Personally (to save training, and time) I'd have the turbo fleet used to get rid of pacers on the GW route, move some stuff round, send some sprinters to ATW, use the turbos round Bristol etc.
Good point, but would guage clearance be more or less time consuming/expensive than training? Anyway, if the 165s are staying with GW then I would agree that around Bristol is probably the best place for them, ie. the Severn Beach Line and Bristol to Taunton/Weston-Super-Mare services.
With TPE, I was wondering whether Hull Trains would buy some EMUs, lease some mark3s with a 90, 86 or 87, or continue running 180s under the wires. If they get rid of their 180s then I was wondering if they could take over a few of TPE's remaining non-electrified routes. Another thing I'm wondering, could you take 24 of the 51 185s, reclasify them into a different subclass, take a coach out of each and add the spare coaches to 24 other units. So far, this is what somebody else suggested
but could you knock a hole in one cab of each of these 25 units that were reduced to 2-car and fit a gangway instead, creating 12 more 4-car units. That would result in 36 4-car and 2 3-car 185s in total I think.
the Valley Lines (all valley line stock sent to Northern, don't know how many that is)
I'm sure all ATW's Pacers could go if the Valleys, plus Cardiff-Swansea/Cheltenham, were all wired. The way I worked out the number of 150s Valleys electrification was to work out how many 150s might be needed elsewhere in Wales. I might be wrong but I made it:
Wrexham - Bidston - 3 units
Llandudno - Blaenau Ffestiniog - 1 unit, potentially up to 3 units with service improvments
New Llandudno - Holyhead stopper - 2 or 3 units
Pembroke Dock - Swansea - 3 units
Chester - Crewe - Shrewsbury - 2 units
Total: 14 units, meaning 30 Pacers and 15 to 17 150s could be released by ValleyLines wiring. However, if Swansea - Cardiff and Cardiff - Cheltenham remain diesel you'd need another 150 or two for Swanline, and some more for Cardiff - Cheltenham. 8 of the released 150s would take care of FGW's 8 143s. I suggest the remaining 7 150s and 4 155s (formed from ATW's 8 153s) be exchanged for 11 156s. I suppose Wales might not need all 11 of them (though HOWL, an hourly service to Milford Haven and a 2-hourly service to Fishguard (if we can't get 158s) could use them) so perhaps 2 of them could go to allow another four 153s to become two 155s.
Anyway, if the valley lines includes enough to get rid of 50 units (I think it proberbly might... don't know the valley lines)
About 40 Pacers replaced is the limit (30 directly, 8 from FGW and maybe a couple from Northern if you take a few more 150s off Wales) for Valleys electrification I reckon.
Then it's just the matter of the IEP Bi Mode to scrap with MML Electrification and we're all happy... and don't need any new diesel trains for a very long time, provided we keep up electrification with stock expiry rates...
Sounds good. Getting enough wires up by the end of Dec 2019 to scrap all Pacers and half the 153s (due to them needing to become 155s again) is not going to be easy though, compared to that getting rid of bi-mode IEP looks very, very easy.
You don't even need MML wiring to scrap bi-mode IEP, just need Crewe - Chester, Swansea - Cardiff, Swindon - Cheltenham, a shed load of extra Pendolinios, IEP electrics that can multi with a 67 to avoid run-round and a few TDM push-pull capable class 57s. Once we've got rid of Pacers and IEP bi-mode, then MML is next on the list.