Political matters surrounding the Integrated Rail Plan for the North and Midlands

[BrianW]

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...-rail-plan-for-the-north-and-midlands.224967/

For me it's the likelihood if not certainty that much of this hotch-potch plan will never see the light of day.

Some at least of it has to be seen to be 'happening'by the next General Election- 40 MP's seats worth from the following Conservative marginals, to keep a Conservative majority?:

NW- Accrington, Bury, Bolton, Burnley, Blackpool, Barrow, Copeland, Leigh, Pendle, Warrington, Workington
NE- Blyth Valley, Bishop Auckland, Durham, Redcar, Sedgefield, Stockton
Yorkshire- Calder Valley, Colne Valley, Don Valley, Rother Valley, Wakefield
Midlands: Bolsover, Broxtowe, Corby, Derby, Gedling, High Peak, Lincoln, Loughborough, Rushcliffe, Stoke-on-Trent

There's a lot at stake in the IRP area.

 

[A0wen]

Some at least of it has to be seen to be 'happening'by the next General Election- 40 MP's seats worth from the following, to keep a Conservative majority?:

NW- Accrington, Bury, Bolton, Burnley, Blackpool, Barrow, Copeland, Leigh, Pendle, Warrington, Workington
NE- Blyth Valley, Bishop Auckland, Durham, Redcar, Sedgefield, Stockton
Yorkshire- Calder Valley, Colne Valley, Don Valley, Rother Valley, Wakefield
Midlands: Bolsover, Broxtowe, Corby, Derby, Gedling, High Peak, Lincoln, Loughborough, Rushcliffe, Stoke-on-Trent

There's a lot at stake in the IRP area.

But of those a number have been Conservative seats for longer than 2019.

And some of them don't exist as constituencies as you've got them - Accrington doesn't exist, that's Hyndburn, Bury has 2 constituencies one of which the Conservatives have held in 2010,15 and 19, Bolton has 3 etc.

You've also included seats like Rushcliffe - which was Ken Clarke's and has been Conservative for aeons.

I'm not sure why you've included Corby because HS2 really isn't an issue for north Northants. The area where HS2 is an issue is West Northants because it's being build through the area with no benefits to the area.

 

[ChrisC]

Some at least of it has to be seen to be 'happening'by the next General Election- 40 MP's seats worth from the following Conservative marginals, to keep a Conservative majority?:

NW- Accrington, Bury, Bolton, Burnley, Blackpool, Barrow, Copeland, Leigh, Pendle, Warrington, Workington
NE- Blyth Valley, Bishop Auckland, Durham, Redcar, Sedgefield, Stockton
Yorkshire- Calder Valley, Colne Valley, Don Valley, Rother Valley, Wakefield
Midlands: Bolsover, Broxtowe, Corby, Derby, Gedling, High Peak, Lincoln, Loughborough, Rushcliffe, Stoke-on-Trent

There's a lot at stake in the IRP area.

I also wondered why the relatively safe Conservative seat of Rushcliffe, Kenneth Clarke’s former constituency is in the list. Surely Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Sherwood, Mansfield, Erewash, Amber Valley and North East Derbyshire are the real marginals which the Conservatives could lose.

 

[jfollows]

I also wondered why the relatively safe Conservative seat of Rushcliffe, Kenneth Clarke’s former constituency is in the list. Surely Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Sherwood, Mansfield, Erewash, Amber Valley and North East Derbyshire are the real marginals which the Conservatives could lose.

And Warrington South, which changes hands often. Warrington North is a strong Labour seat.

 

[Glenn1969]

I also wondered why the relatively safe Conservative seat of Rushcliffe, Kenneth Clarke’s former constituency is in the list. Surely Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Sherwood, Mansfield, Erewash, Amber Valley and North East Derbyshire are the real marginals which the Conservatives could lose.

