Potential up to 2,000 job losses at Alstom Derby

[Invincible]

The current Governments plan for a boom in orders (page 3), which could all go overseas, hence the Government saying the UK factories production lines might have to get overseas export orders to stay open.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65e862a15b65240011f21a74/dft-current-expected-rolling-stock-procurement-opportunities.pdf

 

[43066]

Networker replacement

Yes, but is that “probable”? I know there was an ITT some time ago, but all has gone very quiet.

 

[DanNCL]

Is there a probable Southeastern order?

Yes

 

[43066]

Yes

I’ll refer you to my last post.

The Huw Merriman letter referenced above stresses that it’s “subject to business case approval” so, unless that’s known to he imminent, how can anyone conclude the order is “probable”?

 

[DanNCL]

I’ll refer you to my last post.

The Huw Merriman letter referenced above stresses that it’s “subject to business case approval” so, unless that’s known to he imminent, how can anyone conclude the order is “probable”?

Huw Merriman can say or do what he wants, come January at the latest it won’t be up to him and it’s likely that the new Transport Secretary, probably Louise Haigh, would sign off the order if it hadn’t already been by then, same with Northern.

 

[Meerkat]

By December it might be a Labour Government who could help keep the production in the UK and help the Derby factory assembly lines and perhaps delay other tenders to reduce a boom and bust production.

Not sure how that will be welcomed by the passengers who know about the 701s or are told they have to put up with old trains to keep Derby open.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Huw Merriman can say or do what he wants, come January at the latest it won’t be up to him and it’s likely that the new Transport Secretary, probably Louise Haigh, would sign off the order if it hadn’t already been by then, same with Northern.

Train orders don't come that quickly or easily, especially if it is a new design.
Louise Haigh would face a rapid legal challenge if she simply awarded Alstom an order which was not clearly better than the competition.
And a new order doesn't fill the factory for many months after it is signed.
It's quite unclear what the procurement status is for Northern and Southeastern, not to mention the likely offerings from Alstom and the others.

 

[Snow1964]

Is there a probable Southeastern order?

Yes, Eversholt Networker replacement

described on DfT spreadsheet as between 350 and 680 vehicles, re-procurement (different scope), commencing Q2 2025 estimated to take 96 months

Future commercial contracts for DfT and partners

Listing of upcoming Department for Transport (DfT) and associated bodies commercial contracts – known as the commercial pipeline – for which bidders may apply.

www.gov.uk

 

[DanNCL]

Train orders don't come that quickly or easily, especially if it is a new design.
Louise Haigh would face a rapid legal challenge if she simply awarded Alstom an order which was not clearly better than the competition.
And a new order doesn't fill the factory for many months after it is signed.
It's quite unclear what the procurement status is for Northern and Southeastern, not to mention the likely offerings from Alstom and the others.

Obviously it goes through the normal channels. But as was the case with LNER, this is probably already going on behind closed doors. Which means, in theory, an order should be ready to be signed in that timeframe.

 

[Snow1964]

Obviously it goes through the normal channels. But as was the case with LNER, this is probably already going on behind closed doors. Which means, in theory, an order should be ready to be signed in that timeframe.

I agree, all the major manufacturers will have seen the DfT letter earlier in the year regarding procurement, and the recent update to DfT sheet will have been based on discussions that are not public.

They will all of worked out what they can offer from their families of trains, based on bits already used around Europe and would be in a position to sign order within days (it's the Government side is likely to be slower)

In theory there is nothing to stop new Government throwing out multiple orders to different manufacturers (and if they all get similar by value or vehicle numbers), unlike anyone is going to call a foul for lack of competition or transparency.

You don't have to think very hard to work out could order more of LNER type trains from CAF, Bakerloo from Siemens, some BEMUs, or whatever. Could even order follow on batch of electric locos from Stadler. They have got couple of years before have to worry about where best to allocate some of them. This is theory showing could be done, doesn't mean it will.

 

[Invincible]

I agree, all the major manufacturers will have seen the DfT letter earlier in the year regarding procurement, and the recent update to DfT sheet will have been based on discussions that are not public.

They will all of worked out what they can offer from their families of trains, based on bits already used around Europe and would be in a position to sign order within days (it's the Government side is likely to be slower)

In theory there is nothing to stop new Government throwing out multiple orders to different manufacturers (and if they all get similar by value or vehicle numbers), unlike anyone is going to call a foul for lack of competition or transparency.

You don't have to think very hard to work out could order more of LNER type trains from CAF, Bakerloo from Siemens, some BEMUs, or whatever. Could even order follow on batch of electric locos from Stadler. They have got couple of years before have to worry about where best to allocate some of them. This is theory showing could be done, doesn't mean it will.

