Something from the Network North document, it states that:
benefits fall disproportionately on London and the South East
Well, if you look at the graphic, the benefits to the Southeast is 4% compared with 16% for the west midlands and 29% for the North West.
Yes London is much larger (at 41%), however it also has a larger population, when you adjust for population compared to the North West's 29 it comes out at 33, closing the gap considerably (they aren't percentages any more as we're not comparing to 100).
18th August to 3rd September had 30 day rolling average of between 79% and 82% (to get to less than 78% you have to search back to June, but in doing so you also pass write a few days at 84% or 85% for the average rolling 30 day value) the time period compared in the report is Jan to March were the 30 day rolling average rarely reached 80% (it never exceeds it, there are 11 days from a three month window when it is 79% or 80%) and is often as low as 75%. As such it's looking at a set of numbers which are noticeable below the current data to justify the fact that we are below peak rail from 2019.
As I've said before HS2 predictions were far exceeded by 2019. For example by 2024 (15 years from announcement) the predictions were for 135 passengers for every 100 in 2009. In 2019 it was 170.
80% of 170 is 136. Therefore for most of the last few months we've been marginally ahead of the predicted numbers for next year!
As such whist rail passenger use is down, we're still not that far off (and probably slightly ahead rather than behind) the predictions. That not bad going given we're currently running fewer trains and there's ongoing strikes.
Yet none of the above fits the narrative which is required to cut HS2.