Possible XC Voyager replacements.

[RobShipway]

However by the time the train exits Birmingham it probably won't be back at 100% SOC, so there might be limitation as to where it goes next. Hence why it might be worth having a 3rd rail pick up so that by the time the train leaves the 3rd rail network at Abingdon it's at 100% charge.

There is no 3rd rail network at Abingdon. Any train would only be using 3rd rail to Basingstoke, there is no point in extending it as beyond Basingstoke, you are better off having OHL.

You appear to have conflated fleets in squadron service with the last surviving remnants some decades later: The equivalent in your 2049 scenario would be perhaps five Voyagers surviving in service with, say, an Open Access operator, with the rest having been withdrawn many years previously. Certainly, based on historic precedent they would not remain in operation on the services they were designed and built for, as BR frequently replaced and cascaded rolling stock from frontline long distance services after comparatively few years.

But that is my point by 2049, you would have new stock and yes it is possibly a Tri-mode fleet that is working for XC. Whether it is using third rail by 2049, that is another point again!

Also, whether the XC routes that we have today are with the same operator in 2049 is also going to be another question. A lot can happen in that time.

 

[D365]

But that is my point by 2049, you would have new stock and yes it is possibly a Tri-mode fleet that is working for XC. Whether it is using third rail by 2049, that is another point again!

Which is a point that has nothing to do with the Mk1-Mk4 LHCS, that I apparently have zero familiarity with!

 

[sprinterguy]

But that is my point by 2049, you would have new stock and yes it is possibly a Tri-mode fleet that is working for XC. Whether it is using third rail by 2049, that is another point again!

You stated that:

With XC have trains that are no more than 24 years old currently in the shape of the 220's and 23 years in the shape of the 221's, then I cannot see them getting any new trains for the next 25 years to be honest.

The only conclusion I could infer from that is that you do think that XC could still be operating Voyagers in, or immediately prior to, 2049, particularly given your references to the longevity of residual BR stock.

 

[RobShipway]

You stated that:

The only conclusion I could infer from that is that you do think that XC could still be operating Voyagers in, or immediately prior to, 2049, particularly given your references to the longevity of residual BR stock.

There is no reason why XC would stop using the Voyagers before 2049. Why would you think that they would stop using prior to 2049?

 

[The Ham]

There is no reason why XC would stop using the Voyagers before 2049. Why would you think that they would stop using prior to 2049?

I can think of several reasons, there's been more electrification making the user of EMU and BEMU a no brainer, the fact that rail use has expanded meaning that the vast majority of services need 500+ seats, that HS2 and NPR and maybe other schemes have changed the nature of which lines services should run on, over time more trains could be damaged beyond repair and finally (whilst there's likely to be others) there's also the small factor of the age of them even if they are viable to run it may well be that improvements to safety means that they are retired - for example it may be that adding in cab signalling may not be cost effective.

 

[sprinterguy]

There is no reason why XC would stop using the Voyagers before 2049. Why would you think that they would stop using prior to 2049?

I've previously outlined a couple:

• There is growing pressure on the rail industry to reduce diesel emissions, particularly at covered stations in major cities, and particularly at Birmingham New Street, the hub of the Crosscountry network
• They have insufficient capacity as single units to meet passenger demand

Additionally, there's the continued wear on and possible scarcity of mechanical components, though that's dependent on the longevity of the supply chain.

Historically, there are very few inter-city fleets that have survived to nearly fifty years old still in squadron service on the services they were introduced on - the GWR HSTs are something of an outlier in that regard. While Crosscountry has long been regarded as the 'cinderella' of the inter-city operations, replacement of train fleets on the West Coast, Midland Mainline and East Coast (225 sets - the residual HST fleet was rather older) routes while the incumbent stock is in the 20 - 30 year age bracket suggests that this hasn't changed. I could envisage the Voyagers making it to 35 years old.

 

[Snow1964]

There is no reason why XC would stop using the Voyagers before 2049. Why would you think that they would stop using prior to 2049?

Whilst some could still be in use in late 2040s, I suspect electrification of various lines freeing up bi-modes will allow them to take over some services.

If as proposed got lines around Sheffield electrified, plus others eg around Oxford, the diesel gaps are going to become relatively short.

To some extent diesel fuel might be a niche product by late 2040s in Europe too. Likely to still be available, but at what cost,

 

[RobShipway]

I can think of several reasons, there's been more electrification making the user of EMU and BEMU a no brainer, the fact that rail use has expanded meaning that the vast majority of services need 500+ seats, that HS2 and NPR and maybe other schemes have changed the nature of which lines services should run on, over time more trains could be damaged beyond repair and finally (whilst there's likely to be others) there's also the small factor of the age of them even if they are viable to run it may well be that improvements to safety means that they are retired - for example it may be that adding in cab signalling may not be cost effective.

That is fair points. However, the Government in the last 14 years has spent little or no money on electrification of existing routes. In fact, I would say that the money to electrify existing routes that would have been spent has gone on HS2. Whilst I see the need for HS2, there should have if possible also have been money spent on electrifying not just the Great Western Mainline between London Paddington to Newbury and Cardiff and Midland Mainline to Market Harborough, but other routes too. I know that there has been electrification going on within Wales and Scotland. Not sure, if those come under the UK Rail plan expenditure or whether those are expenditures by both the Welsh and Scottish Governments. I am presuming the latter, which for me says that there was very little spent in the UK when it comes to electrification, not to the point where you would be able to be rid of diesel trains prior to 2049.

You have to remember that the planning of the Great Western mainline electrification was about 10 years in the planning and about the same time in being built to what we have presently on the Great Western Mainline.

