Poor quality passenger rail service increases demand for private car purchases

[The Ham]

Just to emphasise the information given by @Fylsie in the post quoted

the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has just published the statistics for new car sales in 2022, see its website at https://media.smmt.co.uk/december-2022-new-car-registrations/ . This shows that 1,614,063 new cars were registered in 2022, a fall of 2% compared to the year before.

So more people may have been considering (according to the OP's quote) buying cars, but in fact didn't.

However monthly car sales did increase over the last eight months of 2022 compared to the first part of the year but not enough to cancel out the drop in the first four months. 2021 sales were affected by the pandemic and supply chain shortages and show a significant drop compared to the 2,311,140 new car registrations in 2019. Interestingly these 2019 new car sales didn't seem to have an effect on railway passenger numbers which were still growing at that time.

Maybe cars and trains are not competing for the same market...?

Interestingly if we look back at 2007 (15 years ago, so the average age of cars) there were 2,404,007 car sales, that means that during 2022 that there was about 790,000 fewer vehicles compared with those which we would have expected to have been replaced:

Which would be fine if it was just one year, however last year at 1,631,063 which was also down on the 2006 numbers 2,344,894, which was a further 713,831 fewer.

With 2020 also down at 1,631,064 with 2005 being 2,439,717, so 808,653.

However 2019, whilst at 2,311,140, was still down on 2004 which was 2,567,269 so down 256,129.

Even if we recovered to pre pandemic levels we'd need an extra 1 year's worth of sales in addition to the normal rates to bring average car ages back to where they were pre pandemic.

However it's unlikely that sales will revive quickly. As it's not just something which is limited to this country.

This could cause issues.

The problem is that if we are also reducing rail and bus capacity then it could well be that it starts to get harder and more expensive to get about, regardless of your preferred mode of transport.

To put this in perspective, if we assume we add 10% to the 2022 numbers to get to the 2023 numbers (and so on), it would take 5 years to get back to sales of 2.6 million new cars and we'd have baked in a further 6 months of new cars sales which were missing (i.e. we'd have a total backlog of 18 months of car sales). Now we could out perform 10% growth year on year. However it's likely that will end up with between 15 and 18 months of backlog - unless things don't start to improve soon and then a 24 month backlog (or more) isn't that unlikey.

The one area which could help keep that backlog down is that between 2009 and 2013 the rolling 12 month total averaged out at about 2 million a year.

That's going to keep car prices high for some time, however it pans out.

The longer that lasts the more costly car ownership is going to be (which isn't good for those who wish to drive) but if there's cuts to rail services there's not going to be viable options for people to use. Without those viable options there's a risk that it would put more towards pressure on car prices.

It's another reason that arguably we shouldn't be looking to making cuts to rail services until we have a better idea of how this is going to plan out.

 

[ar10642]

Indeed. Bexhill is also pleasant, albeit a lot sleepier. Notably of course the coast way railway connects the larger south coast Sussex towns to Brighton and London and they’re all fairly decent. Even Hastings seems better than it used to be.

Not that commutable to London due to the long journey times, however.

Yes but likely you'll need to do that in order to afford to live there, unless you bought years ago.

 

[JamesT]

Interestingly if we look back at 2007 (15 years ago, so the average age of cars) there were 2,404,007 car sales, that means that during 2022 that there was about 790,000 fewer vehicles compared with those which we would have expected to have been replaced:

Which would be fine if it was just one year, however last year at 1,631,063 which was also down on the 2006 numbers 2,344,894, which was a further 713,831 fewer.

With 2020 also down at 1,631,064 with 2005 being 2,439,717, so 808,653.

However 2019, whilst at 2,311,140, was still down on 2004 which was 2,567,269 so down 256,129.

Even if we recovered to pre pandemic levels we'd need an extra 1 year's worth of sales in addition to the normal rates to bring average car ages back to where they were pre pandemic.

However it's unlikely that sales will revive quickly. As it's not just something which is limited to this country.

This could cause issues.

The problem is that if we are also reducing rail and bus capacity then it could well be that it starts to get harder and more expensive to get about, regardless of your preferred mode of transport.

