Possible services for baltica high-speed line

[StephenHunter]

The Soviet Union didn't exactly invest in public infrastructure there, that's for sure.

 

[Austriantrain]

The Soviet Union didn't exactly invest in public infrastructure there, that's for sure.

Oh, they did, but good connections between suspect Soviet republics were not a priority; getting to Russia was and that is how the railways mostly still run.

 

[MarcVD]

There were better connections between the Baltic states under the soviet rule than today.

 

[duesselmartin]

There were better connections between the Baltic states under the soviet rule than today.

yes I think rail services generally suffered after independence. It just lacked money in the 1990s.

 

[gingerheid]

There were better connections between the Baltic states under the soviet rule than today.

There is also a little bit more to the story though!

First of all, they were bearable because everything else was even more bad; if recreated today nobody would use them except particularly keen railway enthusiasts!

And while post 90s railway investment was slow to catch up with the things that made aspects of the previous railway system defunct (but is now starting to do so, with things like linespeed improvements on routes like Tallinn - Tartu that have made it competitive with road and have seen big increases in demand), the lack of investment that created that situation actually started a long time ago! There are respects in which the railways that the Soviet Union left Estonia with weren't as good as the railways Estonia had when it was occupied!

 

[daodao]

International rail services attract passengers when travelling time and distances are not too excessive, service frequency is reasonable, the links are between cities of reasonable size, and border crossings involve minimal hassle. They require active promotion by the railway administrations of all the states involved. Most of these criteria really don't apply in the Baltic states, although in theory the Tallinn-St Petersburg route could be speeded up and developed like that now running between Helsinki and St Petersburg.

Rail Baltica is a political vanity project funded by the EU and use of a different track gauge will complicate integration with existing rail services. Given that the existing railway administrations can't be bothered to run many services between the Baltic states themselves or to neighbouring states, why will Rail Baltica improve this?

 

[Austriantrain]

International rail services attract passengers when travelling time and distances are not too excessive, service frequency is reasonable, the links are between cities of reasonable size, and border crossings involve minimal hassle. They require active promotion by the railway administrations of all the states involved. Most of these criteria really don't apply in the Baltic states, although in theory the Tallinn-St Petersburg route could be speeded up and developed like that now running between Helsinki and St Petersburg.

Rail Baltica is a political vanity project funded by the EU and use of a different track gauge will complicate integration with existing rail services. Given that the existing railway administrations can't be bothered to run many services between the Baltic states themselves or to neighbouring states, why will Rail Baltica improve this?

You actually answered yourself. RB is the only way to achieve the infrastructure conditions set out in your first paragraph for successful international services. As to whether it will be a success, we will see. Personally, I wouldn’t see why not - if train service is frequent enough, it will become the transport of choice between the major Baltic cities.

Of course, even RB will not be able to change the fact that the Baltics are a long way off anywhere in Western Europe; and even Warsaw is not around the corner.

A vanity project however it is certainly not.

 

[daodao]

major Baltic cities.

That is the problem - only Riga is a major city, and the Baltic states (which had small populations anyway) have suffered massive depopulation since they joined the EU. They are too sparsely populated to justify high speed rail, and it is stupid building it to an non-standard gauge for these countries.

Riga's population in 1989 was 909,181; in 2020 it was 630,692.

The historical population of Latvia overall according to Wikipedia is shown in the following table,

Year	Pop.	±%
1863	1,240,988	—
1897	1,929,387	+55.5%
1914	2,552,000	+32.3%
1920	1,596,131	−37.5%
1925	1,844,805	+15.6%
1930	1,900,045	+3.0%
1935	1,950,936	+2.7%
1943	1,760,162	−9.8%
1950	1,943,146	+10.4%
1959	2,079,948	+7.0%
1970	2,351,903	+13.1%
1979	2,502,816	+6.4%
1989	2,666,567	+6.5%
2000	2,377,383	−10.8%
2011	2,070,371	−12.9%
2020	1,893,700	−8.5%

It is interesting to note that the greatest growth in Latvia's population was prior to 1914, and between 1944 and 1989, when it was under Russian control, and population decreases have occurred when it was under German hegemony, in the latter part of WW1, and from 1941 to 1944 when they butchered significant segments of the population, and since 1991 when it has been under German/EU influence.

 

[edwin_m]

On the other hand the Baltics are fairly flat so the cost of building a high-speed line isn't that much more than a conventional one. For north-south flows it makes sense to tie into the standard-gauge lines in Poland instead of hurting their viability by imposing a break of gauge.

 

[gingerheid]

It is interesting to note that the greatest growth in Latvia's population was prior to 1914, and between 1944 and 1989, when it was under Russian control, and population decreases have occurred when it was under German hegemony, in the latter part of WW1, and from 1941 to 1944 when they butchered significant segments of the population, and since 1991 when it has been under German/EU influence.

The Soviets did indeed move more Russians to the Baltic States than they did deport Balts to Siberia. I'm pretty sure it's not looked upon as a wonderful moment in any of their histories!

With the exception of Kaunas, however, the populations of the main places that will be connected by Rail Baltica are either rising or are not falling, and I'm sure the arrival of Rail Baltica will herald better times for Kaunas!

 

[daodao]

With the exception of Kaunas, however, the populations of the main places that will be connected by Rail Baltica are either rising or are not falling.

The population of Riga is still declining: it has decreased by 30% in the last 30 years and is projected to fall by a further 40k by 2035.