It should not be the Government but rail professionals at GBR who award contracts.
Perhaps taking UK manufacturers in mind when they can.

Culture change vital for Great British Railways to not be Network Rail 2.0, says chief executive | New Civil Engineer

Speaking at the Public Accounts Committee’s evidence session on 29 April regarding the current rail reform that is expected tot take place across the UK’s

www.newcivilengineer.com

Good CAF are now building Civities in the UK, but CAF got to where it was with international orders through a strong home market.

 

[Stephen42]

Yes, Eversholt Networker replacement

described on DfT spreadsheet as between 350 and 680 vehicles, re-procurement (different scope), commencing Q2 2025 estimated to take 96 months

Future commercial contracts for DfT and partners

Listing of upcoming Department for Transport (DfT) and associated bodies commercial contracts – known as the commercial pipeline – for which bidders may apply.

www.gov.uk

Nothing indicates the Southeastern one is re-procurement, the reference numbers are from the 2022 procurement and the vehicle numbers are the same. My read is contract award is Q2 2025, with 96 months being the initial lease period, although the government might explore options to bring it further forward.

I agree, all the major manufacturers will have seen the DfT letter earlier in the year regarding procurement, and the recent update to DfT sheet will have been based on discussions that are not public.

They will all of worked out what they can offer from their families of trains, based on bits already used around Europe and would be in a position to sign order within days (it's the Government side is likely to be slower)

In theory there is nothing to stop new Government throwing out multiple orders to different manufacturers (and if they all get similar by value or vehicle numbers), unlike anyone is going to call a foul for lack of competition or transparency.

You don't have to think very hard to work out could order more of LNER type trains from CAF, Bakerloo from Siemens, some BEMUs, or whatever. Could even order follow on batch of electric locos from Stadler. They have got couple of years before have to worry about where best to allocate some of them. This is theory showing could be done, doesn't mean it will.

It would be unlawful to throw out multiple orders awarding directly to manufacturers without prior notice or possibility to compete. There are routes to award without competitive procedure, but these are meant for exceptional cases and need strong justification for doing so. Framework agreements cover everything awarded under that framework under the single competitive procedure, so Siemens could get an order for tube stock without issue if the funding was available.

The extra class 345 trains are a rare case, Alstom have the technical/intellectual property rights so other can't build new ones, another supplier would need extensive research & development to build equivalent trains and there is plenty of risk of trying to introduce equivalent trains given the unique constraints on the class 345s. If there is no realistic possibility of another supplier winning direct awards can be approved at very senior levels.

Other operators such as LNER would struggle to justify the same approach, they need 125mph trains and multiple suppliers could provide them - they have two different manufacturers already. They are fully entitled in their scoring to recognise benefits from similarity to existing fleet such as training/efficiency savings, but that alone wouldn't justify a lack of competitive procedure. Ordering a new concept such as BEMU at scale it would be basically impossible to justify a direct award. The legality can be challenged by anyone, compensation/voiding the contract could be attempted by any organisation who would be in a position to compete including entities that would manufacture overseas.

 

[Trainman40083]

Nothing indicates the Southeastern one is re-procurement, the reference numbers are from the 2022 procurement and the vehicle numbers are the same. My read is contract award is Q2 2025, with 96 months being the initial lease period, although the government might explore options to bring it further forward.

It would be unlawful to throw out multiple orders awarding directly to manufacturers without prior notice or possibility to compete. There are routes to award without competitive procedure, but these are meant for exceptional cases and need strong justification for doing so. Framework agreements cover everything awarded under that framework under the single competitive procedure, so Siemens could get an order for tube stock without issue if the funding was available.

The extra class 345 trains are a rare case, Alstom have the technical/intellectual property rights so other can't build new ones, another supplier would need extensive research & development to build equivalent trains and there is plenty of risk of trying to introduce equivalent trains given the unique constraints on the class 345s. If there is no realistic possibility of another supplier winning direct awards can be approved at very senior levels.

Other operators such as LNER would struggle to justify the same approach, they need 125mph trains and multiple suppliers could provide them - they have two different manufacturers already. They are fully entitled in their scoring to recognise benefits from similarity to existing fleet such as training/efficiency savings, but that alone wouldn't justify a lack of competitive procedure. Ordering a new concept such as BEMU at scale it would be basically impossible to justify a direct award. The legality can be challenged by anyone, compensation/voiding the contract could be attempted by any organisation who would be in a position to compete including entities that would manufacture overseas.