To put this in perspective, if we assume we add 10% to the 2022 numbers to get to the 2023 numbers (and so on), it would take 5 years to get back to sales of 2.6 million new cars and we'd have baked in a further 6 months of new cars sales which were missing (i.e. we'd have a total backlog of 18 months of car sales). Now we could out perform 10% growth year on year. However it's likely that will end up with between 15 and 18 months of backlog - unless things don't start to improve soon and then a 24 month backlog (or more) isn't that unlikey.

The one area which could help keep that backlog down is that between 2009 and 2013 the rolling 12 month total averaged out at about 2 million a year.

That's going to keep car prices high for some time, however it pans out.

The longer that lasts the more costly car ownership is going to be (which isn't good for those who wish to drive) but if there's cuts to rail services there's not going to be viable options for people to use. Without those viable options there's a risk that it would put more towards pressure on car prices.

It's another reason that arguably we shouldn't be looking to making cuts to rail services until we have a better idea of how this is going to plan out.

I think looking at sales alone is giving a misleading picture. As noted previously, modern cars are getting increasingly reliable. People don’t just junk their cars when they get to an arbitrary date.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/299972/average-age-of-cars-on-the-road-in-the-united-kingdom/ shows the number of licensed cars has increased over the last two decades from 27.2m to 32.7m in 2020. The growth stalled around the financial crisis but then resumed.
https://nationalscrapcar.co.uk/blog/scrap-car-trends/ talks of around 1m cars scrapped every year. Even if only 1.6m were sold last year, that’s still a net 600k more cars on the road.

 

[jayah]

I am only using the numbers from the reopening report.

As to the 5 return journeys per head of population, not sure when that is for, however given 2019/20 was 11 (not London), I can only guess at it being for 2021/22.

Some examples which raise the validity; Okehampton managed 3.85 in 6 months, whilst Truro (population of 23,000 and use of 1.049 million, so comparable in population to Barnstaple) manages (excluding interchanges) 17. Likewise just the top 5 stations in Cornwall (out of 36) manage to exceed 5 when compared to the whole population of Cornwall when looking at 2021/22 data (which is likely to be significantly lower than 2022/23 data just based on looking at Q2 2022/23 vs Q4 2021/22, with Q3 of 2022/23 likely to be higher still). As such 5 return trips is likely to be surpassed this year with closer to 10 being possible (85% of 11 would be over 9).

Also I'm not sure Barnstaple is a good comparison station, as it's quite some distance from Exeter (journey time of over double that which Tavistock would see to Plymouth).

Truro is not remotely comparable as a huge inbound tourist destination with a huge catchment across mid Cornwall.

I see on the Okehampton discussion the route is claiming 258k, of which around 25-30k is the half of the previous Crediton demand the new service is now capturing. The proportion of that which is school children is an important factor, but that is still only around £600-700k revenue.

Does that even cover leasing and maintaining the 4 carriages needed to run the service, let alone goodness knows how many crew?

 

[The Ham]

I think looking at sales alone is giving a misleading picture. As noted previously, modern cars are getting increasingly reliable. People don’t just junk their cars when they get to an arbitrary date.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/299972/average-age-of-cars-on-the-road-in-the-united-kingdom/ shows the number of licensed cars has increased over the last two decades from 27.2m to 32.7m in 2020. The growth stalled around the financial crisis but then resumed.
https://nationalscrapcar.co.uk/blog/scrap-car-trends/ talks of around 1m cars scrapped every year. Even if only 1.6m were sold last year, that’s still a net 600k more cars on the road.

Scrapping of cars isn't the only way for cars to leave the system, as 2021 to 2022 saw the total number of registered cars rise by about 184,000.

I understand that cars are getting more reliable (although by how much since 2007 is open for debate - certainly a lot better than 1995), the point which I was making is that the average age of cars is getting older (and between 2009 and 2013 this has already happened and not likely to come out of the mix for at least a few more years).

Whilst it's currently not an issue, if we take too much longer to get to more normal levels of new cars it could be.

It's also worth noting that the last drop in car registrations was for a 4 year period and generally had higher levels of sales than us currently the case.

Whilst the financial crisis did got a lot of places, it was fairly easy to ramp up production when it was needed again. The chip shortage has been ongoing for some time and didn't appear to be showing signs of improving (current lead times of about 52 weeks).