When the Baltic states were linked with Russia, their port cities had a role as a link between Russia and the rest of Europe. With the imposition of the hard EU/NATO frontier on their eastern borders, the Baltic states have become fringe backwater regions, that naturally tend to depopulate. Finland, which is not part of NATO and has maintained reasonable relations with Russia, is not so affected. They might have been better off choosing the "Finland" option.

Depopulated areas don't result in viable railways, which can only be maintained or developed by government largesse, in this case from the EU.

 

[StephenHunter]

That would have put them in Ukraine's position. Remember they are not Slavic nations too.

 

[gingerheid]

When the Baltic states were linked with Russia, their port cities had a role as a link between Russia and the rest of Europe. With the imposition of the hard EU/NATO frontier on their eastern borders, the Baltic states have become fringe backwater regions, that naturally tend to depopulate. Finland, which is not part of NATO and has maintained reasonable relations with Russia, is not so affected. They might have been better off choosing the "Finland" option.

I feel I know what sort of places you're getting your political views from, and I feel I should encourage you to read more widely.

Russia indeed believes it represented a golden era to all it occupied. You would find few in the Baltic states willing to agree.

The Baltic states are thriving, and I'm sure Rail Baltic will be a happy and successful part of a happy successful exciting future.

 

[daodao]

That would have put them in Ukraine's position. Remember they are not Slavic nations too.

I am not going to comment on this political point, but merely re-iterate that in my previous post I referred to Finland, with which the Baltic states have much more in common (Estonia even has a very similar language and the same Lutheran religion), not the Ukraine.

The Baltic states are thriving, and I'm sure Rail Baltic will be a happy and successful part of a happy successful exciting future.

Thriving states/regions do not depopulate. The Baltic states are places from which people with "get up and go" have "got up and gone". Other examples that spring to mind in this context are the upper parts of the South Wales valleys since the collapse of coal-mining/heavy industry, and the west of Ireland since the famine. In contrast with Latvia, the population of Finland increased from 4.0 million in 1950, to 5.0 million in 1990 and 5.5 million in 2020 (rounded to 1 dp).

I am merely trying to make a geographic/economic point (not a political one, which would be off topic), in the context of rail development.

It is interesting to compare the range of international passenger rail services in the borderlands of Russia (post collapse of the USSR) in Cook's European passenger rail timetable dated 1995, with the few surviving 20 years later in a 2015 edition of the same timetable. One of those that has disappeared is the Balti express, from Tallinn via Riga and Kaunas to Sestokai, for a direct connection to Warsaw. Is there really an economic case to recreate this rail service in the era of low-cost airlines?

 

[gingerheid]

Unfortunately you are failing to present a valid geographic / economic point because your thinking has been so blinded by a political view that the result is presentation of an obscure political view, even if you don't realise it!

The idea that the Baltic states (whether with the same population or less) are, for lack of contact with Russia, economically worse off now than in 1992 is simply incorrect, and ludicrously so. The GDP and GDP per capita of the countries has increased by huge multiples, as you can see from many sites like https://rf.mokslasplius.lt/the-phenomenon-of-economic-growth-of-baltic-states/ , and by an amount vastly greater than countries that stayed within the Russian sphere of influence. There may be 60 Baltic people for every 78 that there were 30 years ago, but those 60 can afford an awful lot more travel and see an awful lot more tourism in their countries than the previous 78 did, and they aren't going to be interested in putting up with anything of the standard of the previous Baltic Express. (And indeed even Russians aren't so interested in the rather traditional style rail services, as against luxury coaches and air travel.) Has Estonia caught up with Finland? Not quite. But it's had more than 70 unoccupied years less to do it; the progress it has achieved in less than 30 years is remarkable.

Geographically, they are also not worse off. The situation of their ports hasn't changed, and where there is Russian - European trade to facilitate they continue to do so. However it is the case that there is less of such trade, and so ports like Paldiski are now rather more likely to import western cars for Russia than they are to export Russian cars to Europe. I only know all too well why; I remember the pain of my father's Lada. I much prefer my Slovakian made VW (with carpeting made in Haapsalu, the exact type of trade that the freight provision in Rail Baltica will facilitate)! It is also the case that the status of oil trans-shipments is significantly changing.

There may be Welsh Valleys within the Baltic States (Ida Virumaa, for example), but the Baltic States are not the Welsh Valleys. Is there less demand for oil shale mined in Kohtla Jarve? Yes, there is, and the (former) mining area around Kohtla Jarve is suffering as did the Welsh Valleys. However my local parcel locker was designed and manufactured in Viljandi, and increasing numbers of streets in Britain are served by delivery robots made in Estonia (even if the headquarters of the company are now in the US, run by people that emigrated from Estonia...).

 

[edwin_m]

There may be Welsh Valleys within the Baltic States.

Not wanting to start an off-topic discussion, but I think most people would agree that the Welsh Valleys would have been a lot worse off if it wasn't for their rail connections to Cardiff, and the decisions over the years to develop rather than abandoning them. There's good evidence that improving communications to a deprived area helps its recovery, and rail does this in the least unsustainable way.

 

[gingerheid]

Not wanting to start an off-topic discussion, but I think most people would agree that the Welsh Valleys would have been a lot worse off if it wasn't for their rail connections to Cardiff, and the decisions over the years to develop rather than abandoning them. There's good evidence that improving communications to a deprived area helps its recovery, and rail does this in the least unsustainable way.

I don't think anyone has suggested any different? Narva has better services than it's ever had before, Daugavpils ticks along... etc. The services that have been cut have been rural routes, or, as people have been talking about in this thread, through cross border services. Services to the post industrial population centres tick along!