoggie]

There are at least five overnight coaches from London to Glasgow and two between Birmingham and Glasgow - the rail options are not widely advertised and not particularly cheap - looking a few weeks hence the sleeper seating option is £80 compared to £81 for a daytime advance. Whether selling 500 rail seats at £25 each covers the marginal cost of the service I don't know but would certainly compete with the low cost airlines

I don't believe there are people in London wanting to go to Scotland but only if they can travel overnight.
The only people who would use such a service, are already travelling, but in the day. Therefore moving them to night travel isn't creating any new revenue.
Anyone who needs to travel from London to Scotland overnight would surely put it in a journey planner, and thus find the existing journeys. I'm not sure advertising them more would boost passenger numbers.

 

[deltic]

I don't believe there are people in London wanting to go to Scotland but only if they can travel overnight.
The only people who would use such a service, are already travelling, but in the day. Therefore moving them to night travel isn't creating any new revenue.
Anyone who needs to travel from London to Scotland overnight would surely put it in a journey planner, and thus find the existing journeys. I'm not sure advertising them more would boost passenger numbers.

There are plenty of people who want early morning arrivals and to save on hotel charges. As highlighted above there are 5 overnight coaches between London and Glasgow, and at least 4 from London to Edinburgh so there is definitely a market. Looking at London to Glasgow tonight and tomorrow night there are no seats available.

 

[The Planner]

There are plenty of people who want early morning arrivals and to save on hotel charges. As highlighted above there are 5 overnight coaches between London and Glasgow, and at least 4 from London to Edinburgh so there is definitely a market. Looking at London to Glasgow tonight and tomorrow night there are no seats available.

How many can the coaches hold? 50, 60? So 300 max which is half an eleven car Pendo.

 

[dk1]

There are plenty of people who want early morning arrivals and to save on hotel charges. As highlighted above there are 5 overnight coaches between London and Glasgow, and at least 4 from London to Edinburgh so there is definitely a market. Looking at London to Glasgow tonight and tomorrow night there are no seats available.

Perhaps coach drivers are happier working nights than us train drivers. I personally can’t stand and haven’t done them in over 13 years now.

Personally as a passenger unless I had a sleeping berth it would be a hotel for me.

 

[Deafdoggie]

How many can the coaches hold? 50, 60? So 300 max which is half an eleven car Pendo.

49 seats per coach is the NatEx standard. Fairly sure Flixbus is the same. They can only fill 4 coaches to Edinburgh with cheaper fares. I can't see the railways even breaking even on that basis.

There are plenty of people who want early morning arrivals and to save on hotel charges. As highlighted above there are 5 overnight coaches between London and Glasgow, and at least 4 from London to Edinburgh so there is definitely a market. Looking at London to Glasgow tonight and tomorrow night there are no seats available.

Can you link to the timetable that shows this number of coaches running? I can't find it.

 

[deltic]

49 seats per coach is the NatEx standard. Fairly sure Flixbus is the same. They can only fill 4 coaches to Edinburgh with cheaper fares. I can't see the railways even breaking even on that basis.


Can you link to the timetable that shows this number of coaches running? I can't find it.

Need to look at each operator's schedule - I had just looked at Nat Ex and Megabus previously but there is also Flixbus. This evening's departures from London Victoria Coach station to Glasgow are

Flixbus 21:00
Nat Ex 21.30
Nat Ex 22.30
Flixbus 22.30
Megabus 23.00
Megabus 23.30
Flixbus 23.59
Megabus 23.59

8 coaches in total to Glasgow and 6 to Edinburgh which leave between 21.30 and 23.59.

That is, 14 coaches leaving London each night for the central belt which is broadly the same as the number of day time departures. We don't say there is no day time market between London and Glasgow/Edinburgh because there are only a dozen daytime coach services.

 

[The Planner]

Need to look at each operator's schedule - I had just looked at Nat Ex and Megabus previously but there is also Flixbus. This evening's departures from London Victoria Coach station to Glasgow are

Flixbus 21:00
Nat Ex 21.30
Nat Ex 22.30
Flixbus 22.30
Megabus 23.00
Megabus 23.30
Flixbus 23.59
Megabus 23.59

8 coaches in total to Glasgow and 6 to Edinburgh which leave between 21.30 and 23.59.

That is, 14 coaches leaving London each night for the central belt which is broadly the same as the number of day time departures. We don't say there is no day time market between London and Glasgow/Edinburgh because there are only a dozen daytime coach services.

That is still only 1 train worth of people to Glasgow. How many coaches run post 0000?

 

[deltic]

That is still only 1 train worth of people to Glasgow. How many coaches run post 0000?

But less than a train load of people travel on coaches in the day time between the two cities - does that mean there is no demand for daytime rail services? I don't think there are any coach departures to Scotland after midnight from London Victoria.