Whilst there'll be new production capacity coming on line over the next 12 months, it's going to take time before that will help, as lead times may improve, but they've got a long way to go. Which is why there may still be a lag before we see pre Covid levels of car sales.

 

[jayah]

Northern is where the most opportunity is to save costs but will only be trimmed at the edges as politically too much at stake for the Tories now in its operating area.

There is almost nothing at stake in their operating area. They have about 4 red wall MPs and they don't need them returned to get a majority. If one of the Mayors want to complain, let them raise taxes to cover it.

 

[The Ham]

Truro is not remotely comparable as a huge inbound tourist destination with a huge catchment across mid Cornwall.

Which is why I then went on to look at the total population of Cornwall compared to the top five stations to get to the 5 per person (this also means that it limits the risk of double counting - as whilst there's bound to be travel between those top 5 stations, there likely to be travel between the other 31 stations which don't go to those top 5).

I also asked over what time period that 5 per person rate was for, as if it's 2020/21 then 2021/22 will be higher than this and 2022/23 will be considerably higher still (unlikely to be double as that was what it broadly wasin 2019/20, but 8 probably isn't beyond the realms of possibility).

The other factor to consider is that 5 per person includes places with no rail station, by that definition somewhere with a station is likely to exceed the average

I see on the Okehampton discussion the route is claiming 258k, of which around 25-30k is the half of the previous Crediton demand the new service is now capturing. The proportion of that which is school children is an important factor, but that is still only around £600-700k revenue.

Does that even cover leasing and maintaining the 4 carriages needed to run the service, let alone goodness knows how many crew?

I was saying that Tavistock reopening report claimed to cover its costs, I didn't say that Okehampton did or didn't.

However again over what time period is that circa 230k passengers for?

If it's 2021/22 those passenger numbers are likely to be quite a bit smaller than 2022/23. Over the whole of 2021/22 GWR had 55 million passengers, in the first half of 2022/23 it's 40 million, if we match that again that's likely to be 80 million (145% of the 2021/22 numbers).

However looking at the pre Covid use data from DfT Q3 for the whole rail industry looks like it's going to be higher.

Now whilst that's likely to be circa £1 million, of income or is likely that's still going to be below the likely cost of £1.6 million for all costs (based on the old £110,000/coach lease cost increased by 50% for inflation and then assuming that this is 1/3 of all rail costs - which could be off by some margin, not least as lease costs I've seen recently set it at 27% of total costs which would set it about the £2 million mark).

 

[yorksrob]

There is almost nothing at stake in their operating area. They have about 4 red wall MPs and they don't need them returned to get a majority. If one of the Mayors want to complain, let them raise taxes to cover it.

This is why we need full devolution to the Regions. Everywhere is currently subject to the whims of the London bubble.

 

[coppercapped]

Scrapping of cars isn't the only way for cars to leave the system, as 2021 to 2022 saw the total number of registered cars rise by about 184,000.

I understand that cars are getting more reliable (although by how much since 2007 is open for debate - certainly a lot better than 1995), the point which I was making is that the average age of cars is getting older (and between 2009 and 2013 this has already happened and not likely to come out of the mix for at least a few more years).

Whilst it's currently not an issue, if we take too much longer to get to more normal levels of new cars it could be.

It's also worth noting that the last drop in car registrations was for a 4 year period and generally had higher levels of sales than us currently the case.

Whilst the financial crisis did got a lot of places, it was fairly easy to ramp up production when it was needed again. The chip shortage has been ongoing for some time and didn't appear to be showing signs of improving (current lead times of about 52 weeks).

Whilst there'll be new production capacity coming on line over the next 12 months, it's going to take time before that will help, as lead times may improve, but they've got a long way to go. Which is why there may still be a lag before we see pre Covid levels of car sales.

I'm getting confused!

The DfT's statistics (datasheet VEH1111) on the total vehicle parc shows the following development for passenger cars since 2005. The figures are for year's end and reach December 2021 - the figures for 2022 have not yet been published.


This shows that there has been a steady growth in the number of cars registered for use on the road until 2019. The number dropped by some 200,000 by the end of 2020 but had recovered in 2021 to be within 10,000 of the 2019 total. Sales may have fallen but the numbers were maintained by people keeping their cars longer.

