Plans to reopen Totton - Fawley/Hythe (again!)

[zwk500]

Leaving aside the guff about HS2, most concerning was:

"It would appear that the business case isn’t as strong as might be hoped."

I had the general impression after 2022 that things were almost certain to go ahead... has in fact nothing happened since then, is it completely stalled?

Things were never certain to go ahead. Initial feasibility work that demonstrated it was reasonable from a technical standpoint to make the changes needed to run trains, and to find paths in the timetable for a viable service. The next stage is more detailed costing and design, at which point another decision would/will be made. Given the jump in costs (both construction inflation and general cost of living) and post-covid uncertainty about travel patterns, it's not surprising the business case isn't as strong as was initially thought - although note this doesn't mean the business case is doomed.

It's also worth pointing out that when things were moving quickly, there was significant political weight behind such schemes. Since then, politicians have played musical chairs (twice) and the priorities have changed substantially.

On the recent Green Signals podcast, Richard Bowker made the point that a lot of these reverse Beeching "let's open X Y Z" lines because we should" schemes are made by well meaning people, but with not much footing in reality. He was referring specifically to the Waverley line south of Tweedbank (which I agree with him about).

I wonder if lots of these other proposed schemes also fall in to that camp?

Many do, but Hythe was one of the more sensible proposals - it needed relatively light work to the track, had a clear service to run (and paths, albeit tight, to run in), and has a solid economic rationale - lots of development in a rapidly expanding commuter town on the Solent/Southampton Water that could be tempted out of their cars if a good service could be provided given local congestion.

 

[snowball]

On the recent Green Signals podcast, Richard Bowker made the point that a lot of these reverse Beeching "let's open X Y Z" lines because we should" schemes are made by well meaning people, but with not much footing in reality. He was referring specifically to the Waverley line south of Tweedbank (which I agree with him about).

I wonder if lots of these other proposed schemes also fall in to that camp?

A great deal of the discussion in relevant threads on this site is about just that question. I assume you have not read many threads about the possibility of reopening lines, or you would know already.

 

[kwrail]

I don't expect that much will happen until we have a change of government. The economic case for this was always strong, especially with the planned Solent port and sale of part of Marchwood military port. My guess is that it will happen, just not as soon as we would like. Current government has stopped making decisions and many ministers are planning for futures outside politics.

 

[Dougal2345]

In the local press again:

Fears plan to reopen Totton to Hythe railway line has been 'shelved'

A leading supporter of proposals to re-open a Hampshire rail route says he fears the scheme has been shelved by the government.

County councillor David Harrison has spent years promoting the case for passenger services on the Totton to Hythe line to be restored after more than half a century.

Last year Prime Minister Rishi Sunak scrapped plans to extend the HS2 high-speed rail link northwards from Birmingham.

Mr Sunak pledged that the £36bn saved by the decision would be spent on other transport projects across the country, including new stations and reopened railway lines.

His remarks raised hopes that proposals to reopen the Totton-Hythe line would be given the green light.

But no announcement has been made, and the route was not mentioned in Jeremy Hunt's Spring Budget speech on March 6.

Posting on social media, Cllr Harrison said: "It is beginning to look a bit like the government has shelved the plan for restoring the Waterside railway passenger service.

"I was disappointed there was no mention of this in the Budget.

"The leader of Hampshire County Council, Rob Humby, agreed to chase Network Rail for an update when I asked about it at the last county council meeting.

"The government has invested £7m in the project, looking at the business case and practical issues such as platform upgrades and impacts on crossings.

"The consultation exercise by Network Rail showed overwhelming public support for the project. Delays caused by constant roadworks have since persuaded doubters about the merits of a rail alternative."

The Daily Echo contacted Network Rail, but was referred to the Department for Transport.

A DfT spokesperson said: "The Department is considering next steps on the Waterside scheme and will provide further details in due course."

If the scheme goes ahead Marchwood station will reopen and a new transport hub will be built in Hythe.

The line, which originally extended as far south as Fawley, closed in 1966 and became a freight-only route serving industrial sites.

Network Rail's website says: "Reintroducing passenger services would strengthen and improve transport links to communities, support their growth, and provide a more sustainable mode of transport.

"In recent years Marchwood and Hythe have grown through residential and commercial developments.

"This has led to increasing congestion on local roads, particularly the A326, which links Fawley, Hythe, and Marchwood with the A35 road into Southampton. Regular passenger services could help alleviate this congestion."

In 2020 the then rail minister Chris Heaton-Harris said there was a "very strong case" for reopening the line.

