The contract award to Siemans today brings to mind a time scale for the preliminary discussions on actual numbers of stock units required and budgetry requirements, then the actual tendering documentation, then the bidding process, then the result of the successful bidder. Only then will construction be commenced.
What exactly is Siemens' timescale? I'm thinking more of the Thameslink contract here, when will the cascaded units from there become available? Will they give the 377s to Southern first, then cascade all the older units in 2016 or will the cascaded units become available gradually in the years before that? I also wonder what the timescale for GWML electrification is. Will it go to Oxford or Bristol first? and how many miles of wire a year will go up with their planned factory train? I assume the north-west electrification will proceed more slowly due to lack of a factory train, or is one going up there too?
Now let's see:
1) Lots of unhappy passengers being carried around in clapped out and crammed Pacers, longing for both new trains and more trains
2) Train building factory at Derby laying off workers because it does not have enough work.
Could there be a connection ?
.... err ... in Britain....... No.
I can see plenty of very useful work that could be given to Derby now the Germans have the Thameslink and Crossrail contracts.
- 180 (possiblly a few more) Electrostar carriges for the ValleyLines including the Swansea/Maesteg - Cheltenham Spa/Bristol TM/Ebbw Vale stopping services (breaking the Cardiff - Bristol section off the Cardiff - Taunton)
- Pantograph cars for all Voyagers, which if some more Pendos are ordered to replace the 221s with ICWC would mean all IEPs could be plain electric
- Pantograph cars for the 222s, allowing partial wiring of MML (Nottingham and Corby wired, getting new electric stock leaving 222s on the other workings)
- A fleet of new loco-hauled coaches to replace surviving mark 2s and the East Anglia mark3s by 2020 to save on some power-door fittment
- A continued, gradual build of these new coaches to replace IC125s with push-pull electric LHCS (by 2035), then to replace the mark3 sleepers (by about 2035-2040) and finally the mark4s by about 2045-2050
- If you really can't wire enough routes to replace Pacers by 2020 then an order of 172s for Northern to plug the gap
You probablly wouldn't need to do all of that to save the factory either, but you would need the lot to provide the benifits to passengers.
Failing that, maybe bombardier could offer to refurbish the 150's going north?
Surely they could think of something to do, even if it is entering preliminary negotiations. If They could keep the staff busy refurbishing old units (not only 150's there is a whole other thread about wha tneeds refurbishing) and have a big order on the horizon, then they could mitigate any job losses
And by refurbishment, I am talking major work, not new seat covers and carpets.
An expansive life-extension program will probablly be needed on all Sprinters, and possibly the 166s/165s too. Getting rid of Pacers will be hard enough, I don't think we can afford to loose any other DMUs for many, many years after that so life-extension work will be necessary.
So, with around fifty 158s freed up from ScotRail, plus the units freed up from Lancashire/ Thames Valley electrifications and you have almost a hundred units, which would wipe out the majority of Pacers were there not stock shortages and increasing passenger numbers on so many lines.
Not only that, there are a number of lines which deserve a much better service, and places where Beeching went too far, that would happily absorb any spare Sprinters going around. <silly/sarcastic comment>
Ideally, we'd invent a time machine and get BR to make a load more of them and put them in stasis until they were needed.</silly/sarcastic comment>
PS: I still think that an additional 350 miles of electrification should allow all Pacers to be withdrawn, but realistically even if the political will/money was there, the logistics of sorting this out at the same time as electrifying lines in Lancashire/ Thames Valley would stretch experienced staff/ resources too far
Brings me back to my earlier question, how many miles per year can the two electrification teams, one with a factory train, each feesibly manage? The figures I've seen (no idea on truefullness of source) on the web for northwest electrification suggests the 1st 15.6 miles will be complete by the end of 2013 (when as yet un-ordered new stock is supposed to take over Manchester - Scotland). That will be followed by:
- 25.9 more miles complete by end of 2014
- Another 17.2 miles complete by the end of 2015
- And finally the 24.4 miles from Manchester to Preston complete by end of 2016
Assuming work on one section is not started before the previous one has finished (big assumption I know, can anyone clear this up?) then this team can manage a maximum of about 26 miles a year. Taking 3 years, and a figure of 25 miles per year to be on the safe side, that gives 75 more miles of wire. I think that gives you Cardiff Central to Treherbert, Cardiff Bay to Rhymney and the Maesteg and Ebbw Vale branches (but not the mainlines they contect to, or the Vale Of Glamorgan line). Hopefully the GWML team with it's factory train will have enough time to wire Swansea - Cardiff (via Vale Of Glamorgan and direct) and Severn Tunnel Junction - Cheltenham - Swindon to make it work. The first team would then finish off the Valleys by doing Aberdare (might be able to extend to Glyn-Neath while they are at it, assuming the track is done by a track team before hand, while the wires are going up everywhere else) and Merthyr in 2020 itself to cascade the remaining 150s to the rest of Wales. Sadly it looks like Northerns Pacers can only be got rid of completly by buying new DMUs, unless another electrification team materilises. The fleet needed can be reduced in size though, use a very small number of 150s from the Valleys to knock out FGW's very small fleet of Pacers and make the Newcastle area a mix of 165s and 156s by cascading 5 of FGW's 2-car 165s to Northern and all the 3-car FGW 165s to Chiltern, with Chiltern then sending some of their 2-car units (the same number as they received 3-car sets) off to Northern. That might still leave 2 142s for the Newcastle - Hexham services though, as I'm trying to avoid Northern needing more 156s there than they currently have (13 I think) and 165s apparently can't go west of either Newcastle or possibly MetroCentre on that line.