One would expect at first sight that the level of competition with the railway is dictated by the total number of cars but it is noticeable that even during the years when railway passenger traffic was increasing, the number of cars was also increasing. The average age of the cars is only relevant in relation to car sales and the total parc.

 

[NorwichRailFan]

My local bus service was threatened with complete withdrawal last September. The route is now being heavily subsidised by the county council and will be reviewed again this September. Stagecoach have agreed to operate the route which was previously Trent Barton. It is now over 4 months since this change and the departures still are not displayed on the live departure screens at the Nottingham Victoria Bus Station.

The whole privatisation of Buses was a mistake. It is just natural that bus operators would want to only keep the most profitable routes and scrap the rest. This means that the routes that don't make the operators enough, even if they are profitable but just not profitable enough, either get a bare minimum service, or get cut completely. This is unless the council step in which often still leads to a largely reduced service because they can't afford to run the route at its former frequency. I think the whole idea of buses being a public service has gone out the window, It's now just a money maker for large multinational groups.

 

[The Ham]

I'm getting confused!

The DfT's statistics (datasheet VEH1111) on the total vehicle parc shows the following development for passenger cars since 2005. The figures are for year's end and reach December 2021 - the figures for 2022 have not yet been published.

View attachment 127026
This shows that there has been a steady growth in the number of cars registered for use on the road until 2019. The number dropped by some 200,000 by the end of 2020 but had recovered in 2021 to be within 10,000 of the 2019 total. Sales may have fallen but the numbers were maintained by people keeping their cars longer.

One would expect at first sight that the level of competition with the railway is dictated by the total number of cars but it is noticeable that even during the years when railway passenger traffic was increasing, the number of cars was also increasing. The average age of the cars is only relevant in relation to car sales and the total parc.

The rate of growth isn't always equal, some years are circa 600,000 whilst others are less than 100,000.

Scrapping cars is only one way which cars can leave the fleet, for instance second hand cars being exported (2021 was about 0.7 million, which just that and scrapped cars are about 1.7 million which is about our slightly higher than new cars).

Likewise cars rotting away or becoming collectors items (not driven on the public highway) - whilst not large numbers these could ,when things are in negative territory, make the gap just that bit bigger.

Whilst cars are more reliable, there's only so far this can be pushed before your start to run the risk of older cars needing to be replaced and there not being the cars to replace them.

As I've pointed out before when this happens before (2009 to 2013) it was limited to 4 years (with growth being visible before the end of the 4 years).

Whilst it's unlikely to be an issue now if we continue with slow growth in the total number of cars and the number of new sales not matching the number being scrapped or exported (or otherwise "lost" from the fleet), there come a point where it could become an issue.

Given that we've seen about 8 years of low new sales in the last 15 years already if low new sales continue there's a risk that even cars becoming more reliable may not be enough to stop the cost of car ownership rising more than it already has through increased purchase costs (both me and second hand).

 

[bramling]

I know it attracts some mirth for its age demographic, but Eastbourne genuinely is lovely.

Yet both Lewes and Eastbourne I’ve always found pretty rough. I have family who live near Lewes and they’re quite cautionary going into town in the evenings especially at the weekend.

Heathfield, despite being quite pricey, also has a rather rough feel. I stopped off there recently on a Sunday evening (on way back from a few days in Battle in order to keep my running mileage up by having a nocturnal run down the Cuckoo Trail to Hellingly and back!) and the place felt very downtrodden - absolutely dead in the evening but plenty of chavs hanging around the few open shops.

 

[farleigh]

I know East Sussex very well, thanks, and have walked much of the South Downs way (which is doable by rail).

Towns without the railway such as Hailsham are pretty down at heel. Even places like Haywards Heath and Crawley (which have stations) aren’t places many would want to visit.



If the Cuckoo line had remained open the character of places like Hailsham I mentioned above would be very different.

I bow to your knowledge of East Sussex lol

 

[AM9]

The rate of growth isn't always equal, some years are circa 600,000 whilst others are less than 100,000.

Scrapping cars is only one way which cars can leave the fleet, for instance second hand cars being exported (2021 was about 0.7 million, which just that and scrapped cars are about 1.7 million which is about our slightly higher than new cars).