I do like to see it, when someone explains the restrictions on public procurement. You get expressions of interest, probably from pre qualified suppliers, you set the rules, and God help you, if you bend the posts at final award, as that is when the legal argument starts. For some to think Labour would just award a contract to a specific UK factory, is fantasy. It will not happen. If that factory has the best compliant bid, it may do.

 

[dorsetdesiro]

Is the Aventra platform now dead & buried that Alstom will be focusing on the new "Adessia" design for future orders?

If say Derby are successful with the Southeastern Networker replacement programme, this cannot surely be more 701s after the debacle with the SWR fleet? Possibly Adessia commuter type or along the lines of 720 if Aventra is retained?

 

[Invincible]

Is the Aventra platform now dead & buried that Alstom will be focusing on the new "Adessia" design for future orders?

If say Derby are successful with the Southeastern Networker replacement programme, this cannot surely be more 701s after the debacle with the SWR fleet? Possibly Adessia commuter type or along the lines of 720 if Aventra is retained?

Monday essay: Why Adessia could be Alstom Derby’s Great White Hope | Railnews | Today's news for Tomorrow's railway

www.railnews.co.uk

Adessia trains could be built at Derby

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Is the Aventra platform now dead & buried that Alstom will be focusing on the new "Adessia" design for future orders?

For corporate reasons after the takeover of Bombardier, Alstom needs to develop a new platform that works across its geography, Derby being just one of several sites in the same position - hence the Adessia strategy.

No doubt Derby could produce more Aventras to the existing designs (such as the Elizabeth Line extras), but once you get to design changes you are going against the Adessia strategy.
My understanding is that despite the volume of production, Aventra has not been profitable because of all the after-sales issues.
I don't know who is on the hook for poor 345 performance (compared to what the TfL contract demanded), but it may still be costing Alstom.
Keeping the factory busy but losing money on the deal is not really what Alstom want.

 

[Gag Halfrunt]

If say Derby are successful with the Southeastern Networker replacement programme, this cannot surely be more 701s after the debacle with the SWR fleet? Possibly Adessia commuter type or along the lines of 720 if Aventra is retained?

If the dual-voltage 710s work reliably on third rail power, Alstom should be able to build a reliable DC-only version of the Aventra, without using any hardware or software unique to the 701s.

 

[hwl]

Is the Aventra platform now dead & buried that Alstom will be focusing on the new "Adessia" design for future orders?

If say Derby are successful with the Southeastern Networker replacement programme, this cannot surely be more 701s after the debacle with the SWR fleet? Possibly Adessia commuter type or along the lines of 720 if Aventra is retained?

It isn't completely dead, merely rebranded.

Aventra and Adessia both have the same number of letters and start and end in A

If the dual-voltage 710s work reliably on third rail power, Alstom should be able to build a reliable DC-only version of the Aventra, without using any hardware or software unique to the 701s.

There is far more to the 701 saga than software.

I don't know who is on the hook for poor 345 performance (compared to what the TfL contract demanded), but it may still be costing Alstom..

Plenty of issues with the onboard signalling which is Siemens and Crossrail initial design strategy which appear to be with issues with the trains but are Alstom issues. (How well are the NR funded ETCS programmes going?)

 

[Meerkat]

It should not be the Government but rail professionals at GBR who award contracts.
Perhaps taking UK manufacturers in mind when they can.

Aren't the 'government' people taking decisions mainly the same rail professionals as would switch to GBR and take them there?
If rail professionals are taking the decisions they are less likely to favour a UK factory than a process involving wider government and politicians.

 

[D365]

(How well are the NR funded ETCS programmes going?)

That is a topic for another thread… or for several other threads

 

[DanNCL]

Aren't the 'government' people taking decisions mainly the same rail professionals as would switch to GBR and take them there?
If rail professionals are taking the decisions they are less likely to favour a UK factory than a process involving wider government and politicians.

No, there aren’t any rail professionals at the DFT, just civil servants and a few politicians.

The people running GBR will be different, certainly more qualified to judge the quality of a bid than civil servants, but they’ll still be answerable to politicians so if the politicians tell them to only look at UK bids, that’s what they’ll do.

 

[dorsetdesiro]

It isn't completely dead, merely rebranded.

Aventra and Adessia both have the same number of letters and start and end in A

Maybe, Adessia would have a different design as the artist's impressions show Irish Rail's new Dublin DART+ commuter fleet have a "Stadler-like" more angular shaped ends instead of the rounder ends of Aventras. I expect Southeastern's new fleet to appear like this in some way if Derby does get the contract.

Or Aventra could possibly become "Adessia UK" like Siemens' Desiro UK due to UK railway infrastructure & requirements being completely different to mainland Europe & overseas, so the 350s for instance would look nothing like their Desiro counterparts in Europe.