So any new trains to replace the Voyagers would either need to be still using diesel in some fashion or be able to travel 500 miles plus on battery from being charged from OHL use.

I've previously outlined a couple:

• There is growing pressure on the rail industry to reduce diesel emissions, particularly at covered stations in major cities, and particularly at Birmingham New Street, the hub of the Crosscountry network
• They have insufficient capacity as single units to meet passenger demand

Additionally, there's the continued wear on and possible scarcity of mechanical components, though that's dependent on the longevity of the supply chain.

Historically, there are very few inter-city fleets that have survived to nearly fifty years old still in squadron service on the services they were introduced on - the GWR HSTs are something of an outlier in that regard. While Crosscountry has long been regarded as the 'cinderella' of the inter-city operations, replacement of train fleets on the West Coast, Midland Mainline and East Coast (225 sets - the residual HST fleet was rather older) routes while the incumbent stock is in the 20 - 30 year age bracket suggests that this hasn't changed. I could envisage the Voyagers making it to 35 years old.

See my comments above. Whilst I agree that there is very few fleets that are still in operation on the routes that they originally served on after 30 - 50 years of service. I can see the Voyagers being an exception, unless any future TOC running XC is allowed to replace the stock.

Whilst some could still be in use in late 2040s, I suspect electrification of various lines freeing up bi-modes will allow them to take over some services.

If as proposed got lines around Sheffield electrified, plus others eg around Oxford, the diesel gaps are going to become relatively short.

To some extent diesel fuel might be a niche product by late 2040s in Europe too. Likely to still be available, but at what cost,

See my comments above, with regards electrification. Certainly within England, we need to be electrifying 3 times more routes than are currently done each year to be able to have no diesel engine trains by 2050. Otherwise as I state above, you need to be building trains that can do 500 miles plus on battery power.

 

[Trainbike46]

There is no reason why XC would stop using the Voyagers before 2049. Why would you think that they would stop using prior to 2049?

Because the 220s/221s are from 2001, so they would likely be life-expired before 2049 assuming a 40-year lifespan, as well as all the reasons outlined by The Ham and others

 

[RobShipway]

Because the 220s/221s are from 2001, so they would likely be life-expired before 2049 assuming a 40-year lifespan, as well as all the reasons outlined by The Ham and others

So if finances of the country are the same for the next 20 or more years or worse than they are today, such that not much in the way of track mileage is changed to be Overhead Electrified than we have today, then what?

 

[Trainbike46]

So if finances of the country are the same for the next 20 or more years or worse than they are today, such that not much in the way of track mileage is changed to be Overhead Electrified than we have today, then what?

If the UK opts for societal collapse, then the replacement of voyagers is rather academical isn't it?

 

[Bletchleyite]

If the UK opts for societal collapse, then the replacement of voyagers is rather academical isn't it?

In what manner would "societal collapse" be "opted" for?

 

[RobShipway]

If the UK opts for societal collapse, then the replacement of voyagers is rather academical isn't it?

In what manner would "societal collapse" be "opted" for?

Somehow I don't think the UK will opt for social collapse, it will be where it's finances and the world of business takes it.

For the new type of trains that you want there has to be planning now in converting railway lines to be electrified, that can take 5 or more years and then take 10 years to implement the plan in this country. Prime examples are HS2 and the electrification of the Great Western mainline. As the wiki page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Western_Main_Line_upgrade states announcement on the Great Western Mainline electrification was announced in 2009. Work on electrifying the line though did not start until 2010. However, you could not get an electric train from London to Cardiff until 2020! You cannot get an electric train between London to Oxford. Hence, why I say that diesel trains will be around still in 2049 and that includes the Voyagers.

 

[The Ham]

Somehow I don't think the UK will opt for social collapse, it will be where it's finances and the world of business takes it.

For the new type of trains that you want there has to be planning now in converting railway lines to be electrified, that can take 5 or more years and then take 10 years to implement the plan in this country. Prime examples are HS2 and the electrification of the Great Western mainline. As the wiki page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Western_Main_Line_upgrade states announcement on the Great Western Mainline electrification was announced in 2009. Work on electrifying the line though did not start until 2010. However, you could not get an electric train from London to Cardiff until 2020! You cannot get an electric train between London to Oxford. Hence, why I say that diesel trains will be around still in 2049 and that includes the Voyagers.

Not having enough electrification does not mean that the Voyagers will still be in service.

There's other trains which could be used, even if BEMU's weren't suitable.

Scotland had a rolling programme of electrification, so it's unlikely that XC North of the boarder would be an issue.

Likewise TPU is adding electrification in the North, which closes the gaps there.

Likewise the MML is adding more errors, and whilst they may not be enough to shorten the gap for XC as the plans are currently, there's the potential that a few more miles here and there could shorten the gaps a bit more.

Birmingham to the South Coast/Reading is likely to see the gaps close up (at least Reading to Oxford) over the timeframe. Especially if any new unit could use third rail.

The big problem is from Birmingham to the Southwest, where there's a need for a lot of electrification to be done. However, that could become the home for some of the 80x fleet. Especially if you could do just enough electrification so that the "electric" versions with their one diesel engine which can move the train at 40moh could be enough to extend the range just enough to make them viable.

Whilst that engine wouldn't be enough to keep the train at line speed on its own, if it was charging batteries from as some as it leaves the wires it's going to allow the batteries to run the trains for quite some distance.

 

[ainsworth74]

I think the latest iteration of this extensively debated topic has probably reached its conclusion at this point considering we're beginning to factor in the relevance of societal collapse to the equation

I would suggest anyone with an interest in the topic review the threads linked way back in post two of this thread. I suspect any idea you have has probably already been discussed there!!