There's a lot at stake in the IRP area but most of them were won with borrowed votes because people were voting for Brexit which Boris delivered. Think what happens in 2024 isn't clear yet. And is HS2 a vote winner or do the wider public have different priorities like the NHS?

 

[ChrisC]

There's a lot at stake in the IRP area but most of them were won with borrowed votes because people were voting for Brexit which Boris delivered. Think what happens in 2024 isn't clear yet. And is HS2 a vote winner or do the wider public have different priorities like the NHS?

Totally agree. I was just pointing out that these were the real marginals in the East Midlands and certainly not Rushcliffe. I don’t think that HS2 will be much in people’s minds in these areas in 2024. Many people thought it was a waste of money, destroying nice countryside and of no relevance when they had to drive many miles to Toton to travel on it.

 

[QSK19]

And is HS2 a vote winner or do the wider public have different priorities like the NHS?

To be brutally honest, I don’t think it is. We railway-loving folk do regard it as such; but Joe Public would put other things like the NHS before rail transportation. I don’t think they care too much about specific detail like we do - as long as they have a comfortable train to get them to their destination in good time, that’s what would be key for them. That isn’t to say, though, that they won’t care about rail improvements; so, I think it would be wise for the Tories to at least get the bill through Parliament, especially with their huge majority.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

I also wondered why the relatively safe Conservative seat of Rushcliffe, Kenneth Clarke’s former constituency is in the list. Surely Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Sherwood, Mansfield, Erewash, Amber Valley and North East Derbyshire are the real marginals which the Conservatives could lose.

Rushcliffe has become more marginal in recent elections (its current majority is 7,600) although that may be due to Brexit and it being an area that voted to remain. Other seats like Bassetlaw and Mansfield have had massive swings to the Tories are now safe Tory with majorities of 14,000 and 16,000 respectively.

 

[BrianW]

And Warrington South, which changes hands often. Warrington North is a strong Labour seat.

I also wondered why the relatively safe Conservative seat of Rushcliffe, Kenneth Clarke’s former constituency is in the list. Surely Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Sherwood, Mansfield, Erewash, Amber Valley and North East Derbyshire are the real marginals which the Conservatives could lose.

I worked from this list of 'battleground seats' for 2024: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
It's imperfect of course, and I was seeking to 'generalise' a bit from seats to towns, eg two Bury seats, three in or including part of Stoke-on-Trent etc
You can click through to last election voting, thus eg Ken Clarke's former seat is shown to require (only) 6.2% swing
I agree with the case regarding East Mids as a whole.
I imagine the 'party machines' with and without the Cummingses and Mandelsons will be 'on the case'.
Uxbridge of course also marginal and what with HS2 though South Ruislip and Runway 3 ... and next door to John McDonnell's Hayes & Harlington ... perhaps the current MP/ PM will be eying up South Holland, or Skegness (so bracing!) or on the stump in Boston, not far from the spiritual home of Thatcherism in Grantham ... or Essex- an indicator coming up in the City of Southend.

General Election 2019: Marginality

Which constituencies produced the narrowest or widest victory margins in the 2019 election?

commonslibrary.parliament.uk

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I actually think the public and parties would be more on side with a rolling electrification program and decarbonisation than IRP. Each bit of line(s) can be done in an election cycle too. It may even keep Greta happy also.

 

[37424]

Never really been convinced that HS2 was a vote winner plenty think its a waste of money, don't appreciate the capacity gain its designed to bring, or that the transformative journey time improvements could bring major benefits in terms of investment and jobs, some Environmentalists don't like it, and electrification and upgrade of existing routes will generally play better. The betrayal of the North mantra might get some limited traction in Yorkshire and the North East I suppose.

By the time we get to the next election I doubt Transport will be a major issue, there will be plenty of other stuff to take centre stage, and at this stage we don't even know who will be fighting the next election, quite possible both Johnson and Starmer could be replaced by then, will the left and centre start tearing the Labour Party apart, will we get some form of UKIP/Reform party gaining traction again.