 

[The Planner]

But less than a train load of people travel on coaches in the day time between the two cities - does that mean there is no demand for daytime rail services? I don't think there are any coach departures to Scotland after midnight from London Victoria.

But surely this is a cost issue for people not a train demand issue? They use the coach because its a lot cheaper.

 

[Deafdoggie]

But less than a train load of people travel on coaches in the day time between the two cities - does that mean there is no demand for daytime rail services? I don't think there are any coach departures to Scotland after midnight from London Victoria.

Okay. Different question, where are these nighttime train passengers coming from? Are they new to travel from London to Scotland? If not, then it's just abstracting from other journeys. If they are, then the only thing stopping them travelling at the moment is the lack of overnight trains? Even though there are already two overnight trains.

 

[30907]

But less than a train load of people travel on coaches in the day time between the two cities - does that mean there is no demand for daytime rail services? I don't think there are any coach departures to Scotland after midnight from London Victoria.

Apples and pears - you need to compare journey times. The fastest of the 3 overnight Flixbuses takes 9h10 (and is quicker than by day) - if your journey is that long you might well opt for overnight.
If you look at the nearest equivalent rail trip (Inverness) then there is indeed an overnight service. The same applies in Central Europe, though demand for overnight seated travel has declined.

 

[deltic]

But surely this is a cost issue for people not a train demand issue? They use the coach because its a lot cheaper.

It is - the question is what is the marginal cost of running an additional overnight service and what is the lowest fare you can offer - does 500 seats at £25 work from a financial point of view.

Okay. Different question, where are these nighttime train passengers coming from? Are they new to travel from London to Scotland? If not, then it's just abstracting from other journeys. If they are, then the only thing stopping them travelling at the moment is the lack of overnight trains? Even though there are already two overnight trains.

As Ryanair has shown if you price low enough you can create a market - the fact that a dozen coaches a night operate between London and Glasgow/Edinburgh at around £30 a seat shows there is a market. Looking over the next few days the cheapest seat on the overnight rail services seems to be £80 which is obviously not competitive with either many airlines or coaches.

 

[The Planner]

It is - the question is what is the marginal cost of running an additional overnight service and what is the lowest fare you can offer - does 500 seats at £25 work from a financial point of view.

We are talking of just the one service now, not continual overnight services, the marginal costs of several are no longer marginal.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The coaches from London to Scotland that stopped were the sleeper coaches. I used them and they were surprisingly good, but the higher price point didn't really work, because you're either wanting a very budget trip (in which case a seat in a road coach suits) or a more premium one (in which case a sleeper compartment or a flight).

The seats on the Cally and Riviera sit in a similar position - not attractive on a budget nor on a premium, hence the small amount of them.

 

[deltic]

We are talking of just the one service now, not continual overnight services, the marginal costs of several are no longer marginal.

No - the marginal cost of running a daily service.

 

[Deafdoggie]

No - the marginal cost of running a daily service.

It's not really marginal is it? Presumably you'll want a Northbound & a Southbound ? That's two trains that aren't getting their overnight maintenance so need to be "off" in the day instead. Then you'll need at least two drivers & at least two train managers. You're probably going to want to include a First Class offering so you'll need First Class hosts and a catering offering for the rest, so Catering staff.
This is a requirement of two trains, at least 8 staff and all the track access charges. I'd say you'd need to charge around £100 a seat for that. On the basis the train was full. If it wasn't, you'd need to charge more. And you still haven't said where these passengers are coming from

 

[deltic]

It's not really marginal is it? Presumably you'll want a Northbound & a Southbound ? That's two trains that aren't getting their overnight maintenance so need to be "off" in the day instead. Then you'll need at least two drivers & at least two train managers. You're probably going to want to include a First Class offering so you'll need First Class hosts and a catering offering for the rest, so Catering staff.
This is a requirement of two trains, at least 8 staff and all the track access charges. I'd say you'd need to charge around £100 a seat for that. On the basis the train was full. If it wasn't, you'd need to charge more. And you still haven't said where these passengers are coming from

It is very much marginal and how most operators would work in other sectors, in a fleet there will be stock that is available at night that is not undergoing maintenance, you would certainly not offer first class hosts or catering - that is not the market. If I understand the ORR numbers correctly, track access charges for a pendolino between London to Glasgow are around £1000 - driver and train manager cost possibly come in around £2000, no idea what the wear and tear cost per mile for the rolling stock would equate to per trip, say £2000 - so base cost is around £5k. - c500 seats - 50% utilisation gives a fare of around £20. Revenue above this would start to contribute to fixed costs. The risk is that you cannibalise the existing rail market but what we have seen on the ECML is new services have grown the market. It is not a zero sum game where all traffic is assumed to come from other operators.

The whole idea is a fantasy as route knowledge tends not to be there for an operator to provide such a service at a time of day when there will be need for regular diversions due to overnight engineering work.