Likewise cars rotting away or becoming collectors items (not driven on the public highway) - whilst not large numbers these could ,when things are in negative territory, make the gap just that bit bigger.

Whilst cars are more reliable, there's only so far this can be pushed before your start to run the risk of older cars needing to be replaced and there not being the cars to replace them.

As I've pointed out before when this happens before (2009 to 2013) it was limited to 4 years (with growth being visible before the end of the 4 years).

Whilst it's unlikely to be an issue now if we continue with slow growth in the total number of cars and the number of new sales not matching the number being scrapped or exported (or otherwise "lost" from the fleet), there come a point where it could become an issue.

Given that we've seen about 8 years of low new sales in the last 15 years already if low new sales continue there's a risk that even cars becoming more reliable may not be enough to stop the cost of car ownership rising more than it already has through increased purchase costs (both me and second hand).

Maybe the major manufacturers feel that as the deadline for halting ICVs approaches that production lines can be wound down earlier, allowing EV production to ramp up giving earlier opportunities to grab their share of the EV market. The dying ICV demand will progressively be forced to look for better kept cars, whilst the 'banger' trade will keep the bottom tier of cheap runarounds going until fuel prices rise due to each litre carying a greater proportion of refining and distribution costs.

 

[ar10642]

Yet both Lewes and Eastbourne I’ve always found pretty rough. I have family who live near Lewes and they’re quite cautionary going into town in the evenings especially at the weekend.

Heathfield, despite being quite pricey, also has a rather rough feel. I stopped off there recently on a Sunday evening (on way back from a few days in Battle in order to keep my running mileage up by having a nocturnal run down the Cuckoo Trail to Hellingly and back!) and the place felt very downtrodden - absolutely dead in the evening but plenty of chavs hanging around the few open shops.

Unfortunately this is what's happening in parts of the supposedly affluent South East. Sky high property prices caused by people being driven out of London (also due to said prices) but average to poor local wages and prospects without long commutes; or remote work only possible for some. It's my home, m friends and family are here
and I don't want to leave it but living here feels like living on a treadmill sometimes, I'd probably be better off in the north somewhere. I think some of these areas, along with east and north Kent, are just as deserving as the north for "levelling up".

 

[paul1609]

It's just a park and ride for London and Brighton effectively.



None of the towns in East Sussex are that great except for Lewes which you pretty much have to be millionaire to live in now. The nice parts (e.g. Ashdown Forest, Cuckmere Valley, Sheffield Park etc) are mostly not accessible by rail on a practical level. Haywards Heath and Crawley are West Sussex.

Hmm Rye, Battle, Robertsbridge, Crowborough, Eastbourne, Hastings I could go on!
Berwick Station is about 1/2 mile from the River Cuckmere, Cuckmere Haven 2.7 miles from Seaford Station via one of the most iconic beauty spots in the UK
Exceat Bridge has a bus Brighton to Eastbourne every 10 mins.
Ashdown Forest has walks starting at Ashurst, Eridge and Crowborough stations.
I think you are talking tosh (and I'm a Kent Boy).

 

[43066]

I bow to your knowledge of East Sussex lol

Yep, I slightly shot myself in the foot there!

 

[ar10642]

Hmm Rye, Battle, Robertsbridge, Crowborough, Eastbourne, Hastings I could go on!
Berwick Station is about 1/2 mile from the River Cuckmere, Cuckmere Haven 2.7 miles from Seaford Station via one of the most iconic beauty spots in the UK
Exceat Bridge has a bus Brighton to Eastbourne every 10 mins.
Ashdown Forest has walks starting at Ashurst, Eridge and Crowborough stations.
I think you are talking tosh (and I'm a Kent Boy).

Everybody drives to all those places. Very few people are going to want to do a 5.2 mile round walking trip before you even get to where you want to be, which is why there is a huge car park at Cuckmere. The amount of people using Ashurst station to get to the Ashdown Forest is something close to zero, especially as the line is a useless dead end.

This whole thing was in response to an assertion that the only places worth going to had a railway station which is not even true in my small part of the world. Unless we're counting rural infrequent bus services you have to pay extra for as "accessible by rail". I can't see many leaving their cars behind to do that though.