 

[reddragon]

It was a tax cutting budget as the election is slated for May 2nd, so not one thinking of the future! Ely has been postponed along with pretty much anything undeliverable now!

 

[Verulamius]

Surely funding should be available under the Network North scheme?

 

[cle]

Surely funding should be available under the Network North scheme?

Except that it is a complete and utter lie, so there is that.

 

[reddragon]

The omens for spending are very poor. Whilst the headlines focused on cuts in taxes behind the scenes . .

Fears bottleneck upgrade to Cambridgeshire's railways won’t go ahead due to budget cuts | New Civil Engineer

The group has written to government ministers and local MPs raising concerns that significant cuts to transport budgets announced in chancellor of the

www.newcivilengineer.com

Fears bottleneck upgrade to Cambridgeshire’s railways won’t go ahead due to budget cuts​

Although chancellor Jeremy Hunt committed to a 1% rise in real terms for public spending for the next 12 months, Suffolk Chamber of Commerce has said official budget figures appear to show that the Department for Transport’s (DfT’s) resource spending in 2024/25 will fall from £8.2bn this year to only £5.7bn.

Anything unlikely to be on the ground within a few weeks is likely to be binned for months / years.

Money released from HS2 is fiction.

 

[yorksrob]

The omens for spending are very poor. Whilst the headlines focused on cuts in taxes behind the scenes . .

Fears bottleneck upgrade to Cambridgeshire's railways won’t go ahead due to budget cuts | New Civil Engineer

The group has written to government ministers and local MPs raising concerns that significant cuts to transport budgets announced in chancellor of the

www.newcivilengineer.com

Anything unlikely to be on the ground within a few weeks is likely to be binned for months / years.

Money released from HS2 is fiction.

So all that grand announcement was a tissue of lies !

 

[Sun Chariot]

Network Rail's track inspection unit visited Fawley's branch, reversing at Marchwood, this morning - and this view felt tantalisingly like resumption of the passenger service.

 

[Elybob]

Does anyone know what the service would be? I'm assuming it would be Fawley-Southampton Central

 

[swt_passenger]

Does anyone know what the service would be? I'm assuming it would be Fawley-Southampton Central

Yes. There are a number of explanations within this thread that attempt to explain why there’s no suitable service to connect with. The original Fawley site is out of scope as it’s within the refinery complex, and I understand a new Hythe station would be on a different site about 500 yards nearer to Southampton than the closed station.

 

[zwk500]

Does anyone know what the service would be? I'm assuming it would be Fawley-Southampton Central

Half-hourly Southampton Central to Hythe and return, I think. Fawley was a later phase and dependent on some big housing development, IIRC. When I last saw the plan it had an initial service of 1tph Southampton-Marchwood while various ramp-up things happened but the exact implementation would (hopefully will) depend on how the various ducks align.

 

[Dougal2345]

As we're now in the 'speculative discussion' area, I was mulling whether there might be any advantage to moving Totton station westward a little to the other side of the level crossing, where the yard is at the moment?

It could offer a few advantages over the present cramped station:

• It would be slightly more central in Totton (the current station is on the eastern edge, with its entrance at the eastern end)
• It could have a third platform for trains from the waterside line - so not all trains from Hythe would need to proceed on to Southampton Central, reducing congestion there.
  • (presumably a fair proportion of passengers to/from Hythe would be changing at Totton anyway, in order to head west).
• This in turn would reduce pressure on the level crossing that would be at its eastern end.
• Plenty of space to spread out, maybe even providing a car park.

 

[swt_passenger]

As we're now in the 'speculative discussion' area, I was mulling whether there might be any advantage to moving Totton station westward a little to the other side of the level crossing, where the yard is at the moment?

It could offer a few advantages over the present cramped station:

• It would be slightly more central in Totton (the current station is on the eastern edge, with its entrance at the eastern end)
• It could have a third platform for trains from the waterside line - so not all trains from Hythe would need to proceed on to Southampton Central, reducing congestion there.
  • (presumably a fair proportion of passengers to/from Hythe would be changing at Totton anyway, in order to head west).
• This in turn would reduce pressure on the level crossing that would be at its eastern end.
• Plenty of space to spread out, maybe even providing a car park.

How to make a fairly straightforward project unaffordable.

 

[zwk500]

It could have a third platform for trains from the waterside line - so not all trains from Hythe would need to proceed on to Southampton Central, reducing congestion there.

A shuttle for the branch destroys the case for reopening as the change introduces extension and risk to the journey time so people will continue to drive into Southampton

(presumably a fair proportion of passengers to/from Hythe would be changing at Totton anyway, in order to head west).