I always find it interesting when someone suggests an idea on the forum that people, often for sensible reasons, set out why it couldn't work rather than looking at ways to make it work. It highlights a general lack of entrepreneurial thinking in the rail sector and a can't do rather than can do attitude. This is not a criticism of those who have set out valid reasons why the idea set out isn't work but a general observation.

 

[overthewater]

I remember when I used to use the services around 10 years ago, It was filled with all sorts of people, including Students, migrants, tourists, and I also saw a few people using it to get to funerals and returning on the next night bus back up.

 

[SynthD]

It highlights a general lack of entrepreneurial thinking in the rail sector and a can't do rather than can do attitude.

It highlights the entrepreneurial thinking of reading the market and seeing no demand. With no demand, create no supply. Shan’t do what won’t be used.

 

[Merle Haggard]

I wonder whether the decline in overnight trains is because daytime transit times have become much shorter. In 1969, the Thames - Clyde took over 9* hours to travel from London to Glasgow, which meant if you were travelling only during the day, a one day visit to Glasgow would involve 3 days and 2 nights' hotels, so travelling overnight would be a solution. Now, it's just about possible to visit Glasgow in a day from the South (I personally have done it from Northampton).

Coach travel, on the other hand, hasn't had the same speed increase; more motorways but the journey time decrease counterbalanced by the effect of speed limiters and congestion.

*To be fair, the Royal Scot zipped there in only 7.

 

[deltic]

It highlights the entrepreneurial thinking of reading the market and seeing no demand. With no demand, create no supply. Shan’t do what won’t be used.

Ryanair takes a very different approach - no market - then create one - if it doesn't work try somewhere else. Its what many of the most successful companies do.

 

[Deafdoggie]

It is very much marginal and how most operators would work in other sectors, in a fleet there will be stock that is available at night that is not undergoing maintenance, you would certainly not offer first class hosts or catering - that is not the market. If I understand the ORR numbers correctly, track access charges for a pendolino between London to Glasgow are around £1000 - driver and train manager cost possibly come in around £2000, no idea what the wear and tear cost per mile for the rolling stock would equate to per trip, say £2000 - so base cost is around £5k. - c500 seats - 50% utilisation gives a fare of around £20. Revenue above this would start to contribute to fixed costs. The risk is that you cannibalise the existing rail market but what we have seen on the ECML is new services have grown the market. It is not a zero sum game where all traffic is assumed to come from other operators.

The whole idea is a fantasy as route knowledge tends not to be there for an operator to provide such a service at a time of day when there will be need for regular diversions due to overnight engineering work.

I always find it interesting when someone suggests an idea on the forum that people, often for sensible reasons, set out why it couldn't work rather than looking at ways to make it work. It highlights a general lack of entrepreneurial thinking in the rail sector and a can't do rather than can do attitude. This is not a criticism of those who have set out valid reasons why the idea set out isn't work but a general observation.

You'd not to do it with just 1 driver and 1 TM so you'd need to at least double your staff costs.

 

[JonathanH]

The advantage of getting an overnight coach is threefold.

Firstly, the security of not having passengers moving about, boarding and leaving at intermediate stations,

Secondly, the time it takes. A train just gets to the destination too quickly. A coach gives more time to sleep and lights can be turned off.

Third, cost and flexibility.

It highlights a general lack of entrepreneurial thinking in the rail sector and a can't do rather than can do attitude.

It just isn't a market the railway needs to be in, beyond the current sleeper trains.

Coaches are the appropriate vehicle for intermediate distance overnight travel. The railway is the appropriate means of travelling at other times.

 

[deltic]

You'd not to do it with just 1 driver and 1 TM so you'd need to at least double your staff costs.

The costs are based on 2 drivers and 2 TMs

The advantage of getting an overnight coach is threefold.

Firstly, the security of not having passengers moving about, boarding and leaving at intermediate stations,

Secondly, the time it takes. A train just gets to the destination too quickly. A coach gives more time to sleep and lights can be turned off.

Third, cost and flexibility.


It just isn't a market the railway needs to be in, beyond the current sleeper trains.

Coaches are the appropriate vehicle for intermediate distance overnight travel. The railway is the appropriate means of travelling at other times.

The coaches are not non-stop - and some have intermediate stops where people get on and off - lights can be dimmed on trains. Not sure what the flexibility refers to. The current sleeper trains lose money hand over fist due to high staff numbers and low passenger numbers.

 

[JonathanH]

The coaches are not non-stop - and some have intermediate stops where people get on and off - lights can be dimmed on trains.

Yes, indeed there are stops on the coaches but the way the passenger flows work is a bit different from how train boarding works. Train lights do not get dimmed to anything like the level on a coach.

Megabus M11X and M20X don't have intermediate passenger boarding points between London and Glasgow / Edinburgh respectively.