On the other hand, Aventra as suggested would be filed away under Adessia then quietly phased out over time as Alstom would be keen to use a "single template" for flexibility for anywhere in the world as Greater Anglia's Stadler FLIRTs do resemble other FLIRTs in Europe.

 

[Meerkat]

No, there aren’t any rail professionals at the DFT, just civil servants and a few politicians.

The people running GBR will be different, certainly more qualified to judge the quality of a bid than civil servants, but they’ll still be answerable to politicians so if the politicians tell them to only look at UK bids, that’s what they’ll do.

Is those facts - ie inside knowledge?
Just seems that DfT spend vast amounts on consultants, who are presumably 'rail professionals' and would be applying for gigs at GBR if thats where the work goes.
It will be harder to make GBR go to UK factories if they are as independent as you seem to think they will be. GBR will have a budget and wont want to spend its money on keeping UK factories open; and if they are independent the instruction to do so would need to be more formal, which can be difficult within procurement law.

 

[DanNCL]

Is those facts - ie inside knowledge?
Just seems that DfT spend vast amounts on consultants, who are presumably 'rail professionals' and would be applying for gigs at GBR if thats where the work goes.
It will be harder to make GBR go to UK factories if they are as independent as you seem to think they will be. GBR will have a budget and wont want to spend its money on keeping UK factories open; and if they are independent the instruction to do so would need to be more formal, which can be difficult within procurement law.

You just said government so I presumed that to mean those permanently assigned to the DFT. Consultants are as you say consulted but pretty sure they’re not civil servants as such, rather freelance and/or hired through a consultancy firm - if they are civil servants then that’s the only government department where that’s the case.
So presumably, yes they could find work at GBR or whatever Labour eventually call it, but that’s not necessarily to say they will find work there.

 

[Trainman40083]

Is those facts - ie inside knowledge?
Just seems that DfT spend vast amounts on consultants, who are presumably 'rail professionals' and would be applying for gigs at GBR if thats where the work goes.
It will be harder to make GBR go to UK factories if they are as independent as you seem to think they will be. GBR will have a budget and wont want to spend its money on keeping UK factories open; and if they are independent the instruction to do so would need to be more formal, which can be difficult within procurement law.

Yes, indeed, Procurement law in public bodies such as Councils and Government can be very difficult. You can't just move the goal posts, if tenders (provided against very specific terms and conditions, and possible weighting, which might include Country of manufacture) don't give the answer you might want. Indeed, we probably saw that with the Thameslink order, and "corrected" with the CrossRail order. Like others, I have worked with that "restriction".

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

No, there aren’t any rail professionals at the DFT, just civil servants and a few politicians.
The people running GBR will be different, certainly more qualified to judge the quality of a bid than civil servants, but they’ll still be answerable to politicians so if the politicians tell them to only look at UK bids, that’s what they’ll do.

There are several rail professionals seconded to the DfT (Alex Hynes for one), and the IEP, HS2 stock and other DfT-led procurements had secondees and contractors from the rail industry to write the specifications.
They can always call on DOLR staff who are part of DfT, all of them being rail professionals.
The DfT/Treasury will retain final sign-off for significant railway spend, which includes new train fleets (and electrification).
GBR may have a bit more freedom/scope to specify new trains and lead procurement, but they won't be able to order what they like.
BR had lots of trouble getting approval for new trains, with frequent descoping and cost reduction to fit the funding available, and GBR won't be any different.
There will not be a "UK only" policy - for a start all the majors who own UK-production facilities are EU-based.

 

[RailWonderer]

Because we can build them to our requirements and not have to buy from abroad..

Abroad makes better trains. Derby’s trains have mostly felt shabby compared to their Germanic counterparts Siemens and Stadler, and Fiat’s Pendolinos. Bombardier Belgium did the Voyagers, which is why they are a premium build quality train.

 

[Nym]

Siemens and Stadler to a degree yes.
But under the skin Stadler is nowhere near as well built as some of the stuff from the UK (electrically at least) and Alstom Poland where the ICNG was made does suffer some of the same sistemic quality and cost cutting issues as Derby did/does.

 

[Dan G]

Abroad makes better trains. Derby’s trains have mostly felt shabby compared to their Germanic counterparts Siemens and Stadler, and Fiat’s Pendolinos. Bombardier Belgium did the Voyagers, which is why they are a premium build quality train.

Nonsense, there is nothing wrong with either Electrostar or Aventra.

The Voyagers were assembled in Wakefield. People seem to forget that bit. They run on pioneering BR-developed lightweight bogies too.

 

[JonathanH]

The Voyagers were assembled in Wakefield. People seem to forget that bit.

That should be preceded by "Some of". The others were assembled in Belgium.