Very few passengers will be heading west. I would expect Southampton and London to be orders of magnitude higher than everywhere else, and Portsmouth to still be higher than Bournemouth or Weymouth. Passengers for Salisbury, Bristol or Devon & Cornwall will go to Southampton to change for the GWR services.

This in turn would reduce pressure on the level crossing that would be at its eastern end.

AIUI Totton level crossing can cope with the extra branch trains, its the level crossings on the branch itself that are awkward.

Plenty of space to spread out, maybe even providing a car park.

I'm not sure how much space will be left once the junction has been rebuilt to allow the station to be situated suitably far from the level crossing.

 

[chris2]

Does anyone know what the service would be? I'm assuming it would be Fawley-Southampton Central

It’s Hythe - Marchwood - Totton - Soton Central. Running into the bay platform 5.

Image from here.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It’s Hythe - Marchwood - Totton - Soton Central. Running into the bay platform 5.

Image from here.

Not stopping at Redbridge and Millbrook? That seems a missed opportunity to provide a better service to those stations as well as (depending on timing) better connections towards Salisbury.

 

[zwk500]

Running into the bay platform 5.

Mostly but not exclusively.

Not stopping at Redbridge and Millbrook? That seems a missed opportunity to provide a better service to those stations as well as (depending on timing) better connections towards Salisbury.

IIRC trying to provide a balanced service at Redbridge and Millbrook broke the timings and it was felt better to get the branch trains running at all. I also have a sneaking suspicion that the connections to Salisbury were the same at Southampton anyway. Given how hard it's been to get the proposal moving at all calling it a 'missed opportunity' seems somewhat harsh when it's very much on the 'nice to have' pile, and once the service is established and things like third rail extensions or battery units are being thought about stopping patterns can always be juggled later.
Remember that for all stations in this area, Southampton Central and London are the prize.

 

[507020]

I believe the Waterside line has emerged as the 3rd reopening in England, after Okehampton and Ashington, but what actually are the latest updates on this project?

 

[zwk500]

I believe the Waterside line has emerged as the 3rd reopening in England, after Okehampton and Ashington, but what actually are the latest updates on this project?

It went to public consultation in 2022 (report published November of that year) and has since gone very quiet. NR link: https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/our-routes/wessex/the-waterside-line/ (also linked above). There are 2 likely reasons it's gone quite: 1. Political backing has been completely pulled and it's effectively back on the shelf, or 2. The business case is being drawn up and taking a while to get into the detail of costs, logistics, and benefits. I hope it's number 2 because then at least the plan is still moving forward.

It's only the 3rd reopening in England if you are only counting the 'Restoring Your Railways' scheme, because East-West Rail (Bicester to Bletchley) will be the next line to reopen in England after Okehampton and Northumberland line. And of the RYR schemes, Portishead is much further advanced than the Waterside Line.

 

[Meerkat]

I can't help wondering if this scheme falls into 'the demand is there for a rail service but we can't provide what the demand is for'.
The demand looks pretty spread out at both ends - the housing is fairly low density and there is no park and ride, and Southampton Central isnt central. Add in only a half hourly service and beating driving in is getting dubious.

 

[swt_passenger]

I can't help wondering if this scheme falls into 'the demand is there for a rail service but we can't provide what the demand is for'.
The demand looks pretty spread out at both ends - the housing is fairly low density and there is no park and ride, and Southampton Central isnt central. Add in only a half hourly service and beating driving in is getting dubious.

A half hourly service would be twice as good as most of the minor stations in the Southampton area.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I can't help wondering if this scheme falls into 'the demand is there for a rail service but we can't provide what the demand is for'.
The demand looks pretty spread out at both ends - the housing is fairly low density and there is no park and ride, and Southampton Central isnt central. Add in only a half hourly service and beating driving in is getting dubious.

While that may be true, remember, the new line doesn't have to tempt everyone or even a majority of people, who commute by car from Hythe etc, to Southampton to swap to the train. Railways outside London run successfully despite only a small proportion of journeys being made by train. I'd bet that if even - say, just 5% of commuters along the line swapped from car to train, that would lead to very nicely loaded trains, as well as some reduction in congestion.

In practice, the train will probably mode-shift a fair few people from buses too. Which is not so good for the buses, but good for the public transport users who will end up with much faster journeys.

A half hourly service would be twice as good as most of the minor stations in the Southampton area.

Indeed. And incidentally, provided the times of the trains are balanced, the line should also make Totton to Southampton a much more attractive commute on the train, by increasing frequencies at that station.